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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.

Foreman, Veronica L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Software sizing, cost estimation and scheduling

The Technology Implementation and Support Section at Martin Marietta Astronautics Group Denver is tasked with software development analysis, data collection, software productivity improvement and developing and applying various computerized software tools and models. The computerized tools are parametric models that reflect actuals taken from the large data base of completed software development projects. Martin Marietta's data base consists of over 300 completed projects and hundreds of cost estimating relationships (CERs) that are used in sizing, costing, scheduling and productivity improvement equations, studies, models and computerized tools.

Cheadle, William G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of a Multivariable Parametric Cost Analysis for Space-Based Telescopes

Over the past 400 years, the telescope has proven to be a valuable tool in helping humankind understand the Universe around us. The images and data produced by telescopes have revolutionized planetary, solar, stellar, and galactic astronomy and have inspired a wide range of people, from the child who dreams about the images seen on NASA websites to the most highly trained scientist. Like all scientific endeavors, astronomical research must operate within the constraints imposed by budget limitations. Hence the importance of understanding cost: to find the balance between the dreams of scientists and the restrictions of the available budget. By logically analyzing the data we have collected for over thirty different telescopes from more than 200 different sources, statistical methods, such as plotting regressions and residuals, can be used to determine what drives the cost of telescopes to build and use a cost model for space-based telescopes. Previous cost models have focused their attention on ground-based telescopes due to limited data for space telescopes and the larger number and longer history of ground-based astronomy. Due to the increased availability of cost data from recent space-telescope construction, we have been able to produce and begin testing a comprehensive cost model for space telescopes, with guidance from the cost models for ground-based telescopes. By separating the variables that effect cost such as diameter, mass, wavelength, density, data rate, and number of instruments, we advance the goal to better understand the cost drivers of space telescopes.. The use of sophisticated mathematical techniques to improve the accuracy of cost models has the potential to help society make informed decisions about proposed scientific projects. An improved knowledge of cost will allow scientists to get the maximum value returned for the money given and create a harmony between the visions of scientists and the reality of a budget.

Dollinger, Courtnay↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Technology Estimating 2: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

As a leader in space technology research and development, NASA is continuing in the development of the Technology Estimating process, initiated in 2012, for estimating the cost and schedule of low maturity technology research and development, where the Technology Readiness Level is less than TRL 6. NASA' s Technology Roadmap areas consist of 14 technology areas. The focus of this continuing Technology Estimating effort included four Technology Areas (TA): TA3 Space Power and Energy Storage, TA4 Robotics, TA8 Instruments, and TA12 Materials, to confine the research to the most abundant data pool. This research report continues the development of technology estimating efforts completed during 2013-2014, and addresses the refinement of parameters selected and recommended for use in the estimating process, where the parameters developed are applicable to Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) used in the parametric cost estimating analysis. This research addresses the architecture for administration of the Technology Cost and Scheduling Estimating tool, the parameters suggested for computer software adjunct to any technology area, and the identification of gaps in the Technology Estimating process.

Cole, Stuart K.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Mission Options Scoping Tool for Mars Orbiters: Mass Cost Calculator (MC2)

Prior to developing the details of an advanced mission study, the mission architecture trade space is typically explored to assess the scope of feasible options. This paper describes the main features of an Excel-based tool, called the Mass-Cost-Calculator (MC2 ), which is used to perform rapid, high-level mass and cost options analyses of Mars orbiter missions. MC2 consists of a combination of databases, analytical solutions, and parametric relationships to enable quick evaluation of new mission concepts and comparison of multiple architecture options. The tool's outputs provide program management and planning teams with answers to "what if" queries, as well as an understanding of the driving mission elements, during the pre-project planning phase. These outputs have been validated against the outputs generated by the Advanced Projects Design Team (Team X) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The architecture of the tool allows for future expansion to other orbiters beyond Mars, and to non-orbiter missions, such as those involving fly-by spacecraft, probes, landers, rovers, or other mission elements.

orbiters↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA's X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model v 2.0

The NASA Armstrong Cost Engineering Team with technical assistance from NASA HQ (SID)has gone through the full process in developing new CERs from Version #1 to Version #2 CERs. We took a step backward and reexamined all of the data collected, such as dependent and independent variables, cost, dry weight, length, wingspan, manned versus unmanned, altitude, Mach number, thrust, and skin. We used a well- known statistical analysis tool called CO$TAT instead of using "R" multiple linear or the "Regression" tool found in Microsoft Excel(TradeMark). We setup an "array of data" by adding 21" dummy variables;" we analyzed the standard error (SE) and then determined the "best fit." We have parametrically priced-out several future X-planes and compared our results to those of other resources. More work needs to be done in getting "accurate and traceable cost data" from historical X-plane records!

life cycle cost↗
NASA NTRS1975

A generalized concept for cost-effective structural design

A generalized concept for cost-effective structural design is introduced. It is assumed that decisions affecting the cost effectiveness of aerospace structures fall into three basic categories: design, verification, and operation. Within these basic categories, certain decisions concerning items such as design configuration, safety factors, testing methods, and operational constraints are to be made. All or some of the variables affecting these decisions may be treated probabilistically. Bayesian statistical decision theory is used as the tool for determining the cost optimum decisions. A special case of the general problem is derived herein, and some very useful parametric curves are developed and applied to several sample structures.

Thomas, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS)

Developing credible mass and cost estimates for space exploration and development architectures require multidisciplinary analysis based on physics calculations, and parametric estimates derived from historical systems. Within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), concurrent engineering environment (CEE) activities integrate discipline oriented analysis tools through a computer network and accumulate the results of a multidisciplinary analysis team via a centralized database or spreadsheet Each minute of a design and analysis study within a concurrent engineering environment is expensive due the size of the team and supporting equipment The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) reduces the cost of architecture analysis by capturing the knowledge of discipline experts into system oriented spreadsheet models. A framework with a user interface presents a library of system models to an architecture analyst. The analyst selects models of launchers, in-space transportation systems, and excursion vehicles, as well as space and surface infrastructure such as propellant depots, habitats, and solar power satellites. After assembling the architecture from the selected models, the analyst can create a campaign comprised of missions spanning several years. The ATLAS controller passes analyst specified parameters to the models and data among the models. An integrator workbook calls a history based parametric analysis cost model to determine the costs. Also, the integrator estimates the flight rates, launched masses, and architecture benefits over the years of the campaign. An accumulator workbook presents the analytical results in a series of bar graphs. In no way does ATLAS compete with a CEE; instead, ATLAS complements a CEE by ensuring that the time of the experts is well spent Using ATLAS, an architecture analyst can perform technology sensitivity analysis, study many scenarios, and see the impact of design decisions. When the analyst is satisfied with the system configurations, technology portfolios, and deployment strategies, he or she can present the concepts to a team, which will conduct a detailed, discipline-oriented analysis within a CEE. An analog to this approach is the music industry where a songwriter creates the lyrics and music before entering a recording studio.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Mechanical Prototyping and Manufacturing Internship

The internship was located at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) Innovation Design Center (IDC), which is a facility where the JSC workforce can meet and conduct hands-on innovative design, fabrication, evaluation, and testing of ideas and concepts relevant to NASA's mission. The tasks of the internship included mechanical prototyping design and manufacturing projects in service of research and development as well as assisting the users of the IDC in completing their manufacturing projects. The first project was to manufacture hatch mechanisms for a team in the Systems Engineering and Project Advancement Program (SETMAP) hexacopter competition. These mechanisms were intended to improve the performance of the servomotors and offer an access point that would also seal to prevent cross-contamination. I also assisted other teams as they were constructing and modifying their hexacopters. The success of this competition demonstrated a proof of concept for aerial reconnaissance and sample return to be potentially used in future NASA missions. I also worked with Dr. Kumar Krishen to prototype an improved thermos and a novel, portable solar array. Computer-aided design (CAD) software was used to model the parts for both of these projects. Then, 3D printing as well as conventional techniques were used to produce the parts. These prototypes were then subjected to trials to determine the success of the designs. The solar array is intended to work in a cluster that is easy to set up and take down and doesn't require powered servomechanisms. It could be used terrestrially in areas not serviced by power grids. Both projects improve planetary exploration capabilities to future astronauts. Other projects included manufacturing custom rail brackets for EG-2, assisting engineers working on underwater instrument and tool cases for the NEEMO project, and helping to create mock-up parts for Space Center Houston. The use of the IDC enabled efficient completion of these projects at significantly reduced cost. I acquired and improved manufacturing and prototyping skills during my tour including learning about a CAD (Computer-Aided Design) program called Creo (Creo Parametric; design software), gaining valuable conventional machining experience with lathes, CNC (Computer Numerical Control) milling machines and various other tools, and improving my engineering project communication and collaboration skills. The internship also allowed me to better understand operations at NASA. I plan to work in the aerospace industry or do academic research benefitting space science and exploration, and this internship experience will enable me to have insight into manufacturing processes for research and development.

Grenfell, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

Wang, Jianzhong Jay↗
NASA NTRS2006

Adjoint Sensitivity Computations for an Embedded-Boundary Cartesian Mesh Method and CAD Geometry

Cartesian-mesh methods are perhaps the most promising approach for addressing the issues of flow solution automation for aerodynamic design problems. In these methods, the discretization of the wetted surface is decoupled from that of the volume mesh. This not only enables fast and robust mesh generation for geometry of arbitrary complexity, but also facilitates access to geometry modeling and manipulation using parametric Computer-Aided Design (CAD) tools. Our goal is to combine the automation capabilities of Cartesian methods with an eficient computation of design sensitivities. We address this issue using the adjoint method, where the computational cost of the design sensitivities, or objective function gradients, is esseutially indepeudent of the number of design variables. In previous work, we presented an accurate and efficient algorithm for the solution of the adjoint Euler equations discretized on Cartesian meshes with embedded, cut-cell boundaries. Novel aspects of the algorithm included the computation of surface shape sensitivities for triangulations based on parametric-CAD models and the linearization of the coupling between the surface triangulation and the cut-cells. The objective of the present work is to extend our adjoint formulation to problems involving general shape changes. Central to this development is the computation of volume-mesh sensitivities to obtain a reliable approximation of the objective finction gradient. Motivated by the success of mesh-perturbation schemes commonly used in body-fitted unstructured formulations, we propose an approach based on a local linearization of a mesh-perturbation scheme similar to the spring analogy. This approach circumvents most of the difficulties that arise due to non-smooth changes in the cut-cell layer as the boundary shape evolves and provides a consistent approximation tot he exact gradient of the discretized abjective function. A detailed gradient accurace study is presented to verify our approach. Thereafter, we focus on a shape optimization problem for an Apollo-like reentry capsule. The optimization seeks to enhance the lift-to-drag ratio of the capsule by modifyjing the shape of its heat-shield in conjunction with a center-of-gravity (c.g.) offset. This multipoint and multi-objective optimization problem is used to demonstrate the overall effectiveness of the Cartesian adjoint method for addressing the issues of complex aerodynamic design. This abstract presents only a brief outline of the numerical method and results; full details will be given in the final paper.

Nemec, Marian↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A New Concurrent Engineering Tool for the New Mission Design Center at NASA Ames Research Center

The NASA Ames Mission Design Center (MDC) has undergone a significant transformation process in recent years, culminating in becoming a true Concurrent Engineering Center. The underlying goal of this transformation is to better serve the Ames PI community in a cost-effective and rapidly-responsive way, providing quality products pivotal to the decision-making proposal strategy of our center. The four pillars of the change focus on four areas: personnel, physical places, tools, and training. Personnel: the MDC switched from using a dedicated pool of engineers—mostly entry-level career—for a matrixed approach with more experienced Subject Matter Experts, usually involved in spaceflight projects. These SMEs get detailed to the MDC for the duration of the study on a part-time or full-time basis. Physical places: The physical aspect pertains mostly to the layout of the new Engineering building and the dedicated concurrent engineering layout to foster collaboration. The current plan includes a dedicated space for concurrent engineering sessions as well as dedicated project rooms for concept studies. Tool: the MDC team is developing a new in-house concurrent engineering tool to facilitate concurrent engineering sessions. The team leveraged the many lessons learned and insight gained from using the current concurrent engineering tool, in use since 2007. SMEs have been involved throughout its design and development, ensuring accuracy and providing validity to the implementation approach. This new tool is database-driven and allows a team to work concurrently on the same model of a mission concept. “Workspaces” are provided for each of the traditional spacecraft mission design disciplines, including cost accounting and systems engineering. There are multiple tiers of fidelity available within each workspace, which can be completed parametrically or independently from the other disciplines as needed or synchronously with the other disciplines. A “commit” step synchronizes a workspace with the mission database and identifies any potential conflicts, along with the user who entered the conflicting data. A Mission Summary workspace enables a Study Lead to run an effective CE session, displaying key graphics, workspace status information, and technical and monetary budget information. This new CE tool will be undergoing Beta Testing with its primary user base and a limited Parts database in the summer of 2020. The team plans to release the first fully operational version in December 2020. Training: working in early concept development and maturation for a space mission requires a unique mindset and being comfortable with uncertainties in an environment where requirements are not yet fully developed, and where changes and trade-offs happen at a high tempo. The MDC started a weekly training program to ensure a common knowledge base on how do develop and mature early concept studies, as well as how to operate in a concurrent engineering environment. In conclusion, the MDC transformation will provide the overall PI community focused on cost-effective small satellite scientific missions with a powerful tool to address and mature early concepts more effectively and efficiently.

David Mauro↗
NASA NTRS1971

Information transfer satellite concept study. Volume 4: computer manual

The Satellite Telecommunications Analysis and Modeling Program (STAMP) provides the user with a flexible and comprehensive tool for the analysis of ITS system requirements. While obtaining minimum cost design points, the program enables the user to perform studies over a wide range of user requirements and parametric demands. The program utilizes a total system approach wherein the ground uplink and downlink, the spacecraft, and the launch vehicle are simultaneously synthesized. A steepest descent algorithm is employed to determine the minimum total system cost design subject to the fixed user requirements and imposed constraints. In the process of converging to the solution, the pertinent subsystem tradeoffs are resolved. This report documents STAMP through a technical analysis and a description of the principal techniques employed in the program.

Bergin, P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Design, Fabrication, and Performance of Foil Gas Thrust Bearings for Microturbomachinery Applications

A methodology for the design and construction of simple foil thrust bearings intended for parametric performance testing and low marginal costs is presented. Features drawn from a review of the open literature are discussed as they relate to bearing performance. The design of fixtures and tooling required to fabricate foil thrust bearings is presented, using conventional machining processes where possible. A prototype bearing with dimensions drawn from the literature is constructed, with all fabrication steps described. A load-deflection curve for the bearing is presented to illustrate structural stiffness characteristics. Start-top cycles are performed on the bearing at a temperature of 425 C to demonstrate early-life wear patterns. A test of bearing load capacity demonstrates useful performance when compared with data obtained from the open literature.

Dykas, Brian↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gradient-Enhanced Reliability Analysis of Transonic Aeroelastic Flutter

Reliability computation for transonic aeroelastic systems is a challenging task, given the complex physical mechanisms involved, and broader challenges associated with computing small probabilities of failure/flutter. This paper demonstrates the use of four different reliability estimation tools, with a particular focus on tools that can utilize gradient information: the derivative of flutter boundaries with respect to random parametric inputs. Results are shown for two test cases: the AGARD 445.6 case and the Common Research Model, and the strength and weaknesses of each UQ tool are compared in terms of cost and accuracy. Two of the UQ tools used here require gradients as part of a search process, but the other two are sample-based, and are able to leverage the existence of gradients for improved performance.

Bret K Stanford↗
NASA NTRS2005

Journal Bearing Analysis Suite Released for Planetary Gear System Evaluation

Planetary gear systems are an efficient means of achieving high reduction ratios with minimum space and weight. They are used in helicopter, aerospace, automobile, and many industrial applications. High-speed planetary gear systems will have significant dynamic loading and high heat generation. Hence, they need jet lubrication and associated cooling systems. For units operating in critical applications that necessitate high reliability and long life, that have very large torque loading, and that have downtime costs that are significantly greater than the initial cost, hydrodynamic journal bearings are a must. Computational and analytical tools are needed for sufficiently accurate modeling to facilitate optimal design of these systems. Sufficient physics is needed in the model to facilitate parametric studies of design conditions that enable optimal designs. The first transient journal bearing code to implement the Jacobsson-Floberg-Olsson boundary conditions, using a mass-conserving algorithm devised by Professor Emeritus Harold Elrod of Columbia University, was written by David E. Brewe of the U.S. Army at the NASA Lewis Research Center1 in 1983. Since then, new features and improved modifications have been built into the code by several contributors supported through Army and NASA funding via cooperative agreements with the University of Toledo (Professor Ted Keith, Jr., and Dr. Desikakary Vijayaraghavan) and National Research Council Programs (Dr. Vijayaraghavan). All this was conducted with the close consultation of Professor Elrod and the project management of David Brewe.

Brewe, David E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Designing for cost

Parametric cost analysis is presently defined as the generation and application of equations to cost analysis; equations defining cost as a function of system-design parameters, performance parameters, or engineering process parameters, constitute a valuable tool for design-to-cost efforts. Cost sensitivity is expressed through the partial derivatives of these functions, furnishing insight into the magnitude and direction of cost change for given parameter changes. The robust design method thus obtained is a systematic and efficient approach for determining the near-optimum set of design parameters for cost, which highlights important factors affecting operation and performance as well as cost.

Dean, Edwin B.↗