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CMC Research at NASA Glenn in 2021: Recent Progress and Plans

As part of NASA’s Aeronautics research, Glenn Research Center has developed SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites for 2700°F turbine engine applications in the next generation of ultra-efficient aircraft. In this presentation, the development and characterization of constituents and fabrication processes that enabled this advancement will be reviewed, and the resulting improvements in CMC mechanical properties and durability will be summarized. Progress toward the development and experimental validation of analytical models predicting the effects of engine operating conditions on the durability of Ceramic Matrix Composites with Environmental Barrier Coatings will be summarized. Results from current collaborative research with industry, universities and other government agencies will be reviewed. Research plans for 2021 and opportunities for future collaborations with NASA will also be summarized.

Ceramic Matrix Composites↗

Synergistic and Collaborative Development Strategies for FV3 Powered Next Generation Unified Global Modeling System

The GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Finite-­Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) is a scalable and flexible dynamical core capable of both hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations. FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA) operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA's Environmental Modeling System infrastructure. FV3 dynamic core has a long history of serving as the main engine for global atmospheric models at various Government and Academic Research Laboratories including NOAA: GFDL Climate Modeling Suite (AM4 (Atmosphere Modeling 4), CM4 (Climate Model 4) ESM4 (Earth System Model 4), Hiram (HIgh Resolution Atmospheric Model)); NASA: GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS); and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Earth System Model (CESM). The three primary stakeholders in FV3 (GFDL, GMAO, EMC (Environmental Modeling Center - NOAA)) have embarked on synergistic and collaborative strategies with focus on the advancement of non-hydrostratic dynamic core, physics, chemistry, and data assimilation efforts, leveraging collective strengths of each of the partnering agencies. This talk presents the ongoing plans for model advancements at GFDL, GMAO and EMC, with special emphasis on contributions towards developing community based unified global modeling system for operational and research applications at respective organizations. Future plans include extending the collaborations to the development of earth system components including GMAO's aerosol chemistry models (GOCART/MAM (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport / Modal Aerosol Model)), Land Information System (LIS), and advanced data assimilation techniques; and GFDL's Modular Ocean Model (MOM) and Sea Ice Simulator (SIS) for transition to operations at NCEP.

Putman, William↗

Thermal analytical model of a 30 cm mercury ion thruster

A lumped parameter thermal nodal network has been developed for a 30 cm engineering model mercury ion thruster. The network consists of approximately 100 nodes coded in SINDA format for use on the Univac 1106/1108 computer. This model takes into account internal dissipation, radiation, and conduction as well as environmental heating. A series of tests were performed at NASA-Lewis Research Center to simulate a wide range of thermal environments on an operating 30 cm thruster, instrumented to measure the temperature distribution within the thruster. The results of these tests were used to calibrate the analytical model. Presented in this paper are a description of the analytical model along with comparisons between analytical and experimental results for the various operating conditions.

Oglebay, J. C.↗

Assimilating Scanning Radar Data into Cloud-Scale Models

The aim of this project is to improve the initial conditions of large eddy simulations (LES) of deep convective storms by assimilating scanning radar reflectivity and radial velocity data as well as local environmental observations. Accomplishing this goal often results in more accurate numerical forecasts of clouds and precipitation than if the background initial meteorological conditions are solely relied upon for convection initiation and intensification, as is typical of most operational and research models. Conducted in a storm-scale LES framework, these more accurate numerical analyses can serve as tool to better understand and parameterize land-atmosphere coupling, boundary layer turbulence, and cloud processes, each used for model parameterization development of convection. Our work examined the sensitivity of the numerical representation of cloud-scale wind and microphysical structures to: i) the assimilation of radiosonde observations characterizing the near-storm inflow, ii) the assimilation of radar data of varying resolution for model simulations with grid spacings of 1-km and 0.25-km, and iii) to the assimilation of three-dimensional plan-projection-indicator (PPI) and range-height indicator (RHI) radar volumes. Few studies have explored deep convective storm analyses and forecasts produced by assimilation of radar observations to cloud-scale LES. Furthermore, to our knowledge, no storm-scale DA study has explored the value of assimilating high-resolution sector RHI volumes to determine if they can improve the retrieval of the vertical kinematic and microphysical storm structure aloft over the use of traditionally utilized PPI scans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Prognostics Framework for Battery Health Monitoring Integrated with Thermal Modeling

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) promises to revolutionize transportation in major cities, offering passenger travel, cargo delivery, and emergency medical services through a network of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. However, the limited range of current eVTOLs, due to the low specific energy of lithium-ion batteries along with a possibility of thermal runaway conditions poses significant safety concerns, leading to potentially compromising operational safety. To address this critical challenge, researchers are actively evaluating the impact of flight and environmental conditions on onboard lithium-ion battery health. This involves carefully assessing the performance of battery packs under laboratory and operational conditions for developing models to estimate future health using prognostics framework. This study examines the effectiveness of evaluating battery degradation leading to catastrophic failures under varying operational conditions in laboratory. These are captured using physics based models of underlying phenomenons and integrated into the prognostics framework. A fully charged battery undergoes controlled discharge cycles at varying C-rates based on the simulated power draw profile, with current and voltage, temperature data recorded throughout the experiment. The observed data provides valuable insights into how different operating conditions and mission profiles affect battery performance. This information is crucial for developing strategies to optimize battery systems, enhance range, and ultimately ensure the safe and reliable operation of UAM vehicles.

Thermal Modeling↗

A Prognostics Framework for Battery Health Monitoring Integrated with Thermal Modeling

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) promises to revolutionize transportation in major cities, offering passenger travel, cargo delivery, and emergency medical services through a network of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. However, the limited range of current eVTOLs, due to the low specific energy of lithium-ion batteries along with a possibility of thermal runaway conditions poses significant safety concerns, leading to potentially compromising operational safety. To address this critical challenge, researchers are actively evaluating the impact of flight and environmental conditions on onboard lithium-ion battery health. This involves carefully assessing the performance of battery packs under laboratory and operational conditions for developing models to estimate future health using prognostics framework. This study examines the effectiveness of evaluating battery degradation leading to catastrophic failures under varying operational conditions in laboratory. These are captured using physics based models of underlying phenomenons and integrated into the prognostics framework. A fully charged battery undergoes controlled discharge cycles at varying C-rates based on the simulated power draw profile, with current and voltage, temperature data recorded throughout the experiment. The observed data provides valuable insights into how different operating conditions and mission profiles affect battery performance. This information is crucial for developing strategies to optimize battery systems, enhance range, and ultimately ensure the safe and reliable operation of UAM vehicles.

Thermal Modeling↗

A Prognostics Framework for Battery Health Monitoring Integrated with Thermal Modeling

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) promises to revolutionize transportation in major cities, offering passenger travel, cargo delivery, and emergency medical services through a network of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. However, the limited range of current eVTOLs, due to the low specific energy of lithium-ion batteries along with a possibility of thermal runaway conditions poses significant safety concerns, leading to potentially compromising operational safety. To address this critical challenge, researchers are actively evaluating the impact of flight and environmental conditions on onboard lithium-ion battery health. This involves carefully assessing the performance of battery packs under laboratory and operational conditions for developing models to estimate future health using prognostics framework. This study examines the effectiveness of evaluating battery degradation leading to catastrophic failures under varying operational conditions in laboratory. These are captured using physics based models of underlying phenomenons and integrated into the prognostics framework. A fully charged battery undergoes controlled discharge cycles at varying C-rates based on the simulated power draw profile, with current and voltage, temperature data recorded throughout the experiment. The observed data provides valuable insights into how different operating conditions and mission profiles affect battery performance. This information is crucial for developing strategies to optimize battery systems, enhance range, and ultimately ensure the safe and reliable operation of UAM vehicles.

Thermal Modeling↗

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗

Bioelectrochemical reactor to manage anthropogenic sulfate pollution for freshwater ecosystems: Mathematical modeling and experimental validation

Anthropogenic sulfate loading into otherwise low-sulfate freshwater systems can cause significant ecological consequences as a biogeochemical stressor. To address this challenge, in situ bioremediation technologies have been developed to leverage naturally occurring microorganisms that transform sulfate into sulfide rather than implementing resource-intensive physio-chemical processes. However, bioremediation technologies often require the supply of electron donors to facilitate biological sulfate reduction. Bioelectrochemical systems (BES) can be an alternative approach for supplying molecular hydrogen as an electron donor for sulfate-reducing bacteria through water electrolysis. Although the fundamental mechanisms behind BESs have been studied, limited research has evaluated the design and operational parameters of treatment systems when developing BESs on a scale relevant to environmental systems. Further, this study aimed to develop an application-based mathematical model to evaluate the performance of BESs across a range of reactor configurations and operational modes. The model was based on sulfate transformation by hydrogenotrophic sulfate-reducing bacteria coupled with the recovery of solid iron sulfide species formed by the oxidative dissolution of dissolved ferrous iron from a stainless steel anode. Sulfate removal closely corresponded to the rate of electrolytic hydrogen production and hydraulic residence time but was less sensitive to specific microbial rate constants. The mathematical model results were compared to experimental data from a pilot-scale BES tested with nonacidic mine drainage as a case study. The close agreement between the mathematical model and the pilot-scale BES experiment highlights the efficacy of using a mathematical model as a tool to develop a conceptual design of a scaled-up treatment system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wildfire Segmentation From Remotely Sensed Data Using Quantum-Compatible Conditional Vector Quantized-Variational Autoencoders

Wildfires represent a critical environmental hazard with multifaceted implications for ecosystems, communities, and public health [1]. The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally have intensified the urgency for robust segmentation methodologies to facilitate effective mitigation, response, and recovery strategies [2]. Accurate wildfire segmentation is pivotal for delineating fire boundaries, assessing progression patterns, and prioritizing resource allocation during emergency scenarios. Furthermore, precise segmentation enables stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental scientists, and emergency responders, to formulate evidence-based strategies, thereby minimizing socio-economic disruptions and ecological degradation. Consequently, advancing wildfire segmentation techniques through innovative technological interventions remains a paramount research imperative. Although foundational in wildfire segmentation, traditional deterministic models exhibit inherent limitations that compromise their efficacy in dynamic and uncertain environments. These models often operate on rigid algorithms prioritizing deterministic classifications, thereby overlooking the inherent complexities and uncertainties associated with wildfire behavior and satellite data variability. Such deterministic frameworks tend to produce oversimplified representations that fail to capture the intricate nuances of evolving fire dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental interactions [1]. Consequently, the deterministic approach’s propensity for uncertainty collapsing [1, 3] hampers the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of segmentation outcomes in real-world scenarios. Contrastingly, stochastic models offer a more nuanced and adaptable framework for wildfire segmentation. By integrating probabilistic elements into the modeling paradigm, stochastic approaches, particularly probabilistic approaches such as variational auto encoders (VAEs) [4], facilitate comprehensive uncertainty assessment, enabling researchers to quantify and incorporate uncertainties into segmentation outcomes effectively. This probabilistic nature empowers stochastic models to encapsulate variability, account for data inconsistencies, and adapt to evolving environmental conditions, enhancing segmentation accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Embracing stochastic methodologies thus catalyzes advancements in wildfire science by fostering a more holistic, adaptive, and resilient segmentation framework. Despite VAEs demonstrating significant promise in various applications, they come with inherent limitations that have garnered attention within the machine learning community. One of the primary drawbacks lies in their reliance on static priors, which essentially assume a fixed distribution for latent variables, thereby limiting the model’s flexibility to capture complex data structures effectively [5]. This static nature leads to suboptimal representations, especially when dealing with complex and high-dimensional data. Additionally, VAEs often struggle with generating sharp and realistic samples, a phenomenon commonly referred to as mode collapse [5, 7, 6]. Furthermore, the optimization process in VAEs, which involves balancing the reconstruction loss and the regularization term, can sometimes be challenging to fine-tune [7]. In recent efforts to address these shortcomings, alternative approaches like Vector Quantized Variational Auto encoders(VQ-VAEs) [7], address the challenges by incorporating discrete latent variables and leveraging techniques that enhance the quality and diversity of generated samples while maintaining efficient training dynamics. VQ-VAEs propose a dynamic prior distribution generation mechanism that diverges from the static priors commonly associated with traditional VAEs. This dynamic approach allows for more adaptive and context-aware latent variable representations, thereby potentially capturing complex data structures more effectively. Unlike autoregressive prior models such as PixelCNN, which, despite their ability to model dependencies across data dimensions, suffer from significant computational inefficiencies and lack flexibility in handling diverse datasets. In our work, we propose to use a generative quantum-compatible approach to help alleviate the shortcomings of autoregressive prior model in VQ-VAEs. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a viable alternative prior model that can learn prior distributions in a faster and more flexible manner. In this research endeavor, we meticulously curate a state-of-the-art dataset leveraging satellite MODIS data in conjunction with VIIRS fire masks, derived from Fire Radiative Power (FRP), thereby encapsulating diverse wildfire scenarios and environmental contexts. We developed a conditional VQ-VAE architecture with the RBM prior model that is trained in a supervised manner for segmenting wildfire masks. This innovative approach synergistically harnesses deep learning capabilities, enabling the generation of segmentation maps characterized by heightened precision, granularity, and contextual relevance. Furthermore, replacing the autoregressive prior learning method proposed by the original VQ-VAE with a prior density approximation via quantum-compatible RBM facilitates expedited inference processes, augments flexibility in prior sampling, optimizes computational efficiency and establishes a groundbreaking benchmark in wildfire segmentation methodologies.

quantum machine learning↗

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division/Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Evaluating Tradeoffs Between Environmental Impact and Operational Costs for Enroute Air Traffic

The rapid growth of air traffic has drawn attention to aircraft-induced environmental impact. Aviation operations affect the environment mainly through the release of emissions and by the formation of contrails. Recent research has shown that altering aircraft cruise altitudes can reduce aviation environmental impact by reducing Absolute Global Temperature Change Potential, a climate assessment metric that adapts a linear system for modeling the global temperature response to aviation emissions and contrails. However, these methods will increase fuel consumption that leads to higher operational costs imposed on airlines resulting in reluctance to adopt a new routing strategy. This paper evaluates the tradeoff between environmental impact reduction and the corresponding added operational costs for enroute air traffic. The concept of social cost of carbon and the carbon auction price from California's recent cap-and-trade system were used to provide estimates and a methodology to evaluate environmental costs for carbon dioxide emissions and contrail formations. Depending on the specific environmental policy, the strategy is considered favorable when the reduction in environmental costs exceeds the increase in operational costs. The results show how the net environmental bene t varies with different decision-making time horizons, different carbon and fuel costs, and different days. The study provides guidance towards the development of the environmental reduction strategies.

environmental impact↗

Impact of multimode range and location on urban fuel economy on a light-duty spark-ignition based powertrain using vehicle system simulations

Multimode engine operation uses two or more combustion modes to maximize engine efficiency across the operational range of a vehicle to achieve higher overall vehicle fuel economy than is possible with a single combustion mode. More specifically for this study, multimode solutions are explored that make use of boosted SI under high load operation and other advanced combustion modes such as advanced compression ignition (ACI) under part-load conditions to enable additional engine efficiency improvements across a broader range of the engine operating map. ACI combustion has well-documented potential to improve efficiency and emissions under part-load operation but poses challenges that limit full engine speed-load range. This study investigates the potential impact of ACI operational range on simulated fuel economy to help focus research on areas with the most opportunity for improving fuel economy. These simulations make use of a vehicle model, discretized engine data, and employ a systematic exploration of ACI operational range to estimate multimode fuel economy for a mid-size passenger vehicle over U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule. The results of this study highlight operational ranges with the highest potential fuel economy and correspondingly areas of focus for multimode research and ACI engine operation1.

Curran, Scott↗

Reliability Assessment of Cooling Fans for PV Inverters: Testing, Modeling, and Case Studies

The reliability of photovoltaic (PV) inverters is critical for long-term solar system performance, with cooling fan failures frequently leading to costly downtime. While much research exists on general cooling fan reliability, little attention has been given to fans operating within PV inverters and their unique environmental challenges. Here, this article proposes a comprehensive methodology to address this gap. First, a failure mode and effects analysis is performed on fans to identify the key failure mechanisms in PV applications, their corresponding stressors, and the models necessary for lifetime prediction. Second, an accelerated life test is designed and conducted to collect valuable experimental data for PV inverter fans in a reasonable amount of time. Third, a mathematical conversion of dynamic mission profiles into effective constant stress levels is derived. Fourth, case studies are given, showcasing lifetime estimates that account for geographic variations in mission profile data. The results demonstrate that this integrated approach leads to an accurate reliability assessment for PV inverter cooling fans.

accelerated life testing (ALT)↗

NASA Earth Observation Systems and Applications for Health and Air Quality

There is a growing body of evidence that the environment can affect human health in ways that are both complex and global in scope. To address some of these complexities, NASA maintains a diverse constellation of Earth observing research satellites, and sponsors research in developing satellite data applications across a wide spectrum of areas. These include environmental health; infectious disease; air quality standards, policies, and regulations; and the impact of climate change on health and air quality in a number of interrelated efforts. The Health and Air Quality Applications fosters the use of observations, modeling systems, forecast development, application integration, and the research to operations transition process to address environmental health effects. NASA has been a primary partner with Federal operational agencies over the past nine years in these areas. This talk presents the background of the Health and Air Quality Applications program, recent accomplishments, and a plan for the future.

Omar, Ali H.↗

NASA Health and Air Quality Applications

There is a growing body of evidence that the environment can affect human health in ways that are both complex and global in scope. To address some of these complexities, NASA maintains a diverse constellation of Earth observing research satellites, and sponsors research in developing satellite data applications across a wide spectrum of areas. These include environmental health; infectious disease; air quality standards, policies, and regulations; and the impact of climate change on health and air quality in a number of interrelated efforts. The Health and Air Quality Applications fosters the use of observations, modeling systems, forecast development, application integration, and the research to operations transition process to address environmental health effects. NASA has been a primary partner with Federal operational agencies over the past nine years in these areas. This talk presents the background of the Health and Air Quality Applications program, recent accomplishments, and a plan for the future.

Air Quality Remote Sensing↗

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Case. Jonathan↗

MSD CoP Webinar: "Generative agents: A new frontier for representing human actors and their behavior in MSD models"

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Talk #1: Behavioral Generative Agents for Energy Operations Presenter: Dr. Cong Chen (Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College) Abstract: Accurately modeling consumer behavior in energy operations remains challenging due to inherent uncertainties, behavioral complexities, and limited empirical data. This talk introduces a novel approach leveraging generative agents--artificial agents powered by large language models--to realistically simulate customer decision-making in dynamic energy operations. Talk #2: Simulating multiple human perspectives in socio-ecological systems using large language models Presenter: Dr. Yongchao Zeng (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU) of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany) Abstract: Understanding socio-ecological systems requires insights from diverse stakeholder perspectives. This talk describes a novel simulation system called HoPeS (Human-oriented Perspective Shifting). HoPeS enables model users to not only explore simulated socio-ecological systems (SESs) from a third-person observer's perspective but also take any of the simulated stakeholder roles, like playing an RPG game. By shifting multiple perspectives, model users can reflect and integrate the situated knowledge learned through the participatory simulation, approximating a more holistic and less biased understanding of SESs. Moderators: Jim Yoon (MSD CoP Human Systems Modeling Working Group Co-Chair); Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP Using AI to Enhance MSD Research Working Group Co-Chair); Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: November 13th, 2025 from 12-1 PM EST.

Artificial Intelligence↗