An Onshore Deployment of Advanced Dual-Doppler Radar for Wind Energy Applications
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Hirth, B D↗
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Estimating Uncertainties from Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements of Onshore Wind Plants Using LES
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Brown, K.↗
Onshore U.S. Carbon Pipeline Deployment: Siting, Safety, and Regulation
Carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology has significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change, particularly in hard-to-decarbonize industrial and commercial sectors. Unless utilization or storage occurs at the same location as carbon capture, which is rare, carbon must be transported from a point source to a utilization or storage site. Pipelines offer significant advantages for large-scale transportation of carbon dioxide over other methods. While studies show that reaching net-zero carbon emissions in the United States by 2050 will require between 29,000 and 66,000 miles of carbon pipelines, the U.S. had deployed fewer than 6,000 miles of carbon pipelines by 2022. Although closing this gap is important to achieving low-carbon goals, carbon pipelines operate in a complex and uncertain local, state and federal regulatory landscape and face public concerns about safety and siting. This report covers numerous regulatory issues surrounding carbon pipeline development, including the current narrow federal definition of carbon dioxide and the considerable variation in state and local governments’ laws and regulations. The report serves as a primer for regulators and stakeholders who seek to better understand the regulatory challenges and opportunities facing this critical infrastructure
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Lessons learned in coupling atmospheric models across scales for onshore and offshore wind energy
Abstract. The Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling team, part of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) initiative, has studied various important challenges related to coupling mesoscale models to microscale models for the use case of wind energy development and operation. Several coupling methods and techniques for generating turbulence at the microscale that is subgrid to the mesoscale have been evaluated for a variety of cases. Case studies included flat-terrain, complex-terrain, and offshore environments. Methods were developed to bridge the terra incognita, which scales from about 100 m through the depth of the boundary layer. The team used wind-relevant metrics and archived code, case information, and assessment tools and is making those widely available. Lessons learned and discerned best practices are described in the context of the cases studied for the purpose of enabling further deployment of wind energy.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Quantitative comparison of power production and power quality onshore and offshore: a case study from the eastern United States
Abstract. A major issue in quantifying potential power generation from prospective wind energy sites is the lack of observations from heights relevant to modern wind turbines, particularly for offshore where blade tip heights are projected to increase beyond 250 m. We present analyses of uniquely detailed data sets from lidar (light detection and ranging) deployments in New York State and on two buoys in the adjacent New York Bight to examine the relative power generation potential and power quality at these on- and offshore locations. Time series of 10 min wind power production are computed from these wind speeds using the power curve from the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference wind turbine. Given the relatively close proximity of these lidar deployments, they share a common synoptic-scale meteorology and seasonal variability with lowest wind speeds in July and August. Time series of power production from the on- and offshore location are highly spatially correlated with the Spearman rank correlation coefficient dropping below 0.4 for separation distances of approximately 350 km. Hence careful planning of on- and offshore wind farms (i.e., separation of major plants by > 350 km) can be used reduce the system-wide probability of low wind energy power production. Energy density at 150 m height at the offshore buoys is more than 40 % higher, and the Weibull scale parameter is 2 m s−1 higher than at all but one of the land sites. Analyses of power production time series indicate annual energy production is almost twice as high for the two offshore locations. Further, electrical power production quality is higher from the offshore sites that exhibit a lower amplitude of diurnal variability, plus a lower probability of wind speeds below the cut-in and of ramp events of any magnitude. Despite this and the higher resource, the estimated levelized cost of energy (LCoE) is higher from the offshore sites mainly due to the higher infrastructure costs. Nonetheless, the projected LCoE is highly competitive from all sites considered.
Foody, Rebecca↗
Advanced geospatial analytics and machine learning for offshore and onshore oil & natural gas infrastructure
Presented by LRST at GIS Week, 10/6
Justman, Devin M.↗
SimCCSoffshore: CO2 Transport Network Model to Connect Offshore Storage Sites with Onshore CO2 Sources
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Computer Science↗
Sound at Scale: Characterizing Impacts of Noise Ordinances on the Onshore Wind Energy Technical Potential for the United States
Recent surveys have documented the rapid rise of sound ordinances across state and county jurisdictions, which has become crucial for wind energy siting. However, the lack of information on ordinances and computational challenges in turbine sound modeling create uncertainties regarding how evolving policies may affect resource potential and clean energy objectives. Therefore, we develop an approach to evaluate wind turbine sound profiles at millions of locations across the U.S. and translate them into setback distances for every residential structure. Compared to a baseline reference scenario, we find a 7% reduction in the national wind energy capacity potential when accounting for counties with existing sound ordinances. Additionally, when expanding the surveyed sound ordinances nationwide, we observe a potential loss of 53% of the national wind capacity under the most stringent ordinances, with a disproportionate share of this lost capacity coming from high-quality and low-cost wind resource. This work reveals that neglecting sound ordinances results in a significant overestimation of wind resource potential and highlights the important trade-offs between increased wind energy deployment to meet target decarbonization goals and the social/environmental impacts of this deployment that must be considered.
aeroacoustics↗
Total cost of carbon capture and storage implemented at a regional scale: northeastern and midwestern United States
We model the costs of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in subsurface geological formations for emissions from 138 northeastern and midwestern electricity-generating power plants. The analysis suggests coal-sourced CO 2 emissions can be stored in this region at a cost of $52–$60 ton -1 , whereas the cost to store emission from natural-gas-fired plants ranges from approximately $80 to $90. Storing emissions offshore increases the lowest total costs of CCS to over $60 per ton of CO 2 for coal. Because there apparently is sufficient onshore storage in the northeastern and midwestern United States, offshore storage is not necessary or economical unless there are additional costs or suitability issues associated with the onshore reservoirs. For example, if formation pressures are prohibitive in a large-scale deployment of onshore CCS, or if there is opposition to onshore storage, offshore storage space could probably store emissions at an additional cost of less than $10 ton -1 . Finally, it is likely that more than 8 Gt of total CO 2 emissions from this region can be stored for less $60 ton -1 , slightly more than the $50 ton -1 Section 45Q tax credits incentivizing CCS.
Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics↗
Big Adaptive Rotor Phase I (Final Report)
The Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) project was initiate by DOE in 2018 with the goal of identifying novel technologies that can enable large (>100m) blades for low specific power (SP) turbines. Five distinct tasks were completed to achieve this goal: 1. Assess trends, impacts, and value of low-SP turbines, 2. Wind turbine blade cost reduction roadmap study, 3. Research and Development (R&D) opportunity screening, 4. Detailed design and analysis, and 5. Low-cost carbon fiber. These tasks were completed by the national lab team consisting of Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The objective of Task 1 was to assess the historical trends of low-SP of onshore deployments, and to assess the impact and value of low-SP turbines. Analysis under this task showed that there is significant value for low-SP turbines, especially in markets where there is a higher saturation of wind energy on the grid. This has to do with the fact that low-SP turbines have increased capacity factors, and can contribute more reliable energy to the grid, even in lower wind conditions. This bodes well as higher renewable scenarios are likely in the coming years. Task 2 was a detailed analysis on the logistical challenges of deploying very large (>100m) onshore blade. This work was completed by experts at DNV-GL. The report looked at various ways to get around the current transportation constraints which are estimated to be around 75m in length. The report concluded that there are viable solutions to this issue including: segmented blades (which the industry is already pursuing), lighter than air (LTA) transportation, on-site manufacturing, and controlled bending of blades on rail. The final option was recommended for further analysis and study by DOE and the national labs because keeping a single piece blade reduces manufacturing and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs. Task 3 focused on identifying novel concepts that are capable of enabling a cost effective 5MW 206m rotor for onshore deployment. The findings from the first two tasks were considered in the analysis, in that the concepts identified must be able to overcome the transportation logistics challenges. Around 20 concepts were identified and evaluated by experts within the industry. Additionally, science and engineering challenges were identified for each concept. Based on these evaluations six concepts were deemed the most impactful and were selected for further analysis in Task 4. The concepts were: highly flexible rail transportable blades, downwind rotors, distributed aerodynamic control (DAC) devices, inflatable blade, bi-wing blade, and 4/5 bladed rotors. Task 4 conducted detailed design, optimization, and analysis on the selected BAR concepts. A modeling gaps analysis was conducted, and modeling improvements were implemented that allowed for the study and design of the novel concepts. The BAR team established a set of baseline designs by which to compare the selected designs through a technoeconomic analysis. It was found that the highly flexible rail transportable blade, the downwind rotor, and the DAC devices have the most promise to deliver the BAR targets. A Phase II for BAR has been proposed to further mature these concepts and address the open science and engineering challenges identified in Task 3. Task 5 conducted research on optimized carbon fiber materials that were used throughout the BAR Phase I project. Overall, the BAR project has identified low-SP turbines as important to continued LCOE reductions for onshore turbines. Furthermore, the project has identified viable solutions to the technical and logistical challenges to realizing these goals. The most promising technologies that were identified in Phase I of the project will be further matured and de-risked in Phase II of the BAR project.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Expert perspectives on the wind plant of the future
Abstract Wind power technology has changed rapidly in recent years. Technology innovation, evolving power markets, and competing land and ocean uses continue to influence the design and operation of wind turbines and plants. Anticipating these trends and their impact on future facilities can inform commercial strategies and research priorities. Drawing from a recent survey of 140 of the world's foremost wind experts, we identify expectations of future wind plant design in 2035, both for onshore and offshore wind. Experts anticipate continued growth in turbine size, to 5.5 (onshore) and 17 MW (offshore), with plants located in increasingly less favorable wind and siting regimes. They expect plant sizes of 1,100 MW for fixed‐bottom and 600 MW for floating offshore wind. Experts forecast enhanced grid‐system value from wind through significant to widespread use of larger rotors, hybrid projects with batteries and hydrogen production, and more. To explain experts' perspectives on future plant design and operation, we identify five mechanisms: economies of unit, plant, and resource scale; grid‐system value economies; and production efficiencies. We characterize learning effects as a moderating influence on the strength of these mechanisms. In combination, experts predict that these design choices support levelized cost of energy reductions of 27% (onshore) and 17%–35% (floating and fixed‐bottom offshore) by 2035 compared to today, while enhancing wind energy's grid service offerings. Our findings provide a much‐needed benchmark for representing future wind technologies in power sector models and address a critical research gap by explaining the economics behind wind energy design choices.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon
The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Co-Located Wave Energy Converter (WEC) and Aquaculture System Annotated Bibliography
This annotated bibliography includes references that could aid in the design of a co-located WEC and aquaculture system off the coast of Guam. The breadth of this work covers multiple co-location archetypes such as: 1. WEC seawater desalination system a) Nearshore and deepwater WEC deployment b) Onshore and offshore aquaculture 2. WEC powering an offshore aquaculture platform a) Nearshore or deepwater WEC deployment 3. WEC powering an onshore aquaculture system a) Nearshore WEC deployment 4. Wave powered seawater pump a) Nearshore WEC deployment b) Onshore aquaculture There are two archetypes that may be of immediate interest to the community in Guam are to service the existing Fadian Hatchery (Mangilao) and to support freshwater aquaculture activities. First, the seawater pump at the hatchery that fills the facility’s seawater storage unit is broken. A nearshore seawater pumping WEC could be a solution to this issue. In addition, due to the high frequency of typhoons/extreme conditions and the island’s bathymetry, the likelihood of community support for an offshore aquaculture platform or WEC deployed in deepwater is low. Proactive and resilient solutions not just for power, but for freshwater are of interest as well to support any freshwater aquaculture activities. Therefore, a nearshore WEC desalination system is another archetype to consider.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
The Impact of Inherited Morphology on Sandbar Migration During Mild Wave Seasons
Sandbars are ubiquitous morphologic features found in the nearshore environment throughout the world, yet predictive capabilities of their evolution remain limited. In order to provide new insights on the relevant processes controlling sandbar morphodynamics, this study uses a 41-year record of 637 monthly cross-shore profiles from Duck, North Carolina, USA, to derive complex empirical orthogonal functions representative of the two dominant modes of sandbar migrations: offshore and onshore propagation. Interference of these two modes produces commonly observed sandbar states. While mild wave energies are traditionally assumed to drive onshore sandbar migration, the offshore mode is repeatedly seen to dominate sandbar migration in mild wave seasons following anomalously high late-winter wave energy and when the inherited morphology is composed of a single bar or terrace, as opposed to a more common two-bar state. A data-derived conceptual model is presented synthesizing the effect of antecedent morphology and wave climate chronology on interannual trends in net offshore sandbar migration.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Cascadia Subduction Zone Fault Heterogeneities From Newly Detected Small Magnitude Earthquakes
The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is known to host M9 megathrust ruptures; however, no such event has occurred in historical observation. The distribution and characteristics of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes can be used to determine the behavior of the megathrust fault but are notably absent offshore the CSZ due to the distance from onshore seismometers. We use automated subspace detection coupled with an onshore-offshore seismic deployment to find small-magnitude earthquakes in the offshore seismogenic zone and analyze their locations in the context of interseismic locking and seismogenic zone extent. Here we detected and located 5,282 earthquakes, 4,096 of which had been previously undetected. We find that the downdip extent of the seismogenic zone as defined by interplate seismicity agrees with the 20% locking contour of the Schmalzle et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GC005172) geodetic model and extends deeper than predicted by previous thermal models. We cannot determine the updip extent of the seismogenic zone; this may be due to a lack of templates for detection in the updip source area, stress shadows updip of asperity loading, and/or strong locking to the trench. We present a map of possible asperities determined by the small earthquakes in this study. Our asperity locations and extents show some, but not complete, agreement with the asperities modeled from the 1700 M9 rupture and geodetic locking models, and good agreement with the paleo-rupture extents determined from offshore turbidites and forearc basin-based asperity estimates. This highlights the need of continued offshore observations over time, and to elucidate fine-scale variation in locking.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Can lidars assess wind plant blockage in simple terrain? A WRF-LES study
Wind plant blockage reduces wind velocity upstream of wind plants, reducing the power generated by turbines adjacent to the inflow, and potentially throughout the plant as well. The nature of the mechanism that amplifies blockage as well as the velocity reductions in both the induction zone and potentially deeper into the array are not well understood. Field observations can provide valuable insight into the characteristics of the induction zone and the mechanisms that amplify it. However, the relatively small velocity reductions that have been measured experimentally pose a challenge in quantifying blockage, especially in onshore environments with flow heterogeneities that may be of the same scale as the blockage effect itself. We simulate the flow around the King Plains wind plant in the relatively simple terrain of Oklahoma, the location of the American WAKE experimeNt, to evaluate wind plant blockage in this environment. Using numerical simulations, we find the largest velocity deceleration (0.64 m s−1; 8%) immediately upstream of the wind plant, and 1% velocity deficits 24 rotor diameters upstream of the first turbine row. We also use virtual measurements upstream of the wind plant to analyze the uncertainties and difficulties in measuring blockage using a scanning lidar on shore. Based on our virtual lidar study, the induction zone of land-based wind plants can be incorrectly estimated using observations if the effects of nonuniform terrain on the flow are not carefully considered. Changes in terrain elevation produce local variations in wind speed (as measured by a scanning lidar) that exceed in magnitude the deceleration within the induction zone. We refer to these local changes in wind speed as terrain effects. A methodology to differentiate between terrain effects and blockage in experimental settings is proposed and evaluated herein, highlighting the difficulties and uncertainties associated with measurement and simulation of blockage in even relatively simple onshore environments.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Process-based climate change assessment for European winds using EURO-CORDEX and global models
Wind energy is an important pillar of decarbonization strategies and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Existing wind climate change assessments rely on climate models but a systematic investigation of the global-to-regional climate modeling chain is missing. In this study, I highlight key limitations, namely (a) the differing representation of land use change in global and regional climate models which compromises comparability, and (b) the consistency of large-scale features along the global-to-regional climate modeling chain. To this end, I analyze the large European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble (rcp85: N = 49; rcp45: N= 18; rcp26: N = 22) along with the driving global models (rcp85: N = 7; rcp45: N = 5; rcp26: N = 7), finding evidence that climate change reduces mean wind speeds by up to -0.8 ms -1 (offshore) and -0.3 ms -1 (onshore). I provide physical explanations for these changes by identifying two key drivers. First, onshore wind speeds drop in the driving global models in regions and scenarios with strong land use change but show no drop in EURO-CORDEX where land use is held constant. Second, offshore wind reductions follow decreases in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient remarkably well with correlations reaching around 0.9 in resource-rich European countries like Ireland, the United Kingdom and Norway, implying that arctic amplification is a severe risk for European offshore wind energy. My results suggest that earlier conclusions of negligible climate change impacts on wind energy might be premature if either land use changes strongly or polar amplification is at or above the range sampled in global climate models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗