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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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30 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Kinematics of the 2015 San Ramon, California earthquake swarm: Implications for fault zone structure and driving mechanisms

Earthquake swarms represent a sudden increase in seismicity that may indicate a heterogeneous fault-zone, the involvement of crustal fluids and/or slow fault slip. Swarms sometimes precede major earthquake ruptures. An earthquake swarm occurred in October 2015 near San Ramon, California in an extensional right step-over region between the northern Calaveras Fault and the Concord–Mt. Diablo fault zone, which has hosted ten major swarms since 1970. The 2015 San Ramon swarm is examined here from 11 October through 18 November using template matching analysis. The relocated seismicity catalog contains ~4000 events with magnitudes between -0.2 < M d < 3.6. The swarm illuminated three sub-parallel, southwest striking and northwest dipping fault segments of km-scale dimension and thickness of up to 200 m. The segments contain coexisting populations of different focal-mechanisms, suggesting a complex fault zone structure with several sets of en échelon fault orientations. The migration of events along the three planar structures indicates a complex fluid and faulting interaction processes. We searched for correlations between seismic activity and tidal stresses and found some suggestive features, but nothing that we can be confident is statistically significant.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Residential Mobility and Lung Cancer Risk: Data-Driven Exploration Using Internet Sources

Frequent relocation has been linked to health decline, particularly with respect to emotional and psychological wellbeing. In this paper we investigate whether there is an association between frequent relocation and lung cancer risk. For the initial investigation we leverage two online data sources to collect cancer and control subjects using web crawling and tailored text mining. The two data sources share different strengths and weaknesses in terms of the amount of detail, population representation, and sample size. One data source includes online obituaries. The second data source includes augmented LinkedIn profiles. For each data source, the subjects spatiotemporal history is reconstructed from the available information provided in the obituaries and from the education and work experience provided in the LinkedIn profiles. The study shows that lung cancer subjects have higher mobility frequency than the control group. This trend is consistent for both data sources.

Yoon, Hong-Jun↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Aerobic Standards for Lunar Surface Extravehicular Activities

Introduction: As NASA prepares to return to the Moon, astronauts will need to be physically primed to successfully execute Extravehicular Activities (EVA) on the Lunar surface. Compared to past Apollo missions, Artemis missions will include EVAs of increased physical demand, frequency, intensity, and duration, thus requiring adequate fitness to successfully and safely complete mission objectives. The physical demand associated with partial gravity (g) EVAs on the Moon is expected to be greater compared to microgravity EVAs based on initial workload estimation. Currently, aerobic fitness standards for partial g EVAs are not well supported by high-fidelity data and require further research for establishing standards to protect crew health and performance during Lunar surface missions. Therefore, the aim of this investigation is to characterize metabolic data from Lunar analog simulations and in-flight crew population aerobic capacity data to validate the current NASA 3001 standard for celestial partial g aerobic fitness (aerobic capacity (VO_2pk) ≥36.5ml/kg/min). Methods: In order to evaluate aerobic fitness requirements for Lunar EVAs, the following were performed: 1) preliminary analysis of long-duration (6 hr) EVA analog simulations in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) and the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) to evaluate expected metabolic rates for 1/6 g EVAs (NBL: n=1 female; ARGOS: n=1 male) and 2) assessment of the current NASA 3001 celestial surface EVA aerobic standard (aerobic capacity (VO_2pk) ≥36.5ml/kg/min) with data from an ISS astronaut population (n=30 male + 13 female) captured before and during space flight (flight day 15). Preliminary Results: Average fractional aerobic capacity during simulated EVAs were 33%±7% VO_2pk and 23.3±7% VO_2pk in the NBL and ARGOS, respectively. This was within a previously predicted 30–40% sustainable work rate. Average metabolic rates for some tasks performed in the NBL, such as traverse (40.4% VO_2pk) and ingress (47.1% VO_2pk) were higher than the predicted sustainable work range. In ARGOS, the tasks with the greatest metabolic rates were object relocation (34.2% VO_2pk) and incapacitated crew rescue (27.0% VO_2pk). Characterization of ISS crewmember aerobic capacity determined that the average preflight VO_2pk was 42.1±5.4 ml/kg/min for females and 37.5±5.4 ml/kg/min for males. At preflight, 21.5% of crewmembers were below the 36.5 ml/kg/min in-mission aerobic standard for celestial surface EVA as outlined in NASA-STD-3001. In-flight, both female and male crewmembers experienced reductions in VO_2pk (11.7% and 10.9%, respectively), such that, during the mission, 62% of crewmembers were below the standard aerobic capacity level for celestial surface EVAs. Conclusions: Our preliminary data suggest that while average metabolic rates for simulated Lunar EVA fall within the 30–40% sustainable work range, task specific metabolic rates exceed this range and may indicate that greater fitness is necessary for more strenuous tasks expected to be performed on the Lunar surface. Additionally, deconditioning due to space flight results in most crewmembers falling below the current celestial partial g EVA standard, which may increase risk to crew health and performance and completing mission objectives for surface missions. Further research is necessary in Artemis-specific analog environments to validate the current NASA-3001 aerobic standard for celestial EVAs. Additionally, work is ongoing to validate the current NASA-3001 strength standard for celestial EVAs.

N.C. Strock↗
DOE OSTI2022

ShupeTurner cloud microphysics

This product is the ShupeTurner cloud microphysics product derived for the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic. The product includes time-height derivations of the cloud type (phase type) and the condensed water content and characteristic effective particle size for liquid and ice hydrometeor populations. Additionally, it includes the vertical integral of the condensed water content for liquid and ice, i.e., the liquid water path and ice water path. These are derived using a combination of sensors, including: cloud radar, depolarization lidar, microwave radiometer, ceilometer, and radiosondes. During MOSAiC, these sensors were installed and operated onboard the Polarstern icebreaker while within the Arctic sea ice. Most data were obtained while Polarstern was moored to the MOSAiC sea ice floe, passively drifting through the Arctic. However, the data from 16 May 2020 - 17 June 2020 and 31 July 2020 - 21 August 2020 were obtained while Polarstern was underway transiting through the sea ice during relocations of the expedition. General details of the retrieval algorithm, its application, and uncertainties are provided in Shupe et al. (2015), with the cloud classification being described in more detail in Shupe (2007). General details about the MOSAiC expedition including instruments, locations, and meteorological context is provided in Shupe et al. (2022).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Orange County Photovoltaic Project & Educational COmponent

The purpose of this report is to discuss the projects implemented, utilizing Department of Energy grant funds, to support the use and understanding of renewable energy in Orange County, Florida and the Greater Orlando Area. Orange County is located in the State of Florida and is most popularly referred to as Orlando. The greater Orlando area’s current population is 1,225,267 and in 2015 was the first destination to surpass 60 million visitors. Orange County utilized grant funds to add to the growing demand for access to charging stations by installing one level 2 dual NovaCharge CT4021 electric vehicle charging station at the Orange County/University of Florida Cooperative Extension Center. The charging station is considered a “smart” charger connected to a central network operated by a third party. Data collected includes the number of charging sessions, session start and end times, the electricity usage, greenhouse gases saved and other pertinent data used for reporting purposes. Orange County continues to support the use of electric vehicles in Metro Orlando and this project continues to bring awareness to our public regarding using alternative vehicles. Additionally, we offer all visitors to the Orange County/University of Florida Cooperative Extension Center free charges for their electric vehicles 24 hours a day. Since the operation of the charging station there have been 52 unique driver users, a total of 532.2258 kg of greenhouse gas savings and 159.03 gallons of gasoline savings. The installation of the additional electric vehicle charging station is part of a county-wide goal of promoting implementation of renewable energy technologies as well as supporting the use of electric vehicles including the Drive Electric Orlando & Florida programs. http://driveelectricorlando.com/ & ; http://www.driveelectricflorida.org/ . Grant funds were also used for Outreach and Educational efforts. Educational efforts about renewable energy were accomplished through the continued support as well as a proposed expansion and potential relocation of the Climate Change Education Center. The growth of the Climate Change Education Center focused on 2 educational subsectors. The first educational sector focused on an apprenticeship with university students. The second sector Orange County partnered with a hospitality college that held seminars to educate students in sustainability best practices that would influence the industry as a whole as students take jobs around the U.S. and other parts of the world. Orange County completed five of the originally proposed six educational seminars. The first seminar focused on community based social marketing techniques for driving sustainable behavior changes. The second seminar held was a green team workshop. The third seminar focused on urban sustainability planning. The fourth and fifth seminars held were Florida Energy Code workshops for building inspectors. A sixth transit oriented development seminar in partnership with Rollins College was explored, but was not conducted because the proposed on campus venue was not accessible for an extended period of time due to renovations. Additionally, an ENERGY STAR training program was conducted with students from the University of Central Florida; three of the five buildings assessed received ENERGY STAR ratings; one student completed the training and received their certification as an ENERGY STAR Specialist. Background: Location: Orange County is located in the central region of the State of Florida and is most popularly known for including the City of Orlando. The greater Orlando area’s current population is 1,225,267 and is home to large corporations such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios Orlando, Ritz Carlton, Darden Restaurants, and the nation’s second largest convention center. Opportunities Identified: Encouraging Sustainability in Major Sectors: The Central Florida economy is largely dependent on the hospitality industry and in 2015 it was the first destination to surpass 60 million visitors. With over 60 million visitors each year, 120,000 hotel rooms, 4,000 restaurants, and 75 theme parks and attractions, the local hospitality industry provided a wealth of opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through building energy efficiency and renewable energy. Accordingly, Central Florida is an ideal training ground for teaching best practices for sustainability focused on the hospitality industry. Meeting the Growing Demand for Electric Vehicle Infrastructure: According to the 2014 U.S Clean Tech Leadership Index Report, nationwide electric vehicle ownership in the top 50 largest metro areas increased sharply in 2013; the Orlando Metro Area was ranked #5 in the nation in in terms of electric vehicle charging stations per one million people. Additionally, the Orange County 2014-2015 Annual Sustainable Orange County Report indicated there are 300 electric vehicle charging stations in Central Florida (roughly 300 charging stations within ~70 mile radius available to our residents of Orange County). By increasing and improving access to charging stations, Orange County supports the growing demand for renewable energy technologies. Project Achievements/Accomplishments: Installed an Electric Charging Station: Orange County utilized grant funds to install one level 2 dual NovaCharge CT4021 electric vehicle charging station at the Orange County/University of Florida Cooperative Extension Center. The charging station is considered a “smart” charger connected to a central network operated by a third party that monitors the number of charging sessions, session start and end times, the electricity usage, greenhouse gases saved and other pertinent data. During the six months of operation of the charging station there have been 52 unique driver users of the charging station; a total of 532.2258 kg of greenhouse gas savings and 159.03 gallons of gasoline savings. Operation and Potential Relocation of the Orange County Climate Change Education Center: The Climate Change Education Center, originally located within the Orange County Convention Center, served as a central place to inform and educate commercial and residential sectors of environmental, health, and economic benefits of renewable energy, energy efficiency, and greenhouse gas emission reductions. Grant funds were used to pay for the rent required to maintain a lease at the Convention Center, conduct five educational workshops, and for planned upgrades to the Center displays highlighting a number of energy efficiency and renewable energy projects implemented at the Orange County Convention Center and Downtown Orange County. An initial design concept for an upgraded Climate Change Education Center and educational displays was proposed. However, after the Convention Center determined the space occupied by the Climate Change Education Center; a feasibility study for relocation to the proposed area was conducted in October 2013. In December 2013, it was determined that the desired location of the for the Climate Change Education Center at the Orange County Extension Education Center provided too many construction challenges for relocation with too many building retrofits and access problems, including lack of access for loading and unloading exhibits as well as roof drainage relocations and sewer service connection issues. Another suitable location for relocating the Climate Change Education Center could not be located so the project was terminated. The Climate Change Education Center is no longer in existence in Orange County and has been eliminated. Grant funds were used to pay for marketing services for a state wide marketing program including solar & other renewable energy technologies for rebranding and developing marketing materials including web site design and updating. A website was maintained and updated the www.PowerUpGreenEnergy.com website (no longer in service). Sustainability Training for the Hospitality Industry and Major Sectors: To introduce energy efficiency and renewable energy concepts to the hospitality industry, Orange County partnered with a hospitality college that held seminars to educate students in sustainability best practices that would influence the industry as a whole as students take jobs around the U.S. and other parts of the world. Orange County completed five of the originally proposed six education seminars. Seminar topics included: driving sustainable behavior change through community based social marketing; green team programs; urban sustainability planning; and Florida Energy Code workshops for building inspectors. In partnership with Rollins College, a sixth seminar focused on transit-oriented development was explored, but was not conducted due to extended renovations at the proposed on-campus venue. Green Job Training Development: To promote green industry development and on-the-job training in occupations that encourage energy efficiency and resource reduction, Orange County piloted an ENERGY STAR training and apprenticeship program with students from the University of Central Florida; three students applied for the program; one student completed the training and received their certification as an ENERGY STAR specialist; three of the five buildings assessed received ENERGY STAR Ratings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Do Biological and Bedsite Characteristics Influence Survival of Neonatal White-Tailed Deer?

Coyotes recently expanded into the eastern U.S. and potentially have caused localized white-tailed deer population declines. Research has focused on quantifying coyote predation on neonates, but little research has addressed the potential influence of bedsite characteristics on survival. In 2011 and 2012, we radiocollared 65 neonates, monitored them intensively for 16 weeks, and assigned mortality causes.We used Program MARK to estimate survival to 16 weeks and included biological covariates (i.e., sex, sibling status [whether or not it had a sibling], birth weight, and Julian date of birth). Survival to 16 weeks was 0.141 (95% CI = 0.075-0.249) and the top model included only sibling status, which indicated survival was lower for neonates that had a sibling. Predation was the leading cause of mortality (35 of 55; 64%) and coyotes were responsible for the majority of depredations (30 of 35; 86%). Additionally, we relocated neonates for the first 10 days of life and measured distance to firebreak, visual obstruction, and plant diversity at bedsites. Survival of predation to 10 days (0.726; 95% CI = 0.586-0.833) was weakly associated with plant diversity at bedsites but not related to visual obstruction. Our results indicate that neonate survival was low and coyote predation was an important source of mortality, which corroborates several recent studies from the region. Additionally, we detected only weak support for bedsite cover as a covariate to neonate survival, which indicates that mitigating effects of coyote predation on neonates may be more complicated than simply managing for increased hiding cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

How Successful Site Preparation Work at a Large, Commercial, Hazardous and Toxic Waste Site Can Benefit DOE Cleanup Projects - 18111

Jacobs recently completed site preparation work supporting the private commercial development of a world-scale petrochemical complex (an 'ethylene cracker' to produce the primary building block for many forms of plastic) in Monaca, Pennsylvania - the first major U.S. project of its kind outside the Gulf Coast region in 20 years and one of the largest (multi-billion dollar) construction projects in the eastern U.S. Prior to beginning construction on the petrochemical complex, the site's previous large, industrial zinc smelter operations had to be decommissioned and the facilities had to be removed. During the previous 80 years, the smelting operations at the site were used to produce zinc, lead, mercury, and sulfuric acid (a by-product of smelting). The smelting operations left landfills and industrial soil over a large area that had to be removed or closed under regulatory review to allow development across the 81,000 m{sup 2} (200-acre) industrial site located near a major river and local populations. In order to meet Pennsylvania's site-specific Land Recycling Program (commonly referred to as 'Act 2') legislative requirements, the direct contact pathway for landfill soil and slag was removed or mitigated. The site preparation work, or 'Early Works', started in January 2015. As the selected Early Works overall Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Management (EPCM) contractor, Jacobs performed the front end engineering and design. Subsequently, Jacobs had overall responsibility for procurement, construction management, health and safety, quality, security, and environmental services for the entire site and all contractors. The Early Works project included eight separate work scope packages: 1) Site Preparation, 2) Site Development, 3) Marine Works, 4) Rail Works, 5) Road Works and Offsite Utilities, 6) Site Security, 7) Construction Facilities, and 8) High Voltage Line Relocation. The Early Works scope was successfully completed in 2017. The challenges faced by this privately funded commercial project have much in common with large DOE and government construction projects. This paper explores lessons learned from the project and compares how project challenges were addressed on this private commercial project with those anticipated at large DOE/government construction and remediation sites, particularly those in the areas of Safety, Logistics, Infrastructure, and Stakeholder Involvement. The identification of best practices demonstrated on this successful project are shared for the purpose of bringing outside, commercial perspectives to ongoing or planned DOE/government construction projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Burnup LOCA Burst Susceptibility BISON Analysis in PWRs and BWRs

Accurately assessing high-burnup fuel behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) is essential for understanding fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) risks across the US light-water reactor fleet. This work updates previous Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program multiphysics LOCA analyses for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) and a boiling water reactor (BWR) by incorporating recent model and material property advancements in the BISON fuel performance code, including a high-burnup structure (HBS) model, revised cladding burst criteria, and updated thermal–mechanical correlations. This update was needed to support ongoing industry initiatives and upcoming regulatory changes. Full-core, rod-resolved operating histories generated using Virtual Environment for Reactor Analysis (VERA) and system-level LOCA conditions obtained from TRACE were applied to statistically representative rod samples in BISON to evaluate burst behavior and FFRD susceptibility. These calculations used two cladding burst correlations and three fuel pulverization models so that the predictions of these models could be compared. The updated PWR simulations show markedly improved numerical stability as the number of crashed simulations decreased by 95% compared to the previous study, and hence higher confidence in results. The updated PWR simulations predicted cladding bursts exclusively among once-burned, high-power rods, with two different cladding burst models identifying the same burst-susceptible population. Resulting FFRD susceptibility estimates are significantly reduced compared with earlier studies, driven by cooler predicted fuel and plenum temperatures, lower hoop strains, and reduced fission gas release in the updated models. In contrast, none of the BWR rods were predicted to burst under either burst criterion, reaffirming minimal BWR FFRD susceptibility even with updated HBS and material models. Comparisons between the PWR and BWR end-of-cycle predictions are made. Comparison with prior work highlights significant shifts in PWR fuel performance metrics and confirmation of earlier BWR conclusions. Overall, the updated results underscore the importance of having high-resolution detailed modeling capability and continuously integrating evolving material models and physics into high-resolution multiphysics simulations. The unified assessment presented here strengthens confidence in predicting high-burnup LOCA behavior by improving agreement between different cladding burst correlations. These results also provide an improved foundation for future BISON model development, FFRD susceptibility calculations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Shallow Lunar Seismic Activity and the Current Stress State of the Moon

A vast, global network of more than 3200 lobate thrust fault scarps has been revealed in high resolution Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) images. The fault scarps are very young, less than 50 Ma, based on their small scale and crisp appearance, crosscutting relations with small-diameter impact craters, and rates of infilling of associated small, shallow graben and may be actively forming today. The population of young thrust fault scarps provides a window into the recent stress state of the Moon and offers insight into the origin of global lunar stresses. The distribution of orientations of the fault scarps is non-random, inconsistent with isotropic stresses from late-stage global contraction as the sole source of stress. Modeling shows that tidal stresses contribute significantly to the current stress state of the lunar crust. Tidal stresses (orbital recession and diurnal tides) superimposed on stresses from global contraction result in non-isotropic compressional stress and may produce thrust faults consistent with lobate scarp orientations. At any particular point on the lunar surface, peak compressive stress will be reached at a certain time in the diurnal cycle. Coseismic slip events on currently active thrust faults are expected to be triggered when peak stresses are reached. Analysis of the timing of the 28 the shallow moonquakes recorded by the Apollo seismic network shows that 19 indeed occur when the Moon is closer to apogee, while only 9 shallow events occur when the Moon is closer to perigee. Here we report efforts to refine the model for the current stress state of the Moon by investigating the contribution of polar wander. Progress on relocating the epicentral locations of the shallow moonquakes using an algorithm designed for sparse networks is also reported.

structure↗
NASA NTRS2017

Shallow Lunar Seismic Activity and the Current Stress State of the Moon

A vast, global network of more than 3200 lobate thrust fault scarps has been revealed in high resolution Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) images. The fault scarps very young, less than 50 Ma, based on their small scale and crisp appearance, crosscutting relations with small-diameter impact craters, and rates of infilling of associated small, shallow graben and may be actively forming today. The population of young thrust fault scarps provides a window into the recent stress state of the Moon and offers insight into the origin of global lunar stresses. The distribution of orientations of the fault scarps is non-random, inconsistent with isotropic stresses from late-stage global contraction as the sole source of stress Modeling shows that tidal stresses contribute significantly to the current stress state of the lunar crust. Tidal stresses (orbital recession and diurnal tides) superimposed on stresses from global contraction result in non-isotropic compressional stress and thrust faults consistent with lobate scarp orientations. Stresses due to orbital recession do not change with orbital position, thus it is with the addition of diurnal stresses that peak stresses are reached. At apogee, diurnal and recession stresses are most compressive near the tidal axis, while at perigee they are most compressive 90 degrees away from the tidal axis. Coseismic slip events on currently active thrust faults are expected to be triggered when peak stresses are reached. Analysis of the timing of the 28 the shallow moonquakes recorded by the Apollo seismic network shows that 19 indeed occur when the Moon is closer to apogee, while only 9 shallow events occur when the Moon is closer to perigee. Here we show the results of relocating the shallow moonquake using an algorithm designed for sparse networks to better constrain their epicentral locations in order to compare them with stress models. The model for the current stress state of the Moon is refined by investigating the contribution of polar wander.

siesmology↗
DOE OSTI2018

HuR translocation to the cytoplasm of cancer cells in actin-independent manner

Highlights: • Molecular transport system of HuR could be different in individual cancer. • Cancer cells show alternative HuR transport when cytoskeleton structure is impaired. • Oral and cervical cancer implicate a microfilament independent HuR transport. Human antigen R (HuR) is a RNA-binding protein, which binds to the AU-rich element (ARE) in the 3′-untranslated region (3′-UTR) of certain mRNA and is involved in the export and stabilization of ARE-mRNA. HuR constitutively relocates to the cytoplasm in many cancer cells, however the mechanism of intracellular HuR trafficking is poorly understood. To address this question, we examined the functional role of the cytoskeleton in HuR relocalization. We tested the effect of actin depolymerizing macrolide latrunculin A or myosin II ATPase activity inhibitor blebbistatin for HuR relocalization induced by the vasoactive hormone Angiotensin II in cancer and control normal cells. Western blot and confocal imaging data revealed that both inhibitors attenuated the cytoplasmic HuR in normal cells but no such alteration was observed in cancer cells. Concomitant with changes in intracellular HuR localization, both inhibitors markedly decreased the accumulation and half-lives of HuR target ARE-mRNAs in normal cells, whereas no change was observed in cancer cells. Furthermore, co-immunoprecipitation experiments with HuR proteins revealed clear physical interaction with ß-actin only in normal cells. The current study is the first to verify that cancer cells can implicate a microfilament independent HuR transport. We hypothesized that when cytoskeleton structure is impaired, cancer cells can acquire an alternative HuR trafficking strategy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Risk bases can complement dose bases for implementing and optimising a radiological protection strategy in urgent and transition emergency phases

Current radiological emergency response recommendations have been provided by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and adopted by the International Atomic Energy Agency in comprehensive Safety Standards. These standards provide dose-based guidance for decision making (e.g., on sheltering or relocation) via generic criteria in terms of effective dose in the range from 20 mSv per year, during transition from emergency to existing exposure situation, to 100 mSv, acute or annual, in the urgent phase of a nuclear accident. The purpose of this paper was to examine how such dose reference levels directly translate into radiation-related risks of the main stochastic detrimental health effects (cancer). Methodologies, provided by the World Health Organization after the Fukushima accident, for calculating the lifetime and 20 year cancer risks and for attributing relevant organ doses from effective doses, have been applied here for this purpose with new software, designed to be available for use immediately after a nuclear accident. A new feature in this software is a comprehensive accounting for uncertainty via simulation technique, so that the risks may now be presented with realistic confidence intervals. The types of cancer risks considered here are time-integrated over lifetime and the first 20 years after exposure for all solid cancers and either the most radiation-sensitive types of cancer, i.e., leukaemia and female breast cancer, or the most radiation-relevant type of cancer occurring early in life, i.e., thyroid. It is demonstrated here how reference dose levels translate differently into specific cancer risk levels (with varying confidence interval sizes), depending on age at exposure, gender, time-frame at-risk and type of cancer considered. This demonstration applies German population data and considers external exposures. Further work is required to comprehensively extend this methodology to internal exposures that are likely to be important in the early stages of a nuclear accident. A discussion is provided here on the potential for such risk-based information to be used by decision makers, in the urgent and transition phases of nuclear emergencies, to identify protective measures (e.g., sheltering, evacuation) in a differential way (i.e., for particularly susceptible sub-groups of a population).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗