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Inputs to GCAM-USA: IM3 Phase 2 Experiments

Overview This dataset contains XML input files for the IM3 Phase 2 version of GCAM-USA. The files are organized into two categories: Scenario-specific inputs represent hydroclimate and socioeconomic effects on water availability, heating and cooling degree-hours, and agricultural productivity. They support eight IM3 canonical scenarios: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Model-improvement inputs extend GCAM-USA v5.3 with updated representations of coal and nuclear power plant retirements, electricity trade among U.S. interconnections, offshore carbon storage costs, and groundwater depletion constraints. Data structure Scenario-specific inputs rcp45_runoff/ and rcp85_runoff/XML files describing water availability by HUC2 basin under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. rcp45_hdcd/ and rcp85_hdcd/XML files containing monthly-day and monthly-night heating and cooling degree-hours at the U.S. state level for different RCP-SSP combinations. rcp45_agyields/ and rcp85_agyields/XML files describing changes in agricultural productivity at the intersection of GCAM regions and HUC2 water basins for different RCP-SSP combinations. rcp45_emissions_pathway/The emissions-constraint XML file used to represent the RCP 4.5 pathway. Model-improvement inputs core_retire/Updates coal-fired power plant retirement schedules based on New England ISO. GCAMUSA_IM3_elec_trade_interconnect.xmlRestricts electricity trade to occur within the ERCOT, WECC, and IE interconnections. nuclear_USA.xmlUpdates the retirement schedules of the Diablo Canyon and Palisades nuclear power plants. high_cost_offshore_carbon.xmlUpdates the assumed cost of offshore carbon storage. water_supply_constrained_gleeson_5pct.xmlReplaces WaterGAP historical groundwater-depletion estimates with data from the Gleeson dataset and limits groundwater extraction to 5% of the available groundwater in each Superwell grid cell. How to use the data This dataset is designed for use with the IM3 version of GCAM-USA. Download or clone GCAM-USA from the IM3 GCAM GitHub repository at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/gcam-core and check out the gcam-usa-im3 branch. Place the downloaded folder im3scenarios in the gcam-core/input directory while preserving the provided folder structure.

Energy↗

Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of Mexico

Groundbreaking for geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects in the offshore Gulf of Mexico is imminent, and there is great interest in utilizing this region for GCS projects. Offshore saline reservoirs provide a significant and accessible resource for GCS. However, conducting GCS in the offshore environment will pose distinct challenges pertaining to site selection, operations, infrastructure use, and monitoring compared to operating onshore that ultimately affect technoeconomic assessment of offshore GCS projects. Carbon storage and transport costs are critical to project developers looking to deploy carbon storage in the offshore environment. We present CO2_S_COM_Offshore, a model developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) as a screening-level offshore saline GCS cost modeling tool. Based on NETL’s widely used CO2_S_COM cost model for onshore saline CS, CO2_S_COM_Offshore enables technoeconomic analysis of GCS in offshore areas. This model comprehensively incorporates multiple facets of offshore GCS projects, from regional evaluation and site selection to permitting, transport, operations, monitoring, site closure, and decommissioning. In general, the model can explore the cost implications for potential offshore GCS project(s) by enabling the user to change several project operational and financial attribute configurations. Key inputs include offshore storage formation options, CO2 injection rate and duration, infrastructure types, monitoring intensity, project financing, and post-injection site care duration. Supporting cost algorithms within CO2_S_COM_Offshore were compiled utilizing S&P Global’ s QUE$TORTM cost estimation software alongside a variety of open-source scientific literature. In addition to reviewing key model components, we discuss several sensitivity analyses, input variabilities, and results on analysis of break-even CO2 price required by a project based on different regulation/policy and operational scenarios for the offshore Gulf of Mexico. These results indicate the value of modeling offshore GCS specifically, and the potential of offshore GCS within a decarbonization value chain. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗

Quantitative Biostratigraphic Analysis and Age Estimates of Middle Cretaceous Sequences in The Baltimore Canyon Trough, Offshore Mid-Atlantic U.S. Margin

ABSTRACT We applied quantitative methods to previously published biostratigraphic data from the Baltimore Canyon Trough (offshore of the Mid-Atlantic U.S.A.) to provide an improved chronostratigraphic framework for Cretaceous sequences. Here, we successfully used graphic correlation of 228 planktonic foraminifera, nannofossil, and palynological events spanning 22 wells to define assemblage and interval zones as well as major paleoenvironmental changes in the Dawson Canyon, Logan Canyon (three sequences), and Missisauga Formations (two sequences, undifferentiated here). Ranking and scaling techniques were not successful because of the of the limited number of usable biostratigraphic markers. The ages of the sequences previously identified using well logs and seismic profiles were temporally constrained based on chronostratigraphically significant biostratigraphic markers that we identified: the late Cenomanian to Turonian DCx sequence (Rotalipora cushmani and Thalmanninella greenhornensis); the early Cenomanian LC1 sequence; the middle and late Albian LC2 sequence (Braarudosphaera africana, Planomalina buxtorfi, and Spinidinium vestitum); the late Aptian LC3 sequence (Cyclonephelium tabulatum); and the early Aptian to Barremian Missisauga sequences (Aptea anaphrissa, Pseudoceratium pelliferum, and Muderongia simplex). These five biostratigraphic associations are correlated with six prominent seismic reflectors and sequence boundaries that can be traced across the basin. Duration of hiatuses associated with these sequence boundaries are uncertain, though our Monte Carlo analysis allows extraction of age estimates from broad and sometimes contradictory ranges and suggests correlation of hiatuses with global sea-level falls. Together, these seismic and biostratigraphic interpretations can be applied (1) to evaluate reservoir continuity and the viability of offshore carbon storage reservoirs in the Baltimore Canyon Trough, (2) to better define the tectonostratigraphic evolution of the basin, and (3) to contribute to the understanding of regional and global variations in Cretaceous sea level.

Paleontology↗

Carbon storage cost modeling for the offshore Gulf of America

At the 2025 Annual University of Houston ROICE Workshop, Dr. Chung Shih delivered an invited talk titled "Carbon Storage Cost Modeling for the Offshore Gulf of America." This presentation highlighted the capabilities of NETL's offshore saline carbon storage cost model (CO2_S_COM_Offshore) in evaluating the economics of both new and reused storage infrastructure. While primarily intended for screening-level analysis, the model comprehensively considers critical components such as onshore facilities, pipelines connecting shore to offshore platforms, main platforms, and satellite platforms. Additionally, its integrated cashflow model encompasses the entire project lifecycle, from initial site screening to post-injection site care, providing users with a thorough understanding of how various operational or financial parameters impact project economics.

cost modeling↗

FECM/NETL Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model Version 1 – QuickStart Guide

The purpose of this QuickStart is to assist users in operating the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management/National Energy Technology Laboratory (FECM/NETL) Offshore Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM_Offshore) Version 1. This manual outlines the major outputs, provides an overview of how the outputs are calculated, and provides a more detailed understanding of how a user can edit the inputs to affect outputs for the purpose of evaluating a storage project aimed for conducting operations in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) of the Gulf of America (GOA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating offshore legacy wells for geologic carbon storage: A case study from the Galveston and Brazos areas in the Gulf of Mexico

In this article, federal offshore waters in the Gulf of Mexico are of interest for large-scale geologic carbon storage (GCS). However, more than 80,000 offshore oil and gas wells exist in the region, which could impact the integrity of sealing intervals. In this study, we propose a screening methodology for ranking offshore legacy wells based on the challenge they may present to GCS. The methodology relies on the review of well regulatory records to 1) identify leakage pathways and assess the potential hazards that wells pose to planned GCS operations, 2) evaluate well features that impact the accessibility of wells to determine the feasibility of potential corrective actions, and 3) rank wells based on the overall challenge they may pose for GCS. We demonstrate our framework by evaluating the construction and abandonment of 156 wells across eight areas of interest (AOIs) in shallow federal waters along the Texas Gulf Coast. The majority (99.3 %) of wells considered were constructed and plugged in a manner that did not isolate prospective GCS targets in the Upper and Lower Miocene formations and may potentially require a challenging or uncertain corrective action prior to GCS. Dataset trends suggest that the observed well construction and plugging designs may be common in shallow offshore federal waters along the Texas Gulf Coast. Consequently, operators pursuing offshore GCS projects in the region may consider selecting areas that avoid challenging wells or performing robust evaluations of legacy well leakage risks to plan corrective action prior to CO 2 injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

From carbon to climate action: harnessing basalt for geological carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage onshore and offshore

Abating emissions and reducing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are crucial in avoiding catastrophic climate change. Basalt reservoirs offer suitable CO 2 storage sites and are present onshore and offshore. This study compares the geological, economic and social aspects of CO 2 storage in both domains using two basalt formations from the Republic of Ireland: the Limerick Igneous Suite and the Druid Formation. Offshore reservoirs offer larger storage resources but are more expensive to develop. Nevertheless, both offer gigatonne-scale theoretical CO 2 storage. Reviewing public perception studies on wind energy demonstrates that the commonly held belief that offshore projects face less opposition owing to their distance from communities has been dispelled, while similar studies on carbon capture and removal show no preference for onshore or offshore development. Instead, a general scepticism towards carbon removal is observed, with concerns that it hinders broader decarbonization efforts. The desire of all stakeholders to be involved throughout project development is consistently observed. Lessons from offshore natural gas projects highlight the consequences of failing to engage with local communities. The Republic of Ireland has significant potential to deploy geological CO 2 storage in basalt reservoirs, but policy hurdles such as legal limits on storage volumes must be overcome to reconcile climate ambition and legislative capacity.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

How an Autonomous Offshore Power System Can Transform the Ocean Economy - A Hypothetical Case Study Utilizing an Autonomous Offshore Power System in Northern Lights Carbon Capture and Storage Project

An Autonomous Offshore Power System (AOPS) provides in-situ power, energy storage, real-time data and communications support, asset management, and other capabilities at sea. It has applications for all offshore industries: energy, defense and security, aquaculture, science and research, and communications. Furthermore, this paper highlights how an AOPS can reduce cost, complexity, and carbon-intensity for existing offshore operations and enable new capabilities for offshore industry leaders. This new AOPS technology has two primary advantages. First, it unlocks the autonomous, electric future of the ocean economy via ‘local’ power generation and energy storage, in addition to real-time connection to the data cloud. Second, it helps enable a material change in the global energy mix through cost-effective, reliable generation and storage technology for use cases including mobile/static data-gathering and reporting systems, operating equipment, and charging networks for uncrewed surface vessels. AOPS technology will help transform the ocean economy, and thus has implications for offshore industry leaders as they push to reduce costs today and make an autonomous and decarbonized future possible.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Monitoring Offshore CO 2 Sequestration Using Marine CSEM Methods; Constraints Inferred from Field- and Laboratory-Based Gas Hydrate Studies

Offshore geological sequestration of CO 2 offers a viable approach for reducing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Strategies include injection of CO 2 into the deep-ocean or ocean-floor sediments, whereby depending on pressure–temperature conditions, CO 2 can be trapped physically, gravitationally, or converted to CO 2 hydrate. Energy-driven research continues to also advance CO 2 -for-CH 4 replacement strategies in the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), producing methane for natural gas needs while sequestering CO 2 . In all cases, safe storage of CO 2 requires reliable monitoring of the targeted CO 2 injection sites and the integrity of the repository over time, including possible leakage. Electromagnetic technologies used for oil and gas exploration, sensitive to electrical conductivity, have long been considered an optimal monitoring method, as CO 2 , similar to hydrocarbons, typically exhibits lower conductivity than the surrounding medium. We apply 3D controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) forward modeling code to simulate an evolving CO 2 reservoir in deep-ocean sediments, demonstrating sufficient sensitivity and resolution of CSEM data to detect reservoir changes even before sophisticated inversion of data. Laboratory measurements place further constraints on evaluating certain systems within the GHSZ; notably, CO 2 hydrate is measurably weaker than methane hydrate, and >1 order of magnitude more conductive, properties that may affect site selection, stability, and modeling considerations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing reservoir performance for geologic carbon sequestration in offshore saline reservoirs

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technological strategy to reduce CO 2 emissions from hydrocarbon-based energy production and non-energy industrial emitters, like fertilizer and cement production. To expand the geographic opportunities for CCS, offshore geologic settings are increasingly considered for saline CO 2 storage, particularly where legacy oil and gas infrastructure may be repurposed for CO 2 transport and injection. In this context, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), United States (U.S.), may offer tremendous opportunity for CCS because the surrounding states are among the largest CO 2 producers in the U.S. and there has been extensive oil and gas development over the last half century. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty in how GoM reservoir/seal systems will respond to industrial-scale CO 2 injections, particularly in the context of meso-scale (1–10s of meters) permeability variations that are difficult to identify prior to injection. Such permeability variations can have significant impacts on CO 2 migration and fluid pressure propagation, both of which govern the overall effectiveness of the CCS project. This research uses ensemble simulation methods to quantify the influence of spatially variable and a priori unknown permeability fields on CO 2 plume development and fluid pressure propagation when CO 2 is injected at 1 MMt per year for ten years. Results show a number of characteristic patterns that reveal the substantial influence of both near- and far-field permeability on reservoir performance. By focusing on basin characteristics that are common among offshore basins worldwide, results from this study suggest that offshore CCS may be a feasible carbon management strategy in regions where offshore basins are proximal to industrial CO 2 sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mapping existing wellbore locations to compare technical risks between onshore and offshore CCS activities in Texas

Carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage (CCS; geologic sequestration) is a promising technology for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere from industrial point sources. Aspects of CCS have been investigated for over two decades, and many large- and small-scale geologic storage field demonstration projects are now underway globally. Interest in offshore CCS has been increasing in recent years (e.g., European Union, Australia, Japan, and the United States). Deep geologic storage in offshore settings is analogous to onshore CCS activities in many respects (i.e., geologic and geotechnical aspects), but is distinct from previously explored seabed sediment CO 2 storage) or deep marine dissolution). Given the large subsurface geologic storage volumes available in offshore settings, much discussion of offshore CCS is focused on the benefits and risks of such activity compared to onshore settings. Similar to onshore settings, existing (legacy) wells likely present the most direct migration pathway and largest risk of noncontainment in offshore settings. As part of current studies to evaluate geologic storage options in offshore settings along the Texas coast and greater Gulf of Mexico (GoM), mapping of the geographic distribution and ages of wells in a region containing coastal counties and extending 30 miles offshore Texas indicates that both well spatial density and well age decrease moving from onshore to offshore. Results suggest reduced risk of leakage owing to more rigorous and documented well completion and abandonment practices for these generally younger wells (although many are decades old). A result of decreased well density is that larger areas are available for leasing for CCS projects that avoid legacy wells altogether (> 1 mile from any existing well). The one-mile designation is used as an arbitrary convention, and while it is recognized that this is smaller than a typical area of review (AoR) for permitting, each site will have a different AoR radius for consideration. Finally, the combination of large subsurface storage volumes under control of a single landowner and reduced risks from legacy wells makes offshore CCS attractive in the GoM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Regional Geology Capstone Report for the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (Volume V)

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The MRCSP regional geology Capstone report summarizes the regional characterization of geologic storage subtasks performed under MRCSP Phase III. The regional characterization work was completed by the state geological surveys of Delaware, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia along with Western Michigan University and Rutgers University. Building on the Phases I and II, the Phase III research was focused on key research topics identified in previous MRCSP efforts: [1] Regional Geologic Cross Sections for Potential Storage and Containment Zones; [2] Appalachian Basin: Enhanced Recovery Opportunities; [3] Michigan Basin: Assessment of Enhanced Oil Recovery Using Carbon Dioxide in Silurian Pinnacle Reefs; [4] Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain and Adjacent Offshore Region: Characterization of Carbon Storage Targets; [5] Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates; [6] Upper Silurian to Middle Devonian Strata of Ohio: Structural Characterization of Potential CO 2 Reservoirs and Adjacent Strata; [7] Triassic Rift Basins: Preliminary Study of Long-Term CO 2 Storage Potential Together, the regional characterization effort developed useful products to support project developers, policy makers and other stakeholders in the MRCSP region seeking to understand where potential storage exists relative to large stationary sources of CO 2 emissions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Prospective Seal Name Catalog for U.S. Sedimentary Basins V1.0

The Prospective Seal Name Catalog for U.S. Sedimentary Basins V1.0 is an aggregation of prospective seal units for prospective storage resources within the USA for geologic carbon storage in both onshore and offshore basins. The catalog is intended to guide users to available literature and data resources. Prospective seal names are displayed with respect to the associated prospective storage resource target, for which the specified prospective seal may act as a confining layer for CO2 storage. A prospective seal unit’s lithology, position with respect to the reservoir (Primary, Secondary, Intraformational, etc.), and age (Geologic Period) are included when stated in the original literature or data resource. The information source for each record in the catalog includes the published citation, year of publication, resource type (Journal Article, Event Proceedings, etc.) and additional record notes.

Basin↗