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At least 37 records · Page 2

Enabling Marine Energy Integration for Ocean Observing: Functional Requirements

Marine renewable energy (i.e., wave, tidal or ocean current, thermal gradient, and salinity gradient) or MRE can revolutionize ocean observing capabilities. Five use cases representing a range of ocean observing platforms were developed based on end-user feedback. Drawing from these use cases, common needs or functional requirements were developed to help guide the integration of MRE power delivery for ocean observation structures and functions. The functional requirements were determined from descriptions of the use cases, specifications of hardware that are used or closely associated with existing ocean observation platforms, and direct feedback from ocean observation sensor/platform developers and users. Twenty types of functional requirements were identified, including those associated with power and energy use; physical system requirements; temperature and depth; electrical, acoustic, and motion interference; and reliability. Each set of functional requirements is illustrated as features of the use cases. By defining functional requirements for MRE technology integration in ocean observing platforms, and focusing on end-user requirements, barriers to developing MRE-driven ocean observation missions can be reduced.

Cavagnaro, Robert J.↗

Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades

The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Finally, potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Typological representation of the offshore oceanographic environment along the Alaskan North Slope

Erosion and flooding impacts to Arctic coastal environments are intensifying with nearshore oceanographic conditions acting as a key environmental driver. Robust and comprehensive assessment of the nearshore oceanographic conditions require knowledge of the following boundary conditions: incident wave energy, water level, incident wind energy, ocean temperature and salinity, bathymetry, and shoreline orientation. The number of offshore oceanographic boundary conditions can be large, requiring a significant computational investment to reproduce nearshore conditions. This present study develops location-independent typologies to reduce the number of boundary conditions needed to assess nearshore oceanographic environments in both a Historical (2007–2019) and Future (2020–2040) timespan along the Alaskan North Slope. We used WAVEWATCH III® and Delft3D Flexible Mesh model output from six oceanographic sites located along a constant ~50 m bathymetric line spanning the Chukchi to Beaufort Seas. K-means clustering was applied to the energy-weighted joint-probability distribution of significant wave height (H s ) and peak period (T p ). Distributions of wave and wind direction, wind speed, and water level associated with location-independent centroids were assigned single values to describe a reduced order, typological rendition of offshore oceanographic conditions. Reanalysis data (e.g., ASRv2, ERA5, and GOFS) grounded the historical simulations while projected conditions were obtained from downscaled GFDL-CM3 forced under RCP8.5 conditions. Location-dependence for each site is established through the occurrence joint-probability distribution in the form of unique scaling factors representing the fraction of time that the typology would occupy over a representative year. As anticipated, these typologies show increasingly energetic ocean conditions in the future. They also enable computationally efficient simulation of the nearshore oceanographic environment along the North Slope of Alaska for better characterization of coastal processes (e.g., erosion, flooding, or sediment transport).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

Abstract The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content ( $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ( $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling $$\hbox {CO}_{{2}}$$ CO 2 . Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ and $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expert Elicitation for Wave Energy LCOE Futures

As the world faces increasing threats from climate change, the importance of developing renewable energy technologies and reducing their costs have similarly increased. Marine energy technologies (which include wave, tidal, ocean current, ocean thermal and salinity gradient resources) are often referred to as the most nascent and newest suite of renewable technologies under development. There are vast marine energy resources available around the world and within U.S. territorial waters, and as the technologies have continued to develop, the long-term trajectory of cost reductions and performance improvements is of particular interest. This study specifically investigates the long-term cost reduction potential for commercial wave energy technologies, as wave energy represents the largest marine energy resource available to the continental U.S. Similar studies focused on other resources and technologies may follow in the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections

Climate model projections have previously been used to compute ice shelf basal melt rates in ice sheet models, but the strategies employed – e.g., ocean input, parameterization, calibration technique, and corrections – have varied widely and are often ad hoc. Here, a methodology is proposed for the calculation of circum-Antarctic basal melt rates for floating ice, based on climate models, that is suitable for ISMIP6, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The past and future evolution of ocean temperature and salinity is derived from a climate model by estimating anomalies with respect to the modern day, which are added to a present-day climatology constructed from existing observational datasets. Temperature and salinity are extrapolated to any position potentially occupied by a simulated ice shelf. A simple formulation is proposed for a basal melt parameterization in ISMIP6, constrained by the observed temperature climatology, with a quadratic dependency on either the nonlocal or local thermal forcing. Two calibration methods are proposed: (1) based on the mean Antarctic melt rate (MeanAnt) and (2) based on melt rates near Pine Island's deep grounding line (PIGL). Future Antarctic mean melt rates are an order of magnitude greater in PIGL than in MeanAnt. The PIGL calibration and the local parameterization result in more realistic melt rates near grounding lines. PIGL is also more consistent with observations of interannual melt rate variability underneath Pine Island and Dotson ice shelves. This work stresses the need for more physics and less calibration in the parameterizations and for more observations of hydrographic properties and melt rates at interannual and decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans

Abstract Changes in ocean heat content (OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. According to IAP/CAS data, the 0–2000 m OHC in 2022 exceeded that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10 21 Joules); and according to NCEI/NOAA data, by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ. Among seven regions, four basins (the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans) recorded their highest OHC since the 1950s. The salinity-contrast index, a quantification of the “salty gets saltier—fresh gets fresher” pattern, also reached its highest level on record in 2022, implying continued amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Regional OHC and salinity changes in 2022 were dominated by a strong La Niña event. Global upper-ocean stratification continued its increasing trend and was among the top seven in 2022.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

The Role of Tropical Cyclone—Ocean Interactions in Future Changes in Hurricane Katrina

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and precipitation are projected to increase in the future. However, some projections are based on atmosphere‐only models in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed, whereas projections based on global atmosphere‐ocean coupled models can be subject to long‐term ocean biases. We investigated the role of TC‐ocean interactions in future changes in TC intensity and precipitation in Hurricane Katrina. We performed four‐member ensembles using convection‐permitting atmosphere‐only and atmosphere‐ocean regional models for the historical climate and four future climates. We found that although future TC intensity and precipitation increased regardless of ocean coupling, ocean coupling dampened the future minimum sea‐level pressure decrease by half and amplified future precipitation scaling. Compared to future changes in upper‐ocean temperature, changes in salinity contributed little to future changes in TC intensity. This study highlights the importance of considering TC‐ocean interactions to reduce uncertainty in the magnitude of future TC intensity and precipitation projections.

climate change↗

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols

Abstract The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) shows contrasting responses in two sensitivity experiments with increased stratospheric aerosols, offering insight into the physical processes that may impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a warmer climate. In one, the upper ocean becomes warm and salty, but in the other it becomes cold and fresh. The changes are accompanied by diverging AMOC responses. The first experiment strengthens the AMOC, opposing the weakening trend in the reference simulation. The second experiment shows a much smaller impact. Both simulations use the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model component (CESM-WACCM) but differ in model versions and stratospheric aerosol specifications. Despite both experiments using similar approaches to increase stratospheric aerosols to counteract the rising global temperature, the contrasting SPNA and AMOC responses indicate a considerable dependency on model physics, climate states, and model responses to forcings. This study focuses on examining the physical processes involved with the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the SPNA salinity changes and their potential connections with the AMOC and the Arctic. We find that in both cases, increased stratospheric aerosols act to enhance the SPNA upper-ocean salinity by reducing freshwater export from the Arctic, which is closely tied to the Arctic sea ice changes. The impact on AMOC is primarily through the thermal component of the surface buoyancy fluxes, with negligible contributions from the freshwater component. These experiments shed light on the physical processes that dictate the important connections between the SPNA, the Arctic, the AMOC, and their subsequent feedbacks on the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exponential time differencing for the tracer equations appearing in primitive equation ocean models

The tracer equations are part of the primitive equations used in ocean modeling and describe the transport of tracers, such as temperature, salinity or chemicals, in the ocean. Depending on the number of tracers considered, several equations may be added to and coupled to the dynamics system. In many relevant situations, the time-step requirements of explicit methods imposed by the transport and mixing in the vertical direction are more restrictive than those for the horizontal, and this may cause the need to use very small time steps if a fully explicit method is employed. To overcome this issue, we propose an exponential time differencing (ETD) solver where the vertical terms (transport and diffusion) are treated with a matrix exponential, whereas the horizontal terms are dealt with in an explicit way. In this work, we investigate numerically the computational speed-ups that can be obtained over other semi-implicit methods, and we analyze the advantages of the method in the case of multiple tracers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Critical Knowledge Gaps for Coastal Systems: Research Priorities for Coastal Regions of the Southeastern United States

Coastal watersheds and shorelines are home to 52% of the U.S. population and provide trillions of dollars of economic and ecosystem services each year. However, these regions are subject to increasing frequency and intensity of compounding hazards that generate substantial damages. Sea level rise is increasing flooding and salinization of low-lying areas; periodic storm surges push ocean water farther inland and increase salinity in freshwater resources. Changing weather patterns, water management, and land cover all affect water and sediment flow to the coast in ways that exacerbate extreme flooding and drought. These impacts eventually drive systems past tipping points and lead to rapid and often irreversible transformation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of the Beaufort Gyre Freshwater Content in 2003–2018

Abstract Hydrographic data collected from research cruises, bottom‐anchored moorings, drifting Ice‐Tethered Profilers, and satellite altimetry in the Beaufort Gyre region of the Arctic Ocean document an increase of more than 6,400 km 3 of liquid freshwater content from 2003 to 2018: a 40% growth relative to the climatology of the 1970s. This fresh water accumulation is shown to result from persistent anticyclonic atmospheric wind forcing (1997–2018) accompanied by sea ice melt, a wind‐forced redirection of Mackenzie River discharge from predominantly eastward to westward flow, and a contribution of low salinity waters of Pacific Ocean origin via Bering Strait. Despite significant uncertainties in the different observations, this study has demonstrated the synergistic value of having multiple diverse datasets to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of Beaufort Gyre freshwater content variability. For example, Beaufort Gyre Observational System (BGOS) surveys clearly show the interannual increase in freshwater content, but without satellite or Ice‐Tethered Profiler measurements, it is not possible to resolve the seasonal cycle of freshwater content, which in fact is larger than the year‐to‐year variability, or the more subtle interannual variations.

Arctic Ocean↗

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2024 OES-Environmental 2024 State of the Science Report, Chapter 10: Potential Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy in Tropical and Subtropical Ecosystems

Marine renewable energy (MRE), such as wave, tidal, ocean current, and thermal and salinity gradient, is under development in many parts of the world. However, studies examining the environmental effects of MRE have primarily focused on deployments in temperate regions and countries in the Northern Hemisphere. As MRE development expands into tropical and subtropical countries (between 35°N and 35°S), there is a need to examine the potential environmental effects specific to these regions and their unique habitats and species. Unlike temperate regions where wave and tidal energy resources dominate, tropical and subtropical regions can leverage five different types of MRE: wave energy, tidal energy, ocean current energy, ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), and salinity gradient energy.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 7: Changes in Oceanographic Systems Associated with Marine Renewable Energy Devices

Oceanographic processes define the marine environment: the flow of water determines the concentrations of dissolved gases and nutrients, transports sediments, and maintains the habitats and water quality that support marine organisms and healthy ecosystems. Important physical processes in the ocean include, but are not limited to, tidal circulation and basin flushing, wave action, local and basin-scale ocean currents, temperature and salinity gradients, sediment transport forming and shaping coastlines, and the exchange of heat and dissolved gases at the air-water interface. Harnessing energy with marine renewable energy (MRE) devices has the potential to affect these processes in both the nearfield (within a few device lengths) and the farfield (farther from the device, from the scale of multiple devices to the scale of an enclosed basin) by removing energy from the system, changing natural flow patterns around devices, and/or decreasing wave heights. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-7-oceanographic-systems

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Global Technical, Economic, and Feasible Potential of Renewable Electricity

Renewable electricity generation will need to be rapidly scaled to address climate change and other environmental challenges. Doing so effectively will require an understanding of resource availability. We review estimates for renewable electricity of the global technical potential, defined as the amount of electricity that could be produced with current technologies when accounting for geographical and technical limitations as well as conversion efficiencies; economic potential, which also includes cost; and feasible potential, which accounts for societal and environmental constraints. We consider utility-scale and rooftop solar photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind, hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean (wave, tidal, ocean thermal energy conversion, and salinity gradient energy) technologies. We find that the reported technical potential for each energy resource ranges over several orders of magnitude across and often within technologies. Therefore, we also discuss the main factors explaining why authors find such different results. According to this review and on the basis of the most robust studies, we find that technical potentials for utility-scale solar photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore wind, and offshore wind are above 100 PWh/year. Hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean thermal energy conversion have technical potentials above 10 PWh/year. Rooftop solar photovoltaic, wave, and tidal have technical potentials above 1 PWh/year. Salinity gradient has a technical potential above 0.1 PWh/year. The literature assessing the global economic potential of renewables, which considers the cost of each renewable resource, shows that the economic potential is higher than current and near-future electricity demand. Fewer studies have calculated the global feasible potential, which considers societal and environmental constraints. While these ranges are useful for assessing the magnitude of available energy sources, they may omit challenges for large-scale renewable portfolios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modulation of regional carbon uptake by AMOC and alkalinity changes in the subpolar North Atlantic under a warming climate

The slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated consequences on ocean carbon uptake could have large implications for the Earth's climate system and its global carbon cycle. This study analyzes ten Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reveals that the regional carbon uptake in the subpolar North Atlantic under a high CO 2 emission scenario moderately correlates with the decline in AMOC at 40°N. AMOC transports warm and salty subtropical waters to the subpolar regions. Models with stronger AMOC slowdown generally exhibit weaker surface warming and larger decline of surface salinity and alkalinity. We consider two plausible mechanisms linking the AMOC slowdown to the decline of regional CO 2 uptake: the reduction in surface alkalinity and diminished subduction. The decline of surface salinity and alkalinity reduces the ocean's capacity to buffer acids leading to a reduced CO 2 uptake. This important contribution is unique to the North Atlantic. Diminished convective mixing and subduction of surface water can further decrease the downward transport of anthropogenic carbon, as also shown in previous research. The centennial trends of p CO 2 are decomposed into four components driven by temperature, salinity, alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon, revealing that alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon are both significant contributors. The alkalinity-driven p CO 2 essentially follows surface salinity, establishing the linkage between AMOC slowdown and alkalinity decline. Our results indicate that alkalinity changes are important for the interplay between AMOC and the regional carbon sequestration ability across the late 20 th and the entirety of the 21 st century in the subpolar North Atlantic.

AMOC↗

Ocean Energy for Ocean Worlds

Energy systems generating power from ocean waves, currents, tides, and thermal and salinity gradients are being developed to power oceanographic instrumentation and autonomous vehicles in Earth’s oceans. Exploration missions enabled or extended with in-situ energy harvesting on Earth may be similar to those on extra-terrestrial ocean worlds including mapping, biogeochemical sampling, acoustic monitoring, search for building blocks of life, and physical oceanographic characterization. With the addition of ocean energy available at the point of observation, data can be collected on larger spatial and temporal scales, enabling more comprehensive missions on other worlds. Power resource characteristics (e.g. current speed, variability) will similarly need to be assessed. Earth and extra-terrestrial ocean missions share vast technical challenges including high expense, need for advanced autonomy, ability to survive in the harshest environments, and limited communications or opportunities for intervention. Marine energy systems may be the only option for in-situ generation in certain scenarios (e.g., under a thick layer of ice) or advantageous over onboard energy storage options that may interfere with the natural environment (e.g., radioisotope thermoelectric generators). This work provides an overview of existing marine energy technology pertaining to ocean observations, highlights emerging research and development and new funding and program initiatives, explores similarities in mission requirements between terrestrial and extra-terrestrial applications, and suggests innovation pathways towards enabling high-value ocean world exploration powered by ocean energy.

Cavagnaro, Robert J.↗