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At least 37 records · Page 2

Automated Calibration of Parallel and Distributed Computing Simulators: A Case Study

Many parallel and distributed computing research results are obtained in simulation, using simulators that mimic real-world executions on some target system. Each such simulator is configured by picking values for parameters that define the behavior of the underlying simulation models it implements. The main concern for a simulator is accuracy: simulated behaviors should be as close as possible to those observed in the real-world target system. This requires that values for each of the simulator's parameters be carefully picked, or “calibrated,” based on ground-truth real-world executions. Examining the current state of the art shows that simulator calibration, at least in the field of parallel and distributed computing, is often undocumented (and thus perhaps often not performed) and, when documented, is described as a labor-intensive, manual process. In this work we evaluate the benefit of automating simulation calibration using simple algorithms. Specifically, we use a real-world case study from the field of High Energy Physics and compare automated calibration to calibration performed by a domain scientist. Our main finding is that automated calibration is on par with or significantly outperforms the calibration performed by the domain scientist. Furthermore, automated calibration makes it straightforward to operate desirable tradeoffs between simulation accuracy and simulation speed.

Mc donald, Jesse↗

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency and recovery dynamics during flash droughts: insights from observations and model simulations

Flash droughts (FD), rapidly emerging in a warming future, disrupt ecosystems, agriculture, and water security. Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE), the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to actual evapotranspiration (AET), balances carbon assimilation and water loss. FD rapidly disrupts this balance, making WUE critical for assessing plant stress and recovery. Here, this study investigates the dynamics of landscape-scale WUE, and the components of GPP and AET under FD utilizing both observed data from the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux site (US-MOz) and version 2 of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Earth, Energy, Exascale System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv2). Observations and simulations reveal GPP as dominant for WUE during earlier FD events (2005, 2007, 2012), shifting to AET in recent events (2014, 2018). This agreement indicates that the ELM can capture the shifting dynamics of GPP and AET in regulating WUE under FD conditions. However, the ELM systematically underestimates both GPP and AET and does so in a manner that does not preserve their ratio. As a result, WUE is also underestimated, suggesting that GPP is more strongly underestimated than AET. Furthermore, the ELM also underestimates the speed of GPP recovery, producing an artificially prolonged GPP recovery time following FD events. Observed environmental drivers such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and predawn leaf water potential (PLWP) effectively predict WUE, but ELM primarily highlights SM, underestimating VPD’s role. This study demonstrates that relying solely on soil moisture fails to capture the rapid hydraulic recovery observed in PLWP, underscoring the necessity of integrating plant hydraulics into land surface models to improve flash drought predictability.

Evapotranspiration↗

Improving thermodynamic nudging in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 2 (EAMv2): strategy and hindcast skills on weather systems

Nudging techniques are commonly employed to constrain atmospheric simulations toward observed states, facilitating model evaluation and sensitivity studies. However, if applied improperly – particularly to thermodynamic variables such as temperature and humidity – nudging can distort physical processes and introduce spurious biases, undermining the credibility of the simulations. This study presents an improved nudging implementation that applies vertically modulated tendencies to reduce adverse impacts on model physics. The framework is tested in version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (EAMv2) using a suite of hindcast simulations nudged toward ERA5 reanalysis. We systematically evaluate the individual and combined effects of nudging wind, temperature, and humidity fields on the model's ability to represent large-scale atmospheric states and high-impact weather systems. Results show that the revised strategy – particularly when nudging temperature and humidity at selected levels – enhances hindcast skill by improving agreement with ERA5 without degrading the hydrological cycle or precipitation processes. Additional improvements in surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, and precipitation biases are achieved through targeted nudging of land-surface variables. The proposed approach strengthens the representation of large-scale conditions relevant to tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extratropical cyclones in the low-resolution EAMv2. These findings demonstrate that carefully designed thermodynamic nudging, especially of temperature and humidity, improves the realism of constrained simulations and broadens the utility of nudged EAMv2 for atmospheric modeling, machine learning, and high-impact weather research.

Atmospheric river↗

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Process-Interactions in MCS Simulations Across Scales (Final Progress Report)

This project, funded by DOE Atmospheric System Research (DE-SC0020050), focused on improving the representation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in numerical weather and climate models by leveraging high-resolution observations from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The research aimed to evaluate model sensitivities to grid spacing, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, with a particular emphasis on improving convection parameterization for high-resolution modeling. Findings from this work highlight several key advancements. Model validation against ARM radar wind profiler data from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites revealed systematic biases in simulated convective mass flux profiles, leading to the development of an observationally constrained evaluation framework for diagnosing and improving model performance. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the representation of Amazonian MCSs was highly dependent on PBL scheme selection, while mid-latitude MCSs were more strongly influenced by microphysics parameterizations. A series of high-resolution WRF simulations, ranging from 4 km to 125 m grid spacing, provided insight into the behavior of convective drafts across scales. While updraft properties converged at sub-kilometer resolutions, biases in downdraft intensity persisted even at the finest resolution tested, emphasizing the need for further refinements in model physics. Additionally, comparisons of MCS vertical structures between mid-latitude and tropical environments revealed stronger updrafts and larger mass flux in mid-latitude MCSs, providing critical insights for improving climate model representations of storm-scale dynamics. The project’s findings have already contributed to advancing numerical modeling capabilities, particularly in WRF, MPAS, ICON, and DOE’s SCREAM model, by refining how convective processes are represented in high-resolution climate simulations. Results were disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and ARM/ASR Research Highlights, engaging the broader scientific community. The project also provided valuable training opportunities for two postdoctoral researchers, who played central roles in model development, analysis, and dissemination of results. Their work contributed to several publications and conference presentations, helping prepare them for careers in atmospheric modeling. By improving the simulation of MCSs, this research directly supports the development of next-generation climate models capable of more accurately representing extreme precipitation and convective processes. The insights gained will inform future improvements in convective parameterization and guide the design of high-resolution weather and climate simulations, ultimately enhancing the reliability of climate projections and weather forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MixPI: Mixed-time slicing path integral software for quantized molecular dynamics simulations

We introduce the MixPI software to implement path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations for the study of condensed phase systems where nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) are important. In contrast to existing PIMD simulation software, MixPI enables the implementation of mixed quantum–classical path integral simulations where only a subset of system degrees of freedom (dofs) are treated quantum mechanically in an extended phase space while the remaining dofs are described classically. We expect this software to be particularly useful for simulations of electron and proton transfer in condensed phase systems, as well as for the study of biological and material systems where only a handful of dofs contribute significantly to the observed NQEs. We demonstrate the use of MixPI in two different systems. The first is a simple water model where we implement a set of mixed quantum–classical simulations to compute average energy and radial distribution functions. We use these simulations to benchmark the effectiveness of MixPI and to demonstrate how it enables systematic investigation into the origin of observed NQEs. We then compute radial distribution functions for a system where MixPI is essential: a solvated metal (M 2+ ) cation described using an explicit quantized electron localized on an M 3+ ion in water.

chemical physics↗

Observationally constrained analysis on the distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate in global models

Nitrate plays an important role in the Earth system and air quality. A key challenge in simulating the life cycle of nitrate aerosol in global models is to accurately represent mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), along with Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) phase III models, in simulating spatial distribution of fine-mode nitrate, the mass size distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate, and the gas–aerosol partitioning between nitric acid gas and nitrate, using long-term ground-based observations and measurements from multiple aircraft campaigns. We find that most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 (particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm) nitrate surface concentration averaged over all sites. The observed nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 and PM 1 / PM 4 ratios are influenced by the relative contribution of fine sulfate or organic particles and coarse dust or sea salt particles. Overall, the ground-based observations give an annual mean surface nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio of 0.7. Most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio in all regions. There are large spreads in the modeled nitrate PM 1 / PM 4 ratios, which span the full range from 0 to 1. Most models underestimate the surface molar ratio of nitrate to total inorganic nitrate averaged across all sites. Our study indicates the importance of gas–aerosol partition parameterization and the simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating the mass size distribution of nitrate.

Nitrate↗

Simulating Meson Scattering on Spin Quantum Simulators

Studying high-energy collisions of composite particles, such as hadrons and nuclei, is an outstanding goal for quantum simulators. However, preparation of hadronic wave packets has posed a significant challenge, due to the complexity of hadrons and the precise structure of wave packets. This has limited demonstrations of hadron scattering on quantum simulators to date. Observations of confinement and composite excitations in quantum spin systems have opened up the possibility to explore scattering dynamics in spin models. In this article, we develop two methods to create entangled spin states corresponding to wave packets of composite particles in analog quantum simulators of Ising spin Hamiltonians. One wave-packet preparation method uses the blockade effect enabled by beyond-nearest-neighbor Ising spin interactions. The other method utilizes a quantum-bus-mediated exchange, such as the native spin-phonon coupling in trapped-ion arrays. With a focus on trapped-ion simulators, we numerically benchmark both methods and show that high-fidelity wave packets can be achieved in near-term experiments. We numerically study scattering of wave packets for experimentally realizable parameters in the Ising model and find inelastic-scattering regimes, corresponding to particle production in the scattering event, with prominent and distinct experimental signals. Our proposal, therefore, demonstrates the potential of observing inelastic scattering in near-term quantum simulators.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Represented in High Resolution E3SMv2 and Impact of New Cloud and Convection Parameterizations

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global hydrological cycle, general circulation, and radiative energy budget. In this study, we evaluate MCS simulations in the second version of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2). E3SMv2 atmosphere model (EAMv2) is run at the uniform 0.25? horizontal resolution. We track MCSs consistently in the model and observations using the PyFLEXTRKR algorithm, which defines MCS based on both cloud-top brightness temperature (Tb) and surface precipitation. Results from using Tb only to define MCS, commonly used in previous studies, are also discussed. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the impact of new cloud and convection parameterizations developed for EAMv3 on simulated MCSs. Our results show that EAMv2 simulated MCS precipitation is largely underestimated in the tropics and contiguous United States. This is mainly attributed to the underestimated precipitation intensity in EAMv2. In contrast, the simulated MCS frequency becomes more comparable to observations if MCSs are defined only based on cloud-top Tb. The Tb-based MCS tracking method, however, includes many cloud systems with very weak precipitation which conflicts with the MCS definition. This result illustrates the importance of accounting for precipitation in evaluating simulated MCSs. We also find that the new physics parameterizations help increase the relative contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation in the tropics, but the simulated MCS properties are generally not improved. This suggests that simulating MCSs will remain a challenge for the next version of E3SM.

Zhang, Meng↗

Hydrodynamic characterization of the coastal pioneer array ocean observing system

Ocean observation buoys require relatively small amounts of power, yet traditionally necessitate costly resupply trips for battery replacement. With the offshore location of the buoys and small power requirements, wave energy may be an effective solution for providing consistent and reliable power to support the buoy instrumentation. The US National Science Foundation Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) includes arrays of point absorber-like buoy systems used for ocean observation that have been deployed at multiple locations including the Southern Mid-Atlantic Bight. A study is currently underway to design a pitch resonator wave energy converter to supplement existing renewable energy generation for powering observation instrumentation. This paper details field measurements from surface moorings of the OOI Coastal Pioneer Array, which informs the subsequent development of a numerical model for the moored observation system. The model is developed in Wave Energy Converter Simulator (WEC-Sim), which leverages the Simscape multibody solver within the MATLAB/Simulink framework and linear potential flow theory to simulate the hydrodynamic interactions and multibody dynamics in 6 degrees of freedom. Multiple tuning variables are considered to produce a model for the system that matches well with empirical data (about 8% error). In conclusion, the WEC-Sim model will serve as a platform for integrating the pitch resonator wave energy converter concept and deployment preparation (detailed design including power take-off and control systems, response evaluation, etc.).

hydrodynamic modeling↗

Toward coherent quantum computation of scattering amplitudes with a measurement-based photonic quantum processor

In recent years, applications of quantum simulation have been developed to study the properties of strongly interacting theories. This has been driven by two factors: on the one hand, needs from theorists to have access to physical observables that are prohibitively difficult to study using classical computing; on the other hand, quantum hardware becoming increasingly reliable and scalable to larger systems. In this work, we discuss the feasibility of using quantum optical simulation for studying scattering observables that are presently inaccessible via lattice QCD and are at the core of the experimental program at Jefferson Laboratory, the future Electron-Ion Collider, and other accelerator facilities. We show that recent progress in measurement-based photonic quantum computing can be leveraged to provide deterministic generation of required exotic gates and implementation in a single photonic quantum processor. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape

Arctic warming is altering vegetation and carbon dynamics with global implications, yet Earth System Model (ESM) predictions in the Arctic remain highly uncertain, in part due to historically limited data for model parameterization and validation. As such, ESMs typically represent Arctic ecosystems in an oversimplified manner. Recently, nine plant functional types (PFTs) designed to realistically represent tundra vegetation were integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) and parameterized using plot-scale observations from a single site. Additional evaluation was needed to determine their transferability across the Arctic. Here, in this study, we evaluated whether refined representation of tundra vegetation improved model accuracy by conducting spatially explicit 100 × 100 m resolution ELM simulations on Alaska's Seward Peninsula. Simulations with the default two-PFT configuration and with the nine Arctic-specific PFTs were benchmarked against observations of net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and aboveground biomass from multiple data streams including an eddy covariance flux tower, flux chambers, and aircraft and unoccupied aerial system hyperspectral remote sensing. Evaluation revealed that Arctic-specific PFT simulations produced more realistic landscape-level carbon exchanges, and better captured observed heterogeneity in biomass and productivity, explaining 60%–70% of spatial variance (R 2 = 0.6–0.7) compared to just 12%–18% (R 2 = 0.12–0.18) with the default configuration. However, the refined model failed to reproduce observed aboveground biomass for highly productive alder-willow communities, requiring further evaluation of carbon allocation parameterizations for tall shrubs that are increasingly expanding across tundra landscapes. Our results demonstrate that enhanced representation of vegetation heterogeneity boosts predictive understanding of tundra carbon dynamics, facilitating regional to pan-Arctic model and remote-sensing scaling.

Murphy, Bailey A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

Comparison of CERES SYN1deg Radiative Fluxes with Those Derived from Observations at the ARM ENA Site

Profiles of radiative fluxes simulated from thermodynamic and cloud observations made at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site for a 6-yr period are termed as ENARad. ENARad radiative fluxes are compared to those from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) 1°-resolution synoptic product (SYN1deg)-simulated radiative flux profiles as well as the CERES instrument observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes and ground site broadband radiometer measurements. Monthly average differences between ENARad and surface radiometer reported fluxes and differences between ENARad, SYN1deg, and observed fluxes at TOA were statistically insignificant. SYN1deg significantly overestimated surface downwelling shortwave flux by 12 ± 52 W m −2 and surface downwelling longwave flux by 5 ± 20 W m −2 on monthly time scales. Such overestimations were traced to a moister and warmer subcloud layer, a drier cloud layer, and a moister and colder above-cloud-free troposphere in the ancillary thermodynamic and cloud properties used by SYN1deg than observed. Similarly, low-cloud coverage, boundaries, and liquid water paths utilized by SYN1deg were also significantly higher than observed. Intramodel differences in the hourly values of shortwave fluxes exceeded 100 W m−2 at the TOA and the surface. These differences were also due to inaccuracies in the representation of low-cloud properties within the SYN1deg product relative to those determined by ENA ARM instrumentation and used as ENARad ancillary data. Results presented are relevant to investigations employing the CERES SYN1deg data product, studies that estimate radiative fluxes from surface-based or satellite-borne observations, and comparative analyses of radiative fluxes derived using different methodological approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards utility-scale electronic structure with sample-based quantum bootstrap embedding

One of the main applications for which quantum computers are hoped to find utility is in simulating ground state energies and other observables of molecular chemical systems. The recently proposed sample-based diagonalization method is a readily implementable method for this task on current-day hardware using short circuit depths and has been demonstrated on as many as 85 qubits in recent studies. In this work, we combine the recently proposed quantum bootstrap embedding (QBE) method with sampled-based diagonalization (QBE-SQD) and present the first benchmarking study of the QBE method on real quantum hardware, ibm_pittsburgh, a Heron r3 processor with 156 qubits. Our test system is a hydrogen ring with 8 hydrogen atoms in the cc-pVDZ basis. We show that for this system, QBE-SQD using an active space of (8e, 19o) per fragment with a 43 qubit footprint produces a ground state energy accuracy which exceeds that of an SQD calculation with an (8e, 30o) active space with a 67 qubit footprint when using a comparable number of Slater determinants. This demonstrates that the use of quantum bootstrap embedding techniques is a promising path towards extending the capabilities of state-of-the-art quantum eigensolvers on near-term devices.

Bierman, Joel [North Carolina State University, Ra↗

Derivation of A Representative Elementary Volume (REV) for Upscaled Two-Phase Flow in Porous Media

Relative permeability plays an important role in the upscaling of multiphase flow in porous media from the pore scale to the Darcy scale. The entire concept of relative permeability is contingent on the existence of a representative elementary volume (REV). As we move to smaller samples to measure relative permeability, such as with digital core analysis, the concept of a classical REV has become increasingly unlikely when using the conventional approach to defining a representative volume. The “‘conventional”’ understanding of an REV is that a large enough volume must be considered such that spatial variability averages out. In digital rock methods, such as pore-scale simulations based on micro-computed tomography (CT) images, the domain size is typically 2 to 4 mm. This is approximately the length scale of a single-phase flow REV using the classic REV approach. However, the single-phase perspective does not consider the complex dynamics and fluctuations often observed in multiphase flow systems, even at centimeter-scale experiments and/or simulations. A fundamental question is, therefore, whether the domain size commonly used in digital rock simulations can provide a consistent energy budget such that the concept of relative permeability exists. Based on first principles, relative permeability accounts for the rate of energy dissipated in a stationary process. If the dynamics are fluctuating, the energy dissipated can vary but will average out over a long enough timescale. The key to determining the validity of the relative permeability is the timescale of the measurement, not the spatial scale. The conventional REV theory assumes that spatial, temporal, and ensemble averages are equivalent in an ergodic system, but it does not provide a way to test this assumption. We provide a formal way to identify the timescale where the relative permeability accurately captures energy dissipation as a way to validate relative permeability measurements and quantitatively assess their accuracy. This result will be tested for a practical SCAL test, determining how long a flow experiment needs to be run to accurately characterize the rate of energy dissipation by the flow. The outcome will be a best practice guide for the determination of relative permeability from core-scale experiments and/or digital core simulations that ensure the energy budget is fully accounted for in the relative permeability coefficient.

Mcclure, James [Virginia Tech, Blacksburg]↗

Cloud response to co-condensation of water and organic vapors over the boreal forest

Abstract. Accounting for the condensation of organic vapors along with water vapor (co-condensation) has been shown in adiabatic cloud parcel model (CPM) simulations to enhance the number of aerosol particles that activate to form cloud droplets. The boreal forest is an important source of biogenic organic vapors, but the role of these vapors in co-condensation has not been systematically investigated. In this work, the environmental conditions under which strong co-condensation-driven cloud droplet number enhancements would be expected over the boreal biome are identified. Recent measurement technology, specifically the Filter Inlet for Gases and AEROsols (FIGAERO) coupled to an iodide-adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometer (I-CIMS), is utilized to construct volatility distributions of the boreal atmospheric organics. Then, a suite of CPM simulations initialized with a comprehensive set of concurrent aerosol observations collected in the boreal forest of Finland during spring 2014 is performed. The degree to which co-condensation impacts droplet formation in the model is shown to be dependent on the initialization of temperature, relative humidity, updraft velocity, aerosol size distribution, organic vapor concentration, and the volatility distribution. The predicted median enhancements in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) due to accounting for the co-condensation of water and organics fall on average between 16 % and 22 %. This corresponds to activating particles 10–16 nm smaller in dry diameter that would otherwise remain as interstitial aerosol. The highest CDNC enhancements (ΔCDNC) are predicted in the presence of a nascent ultrafine aerosol mode with a geometric mean diameter of ∼ 40 nm and no clear Hoppel minimum, indicative of pristine environments with a source of ultrafine particles (e.g., via new particle formation processes). Such aerosol size distributions are observed 30 %–40 % of the time in the studied boreal forest environment in spring and fall when new particle formation frequency is the highest. To evaluate the frequencies with which such distributions are experienced by an Earth system model over the whole boreal biome, 5 years of UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations are further used. The frequencies are substantially lower than those observed at the boreal forest measurement site (< 6 % of the time), and the positive values, peaking in spring, are modeled only over Fennoscandia and the western parts of Siberia. Overall, the similarities in the size distributions between observed and modeled (UKESM1) are limited, which would limit the ability of this model, or any model with a similar aerosol representation, to project the climate relevance of co-condensation over the boreal forest. For the critical aerosol size distribution regime, ΔCDNC is shown to be sensitive to the concentrations of semi-volatile and some intermediate-volatility organic compounds (SVOCs and IVOCs), especially when the overall particle surface area is low. The magnitudes of ΔCDNC remain less affected by the more volatile vapors such as formic acid and extremely low- and low-volatility organic compounds (ELVOCs and LVOCs). The reasons for this are that most volatile organic vapors condense inefficiently due to their high volatility below the cloud base, and the concentrations of LVOCs and ELVOCs are too low to gain significant concentrations of soluble mass to reduce the critical supersaturations enough for droplet activation to occur. A reduction in the critical supersaturation caused by organic condensation emerges as the main driver of the modeled ΔCDNC. The results highlight the potential significance of co-condensation in pristine boreal environments close to sources of fresh ultrafine particles. For accurate predictions of co-condensation effects on CDNC, also in larger-scale models, an accurate representation of the aerosol size distribution is critical. Further studies targeted at finding observational evidence and constraints for co-condensation in the field are encouraged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SCILLA Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (SEMS) airborne data

The Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (SEMS) provides measurements of bulk aerosol size distributions, which are crucial for studying aerosol-cloud interactions. The instrument sampled through two different inlets: an isokinetic inlet and a counter-flow virtual impactor (CVI) inlet. Data were collected to help improve climate and earth systems models, characterize atmospheric conditions, and validate satellite observations and climate simulations.

Scanning Electrical Mobility Spectrometer↗

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗

Inertia Estimation Under High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources

Many types of renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind generation, are connected to the electric grid through power-electronic-based interfaces (inverters). These inverter-based resources (IBRs) are mechanically decoupled from the grid, which reduces system inertia and thus may compromise its stability and reliability. In this study, we examine the impact of high penetration of IBRs on the power grid’s inertia. To achieve this, we intentionally introduce disturbances into a simulation case study, such as a step load change, to observe and record the system’s frequency responses. This study offers a nuanced understanding of how the integration of IBRs affects grid stability, and it provides essential guidance for future grid management and resilience strategies.

Yadav, Ajay↗