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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

A Theoretical Operational Model for Complex Experiments and its Invariance Theorems

We develop and systematize the Theoretical–Operational Model (TOM), a framework that treats preparation and measurement —including their operational residues— as intrinsic structures of physical theory. The central contribution is a principled geometric–algebraic organization of admissible operational deformations, formulated using quantum channels, renormalization-style flows, and information-geometric tools. Within this structure, operational residues and background processes are represented as effective morphisms attached to these operational components, whose invariants yield constraints on how theoretical parameters vary under specified classes of deformations. Illustrations drawn from muon–electron conversion, long-baseline neutrino oscillations, and quark–gluon-plasma phenomenology show how TOM maps operational effects into inferences about theoretical parameters, enables systematic cross-experimental comparisons, and stabilizes parameter estimation against defined deformation families. By embedding the operational layer—together with its residues—within a structured theoretical setting, TOM supports both theory testing and theory development, clarifying the conceptual relation between experimental realization and the physical quantities represented by the theory.

Pronskikh, Vitaly [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002518174↗
DOE OSTI2026

Source-Resolved Inversion of Elemental Carbon Emissions in California Using Log-Space Bayesian Inference

Elemental carbon (EC), operationally quantified by thermal-optical analysis, is widely used as a proxy for black carbon (BC) relevant to short-term climate forcing and public health. Current EC emission inventories remain highly uncertain, with persistent discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we develop a source-resolved, log-space Bayesian inversion framework applied to estimate California’s statewide EC emissions in 2019. By integrating surface EC measurements from the EPA’s Air Quality System network with high-resolution source contributions simulated by a chemical transport model, we identify a one-third underestimation in the existing statewide EC inventory, requiring an increase of the total from a prior of 8.58 [5.49–13.75] Gg year–1 to a posterior estimate of 12.78 [10.71–15.37] Gg year–1. This discrepancy is primarily driven by substantial underestimations in the power and industrial and off-road mobile sectors. Furthermore, population-weighted exposure analysis reveals a marked sectoral divergence between emission mass and health burden: off-road mobile sources dominate both emissions and exposure, accounting for 31% of statewide exposure, while residential wood combustion contributes 26% of total exposure despite comprising only 19% of total emissions, due to its source proximity to population. These findings underscore the need to update sector-specific EC speciation profiles and demonstrate that mitigation strategies targeting off-road mobile sources and residential wood combustion are critical for reducing EC-related health impacts in California.

Zhang, Jie↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI DR2 results. II. Measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations and cosmological constraints

We present baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from more than 14 million galaxies and quasars drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2), based on three years of operation. For cosmology inference, these galaxy measurements are combined with DESI Lyman-𝛼 forest BAO results presented in a companion paper (M. Abdul-Karim et al., companion paper, Phys. Rev. D 112, 083514 2025.). The DR2 BAO results are consistent with DESI DR1 and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and their distance-redshift relationship matches those from recent compilations of supernovae (SNe) over the same redshift range. The results are well described by a flat Λ cold dark matter (Λ⁢CDM) model, but the parameters preferred by BAO are in mild, 2.3⁢𝜎 tension with those determined from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), although the DESI results are consistent with the acoustic angular scale 𝜃 * that is well measured by Planck. This tension is alleviated by dark energy with a time-evolving equation of state parametrized by 𝑤0 and 𝑤𝑎, which provides a better fit to the data, with a favored solution in the quadrant with 𝑤 0 >−1 and 𝑤 𝑎 <0. This solution is preferred over Λ ⁢CDM at 3.1⁢𝜎 for the combination of DESI BAO and CMB data. When also including SNe, the preference for a dynamical dark energy model over Λ⁢ CDM ranges from 2.8 − 4.2⁢𝜎 depending on which SNe sample is used. We present evidence from other data combinations which also favor the same behavior at high significance. From the combination of DESI and CMB we derive 95% upper limits on the sum of neutrino masses, finding ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.064 eV assuming Λ ⁢CDM and ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.16 eV in the 𝑤0⁢𝑤𝑎 model. Unless there is an unknown systematic error associated with one or more datasets, it is clear that Λ⁢ CDM is being challenged by the combination of DESI BAO with other measurements and that dynamical dark energy offers a possible solution.

Baryon acoustic oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Exploration and Surrogate Emulation of Nonlinear Beam-Response Geometry in the LBNF Beamline

Next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiments aim to achieve multi-MW proton beam power while reducing accelerator-induced systematic uncertainties. At Fermilab, the LBNF beamline is designed for 1.2 MW operation with PIP-II and is upgradeable to 2.4 MW. DUNE will probe the three-flavor neutrino paradigm and search for CP violation, requiring precise neutrino-flux normalization and improved control of accelerator-related uncertainties. Within the LBNF beamline, the System for On-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) will constrain flux uncertainties using precision near-detector measurements, while the Muon Monitor System (MuMS) will provide beamline diagnostics sensitive to the proton beam, target, and horn configuration. However, the pion phase space relevant for DUNE depends simultaneously on many correlated parameters, including beam centroid, beam width, horn current and alignment, target position, optics shifts, and radiation-induced changes. Consequently, MuMS observables exhibit nonlinear and coupled responses that are difficult to characterize using traditional one-parameter scans. To address this challenge, we are developing a Bayesian Exploration framework coupled to physics-informed surrogate emulators trained on Geant4 beamline simulations. Gaussian-process emulators provide both fast predictions and uncertainty estimates, enabling adaptive selection of new simulation points in beam-parameter space. As an initial demonstration, we construct surrogate emulators for MuMS response observables using a verified simulation campaign spanning proton-beam steering conditions. The emulators reproduce the simulated dependence of MuMS centroid and gradient observables while providing predictive uncertainties, and serve as the foundation for future multidimensional exploration including beam width, horn current, and additional beamline parameters. This work establishes a framework for uncertainty-aware beam monitoring, adaptive simulation campaigns, and rapid beam-response inference for future DUNE operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data Center High-Temperature Liquid Cooling and Heat Reuse Techno-Economic Study: Preprint

Data centers are energy-intensive facilities with growing demands for efficiency and cost-effective operations. Smaller, more distributed edge inference data centers are expected to proliferate as AI applications require low latency closer to the user of AI tools, which presents a growing opportunity to explore the systems implications of liquid cooling on water and energy use. This study analyzes the implementation of high-temperature liquid cooling systems in a prototypical inference 1-MW data center and explores the potential for heat reuse across varying climates with a goal to optimize energy efficiency, reduce capital and operational costs, and identify opportunities for high-performance cooling and water use reduction infrastructure. This analysis evaluated configurations utilizing a peak day hourly sizing and systems performance spreadsheet to evaluate design and operational conditions from which component sizes, installed cost, operational cost, and performance metrics were determined for the Base case and the Elevated case. The techno-economic analysis included heat reuse applications across a range of heat recovery temperatures and heat rejection options. The analysis shows that high-temperature liquid cooling allows for improved energy efficiency, lower water consumption, and lower capital costs compared to traditional cooling approaches. Transitioning to elevated water inlet/outlet temperatures (50 degrees C/60 degrees C) eliminates the need for chillers, cooling towers, and heat recovery equipment in many scenarios across three distinct climate zones. This results in up to 75% capital cost savings for the cooling and heat recovery equipment, and with significantly reduced water consumption, especially in non-heat reuse applications. Heat generated from data centers can also be repurposed for space heating, domestic hot water, and other applications, and is most cost-effective when data center outlet temperatures exceed 55-60 degrees C.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

On-chip probabilistic inference for charged-particle tracking at the sensor edge

Modern scientific instruments operate under increasingly extreme constraints on bandwidth, latency, and power. Inference at the sensor edge determines experimental data collection efficiency by deciding which information to save for further analysis. Particle tracking detectors at the Large Hadron Collider exemplify this challenge: pixelated silicon sensors generate rich spatiotemporal ionization patterns, yet most of this information is discarded due to data-rate limitations. Concurrently, advancements in co-design tools provide rapid turn-around for incorporating machine learning into application-specific integrated circuits, motivating designs for particle detectors with new integrated technologies. We demonstrate that neural networks embedded in the front-end electronics can infer charged-particle kinematic parameters from a single silicon layer. We regress hit positions and incident angles with calibrated uncertainties, while satisfying stringent constraints on numerical precision, latency, and silicon area. Our results establish a path toward probabilistic inference directly at the edge, opening new opportunities for intelligent sensing in high-rate scientific instruments.

Das, Arghya Ranjan [Purdue U.] (ORCID:000000018451↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fourier-based three-dimensional multistage transformer for aberration correction in multicellular specimens

High-resolution tissue imaging is often compromised by sample-induced optical aberrations that degrade resolution and contrast. Although wavefront sensor-based adaptive optics (AO) can measure these aberrations, such hardware solutions are typically complex, expensive to implement and slow when serially mapping spatially varying aberrations across large fields of view. Here we introduce AOViFT (adaptive optical vision Fourier transformer)—a machine learning-based aberration sensing framework built around a three-dimensional multistage vision transformer that operates on Fourier domain embeddings. AOViFT infers aberrations and restores diffraction-limited performance in puncta-labeled specimens with substantially reduced computational cost, training time and memory footprint compared to conventional architectures or real-space networks. We validated AOViFT on live gene-edited zebrafish embryos, demonstrating its ability to correct spatially varying aberrations using either a deformable mirror or postacquisition deconvolution. By eliminating the need for the guide star and wavefront sensing hardware and simplifying the experimental workflow, AOViFT lowers technical barriers for high-resolution volumetric microscopy across diverse biological samples.

Alshaabi, Thayer [Howard Hughes Medical Institute,↗
DOE OSTI2026

Photoelectrode Durability in Two- versus Three-Electrode Configurations: Understanding the Impact of Circuit Configuration on Water-Splitting Stability

Device durability remains a significant challenge in photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting under ambient conditions. Yet, a lack of understanding of the test configuration and applied bias effects continue to hinder progress. In this study, we differentiate two-electrode (2E) and three-electrode (3E) configurations for evaluating PEC material durability, focusing particularly on their impacts on photoabsorber solid-state operating conditions. Our results underscore the fallacy of inferring 2E device stability from durability measurements performed solely in 3E configurations. Unmeasured and often misunderstood total circuit bias in 3E tests moderates material degradation, leading to the overestimation of photoelectrode stability compared to short-circuit operation. We demonstrate how the photoabsorber's operating voltage critically governs charge separation, surface stability, and degradation mechanisms during PEC operation. With these findings, we propose a standardized framework for conducting more reliable 3E durability experiments that simulate unassisted performance to help accelerate the development of robust, stable materials for solar-driven water splitting.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

AI-driven Neutrino Beam Diagnostics for Next-Generation Neutrino Experiments

The accelerator-driven beam uncertainty limits oscillation measurements in long-baseline neutrino experiments. Spill-resolved beam diagnostics and real-time inference are necessary to address these neutrino flux systematics. As such, we present a machine-learning-based beam monitoring framework developed and validated using data from the T2K experiment. Our approach uses downstream, spill-by-spill muon monitor observables to predict upstream parameters such as proton beam position and width. We achieve high predictive accuracy on nominal runs, demonstrating robust baseline performance whether the model is trained on stable runs or systematically varied conditions. The framework is designed to be robust against domain shifts, allowing the neural network architectures and inference strategies developed with T2K data to be retrained and validated using LBNF simulations, with the goal of eventual deployment under real LBNF/DUNE operating conditions. This scalable approach to real-time beam inference offers a pathway toward reducing flux systematics for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE.

Aney, Noah [Fermilab; U. Chicago (main)]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging Hydrological Ensemble Simulation and Learning Using Deep Neural Operators

Ensemble-based simulation and learning (ESnL) has long been used in hydrology for parameter inference, but computational demands of process-based ESnL can be quite high. To address this issue, we propose a deep neural operator learning approach. Neural operators are generic machine learning algorithms that can learn functional mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, providing a highly flexible tool for scientific machine learning. Our approach is built upon DeepONet, a specific deep neural operator, and is designed to address several common problems in hydrology, namely, model parameter estimation, prediction at ungaged locations, and uncertainty quantification. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DeepONet-based workflow using an existing large model ensemble created for an eastern U.S. watershed that is instrumented with 10 streamflow gages. Results suggest DeepONet achieves high efficiency in learning an ML surrogate model from the model ensemble, with the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency exceeding 0.9 on holdout test sets. Parameter inference, carried out using the trained DeepONet surrogate model and genetic algorithm, also yields robust results. Additionally, we formulate and train a separate DeepONet model for physics-informed, seq-to-seq streamflow forecasting, which further reduces biases in the pre-trained DeepONet surrogate model. While this study focuses primarily on a single watershed, our approach is general and may be extended to enable learning from model ensembles across multiple basins or models. Thus, this research represents a significant contribution to the application of hybrid machine learning in hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing inference of segmentation on high-resolution images in MLExchange

MLExchange is a machine learning (ML) operations platform providing web user-interfaces (UIs) for data visualization and analysis pipelines at synchrotron facilities. Among these UIs is the segmentation app which helps synchrotron users utilize ML algorithms to automatically segment high-resolution scientific images with minimal manual annotation effort. In this work, we share code optimizations that significantly speed up the segmentation inference workflow of large data in short time. By optimizing the sequence of CPU-GPU data transfers and introducing CPU parallelization to key operations, we improve the per-device, per-image frame computational efficiency and observe close to 3×$$\times$$ speedup over the original segmentation inference workflow run time when utilizing a single GPU. Further adaptations enabling multi-GPU inference yield more than 40×$$\times$$ speedup with 100 GPUs compared to the optimized single GPU inference workflow. This acceleration of the segmentation inference workflow will provide MLExchange users with easy access to segmentation results with little wait time.

Lu, Shizhao↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

WHOLESCALE - Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations And Lessen Expenses (Final Technical Report 2020 - 2024)

The WHOLESCALE acronym stands for Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations and Lessen Expenses. The goal of the WHOLESCALE project is to simulate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio in Nevada, United States. To reach this goal, the WHOLESCALE team has developed a methodology to incorporate and interpret data from four methods of measurement into a multi-physics model that couples thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (T H-M) processes. The WHOLESCALE team has applied this methodology at the San Emidio geothermal field, located ~100 km north of Reno, Nevada in the northwestern Basin and Range province. The WHOLESCALE team includes 30 individuals working at two universities, two national laboratories, and one industry partner. Two master-degree students and five post-doctoral researchers have gained professional experience and earned partial financial support via the WHOLESCALE project. The WHOLESCALE team has taken advantage of the perturbations created by changes in pumping operations during planned shutdowns in 2016, 2021, and 2022 to infer temporal changes in the state of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio, Nevada, U.S. The WHOLESCALE results support the working hypothesis that increasing pore-fluid pressure reduces the effective normal stress acting across fault zones. During normal operations, pumping in deep production wells decreases fluid pressures and thus increases the effective normal stresses on faults, reducing microseismicity. During planned shutdowns, the cessation of production increases pore-fluid pressure and reduces effective normal stress. The WHOLESCALE products generated during the 4-year period between 2020 and 2024 include: three articles published in the open-access, peer-reviewed scientific literature, two master’s theses, 20 presentations or papers at scientific conferences, and 17 data sets available on public repositories. The WHOLESCALE project has been completed in two phases that included three performance periods separated by two Go/No-go Stage Gate Reviews. Tasks were classified by data type (i.e., Geologic Structure, Borehole, Geodesy, Hydrology, Seismology, and Modeling). The first phase of the project started July 31, 2020 and included ongoing project coordination (Task 1), a project kickoff (Task 2), analysis of existing data (Task 3), development of the initial stress model & deployment design (Task 4), and Go/No-go Decision Point #1 (Task 5). Phase II began with implementing the 2022 deployment (Task 6), followed by Go/No-go Decision Point #2 (Task 7) The remainder of Phase II consisted of analyzing data collected during deployment (Task 8), calibration of the stress model on all observations (Task 9), and the Final Review (August 23, 2024) & Reporting (Task 10).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conin

SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prime VI

SAND2025-03757O Prime VI is a distribution-of-disease outbreak model calibration code based on variational inference. It accompanies a publication for submission to Statistics in Medicine journal, and the code will be maintained for open-source use on Sandia's GitLab. The software provides methods for calibrating an epidemiological model to measured case-count data for a multitude of correlated spatial regions. The code solves a Bayesian inverse problem for model calibration where the posterior over-model parameters are approximated through a custom implementation of variational inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time inference and extrapolation with Time-Conditioned UNet: Applications in hypersonic flows, incompressible flows, and global temperature forecasting

Neural Operators are fast and accurate surrogates for nonlinear mappings between functional spaces within training domains. Extrapolation beyond the training domain remains a grand challenge across all application areas. We present Time-Conditioned UNet (TC-UNet) as an operator learning method to solve time-dependent PDEs continuously in time without any temporal discretization, including in extrapolation scenarios. TC-UNet incorporates the temporal evolution of the PDE into its architecture by combining a parameter conditioning approach with the attention mechanism from the Transformer architecture. After training, TC-UNet makes real-time inferences on an arbitrary temporal grid. We demonstrate its extrapolation capability on a climate problem by estimating the global temperature for several years and also for inviscid hypersonic flow around a double cone. We propose different training strategies involving temporal bundling and sub-sampling. We demonstrate performance improvements for several benchmarks, performing extrapolation for long time intervals and zero-shot super-resolution time.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

A survey on degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance in wind energy systems

Wind energy generation proliferated over the past decades, introducing unique challenges and opportunities for failure prediction, operation and maintenance. Decision-makers are continuously looking into new methods to infer failure mechanisms and behaviors of wind turbine components to detect and intervene in the failures before they happen. Evidently, degradation modeling and prognosis become engaging topics for researchers and practitioners to prevent catastrophic failures. Prognostics-driven approaches predict the time of failure for the components (e.g., predicting remaining useful life), which provides significant insights for scheduling of operations and maintenance activities. Integrating these prognostics-driven insights into wind farm operations and maintenance presents a substantial challenge, demanding careful consideration of numerous factors such as accessibility, crew routing, and spare part logistics. This study provides state-of-the-art review for degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance techniques for wind energy systems. The discussed techniques align with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), by enhancing effectiveness and sustainability of wind energy operations. This work also showcases open research questions related to degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance.

Altinpulluk, Nur Banu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analog Systems for Edge Optimization

Over the past decade, analog computing has the subject of substantial research interest providing a path toward improved computational efficiency in the post-Dennard era. Analog matrix vector multiplication (MVM) accelerators provide a popular approach given the ubiquity of MVM operations in numerous applications. However, historically analog computing systems can struggle with applications requiring high precision due to the inherent susceptibility of these systems to analog non-idealities. Therefore, prior work on analog systems has focused either on applications known to be tolerant of limited precision (e.g., neural network inference), or using expensive techniques to emulate high-precision using many analog MVM operations. In this work, we propose an alternative approach. Motivated by recent advances in inexact nonlinear solvers and optimizers, we explore the potential of co-designing optimization algorithms which can take full advantage of the fundamentally inexact analog MVM operations. To enable these co-designed algorithms we also develop a general mathematical theory of the precision and energy efficiency of analog operations, and a new system architecture for tightly-coupled analog and digital computation. Finally, we examine the applicability of analog computing to a wider class of symmetric positive definite systems and find potential in using analog operations as a sparse approximate inverse preconditioner. With these core innovations, this project provides a path toward effectively implementing optimization algorithms on power-constrained autonomous and semi-autonomous systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗