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DOE OSTI2026

The Strength of Coupling to the Southern Ocean Modulates Tropical Eastern Pacific Variability and Forced Response

Despite rising global-mean temperatures, large parts of the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have cooled during the satellite era. These regions may be linked by teleconnections, with Southern Ocean cooling contributing to tropical eastern Pacific cooling. We demonstrate that, on average, state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) underestimate the magnitude of interaction between the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the teleconnection is shown to be mediated by the magnitude of the positive cloud–sea surface temperature (SST) feedback in the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean and the strength of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. We link excessive precipitation in the tropical Pacific south of the equator to the strength of the Southern Ocean–eastern Pacific teleconnection. This model bias, known as the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is shown to be related to erroneous convection south of the equator, weakened cross-equatorial trade winds, and unfavorable meteorological conditions for marine boundary layer subtropical clouds. We postulate there is a two-way interaction, in which a double-ITCZ occurs with weaker cloud–SST and WES feedbacks, which in turn impact local SSTs and amplify the double-ITCZ. Models with a stronger Southern Ocean to tropical Pacific teleconnection tend to exhibit more multidecadal variability in the Walker circulation, ITCZ, and west–east equatorial SST gradient, as well as greater delayed warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean resulting from delayed Southern Ocean warming under greenhouse gas forcing. These results provide insight into why ESMs struggle to replicate observed tropical Pacific temperature trend patterns and point to ITCZ location as a key target for improvement in future model development.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS1995

Lagrangian mixed layer modeling of the western equatorial Pacific

Processes that control the upper ocean thermohaline structure in the western equatorial Pacific are examined using a Lagrangian mixed layer model. The one-dimensional bulk mixed layer model of Garwood (1977) is integrated along the trajectories derived from a nonlinear 1 1/2 layer reduced gravity model forced with actual wind fields. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data are used to estimate surface freshwater fluxes for the mixed layer model. The wind stress data which forced the 1 1/2 layer model are used for the mixed layer model. The model was run for the period 1987-1988. This simple model is able to simulate the isothermal layer below the mixed layer in the western Pacific warm pool and its variation. The subduction mechanism hypothesized by Lukas and Lindstrom (1991) is evident in the model results. During periods of strong South Equatorial Current, the warm and salty mixed layer waters in the central Pacific are subducted below the fresh shallow mixed layer in the western Pacific. However, this subduction mechanism is not evident when upwelling Rossby waves reach the western equatorial Pacific or when a prominent deepening of the mixed layer occurs in the western equatorial Pacific or when a prominent deepening of the mixed layer occurs in the western equatorial Pacific due to episodes of strong wind and light precipitation associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Comparison of the results between the Lagrangian mixed layer model and a locally forced Eulerian mixed layer model indicated that horizontal advection of salty waters from the central Pacific strongly affects the upper ocean salinity variation in the western Pacific, and that this advection is necessary to maintain the upper ocean thermohaline structure in this region.

Shinoda, Toshiaki↗

NASA NTRS1999

Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Ocean to Precipitation Induced Freshwater Flux

We have performed a series of experiments using an ocean model to study the sensitivity of tropical Pacific Ocean to variations in precipitation induced freshwater fluxes. Variations in these fluxes arise from natural causes on all time scales. In addition, estimates of these fluxes are uncertain because of differences among measurement techniques. The model used is a quasi-isopycnal model, covering the Pacific from 40 S to 40 N. The surface forcing is constructed from observed wind stress, evaporation, precipitation, and surface temperature (SST) fields. The heat flux is produced with an iterative technique so as to maintain the model close to the observed climatology, but with only a weak damping to that climatology. Climatological estimates of evaporation are combined with various estimates of precipitation to determine the net surface freshwater flux. Results indicate that increased freshwater input decreases salinity as expected, but increases temperatures in the upper ocean. Using the freshwater flux estimated from the Microwave Sounding Unit leads to a warming of up to 0.6 C in the western Pacific over a case with zero net freshwater flux. SST is sensitive to the discrepancies among different precipitation observations, with root-mean-square differences in SST on the order of 0.2-0.3 C. The change in SST is more pronounced in the eastern Pacific, with differences of over 1 C found among the various precipitation products. Interannual variation in precipitation during El Nino events leads to increased warming. During the winter of 1982-83, freshwater flux accounts for about 0.4 C (approximately 10-15% of the maximum warming) of the surface warming in the central-eastern Pacific. Thus, the error of SST caused by the discrepancies in precipitation products is more than half of the SST anomaly produced by the interannual variability of observed precipitation. Further experiments, in which freshwater flux anomalies are imposed in the western, central, and eastern Pacific, show that the influence of net freshwater flux is also spatially dependent. The imposition of freshwater flux in the far western Pacific leads to a trapping of salinity anomaly to the surface layers near the equator. An identical flux imposed in the central Pacific produces deeper and off-equatorial salinity anomalies. The contrast between these two simulations is consistent with other simulations of the western Pacific barrier layer information.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS2000

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and Its Association with the Asian-Pacific Climate

Interannual variability of the wintertime East Asian westerly jet stream and the linkage between this variability and the Asian-Pacific climate are investigated. The study emphasizes on the variability of the jet core and its association with the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, upper tropospheric wave patterns, and the teleconnection of the jet with other climate systems. The relationship between the jet and North Pacific sea surface temperature pattern (SST) is also explored. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, NASA GISS surface temperature, NASA GEOS reanalysis, NOAA reconstructed SST, GPCP precipitation, and NOAA snow cover data sets are analyzed in this study. An index of the East Asian jet has been defined by the December-February means of the 200 mb zonal winds that are averaged within a box enclosing the jet maximum, which shifts only moderately from one year to another especially in the south-north direction. The jet links to a teleconnection pattern whose major climate anomalies appear over the Asian continent and western Pacific (west of the dateline). This pattern differs distinctly from the teleconnection pattern associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which causes the Pacific/North American pattern to the east of the dateline. A strong jet is accompanied clearly by an increase in the intensity of the atmospheric circulation over Asia and the Pacific. In particular, the winter monsoon strengthens over East Asia, leading to cold climate in the region, and convection intensifies over the tropical Asia-Australia sector. Changes in the jet are associated with broad-scale modification in the upper tropospheric wave patterns that leads to downstream climate anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Through this downstream influence, the East Asian jet causes climate signals in North America as well. A strong jet gives rise to warming and less snow cover in the western United States but reverse climate anomalies in the eastern part of the country, although these signals are relatively weaker than the jet-related anomalies in East Asia. There is a strong association between the East Asian jet and the North Pacific SST (NPSST). A strong jet is accompanied by a cooling in the extratropical Pacific and a warming in the tropical-subtropical Pacific. Evidence also indicates that the extratropical NPSST pattern plays a role in modulating the intensity of the jet stream. ENSO, the jet, and the NPSST are mutually interactive on certain time scales and such an interaction links closely to the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American regions.

Yang, Song↗

DOE OSTI2021

Removing the Effects of Tropical Dynamics from North Pacific Climate Variability

Teleconnections from the Tropics energize variations of the North Pacific climate, but detailed diagnosis of this relationship has proven difficult. Simple univariate methods, such as regression on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, may be inadequate since the key dynamical processes involved -- including ENSO diversity in the Tropics, re-emergence of mixed layer thermal anomalies, and oceanic Rossby wave propagation in the North Pacific -- have a variety of overlapping spatial and temporal scales. Here we use a multivariate Linear Inverse Model to quantify tropical and extra-tropical multi-scale dynamical contributions to North Pacific variability, in both observations and CMIP6 models. In observations, we find that the Tropics are responsible for almost half of the seasonal variance, and almost three quarters of the decadal variance, along the North American coast and within the subtropical front region northwest of Hawaii. SST anomalies that are generated by local dynamics within the Northeast Pacific have much shorter time scales, consistent with transient weather forcing by Aleutian low anomalies. Variability within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region is considerably less impacted by the Tropics, on all time scales. Consequently, without tropical forcing the dominant pattern of North Pacific variability would be a KOE pattern, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast to observations, most CMIP6 historical simulations produce North Pacific variability that maximizes in the KOE region, with amplitude significantly higher than observed. Correspondingly, the simulated North Pacific in all CMIP6 models is shown to be relatively insensitive to the Tropics, with a dominant spatial pattern generally resembling the KOE pattern, not the PDO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implications of increased spatial and trophic overlap between juvenile Pacific salmon and Sablefish in the northern California Current

Abstract Objective The study was designed to assess long-term variability in the distribution of juvenile Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria. The study also evaluated whether Sablefish and Pacific salmon shared food resources and looked to characterize Sablefish during an understudied period of their life cycle. Methods To meet the objectives, the study used data from 26 years of surface trawls conducted in Oregon and Washington coastal waters (1998–2023). Spatial–temporal models were used to measure changes in abundance and distribution of Pacific salmon and Sablefish along with covariates of ocean temperature. The study evaluated trophic characteristics of Pacific salmon and Sablefish from 2020 for differences. The temporal variation in size and diets of Sablefish were also analyzed, along with energy density of fish caught in 2020. Result The spatial–temporal model demonstrated that there has been a nearshore expansion of juvenile Sablefish over the past 26 years that was correlated with increased ocean temperature. The nearshore expansion of Sablefish resulted in increased spatial and trophic overlap with juvenile Pacific salmon. While feeding in nearshore waters, juvenile Sablefish demonstrated competitive feeding advantages over juvenile Pacific salmon during a critical phase of salmonid early marine life history. Juvenile Sablefish exhibited significant ontogenetic diet and energetic shifts, and even the smallest (68–80 mm fork length) were piscivorous. Conclusions If juvenile Sablefish numbers continue to increase relative to Pacific salmon, they could exert more competitive pressure, especially if food resources become limited. Pacific salmon may experience adverse effects from competition, regardless of whether or not juvenile Sablefish, which have recently expanded into nearshore waters, successfully recruit to the adult population.

Daly, Elizabeth A. (ORCID:0000000195334457)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamics of the abrupt change in Pacific Plate motion around 50 million years ago

Changes in Pacific Plate motion combined near equally with hotspot drift to generate the prominent bend in the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain some 50 million years ago, according to kinematic plate reconstruction and global dynamic models. A drastic change in plate tectonics and mantle convection occurred around 50 Ma as exemplified by the prominent Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. Both an abrupt Pacific Plate motion change and a change in mantle plume dynamics have been proposed to account for the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend, but debates surround the relative contribution of the two mechanisms. Here we build kinematic plate reconstructions and high-resolution global dynamic models to quantify the amount of Pacific Plate motion change. We find Izanagi Plate subduction, followed by demise of the Izanagi-Pacific Ridge and Izu-Bonin-Mariana subduction initiation alone, is incapable of causing a sudden change in plate motion, challenging the conventional hypothesis on the mechanisms of Pacific Plate motion change. Instead, Palaeocene slab pull from Kronotsky intraoceanic subduction in the northern Pacific exerts a northward pull on the Pacific Plate, while its Eocene demise leads to a sudden 30-35 degrees change in plate motion, accounting for about half of the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. We suggest the Pacific Plate motion change and hotspot drift due to plume dynamics could have contributed nearly equally to the formation of the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. Such a scenario is consistent with available constraints from global plate circuits, palaeomagnetic data and geodynamic models.

Hu, Jiashun↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean

The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p<0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.

Rousseaux, Cecile↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Effect of ENSO on Phytoplankton Composition in the Pacific Ocean

The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p less than 0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Ni a events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.

Rousseaux, Cecile↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Formation and Propagation of Atmospheric River and Its Impact on Extreme Precipitation Events in the North Pacific and the Western North America

Seasonal and interannual evolution patterns of atmospheric rivers (AR) in the North Pacific are examined as a function of the formation region where an AR is first detected using 43-year MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is used to detect AR with latitude dependent thresholds of IVT to better detect AR-like features in the high latitudes. Based on 3-hourly AR statistics, three main AR genesis regions in the North Pacific (i.e., South China Sea (SCS), Western North Pacific (WNP) and Central Pacific Ocean and Hawaiian Islands (CPO) are identified. WNP is the main source of AR with 1475 ARs detected for 43 cold seasons (NDJFM). Over 70% of all AR formed in the WNP has longer than 2-day. On the other hand, AR from CPO tends to have shorter lifetime than those from WNP and SCS. While propagation patterns of AR from SCS and WNP are similar, AR from WNP tends to reach mature phase quicker and shows higher change of impacting west coast of North America. Longevity and strength of AR are also examined based on three large-scale circulation modes (e.g. ENSO, WP, and EAJS) over the East Asia identified from eigen analysis of upper-level zonal winds. During El Nino, the number of AR formed in the western Pacific increased by 20%. First two days, the average size and intensity shows little difference compared with ARs in La Nina years. AR appears to grow in size in El Nino vs. La Nina years. Positive phase of WP correlated with less, but larger and stronger AR formation over WNP and SCS regions. EAJS has little impact in the numbers of AR and its size, but ARs in a stronger EAJS tends to grow larger. Atmospheric circulation associated with the initial formation and propagation of AR from the different regions in the North Pacific as well as its impact on extreme precipitation events in the North Pacific and the west coast of North America will be also discussed.

Integrated water vapor transport↗

DOE OSTI2020

Budgets for Decadal Variability in Pacific Ocean Heat Content

A slowdown in the rate of surface warming in the early 2000s led to renewed interest in the redistribution of ocean heat content (OHC) and its relationship with internal climate variability. In this work we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 to study the relationship between OHC and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), a major mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. By comparing the relative contributions of surface heat flux and ocean dynamics to changes in OHC for different phases of the IPO, we try to identify the underlying physical processes involved. Our results suggest that during IPO phase transitions, changes of 0–300-m OHC across the northern extratropical Pacific are positively contributed by both surface heat flux and oceanic heat transport. By contrast, oceanic heat transport appears to drive the OHC changes in equatorial Pacific whereas surface heat flux acts as a damping term. During a positive IPO phase, weakened wind-driven circulation acts to increase the OHC in the equatorial Pacific while the enhanced evaporation acts to damp OHC anomalies. In the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region, a dipole anomaly of zonal heat advection amplifies an OHC dipole anomaly that moves eastward, while strong turbulent heat fluxes act to dampen this OHC anomaly. In the northern subtropical Pacific, both the wind-driven evaporation change and the change of zonal heat advection along Kuroshio Extension contribute to the OHC change during phase transition. For the northern subpolar Pacific, both surface heat flux and enhanced meridional advection contribute to the positive OHC anomalies during the positive IPO phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Two Marine Heatwave (MHW) Variants under a Basinwide MHW Conditioning Mode in the North Pacific and Their Atlantic Associations

Abstract During 2013–16 and 2018–22, marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the North Pacific, exhibiting similar extensive coverage, lengthy duration, and significant intensity but with different warming centers. The warming center of the 2013–16 event was in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), while the 2018–22 event had warming centers in both the GOA and the coast of Japan (COJ). Our observational analysis indicates that these two events can be considered as two MHW variants induced by a basinwide MHW conditioning mode in the North Pacific. Both variants were driven thermodynamically by atmospheric wave trains propagating from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, within the conditioning mode. The origin and propagating path of these wave trains play a crucial role in determining the specific type of MHW variant. When a stronger wave train originates from the tropical central (western) Pacific, it leads to the GOA (COJ) variant. The cross-basin nature of the wave trains enables the two MHW variants to be accompanied by a tripolar pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic but with opposite phases. The association of these two MHW variants with the Atlantic Ocean also manifests in the decadal variations of their occurrence. Both variants tend to occur more frequently during the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation but less so during the negative phase. This study underscores the importance of cross-basin associations between the North Pacific and North Atlantic in shaping the dynamics of North Pacific MHWs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the Relative Contribution from Tropical Indo-Pacific SST to Asian Monsoon Precipitation Variability Using LIM

Abstract A critical issue is determining the factors that control the year-to-year variability in precipitation over southern Asia. In this study, we employ a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to quantify the relative contribution of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) to the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon, especially Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Through a series of CS-LIM experiments, we isolate the impacts of the direct forcing from Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs, and their interaction on Asian monsoon rainfall variability. Our results reveal distinct patterns of influence with the direct forcing from the Pacific (Indian) Ocean tending to enhance (reduce) the magnitude of precipitation variability, while the Indo-Pacific interaction acts to strongly damp the variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, especially over India. We further investigate these specific impacts on ISMR by analyzing the relationship between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs and the leading three empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR. The results from our CS-LIM experiments indicate that the direct forcing from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances the variability of the first and third EOFs, while the Indian Ocean SSTA opposes ENSO’s effects, which is consistent with previous studies. Our new results show that the tropical Indo-Pacific interaction strongly damps ISMR variability, which is due to the ENSO-induced Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) opposing the direct impacts from ENSO on ISMR. Additionally, reduced ENSO amplitude and duration associated with the Indo-Pacific interaction may also contribute to the damping effect on ISMR, but this requires further study to understand the relevant mechanisms.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Charts of 3-month sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were produced for the period 1949 to 1970. The anomalies along the United States and South American west coasts and in the eastern tropical Pacific appeared to be oscillating in phase during this period. Similarly, the satellite-derived cloudiness for each of four quadrants of the Pacific Ocean (130 deg E to 100 deg W, 30 deg N to 25 deg S) appeared to be oscillating in phase. In addition, a global tropical cloudiness oscillation from 30 deg N to 30 deg S was noted from 1965 to 1970, by using monthly satellite television nephanalyses. The SST anomalies were found to have a good degree of correlation both positive and negative with the following monthly geophysical parameters: (1) satellite-derived cloudiness, (2) strength of the North and South Pacific semipermanent anticyclones, (3) tropical Pacific island rainfall, and (4) Darwin surface pressure. Several strong direct local and crossequatorial relationships were noted. In particular, the high degree of correlation between the tropical island rainfall and the SST anomalies (r = +0.93) permitted the derivation of SST's for the tropical Pacific back to 1905. The close occurrence of cold tropical SST and North Pacific 700-mb positive height anomalies with central United States drought conditions was noted.

Allison, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Large-Scale Air Mass Characteristics Observed Over the Remote Tropical Pacific Ocean During March-April 1999: Results from PEM-Tropics B Field Experiment

Eighteen long-range flights over the Pacific Ocean between 38 S to 20 N and 166 E to 90 W were made by the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the NASA Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM) Tropics B conducted from March 6 to April 18, 1999. Two lidar systems were flown on the DC-8 to remotely measure vertical profiles of ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), aerosols, and clouds from near the surface to the upper troposphere along their flight track. In situ measurements of a wide range of gases and aerosols were made on the DC-8 for comprehensive characterization of the air and for correlation with the lidar remote measurements. The transition from northeasterly flow of Northern Hemispheric (NH) air on the northern side of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to generally easterly flow of Southern Hemispheric (SH) air south of the ITCZ was accompanied by a significant decrease in O3, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and aerosols and an increase in H2O. Trajectory analyses indicate that air north of the ITCZ came from Asia and/or the United States, while the air south of the ITCZ had a long residence time over the Pacific, perhaps originating over South America several weeks earlier. Air south of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) came rapidly from the west originating over Australia or Africa. This air had enhanced O3 and aerosols and an associated decrease in H2O. Average latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of O3 and H2O were constructed from the remote and in situ O3 and H2O data, and these distributions are compared with results from PEM-Tropics A conducted in August-October 1996. During PEM-Tropics B, low O3 air was found in the SH across the entire Pacific Basin at low latitudes. This was in strong contrast to the photochemically enhanced O3 levels found across the central and eastern Pacific low latitudes during PEM-Tropics A. Nine air mass types were identified for PEM-Tropics B based on their O3, aerosols, clouds, and potential vorticity characteristics. The data from each flight were binned by altitude according to air mass type, and these results showed the relative observational frequency of the different air masses as a function of altitude in seven regions over the Pacific. The average chemical composition of the major air mass types was determined from in situ measurements in the NH and SH, and these results provided insight into the origin, lifetime, and chemistry of the air in these regions.

Browell, Edward V.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The North Pacific as a Regulator of Summertime Climate Over North America and the Asian Monsoon

The interannual variability of summertime rainfall over the U.S. may be linked to climate anomalies over Pacific and East Asia through teleconnection patterns that may be components of recurring global climate modes in boreal summer (Lau and Weng 2002). In this study, maintenance of the boreal summer teleconnection patterns is investigated. The particular focus is on the potential effects of North Pacific air-sea interaction on climate anomalies over the U.S. Observational data, reanalysis and outputs of a series of NASA NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to NASA GSFC MLO model experiments are used. Statistical analysis of observations and NSIPP AMIP type simulations indicates that, the interannual variability of observed warm season precipitation over the U.S. is related to SST variation in both tropical and North Pacific, whereas the NSIPP AMIP simulated summertime US. precipitation variation mainly reflects impact of ENS0 in tropical Pacific. This implies the potential importance of air-sea interaction in North Pacific in contributing to the interannual variability of observed summer climate over the U.S. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the dominant summertime teleconnection modes in both observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations are further diagnosed, using stationary wave modeling approach. In observations, for the two dominant modes, both anomalous diabatic heating and anomalous transients significantly contribute to the anomalous circulation. The distributions of the anomalous diabatic heating and transient forcing are quadrature configured over North Pacific and North America, so that both forcings act constructively to maintain the teleconnection patterns. The contrast between observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations from stationary wave modeling diagnosis confirms the previous conclusion based on statistical analysis. To better appreciate the role of extra-tropical air-sea interaction in maintaining the summertime teleconnection pattern, various dynamical and physical fields and their inter- linkage in the series of NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to MLO model experiments are examined in-depth. Based on comparison between different model experiments, we will discuss the physical and dynamical mechanisms through which the air-sea interaction in extratropics, and transient mean flow interactions over the North Pacific, affects interannual variation of U.S. climate during boreal summer.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Asian Outflow and Trans-Pacific Transport of Carbon Monoxide and Ozone Pollution: An Integrated Satellite, Aircraft, and Model Perspective

Satellite observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument are combined with measurements from the Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission over the northwest Pacific and with a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) to quantify Asian pollution outflow and its trans-Pacific transport during spring 2001. Global CO column distributions in MOPITT and GEOS-CHEM are highly correlated (R(exp 2) = 0.87), with no significant model bias. The largest regional bias is over Southeast Asia, where the model is 18% too high. A 60% decrease of regional biomass burning emissions in the model (to 39 Tg/yr) would correct the discrepancy; this result is consistent with TRACE-P observations. MOPITT and TRACE-P also give consistent constraints on the Chinese source of CO from fuel combustion (181 Tg CO/yr). Four major events of trans-Pacific transport of Asian pollution in spring 2001 were seen by MOPITT, in situ platforms, and GEOS-CHEM. One of them was sampled by TRACE-P (26-27 February) as a succession of pollution layers over the northeast Pacific. These layers all originated from one single event of Asian outflow that split into northern and southern plumes over the central Pacific. The northern plume (sampled at 6-8 km off California) had no ozone enhancement. The southern subsiding plume (sampled at 2-4 km west of Hawaii) contained a 8 - 17 ppbv ozone enhancement, driven by decomposition of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) to nitrogen oxides (NOx). This result suggests that PAN decomposition in trans-Pacific pollution plumes subsiding over the United States could lead to significant enhancements of surface ozone.

Heald, Colette L.↗