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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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28 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating the XENON1T low-energy electronic recoil excess using NEST

The search for dark matter, the missing mass of the Universe, is one of the most active fields of study within particle physics. The XENON1T experiment recently observed a 3.5⁢𝜎 excess potentially consistent with dark matter, or with solar axions. Here, we will use the Noble Element Simulation Technique (NEST) software to simulate the XENON1T detector, reproducing the excess. We utilize different detector efficiency and energy reconstruction models, but they primarily impact sub-keV energies and cannot explain the XENON1T excess. However, using NEST, we can reproduce their excess in multiple, unique ways, most easily via the addition of 31 ± 11 37 Ar decays. Furthermore, this results in new, modified background models, reducing the significance of the excess to ≤2.2⁢𝜎 at least using non-Profile Likelihood Ratio (PLR) methods. This is independent confirmation that the excess is a real effect, but potentially explicable by known physics. Many cross-checks of our 37 Ar hypothesis are presented.

particle dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Allocating Reserves in Active Distribution Systems for Tertiary Frequency Regulation

This paper proposes a cooperative game theory-based approach for reserve optimization to enable distributed energy resources (DERs) participate in tertiary frequency regulation. Tertiary frequency regulation schemes ensure that reserve requirements of primary and secondary frequency regulation are fulfilled with a minimum cost. While the available reserve from a single distribution system may not suffice tertiary frequency regulation, stacked reserve from several distribution systems can enable them participate in tertiary frequency regulation at scale. In this paper, a two-stage strategy is proposed to effectively and precisely allocate spinning reserve requirement from each DER in distribution systems. In the first stage, two types of characteristic functions are computed: worthiness index (WI) and power loss reduction (PLR). In the second stage, the equivalent Shapley values are computed based on the characteristic functions, which are used to determine distribution factors for reserve allocation among DERs. The effectiveness of the proposed method for allocating reserves among DERs is demonstrated through several case studies on modified versions of the IEEE 13-node and 33-node distribution systems.

Gautam, Mukesh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Signal Decomposition Analysis and Anomaly Detection in Photovoltaic Systems

With the rapid expansion of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants, it is paramount for solar stakeholders to understand the reliability and efficiency of their plants to inform maintenance decisions, increase production, and understand the design factors that impact performance. Diagnosing underperformance in PV plants is challenging due to the relatively few monitoring points with respect to the large geographic footprint of the plant. This work introduces a cutting-edge method that transforms the analysis and management of key factors influencing PV plant performance, including performance loss rate (PLR), recoverable soiling, and major system changes. Identifying these factors is critical for deriving actionable insights. Leveraging advanced analytical techniques such as wavelet transformation, robust regression, and extreme point analysis, this approach provides a nuanced understanding of these factors. This method has been tested across two synthetic datasets and one real dataset, consistently surpassing existing benchmarks by achieving a lower median mean absolute error and reduced error variability across all comparable components.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PVplr-stGNN 0.1.10

PV Performance Loss Rate Estimation using Spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks PVplr-stGNN is a Python 3 package developed by the SDLE Research Center at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland OH. This repository contains the full source PVplr-stGNN package. The package contains the PV-stGAE for missingness data detection and imputation and PV-DynGNN for PLR estimation.

Fan, Yangxin [Case Western Reserve Univ., Clevelan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Models of Active Degradation Mechanisms and Pathways for Service Life Prediction of Indoor and Outdoor PV Modules

ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.

network model, degradation, photovoltaic, solar↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field studies of PERC and Al-BSF PV module performance loss using power and I-V timeseries

We have studied the degradation of both full-sized modules and minimodules with PERC and Al-BSF cell variations in fields while considering packaging strategies. We demonstrate the implementations of data-driven tools to analyze large numbers of modules and volumes of timeseries data to obtain the performance loss and degradation pathways. This data analysis pipeline enables quantitative comparison and ranking of module variations, as well as mapping and deeper understanding of degradation mechanisms. The best performing module is a half-cell PERC, which shows a performance loss rate ( PLR ) of −0.27 ± 0.12% per annum (%/ a ) after initial losses have stabilized. Minimodule studies showed inconsistent performance rankings due to significant power loss contributions via series resistance, however, recombination losses remained stable. Overall, PERC cell variations outperform or are not distinguishable from Al-BSF cell variations.

Curran, Alan J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Framework for Conotoxin Class and Molecular Target Prediction

Conotoxins are small and highly potent neurotoxic peptides derived from the venom of marine cone snails which have captured the interest of the scientific community due to their pharmacological potential. These toxins display significant sequence and structure diversity, which results in a wide range of specificities for several different ion channels and receptors. Despite the recognized importance of these compounds, our ability to determine their binding targets and toxicities remains a significant challenge. Predicting the target receptors of conotoxins, based solely on their amino acid sequence, remains a challenge due to the intricate relationships between structure, function, target specificity, and the significant conformational heterogeneity observed in conotoxins with the same primary sequence. We have previously demonstrated that the inclusion of post-translational modifications, collisional cross sections values, and other structural features, when added to the standard primary sequence features, improves the prediction accuracy of conotoxins against non-toxic and other toxic peptides across varied datasets and several different commonly used machine learning classifiers. Here, we present the effects of these features on conotoxin class and molecular target predictions, in particular, predicting conotoxins that bind to nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs). We also demonstrate the use of the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE)-Tomek in balancing the datasets while simultaneously making the different classes more distinct by reducing the number of ambiguous samples which nearly overlap between the classes. In predicting the alpha, mu, and omega conotoxin classes, the SMOTE-Tomek PCA PLR model, using the combination of the SS and P feature sets establishes the best performance with an overall accuracy (OA) of 95.95%, with an average accuracy (AA) of 93.04%, and an f1 score of 0.959. Using this model, we obtained sensitivities of 98.98%, 89.66%, and 90.48% when predicting alpha, mu, and omega conotoxin classes, respectively. Similarly, in predicting conotoxins that bind to nAChRs, the SMOTE-Tomek PCA SVM model, which used the collisional cross sections (CCSs) and the P feature sets, demonstrated the highest performance with 91.3% OA, 91.32% AA, and an f1 score of 0.9131. The sensitivity when predicting conotoxins that bind to nAChRs is 91.46% with a 91.18% sensitivity when predicting conotoxins that do not bind to nAChRs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

PV Lifetime Project - 2025 NLR Annual Report

DOE's PV Lifetime project was initiated in 2016 with the goal of accurately characterizing the early-life evolution of photovoltaic (PV) field performance. Different PV cell and module technologies result in different initial degradation rates due to effects like light-induced degradation (LID) and light and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). To accurately characterize the initial field degradation of maximum power (Pmp) requires the use of high-accuracy indoor IV curve measurements at standard test conditions. Therefore, PV modules involved in this study are removed from the field once or twice per year and brought indoors for measurement under constant temperature and irradiance conditions. Overall annual degradation rates are as follows: our first modules to be deployed (Jinko, Trina, QCells) have annual median degradation rate between -0.4%/yr and -0.5%/yr mainly concentrated in the first year. Mission Solar, LG and Panasonic modules are all displaying modest degradation, better than -0.3% / year. Indeed, Mission Solar fielded modules degraded less than their control modules which remain indoors and un-exposed. This is also true for the LONGi monofacial modules, which had some field degradation, but not as much as the degradation of the indoor control modules. The LONGi bifacial modules on the other hand have degraded more in the field than their monofacial counterparts, although still a modest amount (-0.4 %/yr). Of the four newest module types in the study, only one has had better than average degradation. REC360NP2 (N-type TOPCon) had a slight performance increase over the first year and a half of field deployment. For the other three new module types (plus one older module type), degradation was more rapid. In our study of 16 module types, four have demonstrated degradation faster than -1%/yr: two N-type Heterojunction, one PERC bifacial and one PERC shingled module. The two heterojunction modules in our study are degrading the most rapidly. Sunpreme n-HIT bifacial modules are showing a loss rate around -1.5%/yr, for over -10% total to date. This is largely attributed to loss in front-side Isc. This is distinct from the REC 405AA-Pure modules which have degraded -6.8% in only a year and a half, for an annualized decline of -3.9 %/yr. For this module type, the decline is roughly half in Voc, with the remaining split between FF and Isc. Of the remaining two module types, Prism Solar PERC bifacial has declined -5% total since 2019, although this loss appears to have stabilized in the most recent measurement. The Solaria PowerX-400R Shingled module type has also lost around -3.2% in the first 1.5 years of field deployment. It remains to be seen if these losses will continue with time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative 2026 Update

We provide an update on the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative at the 2026 PV Reliability Workshop. Our latest runs incorporate additional data sources and an integrated analysis pipeline run on our Kestrel HPC cluster. Initial degradation findings suggest that single-axis tracked PV systems exhibit higher performance loss rates than fixed-tilt systems, an increase of 0.5 %/yr, almost double. We discuss multiple methods for identifying stuck tracker rows, which are suspected to be a contributor to the enhanced degradation. Through satellite image detection and data-driven approaches we address the topic of identifying when stuck trackers are occuring and to what extent the problem exists. Preliminary results suggest that the increased performance loss detected for the tracked systems would be consistent with stuck tracker rows affecting on the order of 5% - 10% of the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automating Detection and Diagnosis of Faults, Failures, and Underperformance in PV Plants

The project developed hybrid physics-based and machine-learning methods for near-real-time detection of balance-of-system faults (e.g., string, combiner, and tracker outages) in utility-scale Photovoltaic plants, achieving over 50% true positive rates with under 10% false positives and significantly reducing engineering setup time. In the extended phase, the scope expanded to plant-level underperformance analysis and industry benchmarking through the SUPER.epri.com platform. SUPER standardizes data processing and performance metrics across more than 9 GWac and 120+ plants, enabling robust comparisons and insights into loss rates, inverter downtime, and capacity degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗