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DOE OSTI2025

Development and application of two-step uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methodology for fast reactor safety analysis

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear reactors for transients is directly linked with safety assessment through the cross-sections uncertainties, provided as a covariance matrix, which are propagated through the reactor system to output of interest pertaining to reactor safety, such as peak temperatures in fuel/clad/coolant. Using a two-step approach, uncertainties are first quantified and propagated from basic input variables (such as reaction cross-sections) to intermediate quantities (such as reactivity feedback coefficients) through lattice level calculations. Uncertainties of intermediate quantities (from the first step) are then propagated through the system transient calculations, in the second step, to obtain uncertainties on reactor safety output parameters of interest. The scope of this work consists of Uncertainty Quantification & Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties that are highly correlated through unprotected transient overpower and unprotected loss of flow to assess their impact on core safety parameters. This two-step approach in the presence of covariance renders the sensitivity analysis very challenging. In fact, usually the sensitivity analysis is restricted to each step, which limits its application since the sensitivities between the system output quantities and the basic input variables are difficult to obtain. Here, in this work, we address this issue by proposing a simple, general methodology to combine the sensitivity indices obtained in each step by assuming the model behavior being linear. For the first step Generalized Perturbation theory based indices are used while in the second step the recently studied Johnson indices. The uncertainty quantification and sensitivity methodologies discussed here are demonstrated on a generic LFR design which is based on the 500 MWth demonstration Lead-cooled fast reactor (DLFR) using oxide fuel, developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC).

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interpretation of high-harmonic fast-wave propagation in the scrape-off layer of NSTX-U as a geometrically bounded-waveguide mode

This paper revisits the onset of high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) propagation in the scrape-off layer (SOL) plasma of the NSTX/NSTX-U spherical tokamak, motivated by past HHFW heating and current drive experiments and modelling. Previously, the fast-wave propagation in the SOL was correlated with the opening (suppression) of the fast-wave right-hand cutoff layer in front of the antenna. In this work, the SOL propagation is interpreted as a geometric waveguide mode guided by the SOL geometry, whose radial width can be comparable to the wave’s perpendicular wavelength in the HHFW regime. A two-dimensional circular model is first employed using full-wave solvers to characterise the poloidal eigenmode structures and to clarify their relationship to annulus resonance. By progressively adding a tokamak-like magnetic-field configuration, starting from a uniform axial field, the effects of magnetic-field gradients and pitch on the SOL waveguide mode are characterised. The poloidal mode numbers supported by the SOL plasma agree well with analytic estimates, indicating that an anisotropic plasma in a bounded geometry selectively supports and amplifies the resonant poloidal mode number. Additionally, two-dimensional axisymmetric NSTX-U simulations demonstrate that the SOL eigenmode features identified in the circular model persist in the experimentally relevant configurations. A control approach based on lengthening the wave perpendicular wavelength relative to the SOL width, including a higher magnetic (B)-field operation, is discussed. The analysis here shows the key role of a bounded geometry in interpreting HHFW eigenmode coupling and propagation in the NSTX-U SOL plasma.

plasma heating↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms Behind the Long‐Distance Diurnal Offshore Precipitation Propagation in Northwestern South America

Abstract Northwestern South America (NWSA) is the rainiest region on Earth, with diurnal precipitation exhibiting extensive westward offshore propagation of up to about 1,200 km in boreal spring (March‐May). The diurnal offshore precipitation propagation begins slowly (3–10 m s −1 ) near the coast of NWSA (<200 km) but accelerates significantly (∼20 m s −1 ) and shows an afternoon enhancement far from the coast (>400 km). However, the driving mechanisms behind this long‐distance precipitation propagation remain unclear. Using a new cloud tracking and classification data set, we found that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant precipitation contributors in the offshore region of NWSA. Cloud tracking shows that the long‐distance propagation and the afternoon enhancement of diurnal precipitation primarily originate from MCSs initiated in the early morning, either over open oceans or from the coast of Central America. Composite tendency analysis shows that MCSs initiated near the coast of Central America have significant upward cooling and moistening signals starting from the surface before initiation. Further analysis of surface diurnal perturbation fields indicates that the land breeze is the primary driving mechanism for MCS initiation. Conversely, for MCSs initiated over open oceans, a significant downward cooling signal from 400 hPa is observed ∼7 hr before initiation, corresponding to the passage of diurnal gravity waves emitted from the Andes. Additionally, our findings highlight the critical role of lower and mid‐level moisture conditions in MCS initiation, alongside the influence of gravity waves.

Hu, Jingyi [Department of Meteorology and Atmosphe↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of density turbulence on helicon wave propagation in the core plasmas

Radio frequency wave propagation can be significantly affected by density irregularities, such as filaments in the scrape-off layer or instabilities in the core plasma. In this study, we examine the impact of edge turbulence on helicon wave propagation using the Petra-M simulation tool. To analyze the effect of edge turbulence, we utilize a realistic background plasma derived from XGC simulations, which includes spatial density fluctuations at the edge. This focus is particularly relevant for the DIII-D configuration, characterized by edge density turbulence of the core plasmas in a wide pedestal QH-mode. We focus on helicon wave propagation in the core plasma since the slow mode cannot propagate into the core plasma when the density is higher than the lower hybrid resonance, where a wide pedestal QH-mode occurs. The simulation results indicate that edge density fluctuations have a substantial impact on helicon wave coupling due to scattering in the core. We specifically demonstrate that the toroidal mode number and the level of density fluctuations are significant factors influencing scattering. While we have minimized the excitation of slow modes from the antenna, we still observe mode-converted slow modes resulting from the incoming helicon waves. The insights derived from these simulations will inform upcoming tokamak experiments regarding helicon antenna coupling in long pulse scenarios.

Kim, Eun-Hwa [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of midplane density gradient in the propagation of high-harmonic fast waves considering high temperature anisotropy in the scrape-off layer of NSTX-U

High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating experiments in NSTX have shown that up to 60% of the injected power can be lost in the Scrape-Off Layer (SOL) when the density is above the fast wave cutoff density in front of the antenna, for which the fast wave is able to propagate into the plasma. This work models HHFW propagation in the SOL plasmas of NSTX-U using a 2D divertor SOL profile derived from the pressure assumption and the finite element temperature solution, which accounts for the high anisotropy of heat conduction in a 2D axisymmetric geometry. In this work, the two-dimensional axisymmetric SOL temperature profile is first evaluated by solving the steady-state non-linear heat conduction equation, in which thermal conductivity depends on temperature, using a finite element approach in the Petra-M workbench. A 2D density profile is then obtained from a prescribed density profile at the outer midplane assuming pressure is uniform along a flux tube in the SOL. This approach results in density and temperature profiles in which the strong asymmetric nature of heat conduction between the parallel and perpendicular background magnetic field is successfully captured. Furthermore, this work focuses on investigating the effect of the SOL plasma density profile on parasitic HHFW propagation in the SOL. The simulation results show that the radial gradient of the density profile affects the wavefield propagation in the SOL. As the density profile broadens, the wavefield intensity and its poloidal extent are reduced in the SOL, and the core coupling increases. Similarly, as shown by collisional power deposition, a proxy for power absorption, the fraction of power deposited in the SOL decreases with a broadening profile.

HHFW↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-Focused Pulse Propagation Is Mediated by Spatiotemporal Optical Vortices

We show that the dynamics of high-intensity laser pulses undergoing self-focused propagation in a nonlinear medium can be understood in terms of the topological constraints imposed by the formation and evolution of spatiotemporal optical vortices (STOVs). STOVs are born from point phase defects on the sides of the pulse nucleated by spatiotemporal phase shear. These defects grow into closed loops of spatiotemporal vorticity that initially exclude the pulse propagation axis, but then reconnect to form a pair of toroidal vortex rings that wrap around it. STOVs constrain the intrapulse flow of electromagnetic energy, controlling the focusing-defocusing cycles and pulse splitting inherent to nonlinear pulse propagation. Here, we illustrate this in two widely studied but very different regimes, relativistic self-focusing in plasma and nonrelativistic self-focusing in gas, demonstrating that STOVs mediate nonlinear propagation irrespective of the detailed physics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics of Edge-Core Coupling by Inward Turbulence Propagation

The dynamics of edge-core coupling is critically important to the optimization of magnetically confined fusion plasmas. Since early proposals, there has been persistent speculation that inward propagation of turbulence from the boundary is a possible means to energize the edge-core coupling region. However, the detailed mechanism of this process has remained a mystery until recent experiments observed that regular, intense gradient relaxation events generated blob-void pairs very close to the last closed flux surface. Blobs ($\tilde{n}$ >0) propagate outward and detach from the bulk plasma, while voids ($\tilde{n}$ <0) propagate inward, and so stir the core plasma. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that this heretofore ignored process of void emission can drive a broad turbulent layer of width ∼100 𝜌 𝑠 , for typical parameters. The mechanism is the Cherenkov emission of drift waves from inward-propagating voids. The model shows promise to resolve several questions surrounding the shortfall problem and the strong turbulence in the edge-core coupling region.

drift waves↗

DOE OSTI2025

Aspects of propagator sparsening in lattice QCD

In lattice field theory, field sparsening aims to replace quantum fields, or objects constructed from them, with approximations that preserve the appropriate symmetries and maintain many aspects of the physics that the fields determine. For example, an effective sparsening of a quark propagator provides an efficient map from a quark propagator on a fine lattice geometry to a quark propagator defined on a coarser geometry in order to reduce storage and computational costs of subsequent calculational stages while maintaining long-distance correlations and corresponding low-energy physical information. Previous studies have focused on decimating lattice sites or randomly sampling lattice sites to reduce the size of the propagator and subsequent costs of Wick contractions. Here, we extend the study of sparsening to incorporate covariant averaging of spatial sites and examine the effects on two-point and three-point correlation functions involving various hadrons. We find that sparsening is most effective in reproducing the unsparsened versions of these correlation functions when weighted covariant-averaging is sequentially applied many times.

Lattice QCD↗

DOE OSTI2024

(U) A Code System for Cross-Section Uncertainty Propagation for PARTISN

A rudimentary code system has been developed for propagating neutron cross-section uncertainties to response uncertainties using the PARTISN multigroup discrete-ordinates neutron transport code. The code system uses the first-order sandwich rule with sensitivities computed using SENSMG and covariances computed using NJOY. Databases of reaction cross sections and covariances using ENDF/B-VIII.0 data in the LANL standard 30-group structure have been precalculated. The final uncertainty in a k eff example problem compares well with the result from TOFFEE, a similar code that propagates neutron cross-section uncertainties to response uncertainties using the MCNP6 Monte Carlo neutron transport code. Presently, neither code system propagates uncertainties in $\overline{v}$, $\overline{μ}$, or χ, and neither code system propagates nuclide-nuclide covariances

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Counter-propagating toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes in tokamaks

Mechanisms of destabilization of toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs) in tokamaks are analyzed with the aim to reveal those leading to modes propagating in the direction opposite to plasma current, i.e. counter-propagating modes (ctr-TAE). Plasmas with fast-ions sources [such as neutral beam injection (NBI), ion cyclotron resonance heating, fusion reactions] and without them (Ohmic discharges) are considered. A particular NSTX-U experiment with NBI, where co- and counter-propagating TAEs were observed simultaneously (Podestà et al 2018 Nucl. Fusion 58 082023), is considered. It is concluded that both types of TAEs occurred because their destabilization was caused by the velocity anisotropy of beam ions, which overrode effects of spatial inhomogeneity of these ions.

Alfvénic instabilities↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Assessment of Parent Well Effect on Hydraulic Fracture Propagation at HFTS2: Insights from Cross-Well Strain Measurements and Microseismic Data

Understanding fracture propagation behavior is essential for optimizing hydraulic fracturing in unconventional reservoirs. This study demonstrates the value of integrating Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing (LF-DAS) and microseismic data, which together provide a more complete picture of fracture growth. Using data from Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS2), we identify stress changes in depletion zones induced by parent wells as a key factor influencing fracture propagation. This result is shown by new measurements of in-situ fracture propagation velocity and fracture-hit volume (fluid volume at fracture hit?) from LF-DAS and event density from microseismic. These findings highlight the importance of considering parent well effects, well spacing, and stimulation sequencing in completion design to improve reservoir development and production efficiency.

depletion zones↗

DOE OSTI2025

Propagation and Periodicity of Mars's Northern Annular Mode Modulates the Dust Cycle

Abstract We document the propagation of annular modes—zonally symmetric patterns of variability—in Mars's atmosphere using a reanalysis dataset. Mars's Northern Annular Mode (MNAM) sees anomalies of zonal‐mean zonal wind emerge near the subtropics and migrate poleward with a period of 150 days, similarly to Earth's Southern Annular Mode. The mechanism of propagation involves the interaction of the two leading empirical orthogonal functions that define the MNAM. Moreover, the propagation encourages alternating bands of surface wind stress to migrate polewards with a 150‐day period. In addition, a 150‐day periodicity in anomalous column dust optical depth most likely emerges in response to extrema of the MNAM. The combination of the impact of the MNAM's internally forced periodicity on the surface wind stress and the seasonal cycle may contribute to the inter‐annual variability of global dust events, as suggested by a Monte Carlo estimate that correctly approximates the observed incidence of global dust events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Penetrating Kelvin Waves on MJO Rainfall Propagation Through Deep Convection Modulation

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant intraseasonal oscillation in the tropics. As MJOs propagate over the Indian Ocean, some of them can be penetrated by fast‐moving equatorial Kelvin waves originating to the west of the MJOs. Through a series of sensitivity experiments, we demonstrate that these penetrating Kelvin waves can modulate the eastward propagation speed of MJO rainfall. Deep convection in the western MJO rainfall envelope initiates more frequently and produces greater lifetime rainfall when a convectively active Kelvin phase is present, while the opposite occurs during a convectively suppressed Kelvin phase. This alteration in deep convection activity can lead to notable changes in the propagation of the large‐scale MJO rainfall envelope. The modulation of deep convection lifetime rainfall by penetrating Kelvin waves primarily occurs through their impact on deep convection rainfall area, which is closely related to the variations in lower‐tropospheric moisture induced by the Kelvin waves.

Chen, Xingchao [Pennsylvania State Univ., Universi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Signal propagation in reversible digital mechanics

Digital mechanics explores information processing through binary, mechanical circuits. This work demonstrates a flexural, mechanical integrated circuit (m-IC) that achieves reversible, non-reciprocal signal propagation through integrated AND logic and memory. Our approach exploits sequential bistable transitions with symmetric energy wells, tunable stiffness, impedance matching, and AND gate non-linearity, to enable signal propagation, repeatability, and reversibility. We present a generalized model of logic kinematics and energetics, validated experimentally, to study energy flows, quantify energetic limits, and identify operating regimes for reversible logic. Macro-scale experiments confirm propagation dynamics, and new fabrication methods extend the architecture to micro-scale devices. By achieving controlled, reversible signal transmission across interconnected logic and memory, this work establishes a scalable platform for robust mechanical computing and adaptive sensing.

Johnson, Hilary A. [Lawrence Livermore National La↗

DOE OSTI2025

Propagation of ion cyclotron emission in the DIII-D tokamak

Experiments in L- and H-mode plasmas performed on the DIII-D tokamak explored ion cyclotron emission (ICE) propagation via the recently upgraded ICE diagnostic. The distance between the plasma and the outer wall was scanned to alter the evanescent region, which was seen to impact the detection of runaway electron-driven whistler modes in a comparable frequency range to typical ICE harmonics (f≳10fci) [Heidbrink et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 61, 014007 (2018)]. In L-mode plasmas, core ICE did not exhibit clear trends as the plasma-wall distance was altered. Instead, inadvertent changes to the fast ion density correlated with different ICE fine structures; the most spectral bands (spaced ∼150–200 kHz apart) were observed at the highest fast ion density, and a just single band when nfast decreased by ∼ 40%. The full-wave Petra-M code simulated core ICE propagation through the plasma and to ICE probes, agreeing with experimental findings that these are likely compressional fast waves, which propagate to probe locations with no dependence on plasma-wall gap. Edge ICE in H-mode plasmas was similarly unaffected by plasma-wall distance. Unlike in core ICE cases, there were negligible changes to the edge fast ion distribution and edge bulk plasma profiles. However, changes in ELM frequency seemed most closely tied to ICE behavior. Ultimately, core and edge ICE did not exhibit clear dependencies on the plasma-wall distance, and ICE harmonics were observed with even the largest plasma-wall gaps. This independence bodes well for similar diagnostics in future tokamaks, which might be placed further from high radiation areas without adversely impacting measurement capabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fusion burn-propagation simulations using the collisional and radiative particle-in-cell code TRIFORCE

The ability to accurately model burn propagation in inertial confinement fusion plasmas is crucial for advancing fusion energy research. This work presents enhancements to the triforce hybrid fluid-kinetic multiphysics code, focusing on its kinetic half, which employs the particle-in-cell (PIC) method with Monte Carlo collisions (MCC). We use a moment-preserving collision model that mitigates numerical noise, particularly in spherical geometries where particle weights vary significantly. Additionally, we refine the treatment of inverse bremsstrahlung to account for electron–ion collision frequency reductions in degenerate plasmas and incorporate a blackbody radiation source to enable realistic photon injection. These improvements enable the simulation of 1-dimensional (1D) spherical fusion burn propagation in deuterium–tritium plasmas. Benchmark comparisons with the hydra radiation-hydrodynamics code confirm that triforce accurately captures the dynamics of hot-spot expansion and burn propagation, demonstrating sensitivity to ignition thresholds consistent with theoretical models. Findings show the ignition cliff to be less steep in our work compared to radiation-hydrodynamic modeling. These results highlight the role of kinetic effects in fusion ignition physics and underscore the necessity of hybrid fluid-kinetic models for advancing predictive capabilities in high-energy-density plasma systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Shock propagation in aerogel and TPP foams for inertial fusion energy target design

Achieving practical inertial fusion energy (IFE) requires the development of target designs with well-characterized microstructure and compression response. We measured shock dynamics in low-density (17.5–500 mg/cm 3 ) aerogel and two-photon polymerization (TPP) foams using x-ray phase contrast imaging (XPCI) methods and the Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector. By analyzing shock front evolution, we examined how target type and density influence shock propagation and energy dissipation. Talbot-XPCI shows that aerogels support a smooth, bowed shock front due to their homogeneous nanometer-scale pore network. In contrast, TPP foams exhibit irregular, stepwise propagation driven by interactions with their periodic micrometer-scale lattice. Shock velocity follows a power-law relation: aerogels deviate from classical ρ −1/2 scaling due to pore-collapse dissipation, while TPP foams follow the trend with larger uncertainties from density variations. Comparisons with xRAGE simulations reveal systematic underestimation of shock speeds. These results provide the first experimental constraints on shock propagation in TPP foams over a wide density range and highlight the influence of internal structure on anisotropic shock behavior. Our findings support improved benchmarking of EOS and hydrodynamic models and inform the design of foam architectures that promote implosion symmetry in IFE capsules.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding cold electron impact on parallel-propagating whistler chorus waves via moment-based quasilinear theory

Earth's magnetosphere hosts a wide range of collisionless particle populations that interact through various wave-particle processes. Among these, cold electrons, with energies below 100 eV, often dominate the plasma density but remain poorly characterized due to measurement challenges such as spacecraft charging and photoelectron contamination. Understanding the contribution of these cold populations to wave–particle interaction is of significant interest. Recent kinetic simulations identified a secondary drift-driven instability, in which parallel-propagating whistler-mode chorus waves excite oblique electrostatic whistler waves near the resonance cone and Bernstein-mode turbulence. These secondary modes enable a new channel of energy transfer from the parallel-propagating whistler wave to the cold electrons. In this work, we develop a moment-based quasilinear theory of the secondary instabilities to quantify such energy exchange. Our results show that these secondary instabilities persist for a wide range of parameters and, in many cases, lead to nearly complete damping of the primary wave. Such secondary instability might limit the amplitude of parallel-propagating whistler waves in Earth's magnetosphere and might explain why high-amplitude oblique whistler or electron Bernstein waves are rarely observed simultaneously with high-amplitude field-aligned whistler waves in the inner magnetosphere.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗