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Results for “Palaeoclimate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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26 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Is Ice-Rafted Sediment in a North Pole Marine Record Evidence for Perennial Sea-ice Cover?

Ice-rafted sediments of Eurasian and North American origin are found consistently in the upper part (13 Ma BP to present) of the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) ocean core from the Lomonosov Ridge, near the North Pole (approximately 88 degrees N). Based on modern sea-ice drift trajectories and speeds, this has been taken as evidence of the presence of a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean from the middle Miocene onwards. However, other high latitude land and marine records indicate a long-term trend towards cooling broken by periods of extensive warming suggestive of a seasonally ice-free Arctic between the Miocene and the present. We use a coupled sea-ice slab-ocean model including sediment transport tracers to map the spatial distribution of ice-rafted deposits in the Arctic Ocean. We use 6 hourly wind forcing and surface heat fluxes for two different climates: one with a perennial sea-ice cover similar to that of the present day and one with seasonally ice-free conditions, similar to that simulated in future projections. Model results confirm that in the present-day climate, sea ice takes more than 1 year to transport sediment from all its peripheral seas to the North Pole. However, in a warmer climate, sea-ice speeds are significantly faster (for the same wind forcing) and can deposit sediments of Laptev, East Siberian and perhaps also Beaufort Sea origin at the North Pole. This is primarily because of the fact that sea-ice interactions are much weaker with a thinner ice cover and there is less resistance to drift. We conclude that the presence of ice-rafted sediment of Eurasian and North American origin at the North Pole does not imply a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, reconciling the ACEX ocean core data with other land and marine records.

Palaeoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Reconstruction of Global Hydroclimate and Dynamical Variables Over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Natural hazards↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Quantitative Hydroclimatic Context for the European Great Famine of 1315–1317

The European Great Famine of 1315–1317 triggered one of the worst population collapses in European history and ranks as the single worst European famine in mortality as a proportion of population. Historical records point to torrential rainfall, land saturation, crop failure, and prolonged flooding as important causes of the famine. Here we use the tree-ring based Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) to show that the average of each growing season preceding the Great Famine years (1314–1316) was the fifth wettest over Europe from 1300 to 2012 C.E. The spatial and temporal characteristics of our OWDA-estimated anomalies are in excellent agreement with available historical accounts. We also characterize a mode of European hydroclimate variability that is associated with the Great Famine, which we term the “Great Famine mode.” This mode emerges as the leading mode of European hydroclimate variability from 1300–2012 and is strongly associated with extreme wet and dry events in Europe over the last millennium.

Environmental impact↗
NASA NTRS2021

Summer temperatures during the last glaciation (MIS 5c to MIS 3) inferred from a 50,000-year chironomid record from Füramoos, southern Germany

There is a sparsity of long, continuous palaeotemperature records for the last glacial period in central Europe, particularly for the interval corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 4 and 3. Here we present a new, ca. 50-thousand year (ka)-long chironomid record from Füramoos, southern Germany, covering the interval from MIS 5a to MIS 3 that we use to examine lake development and then to quantitatively reconstruct mean July air temperatures. Chironomid assemblages with high abundances of taxa such as Polypedilum nubeculosum-type, Microtendipes pedellus-type, Cladopelma lateralis-type and Dicrotendipes nervosus-type imply a shallow-lake setting for the majority of the examined interval, which is corroborated by other aquatic remains such as oribatid mites, Sialidae and Ceratopogonidae. Assemblages from the interval ca. 99 to 80 ka (in the region corresponding to the Brörup Interstadial, Stadial B and early Odderade Interstadial) are dominated by taxa such as Tanytarsus glabrescens-type and Tanytarsus mendax-type and indicate relatively warm temperatures. Assemblages from the interval covering ca. 80 to 54 ka (corresponding to the late Odderade, Stadial C, Dürnten Interstadial and Stadial D) are dominated by taxa such as Sergentia coracina-type and Tanytarsus lugens-type and are typical for cooler conditions. Reconstructed July temperatures for the early Würmian (Brörup to early Odderade; ca. 99–80 ka) are 13–14 °C. Values decline to <10 °C during the late Odderade and Stadial C (ca. 80–77 ka) around the MIS 5a/4 transition. This decrease is coeval with a pronounced decrease in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Values stay in the range of 9–11 °C during the Dürnten and Stadial D (ca. 54–74.5 ka) and increase again to 12.5 °C during the Bellamont 1 interstadial (ca. 54–46 ka). Reconstructed July temperatures track changes in arboreal pollen percentages at Füramoos and agree with a summer-temperature decrease during the early to mid-Würmian as reported by other palaeotemperature records from Europe and the North Atlantic. Our chironomid record from Füramoos provides valuable new insights into Würmian climate dynamics in Central Europe, and corroborates other temperature reconstructions from the early to mid-Würmian glacial period.

Chironomids↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Toba Supervolcano Eruption Caused Severe Tropical Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

Supervolcano eruptions have occurred throughout Earth’s history and have major environmental impacts. These impacts are mostly associated with the attenuation of visible sunlight by stratospheric sulfate aerosols, which causes cooling and deceleration of the water cycle. Supereruptions have been assumed to cause so-called volcanic winters that act as primary evolutionary factors through ecosystem disruption and famine, however, winter conditions alone may not be sufficient to cause such disruption. Here we use Earth system model simulations to show that stratospheric sulfur emissions from the Toba supereruption 74,000 years ago caused severe stratospheric ozone loss through a radiation attenuation mechanism that only moderately depends on the emission magnitude. The Toba plume strongly inhibited oxygen photolysis, suppressing ozone formation in the tropics, where exceptionally depleted ozone conditions persisted for over a year. This effect, when combined with volcanic winter in the extra-tropics, can account for the impacts of supereruptions on ecosystems and humanity.

Atmospheric chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2019

Industrial-Era Decline in Subarctic Atlantic Productivity

Marine phytoplankton play a critical role in modulating marine-based food webs, fishery yields, and the global drawdown of atmospheric CO2. Due to sparse measurements prior to 21st century satellite monitoring, however, little is known of the long-term response of planktonic stocks to climate forcing. Here we produce the first continuous, multi-century record of subarctic Atlantic marine productivity, showing a marked 10 ± 7% decline has occurred across this highly-productive ocean basin over the last two centuries. We support this conclusion through the application of a novel marine-productivity proxy, established using a unique signal of planktonic-derived aerosol commonly identified across an array of Greenlandic ice cores. Utilizing contemporaneous satellite-era observations, we demonstrate this signal’s use as a robust and high-resolution proxy for spatially-integrated marine productivity variations. We show that the initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity broadly coincides with the onset of Arctic surface warming, and that productivity strongly covaries with regional sea-surface temperatures and basin-wide gyre circulation strength over recent decades. Taken together, our results suggest the industrial era productivity decline may be evidence of the predicted5 collapse of northern Atlantic planktonic stocks in response to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Continued AMOC weakening, as projected for the 21st century, may therefore result in further productivity declines across this globally-relevant region.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Temperatures in West Antarctica During the Holocene

The recovery of long-term climate proxy records with seasonal resolution is rare because of natural smoothing processes, discontinuities, and limitations in measurement resolution. Yet insolation forcing, a primary driver of multi-millennial-scale climate change, acts through seasonal variations with direct impacts on seasonal climate. Whether the sensitivity of seasonal climate to insolation matches theoretical predictions has not been assessed over long timescales. Here, we analyze a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid Holocene, reached a peak at 4.1 ka, and then decreased to the present. Climate model simulations show that these variations primarily reflect changes in maximum summer insolation, confirming the general connection between seasonal insolation and warming, and demonstrating the importance of insolation intensity rather than seasonally integrated insolation or season duration. Winter temperatures varied less overall, consistent with predictions from insolation forcing, but also fluctuated in the early Holocene, likely owing to changes in meridional heat transport. The magnitudes of summer and winter temperature changes constrain the lowering of the WAIS surface since the early Holocene to less than 162 m, and most likely less than 58 m, consistent with geological constraints elsewhere in West Antarctica.

Cryospheric science↗
NASA NTRS2024

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science Plan and Experimental Design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments (Eoi 400 , E 280 ) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations.

Climate modelling↗