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Baseflow Identification via Explainable AI With Kolmogorov‐Arnold Networks

Abstract Hydrological models often involve constitutive laws that may not be optimal in every application. We propose to replace such laws with the Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs), a class of neural networks designed to identify symbolic expressions. We demonstrate KAN's potential on the problem of baseflow identification, a notoriously challenging task plagued by significant uncertainty. KAN‐derived functional dependencies of the baseflow components on the aridity index outperform their original counterparts; they demonstrate that water availability, rather than potential evapotranspiration, drives baseflow by constraining actual evapotranspiration under arid conditions. On a test set, they increase the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) by 65%, decrease the root mean squared error by 29%, and increase the Kling‐Gupta efficiency by 34%. This superior performance is achieved while reducing the number of fitting parameters from three to two. Next, we use data from 378 catchments across the continental United States to refine the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale. The KAN‐derived equations based on the refined water balance outperform both the current aridity index model, with up to a 105% increase in NSE, and the KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. While the performance of our model and tree‐based machine learning methods is similar, KANs offer the advantage of simplicity and transparency and require no specific software or computational tools. This case study focuses on the aridity index formulation, but the approach is flexible and transferable to other hydrological processes. Plain Language Summary Equations used in hydrologic model are often suboptimal, resulting in reduced prediction accuracy and efficiency. We implemented Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KAN), a machine learning algorithm for deriving symbolic formulations, to estimate groundwater recharge and showed that it outperforms an existing state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical formulation. In hydrology, Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) are commonly used to evaluate model performance. Higher NSE and KGE values indicate better performance, while lower RMSE values are preferable. Our results show that NSE increased by 71%, RMSE decreased by 32%, and KGE improved by 25%. In addition, KAN identifies an optimal functional form and can be used to derive new analytical formulas using the prior knowledge. The KAN‐inspired equation outperformed the original formulation and reduced the fitting parameters. Furthermore, we refined the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale and showed that, based on the new water‐balance equation, KAN can derive new formulations that are superior to the original aridity index formulations (up to 105% increase in NSE) and KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. These findings highlight the significant potential of KAN to advance the scientific understanding of a wide range of hydrologic processes. Key Points Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs) enhance interpretability of machine‐learned hydrological models KAN‐derived symbolic formulations outperform state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical aridity indices KAN‐identified functional form yields an analytical index with fewer fitting parameters and improved performance

baseflow

Efficient and flexible multirate temporal adaptivity

In this work we present two new families of multirate time step adaptivity controllers, that are designed to work with embedded multirate infinitesimal (MRI) time integration methods for adapting time steps when solving problems with multiple time scales. We compare these controllers against competing approaches on two benchmark problems, showing that the proposed methods offer dramatically improved performance and flexibility. The combination of embedded MRI methods and the proposed controllers enable adaptive simulations of problems with a potentially arbitrary number of time scales, achieving high accuracy while maintaining low computational cost. Additionally, we introduce a new set of embeddings for the family of explicit multirate exponential Runge–Kutta (MERK) methods of orders 2 through 5, resulting in the first-ever fifth-order embedded MRI method. Finally, we compare the performance of a wide range of embedded MRI methods on our benchmark problems to provide guidance on how to select an appropriate MRI method and multirate controller.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

The quality/cosmology tension for a post-inflation QCD axion

Abstract It is difficult to construct a post-inflation QCD axion model that solves the axion quality problem (and hence the Strong CP problem) without introducing a cosmological disaster. In a post-inflation axion model, the axion field value is randomized during the Peccei-Quinn phase transition, and axion domain walls form at the QCD phase transition. We emphasize that the gauge equivalence of all minima of the axion potential (i.e., domain wall number equals one) is insufficient to solve the cosmological domain wall problem. The axion string on which a domain wall ends must exist as an individual object (as opposed to a multi-string state), and it must be produced in the early universe. These conditions are often not satisfied in concrete models. Post-inflation axion models also face a potential problem from fractionally charged relics; solving this problem often leads to low-energy Landau poles for Standard Model gauge couplings, reintroducing the quality problem. We study several examples, finding that models that solve the quality problem face cosmological problems, and vice versa. This is not a no-go theorem; nonetheless, we argue that it is much more difficult than generally appreciated to find a viable post-inflation QCD axion model. Successful examples may have a nonstandard cosmological history (e.g., multiple types of cosmic axion strings of different tensions), undermining the widespread expectation that the post-inflation QCD axion scenario predicts a unique mass for axion dark matter.

Physics

A Scalable Reduced‐Order Model for the Steady Navier–Stokes Equations

Scaling up new scientific technologies from laboratory to industry often involves demonstrating performance on a larger scale. Computer simulations can accelerate design and predictions in the deployment process, though traditional numerical methods are computationally intractable even for intermediate pilot plant scales. Recently, the component reduced order modeling method has been developed to tackle this challenge by combining projection reduced order modeling and discontinuous Galerkin domain decomposition. However, while many scientific or engineering applications involve nonlinear physics, this method has only been demonstrated for various linear systems. In this work, the component reduced order modeling method is extended to steady Navier–Stokes flow, with application to general nonlinear physics in view. The large‐scale, global domain is decomposed into a combination of small‐scale unit component. Linear subspaces for flow velocity and pressure are identified via proper orthogonal decomposition over sample snapshots collected from each small‐scale unit component. Velocity bases are augmented with a pressure supremizer to satisfy the inf–sup condition for stable pressure prediction. Two different nonlinear reduced order modeling methods are employed and compared for efficient evaluation of nonlinear advection: A third‐order tensor projection operator and the empirical quadrature procedure. The proposed method is demonstrated on the flow over arrays of five different unit objects, achieving a 23‐fold speedup with less than 4% relative error in domains up to 256 times larger than the unit components. Furthermore, a numerical experiment with the pressure supremizer strongly indicates the need for a supremizer for stable pressure prediction. A comparison between the tensorial approach and the empirical quadrature procedure revealed a slight advantage of the empirical quadrature procedure. The framework is compared with an alternating Schwarz‐based reduced‐order approach, demonstrating improved efficiency and robustness for the DG‐based global solver while retaining flexibility for sub‐scale iterative solvers. The method is further extended to a coupled advection–diffusion and Navier–Stokes system, illustrating its applicability to multi‐physics problems and its potential for more general, inter‐coupled nonlinear systems.

42 ENGINEERING

Two-Stage Estimation and Variance Modeling for Latency-Constrained Variational Quantum Algorithms

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) has enjoyed increasing attention in noisy, intermediate-scale quantum computing with its application to combinatorial optimization problems. QAOA has the potential to demonstrate a quantum advantage for NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems. As a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm, the classical component of QAOA resembles a simulation optimization problem in which the simulation outcomes are attainable only through a quantum computer. The simulation that derives from QAOA exhibits two unique features that can have a substantial impact on the optimization process: (i) the variance of the stochastic objective values typically decreases in proportion to the optimality gap, and (ii) querying samples from a quantum computer introduces an additional latency overhead. In this paper, we introduce a novel stochastic trust-region method derived from a derivative-free, adaptive sampling trust-region optimization method intended to efficiently solve the classical optimization problem in QAOA by explicitly taking into account the two mentioned characteristics. The key idea behind the proposed algorithm involves constructing two separate local models in each iteration: a model of the objective function and a model of the variance of the objective function. Exploiting the variance model allows us to restrict the number of communications with the quantum computer and also helps navigate the nonconvex objective landscapes typical in QAOA optimization problems. In conclusion, we numerically demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithm using the SimOpt library and Qiskit when we consider a metric of computational burden that explicitly accounts for communication costs.

Derivative-free Optimization

Nested Pebble Bed Blanket (NesPeB)

Recent advances in magnetic confinement fusion technology have attracted billions of dollars of investments in startups from venture capitals and corporations, resulting in the development of devices aiming to demonstrate net energy gain in a self-heated burning plasma, such as SPARC (under construction) and others. However, future fusion power plants must operate in regimes that will require technologies far beyond current experience. According to a National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine report, to have nuclear fusion power plants contributing in a timely manner to the planned reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a pilot plant should be built by 2035, and it should demonstrate fusion power production and the performance of the tritium fuel system (requiring a high enough tritium breeding) by 2040. A recognized key technology gap by [26] is the fusion first wall and blanket since no current blanket concept is considered satisfactory or has been built and proven. The first wall and blanket in magnetic fusion reactors form a vital and complex system, as it must satisfy different functions such as power extraction, tritium breeding, plasma containment, radiation shielding, and safety. The list of design requirements is even longer: high enough tritium production for fusion self-sufficiency, low material activation, decay heat and shutdown dose rates, high thermal efficiency, high-capacity factor, high magnets-divertor-vacuum vessel-first wall life, low corrosion, low cost, and intrinsically safe (requiring minimal licensing). Despite fifty-plus years of research, the first wall and blanket concepts proposed suffer from fundamental technical problems and immaturity (TRL=2-3) that jeopardize the timely delivery of a commercial fusion power plant. A fusion first-wall blanket has never been built nor tested, and a "winning", practical functioning design requires enough engineering margins (high enough tritium breeding considering the uncertainty, etc.), manufacturing simplicity, ease of continuous operation, maintenance, and low cost. A new, groundbreaking blanket concept called "Nested Pebble Bed Blanket" (NesPeB) was developed at ORNL under the successful ARPA-E GAMOW FERMI project (patent application allowed by the USPTO). The NesPeB blanket concept addresses current blanket concepts' shortcomings and technical immaturity, paving the way for accelerated delivery of fusion power plants. NesPeB is based on nested pebbles, which are binary-sized lithium-ceramic pebbles enclosed in "Beryllide" perforated and coated spherical shells, which are also binary-sized, stacked on top of each other, forming a "bed" and cooled by Nitrogen gas also "sweeping" the Helium and Tritium generated by the neutron irradiation of Lithium; the vacuum vessel plasma facing material is Molybdenum-96 and -97 with the first wall cooled by Helium while the divertor armor is made of Tungsten. The simulations of the NesPeB blanket using Fusion Reactors Models Integrator (FERMI) are encouraging as they estimate a tritium breeding ratio (TBR) greater than 1.2 using natural Lithium, acceptable pressure drop, and excellent heat transfer properties. Furthermore, the NesPeB blanket is not limited by magneto-hydro-dynamics (MHD) effects, is designed for online refueling, relies on existing tritium extraction technologies, has a simple construction, and limits the corrosion and chemical reactivity problems. NesPeB has the potential to be transformational and disruptive since it can solve all the main, challenging technical problems of fusion device blankets and accelerate a pilot plant delivery for 10 or more years.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Evidence of scaling advantage for the quantum approximate optimization algorithm on a classically intractable problem

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) is a leading candidate algorithm for solving optimization problems on quantum computers. However, the potential of QAOA to tackle classically intractable problems remains unclear. Here, we perform an extensive numerical investigation of QAOA on the low autocorrelation binary sequences (LABS) problem, which is classically intractable even for moderately sized instances. We perform noiseless simulations with up to 40 qubits and observe that the runtime of QAOA with fixed parameters scales better than branch-and-bound solvers, which are the state-of-the-art exact solvers for LABS. The combination of QAOA with quantum minimum finding gives the best empirical scaling of any algorithm for the LABS problem. We demonstrate experimental progress in executing QAOA for the LABS problem using an algorithm-specific error detection scheme on Quantinuum trapped-ion processors. Our results provide evidence for the utility of QAOA as an algorithmic component that enables quantum speedups.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Multireference Equation-of-Motion Driven Similarity Renormalization Group: Theoretical Foundations and Applications to Ionized States

We present a formulation and implementation of an equation-of-motion (EOM) extension of the multireference driven similarity renormalization group (MR-DSRG) formalism for ionization potentials (IP-EOM-DSRG). The IP-EOM-DSRG formalism results in a Hermitian generalized eigenvalue problem, delivering accurate ionization potentials for strongly correlated systems. The EOM step scales as O(N 5 ) with the basis set size N, allowing for efficient calculation of spectroscopic properties, such as transition energies and intensities. The IP-EOM-DSRG formalism is combined with three truncation schemes of the parent MR-DSRG theory: an iterative nonperturbative method with up to two-body excitations [MR-LDSRG(2)] and second- and third-order perturbative approximations [DSRG-MRPT2/3]. We benchmark these variants by computing (1) the vertical valence ionization potentials of a series of small molecules at both equilibrium and stretched geometries; (2) the spectroscopic constants of several low-lying electronic states of the OH, CN, N 2 + , and CO + radicals; and (3) the binding curves of low-lying electronic states of the CN radical. A comparison with experimental data and theoretical results shows that all three IP-EOM-DSRG methods accurately reproduce the vertical ionization potentials and spectroscopic constants of these systems. Notably, the DSRG-MRPT3 and MR-LDSRG(2) versions outperform several state-of-the-art multireference methods of comparable or higher cost.

Hamiltonians

Nanocrystal Assemblies: Current Advances and Open Problems

Here we explore the potential of nanocrystals (a term used equivalently to nanoparticles) as building blocks for nanomaterials, and the current advances and open challenges for fundamental science developments and applications. Nanocrystal assemblies are inherently multiscale, and the generation of revolutionary material properties requires a precise understanding of the relationship between structure and function, the former being determined by classical effects and the latter often by quantum effects. With an emphasis on theory and computation, we discuss challenges that hamper current assembly strategies and to what extent nanocrystal assemblies represent thermodynamic equilibrium or kinetically trapped metastable states. We also examine dynamic effects and optimization of assembly protocols. Finally, we discuss promising material functions and examples of their realization with nanocrystal assemblies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Multi-objective optimization of PWR core design using NSGA-II in RAVEN’s optimization framework

Designing an PWR loading pattern is a combinatorial problem challenging to solve by brute force or traditional methods due to the sheer amount of possible combination, and constraints. Nature-inspired algorithms, such as the genetic algorithm, have demonstrated the potential to tackle this problem. The goal of this work was to improve and demonstrate the capabilities for constrained, multi-objective optimization (MOO) of loading patterns using NSGA-II in RAVEN’s optimization framework.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Distributed Quantum-Enhanced Optimization: A Topographical Preconditioning Approach for High-Dimensional Search

Optimization problems become fundamentally challenging as the number of variables increases. Because the volume of the search space grows exponentially, classical algorithms frequently fail to locate the global minimum of non-convex functions. While quantum optimization offers a potential alternative, mapping continuous problems onto near-term quantum hardware introduces severe scaling limits and barren plateaus. To bridge this gap, we propose the Distributed Quantum-Enhanced Optimization (D-QEO) framework. Instead of forcing the quantum processor to find the exact minimum, we use it simply as a topographical preconditioner. The QPU maps the landscape to locate the most promising basin of attraction, generating high-quality seed points for a classical GPU-accelerated solver to refine. To make this approach viable for utility-scale problems, we exploit the mathematical structure of separable functions. This allows us to cut a 50-qubit (i.e., $2^{50}$) global search space into independent and manageable sub-spaces using 5-qubit subcircuits. By executing these fragments concurrently with CUDA-Q, we completely bypass the overhead of cross-register entanglement and classical tensor knitting for separable functions. Benchmarks on the 10-dimensional Rastrigin and Ackley functions show that D-QEO prevents the exponential failure rates observed in purely classical algorithms. Furthermore, this quantum warm-start significantly reduces the number of classical BFGS iterations required to converge, providing a highly practical blueprint for utilizing near-term quantum resources in complex global search.

Soos, Dominik [Old Dominion U.]

Graph decomposition techniques for solving combinatorial optimization problems with variational quantum algorithms

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) has the potential to approximately solve complex combinatorial optimization problems in polynomial time. However, current noisy quantum devices cannot solve large problems due to hardware constraints. In this work, we develop an algorithm that decomposes the QAOA input problem graph into a smaller problem and solves MaxCut using QAOA on the reduced graph. The algorithm requires a subroutine that can be classical or quantum—in this work, we implement the algorithm twice on each graph. One implementation uses the classical solver Gurobi in the subroutine and the other uses QAOA. We solve these reduced problems with QAOA. On average, the reduced problems require only approximately 1/10 of the number of vertices than the original MaxCut instances. Furthermore, the average approximation ratio of the original MaxCut problems is 0.75, while the approximation ratios of the decomposed graphs are on average of 0.96 for both Gurobi and QAOA. With this decomposition, we are able to measure optimal solutions for ten 100-vertex graphs by running single-layer QAOA circuits on the Quantinuum trapped-ion quantum computer H1-1, sampling each circuit only 500 times. This approach is best suited for sparse, particularly k-regular graphs, as k-regular graphs on n vertices can be decomposed into a graph with at most $\frac{nk}{k+1}$ vertices in polynomial time. Further reductions can be obtained with a potential trade-off in computational time. In conclusion, while this paper applies the decomposition method to the MaxCut problem, it can be applied to more general classes of combinatorial optimization problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Scalable learning of potentials to predict time-dependent Hartree–Fock dynamics

We propose a framework to learn the time-dependent Hartree–Fock (TDHF) inter-electronic potential of a molecule from its electron density dynamics. Although the entire TDHF Hamiltonian, including the inter-electronic potential, can be computed from first principles, we use this problem as a testbed to develop strategies that can be applied to learn a priori unknown terms that arise in other methods/approaches to quantum dynamics, e.g., emerging problems such as learning exchange–correlation potentials for time-dependent density functional theory. We develop, train, and test three models of the TDHF inter-electronic potential, each parameterized by a four-index tensor of size up to 60 × 60 × 60 × 60. Two of the models preserve Hermitian symmetry, while one model preserves an eight-fold permutation symmetry that implies Hermitian symmetry. Across seven different molecular systems, we find that accounting for the deeper eight-fold symmetry leads to the best-performing model across three metrics: training efficiency, test set predictive power, and direct comparison of true and learned inter-electronic potentials. All three models, when trained on ensembles of field-free trajectories, generate accurate electron dynamics predictions even in a field-on regime that lies outside the training set. To enable our models to scale to large molecular systems, we derive expressions for Jacobian-vector products that enable iterative, matrix-free training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Designing a Framework for Solving Multiobjective Simulation Optimization Problems

Multiobjective simulation optimization (MOSO) problems are optimization problems with multiple conflicting objectives, where evaluation of at least one of the objectives depends on a black-box numerical code or real-world experiment, which we refer to as a simulation. Whereas an extensive body of research is dedicated to developing new algorithms and methods for solving these and related problems, it is challenging and time-consuming to integrate these techniques into real-world production-ready solvers. This is partly because of the diversity and complexity of modern state-of-the-art MOSO algorithms and methods and partly because of the complexity and specificity of many real-world problems and their corresponding computing environments. The complexity of this problem is only compounded when introducing potentially complex and/or domain-specific surrogate-modeling techniques, problem formulations, design spaces, and data acquisition functions. Here, this paper carefully surveys the current state of the art in MOSO algorithms, techniques, and solvers, as well as problem types and computational environments where MOSO is commonly applied. We then present several key challenges in the design of a parallel multiobjective simulation optimization framework (ParMOO) and how they have been addressed. Finally, we provide two case studies demonstrating how customized ParMOO solvers can be quickly built and deployed to solve real-world MOSO problems.

engineering design optimization

Data-Informed Synthetic Networks of Water Distribution Systems for Resilience Analysis in Puerto Rico

The increasing potential of infrastructure disruptions calls for high-quality infrastructure models to be used in resilience analysis and decision making. Unfortunately, many utilities and communities do not have access to accurate and detailed models due to a lack of data and resources. Furthermore, security restrictions on sharing infrastructure models present roadblocks to research, analysis, and decision making. Recent advances in the development of synthetic water distribution models provide a potential solution to this problem. There is an opportunity to improve these methods by leveraging incomplete pipe datasets to aid synthetic network generation. To address this gap, we developed a methodology for synthetic network generation that incorporates partial pipe data using a modification of the minimum cost flow algorithm for network generation and pipe sizing. This methodology demonstrates how partial pipe data can be leveraged to improve site-specific synthetic network generation. For the study area of Mayagüez, Puerto Rico, a synthetic model generated using 50% of real pipe data matches the pressure of the validation system with an average error of 23.5 m of head, which improves upon the average error of 31.6 m of head produced by a synthetic model generated using no data of the real pipes. Additionally, synthetic networks are shown to replicate the pressure response under a disruption scenario of the validation network, suggesting potential use in resilience analysis.

resilience analysis

Transgenic Sugarcane–Oilcane: An Alternative Feedstock for the Production of Drop-in Fuel and Value-Added Bioproducts

The utilization of plants and other agricultural produce can partly offset petroleum dependency for energy requirements and can potentially provide sustainable solutions to global environmental problems. To this end, synthetic biology has shown great potential in developing transgenic bioenergy grasses such as sugarcane, sorghum, miscanthus, and energy cane that hyperaccumulate energy-rich lipid molecules in their vegetative tissues, such as leaves, stems, and roots. These perennial high-biomass transgenic C4 grasses are not targeted to grow on prime agricultural land and can be dedicatedly used to produce biofuels and other value-added bioproducts. Recently, sugarcane has been metabolically engineered to sequestrate carbon from juice towards biosynthesis of lipid molecules in the vegetative tissues. Transgenic sugarcane is referred to as “oilcane.” Transgenic sugarcane–oilcane has improved energy density due to an elevated lipid content in the vegetative tissues. Transgenic bioenergy crops cater to both cellulosic sugars and vegetative lipids, hence resulting in higher biofuel yield (biodiesel/renewable diesel and bioethanol) per unit area of cultivable land. In this book chapter, the genetic engineering of sugarcane and its bioprocessing are discussed to illustrate its development and use as an alternative feedstock for the production of biofuels (bio-jet fuel, biodiesel, and bioethanol) and value-added bioproducts.

Maitra, Shraddha

Unifying Combinatorial and Graphical Methods in Artificial Intelligence

Recently, a new graph Laplacian, called the inner product Laplacian, was introduced which generalizes many existing Laplacians, including the normalized and combinatorial Laplacian and their weighted variants. The key observation behind the inner product Laplacian is that by defining appropriate inner product spaces on the vertices and edges, the standard Laplacians can be recovered as Hodge Laplacians over the simplicial complex formed by the edges and vertices. These inner product spaces form a natural way to incorporate non-combinatorial information into the definition of a domain-specific Laplacian. In particular, in contrast to current domain-specific weighting schemes which rely solely on edge weights, information regarding the similarity of non-adjacent vertices and arbitrary pairs of edges can be effectively incorporated into the Laplacian. In order to illustrate this approach we consider the problem of calculating the potential energy of an atomistic configuration using Graph Neural Networks. In comparison with start-of-the-art approaches, such as SchNet, our approach replaces a learned (via auto-encoder) representation of the atom types with an inner product space on atoms based on scientific knowledge (e.g., electronegativity). We will illustrate how this approach captures key chemical properties of the molecules and compare the energy calculations with state-of-the-art neural network approaches. However, to compute the resulting Laplacian involves a mixture of sparse and dense matrix computation and yields a dense matrix as the basis for the graph convolution. This dense convolutional kernel necessitates moving away from the standard message passing framework for graph neural networks and increases the computational cost of applying the kernel. In order to mitigate these costs we investigate means of leveraging the mixed sparse and dense computations to reduce the overall computational cost and how these approaches can be automatically transferred to energy efficient hardware (e.g., field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs)).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

DOE Data Days 2025 Report

The DOE Data Days (D3) workshop brings together data managers, developers, researchers, and program managers across the Department of Energy (DOE) and its national laboratories to highlight data management successes, identify potential synergies and common problems, and establish channels for collaboration across the DOE data management community.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING