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At least 37 records · Page 2

The impact of curation errors in the PDBBind Database on machine learning predictions of protein–protein binding affinity

The PDBBind database has been widely utilized for the computational prediction of protein–protein binding affinities. While the accuracy of the PDBBind-curated equilibrium dissociation constants (K D ) has been reported for the protein–ligand subset of the PDBBind database, the curation accuracy has not been reported for the protein–protein subset. Here, we present a detailed manual analysis for the subset of PDBBind records with PubMed Central Open Access primary publications and find that ~19% of these records had K D values that were not supported by their primary publications. The impact of these putative curation errors on the machine learning-based prediction of K D from experimental protein–protein 3D structures was evaluated and correcting the curation errors improved the Pearson correlation coefficient between measured and random forest-predicted log 10 (K D ) values by ~8 percentage points. This finding underscores the importance of dataset accuracy for computational modelling and highlights the need for more stringent curation processes when extracting information from the scientific literature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Probing nuclear quadrupole deformation from correlation of elliptic flow and transverse momentum in heavy ion collisions

In heavy ion collisions, elliptic flow v2 and radial flow, characterized by eventwise average transverse momentum [p T ], are related to the shape and size of the overlap region, which are sensitive to the shape of colliding atomic nuclei. The Pearson correlation coefficient between v 2 and [p T ], ρ 2 , was found to be particularly sensitive to the quadrupole deformation parameter β that is traditionally measured in low energy experiments. Built on earlier insight that the prolate deformation β>0 reduces the ρ 2 in ultracentral collisions (UCC), we show that the prolate deformation β<0 enhances the value of ρ 2 . As β>0 and β<0 are the two extremes of triaxiality, the strength and sign of v 2 2 -[pT] correlation can be used to provide valuable information on the triaxiality of the nucleus. Our study provide further arguments for using the hydrodynamic flow as a precision tool to directly image the deformation of the atomic nuclei at extremely short timescale (<10 -24 s).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Uncertainty quantification for neutrino opacities in core-collapse supernovae and neutron star mergers

We perform an extensive study of the correlations between the neutrino-nucleon inverse mean free paths (IMFPs) and the underlying equation of states (EoSs). Strong interaction uncertainties in the neutrino mean free path are investigated in different density regimes. The nucleon effective mass, the nucleon chemical potentials, and the residual interactions in the medium play an important role in determining neutrino-nucleon interactions in a density-dependent manner. Here we study how the above quantities are constrained by an EoS consistent with (i) nuclear mass measurements, (ii) proton-proton scattering phase shifts, and (iii) neutron star observations. We then study the uncertainties of both the charged current and the neutral current neutrino-nucleon inverse mean free paths due to the variation of these quantities, using the Hartree-Fock+random phase approximation method. Finally, we calculate the Pearson correlation coefficients between (i) the EoS-based quantities and the EoS-based quantities; (ii) the EoS-based quantities and the IMFPs; (iii) the IMFPs and the IMFPs. We find a strong impact of residual interactions on neutrino opacity in the spin and spin-isospin channels, which are not well constrained by current nuclear modelings.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗

The AUREX cell: a versatile operando electrochemical cell for studying catalytic materials using X-ray diffraction, total scattering and X-ray absorption spectroscopy under working conditions

Understanding the structure–property relationship in electrocatalysts under working conditions is crucial for the rational design of novel and improved catalytic materials. This paper presents the Aarhus University reactor for electrochemical studies using X-rays (AUREX) operando electrocatalytic flow cell, designed as an easy-to-use versatile setup with a minimal background contribution and a uniform flow field to limit concentration polarization and handle gas formation. The cell has been employed to measure operando total scattering, diffraction and absorption spectroscopy as well as simultaneous combinations thereof on a commercial silver electrocatalyst for proof of concept. This combination of operando techniques allows for monitoring of the short-, medium- and long-range structure under working conditions, including an applied potential, liquid electrolyte and local reaction environment. The structural transformations of the Ag electrocatalyst are monitored with non-negative matrix factorization, linear combination analysis, the Pearson correlation coefficient matrix, and refinements in both real and reciprocal space. Upon application of an oxidative potential in an Ar-saturated aqueous 0.1 M KHCO 3 /K 2 CO 3 electrolyte, the face-centered cubic (f.c.c.) Ag gradually transforms first to a trigonal Ag 2 CO 3 phase, followed by the formation of a monoclinic Ag 2 CO 3 phase. A reducing potential immediately reverts the structure to the Ag (f.c.c.) phase. Following the electrochemical-reaction-induced phase transitions is of fundamental interest and necessary for understanding and improving the stability of electrocatalysts, and the operando cell proves a versatile setup for probing this. In addition, it is demonstrated that, when studying electrochemical reactions, a high energy or short exposure time is needed to circumvent beam-induced effects.

Frank, Sara (ORCID:0000000163218363)↗

Temporal Forecasting of Distributed Temperature Sensing in a Thermal Hydraulic System With Machine Learning and Statistical Models

We benchmark performance of long-short term memory (LSTM) network machine learning model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model in temporal forecasting of distributed temperature sensing (DTS). Data in this study consists of fluid temperature transient measured with two co-located Rayleigh scattering fiber optic sensors (FOS) in a forced convection mixing zone of a thermal tee. We treat each gauge of a FOS as an independent temperature sensor. We first study prediction of DTS time series using Vanilla LSTM and ARIMA models trained on prior history of the same FOS that is used for testing. The results yield maximum absolute percentage error (MaxAPE) and root mean squared percentage error (RMSPE) of 1.58% and 0.06% for ARIMA, and 3.14% and 0.44% for LSTM, respectively. Next, we investigate zero-shot forecasting (ZSF) with LSTM and ARIMA trained on history of the co-located FOS only, which is advantageous when limited training data is available. The ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE values for ARIMA are comparable to those of the Vanilla use case, while the error values for LSTM increase. We show that in ZSF, performance of LSTM network can be improved by training on most correlated gauges between the two FOS, which are identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient. The improved ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE for LSTM are 4.4% and 0.33%, respectively. Performance of ZSF LSTM can be further enhanced through transfer learning (TL), where LSTM is re-trained on a subset of the FOS that is the target of forecasting. We show that LSTM pre-trained on correlated dataset and re-trained on 30% of testing target dataset achieves MaxAPE and RMSPE values of 2.32% and 0.28%, respectively.

ARIMA↗

Discriminating Quantum States with Quantum Machine Learning

Quantum machine learning (QML) algorithms have obtained great relevance in the machine learning (ML) field due to the promise of quantum speedups when performing basic linear algebra subroutines (BLAS), a fundamental element in most ML algorithms. By making use of BLAS operations, we propose, implement and analyze a quantum k-means (qk-means) algorithm with a low time complexity of O(NKlog(D)I/C) to apply it to the fundamental problem of discriminating quantum states at readout. Discriminating quantum states allows the identification of quantum states |0⟩ and |1⟩ from low-level in-phase and quadrature signal (IQ) data, and can be done using custom ML models. In order to reduce dependency on a classical computer, we use the qk-means to perform state discrimination on the IBMQ Bogota device and managed to find assignment fidelities of up to 98.7% that were only marginally lower than that of the k-means algorithm. We also performed a cross-talk benchmark on the quantum device by applying both algorithms to perform state discrimination on a combination of quantum states and using Pearson Correlation coefficients and assignment fidelities of discrimination results to conclude on the presence of cross-talk on qubits. Evidence shows cross-talk in the (1, 2) and (2, 3) neighboring qubit couples for the analyzed device.

Quiroga, David↗

Rapid screening of secondary aromatic metabolites in Populus trichocarpa leaves

Abstract Background High-throughput metabolomics analytical methodology is needed for population-scale studies of bioenergy-relevant feedstocks such as poplar ( Populus sp.). Here, the authors report the relative abundance of extractable aromatic metabolites in Populus trichocarpa leaves rapidly estimated using pyrolysis-molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS). Poplar leaves were analyzed in conjunction with and validated by GC/MS analysis of extracts to determine key spectral features used to build PLS models to predict the relative composition of extractable aromatic metabolites in whole poplar leaves. Results The Pearson correlation coefficient for the relative abundance of extractable aromatic metabolites based on ranking between GC/MS analysis and py-MBMS analysis of the Boardman leaf set was 0.86 with R 2 = 0.76 using a simplified prediction approach from select ions in MBMS spectra. Metabolites most influential to py-MBMS spectral features in the Clatskanie set included the following compounds: catechol, salicortin, salicyloyl-coumaroyl-glucoside conjugates, α-salicyloylsalicin, tremulacin, as well as other salicylates, trichocarpin, salicylic acid, and various tremuloidin conjugates. Ions in py-MBMS spectra with the highest correlation to the abundance of extractable aromatic metabolites as determined by GC/MS analysis of extracts, included m/z 68, 71, 77, 91, 94, 105, 107, 108, and 122, and were used to develop the simplified prediction approach without PLS models or a priori measurements. Conclusions The simplified py-MBMS method is capable of rapidly screening leaf tissue for relative abundance of extractable aromatic secondary metabolites to enable prioritization of samples in large populations requiring comprehensive metabolomics that will ultimately inform plant systems biology models and advance the development of optimized biomass feedstocks for renewable fuels and chemicals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Phenomenological study on correlation between flow harmonics and mean transverse momentum in nuclear collisions

To assess the properties of the quark-gluon plasma formed in nuclear collisions, the Pearson correlation coefficient between flow harmonics and mean transverse momentum, \rho\left(v_{n}^{2},\left[p_{\mathrm{T}}\right]\right) ρ ( v n 2 , [ p T ] ) , reflecting the overlapped geometry of colliding atomic nuclei, is measured. \rho\left(v_{2}^{2},\left[p_{\mathrm{T}}\right]\right) ρ ( v 2 2 , [ p T ] ) was found to be particularly sensitive to the quadrupole deformation of the nuclei. We study the influence of the nuclear quadrupole deformation on \rho\left(v_{n}^{2},\left[p_{\mathrm{T}}\right]\right) ρ ( v n 2 , [ p T ] ) in Au+Au and U+U collisions at RHIC energy using AMPT transport model, and show that the \rho\left(v_{2}^{2},\left[p_{\mathrm{T}}\right]\right) ρ ( v 2 2 , [ p T ] ) is reduced by the quadrupole deformation \beta_2 β 2 and turns to change sign in ultra-central collisions (UCC).

Zhang, Chunjian↗

Verification Testing of OLI Systems Mixed Solvent Electrolyte Model for the Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 ) System to High Ionic Strength at 25°C

This technical report summarizes model verification results and summary statistics for 41 evaporite mineral solubility cases evaluated by Savannah River National Laboratory using OLI Systems’ aqueous electrolyte thermodynamic modeling software. The 41 verification cases containing a total of 60 solubility curves comprise mineral solubility data from low to high ionic strength at 25°C for the eight-component system Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 O as reported by Harvie et al. (1984). Thermodynamic calculations were executed using OLI Systems’ Stream Analyzer computation module within the OLI Studio software platform (Ver. 11.0, Rev. 11.0.1.9). The Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) thermodynamic framework was chosen for this investigation because of its superiority in modeling high ionic-strength inorganic salt solutions and actinide redox chemistry and solubility, both of which are relevant to the geological repository conditions at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, New Mexico. Mineral solubility data in various inorganic salt solutions were digitized and extracted from figures generated by Harvie et al. (1984). For each of the 60 solubility curves, a case-specific chemistry model and input file were generated in OLI Studio using OLI Stream Analyzer and the MSE (H 3 O + ion) public databank provided by OLI Systems. Model simulation results were exported to Microsoft Excel to calculate summary statistics and to generate graphs comparing the OLI model predictions to the solubility data. Summary statistics include residuals (model – data) and concordance (accuracy × precision, where precision is indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient and accuracy accounts for bias and scale differential). Private databanks were not developed, and activity coefficient model regressions were not performed to improve OLI model fits to the data. Of the 41 model verification plots, 83% have a mean of the percent residuals less than or equal to 25%. Similarly, 75% display a concordance greater than or equal to 0.75. Only seven of the 41 verification plots fail to show good agreement between the model and data. Of these seven, three are relevant to the WIPP repository because they involve the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 aqueous system. The remaining four address salt solubilities at the pH extremes (strong acid and strong base). It should be noted that in two of the three Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system cases, the regressed Harvie et al. (1984) solubility curve also deviated from the data. Lack of agreement between the OLI model-predicted solubility curves and the data is attributable to one or more of the following: specific solid species are not included in the OLI MSE databank; there is significant variation among the different solubility datasets chosen by Harvie et al. (1984); the OLI MSE model’s thermodynamic parameters were determined using different solubility datasets; and the activity coefficient parameters for certain relevant ion-ion and ion-molecule pairs have not been optimized via data regression. Two recommendations for future work are to (1) evaluate solubility data for the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system at high ionic strength and, if necessary, develop a private OLI MSE database that includes missing species and, where necessary, regressed standard state properties and interaction parameters; (2) perform similar verification testing of the OLI model for actinide solubility data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Remaining Useful Strength (RUS) Prediction of SiCf-SiCm Composite Materials Using Deep Learning and Acoustic Emission

Prognosis techniques for prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) are of crucial importance to the management of complex systems for they can lead to appropriate maintenance interventions and improvements in reliability. While various data-driven methods have been introduced to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery systems or batteries, no research has been reported on the remaining useful strength (RUS) prediction of silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiCf-SiCm) materials with pivotal role in its potential usage as a structural material in nuclear reactors and turbine engines. Knowledge of its degradation process is of the utmost importance to the manufacturers. For this purpose, two approaches based on the machine-learning techniques of random-forest (RF) and convolutional neural network (CNN) are proposed to predict the RUS of SiCf-SiCm using only acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during the material’s stress applying process. Experimental results show that the CNN models achieved better predictive performance than the RF models but the latter with expert-engineered features achieves better prediction for AE signals in the early stage of degradation. Additionally, our results demonstrate that both models can correctly predict the SiCf-SiCm RUS as evaluated by our robust testing method from which the best average root mean square error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient of 3.55 ksi units and 0.85 were obtained.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Monitoring of Temperature Measurements for Different Flow Regimes in Water and Galinstan with Long Short-Term Memory Networks and Transfer Learning of Sensors

Temperature sensing is one of the most common measurements of a nuclear reactor monitoring system. The coolant fluid flow in a reactor core depends on the reactor power state. We investigated the monitoring and estimation of the thermocouple time series using machine learning for a range of flow regimes. Measurement data were obtained, in two separate experiments, in a flow loop filled with water and with liquid metal Galinstan. We developed long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for sensor predictions by training on the sensor’s own prior history, and transfer learning LSTM (TL-LSTM) by training on a correlated sensor’s prior history. Sensor cross-correlations were identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient of the time series. The accuracy of LSTM and TL-LSTM predictions of temperature was studied as a function of Reynolds number (Re). The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor was shown to linearly increase with Re for both water and Galinstan fluids. Using linear correlations, we estimated the range of values of Re for which RMSE is smaller than the thermocouple measurement uncertainty. For both water and Galinstan fluids, we showed that both LSTM and TL-LSTM provide reliable estimations of temperature for typical flow regimes in a nuclear reactor. The LSTM runtime was shown to be substantially smaller than the data acquisition rate, which allows for performing estimation and validation of sensor measurements in real time.

Pantopoulou, Stella↗

The Quest for New Correlations in the Realm of the Gamma-Ray Burst—Supernova Connection

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are very energetic cosmological transients. Long GRBs are usually associated with Type Ib/c supernovae (SNe), and we refer to them as GRB-SNe. Since the associated SN for a given GRB is observed only at low redshift, a possible selection effect exists when we consider intrinsically faint sources that cannot be observed at high redshift. Thus, it is important to explore the possible relationships between GRB and SN parameters after these have been corrected for astrophysical biases due to the instrumental selection effects and redshift evolution of the variables involved. So far, only GRB prompt emission properties have been checked against the SN Ib/c properties without considering the afterglow (AG). This work investigates the existence of relationships among GRBs’ prompt and AG and associated SN properties. We investigate 91 bidimensional correlations among the SN and GRB observables before and after their correction for selection biases and evolutionary effects. As a result of this investigation, we find hints of a new correlation with a Pearson correlation coefficient >0.50 and a probability of being drawn by chance <0.05. This correlation is between the luminosity at the end of the GRB optical plateau emission and the rest-frame peak time of the SN. According to this relation, the brightest optical plateaus are accompanied by the largest peak times. This correlation is corrected for selection biases and redshift evolution and may provide new constraints for the astrophysical models associated with the GRB-SN connection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of myosin heavy chain mRNA expression by RT-PCR

An assay was developed for rapid and sensitive analysis of myosin heavy chain (MHC) mRNA expression in rodent skeletal muscle. Only 2 microg of total RNA were necessary for the simultaneous analysis of relative mRNA expression of six different MHC genes. We designed synthetic DNA fragments as internal standards, which contained the relevant primer sequences for the adult MHC mRNAs type I, IIa, IIx, IIb as well as the embryonic and neonatal MHC mRNAs. A known amount of the synthetic fragment was added to each polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and yielded a product of different size than the amplified MHC mRNA fragment. The ratio of amplified MHC fragment to synthetic fragment allowed us to calculate percentages of the gene expression of the different MHC genes in a given muscle sample. Comparison with the traditional Northern blot analysis demonstrated that our reverse transcriptase-PCR-based assay was reliable, fast, and quantitative over a wide range of relative MHC mRNA expression in a spectrum of adult and neonatal rat skeletal muscles. Furthermore, the high sensitivity of the assay made it very useful when only small quantities of tissue were available. Statistical analysis of the signals for each MHC isoform across the analyzed samples showed a highly significant correlation between the PCR and the Northern signals as Pearson correlation coefficients ranged between 0.77 and 0.96 (P < 0.005). This assay has potential use in analyzing small muscle samples such as biopsies and samples from pre- and/or neonatal stages of development.

Non-NASA Center↗

Correlation of Space Shuttle Landing Performance with Post-Flight Cardiovascular Dysfunction

Introduction: Microgravity induces cardiovascular adaptations resulting in orthostatic intolerance on re-exposure to normal gravity. Orthostasis could interfere with performance of complex tasks during the re-entry phase of Shuttle landings. This study correlated measures of Shuttle landing performance with post-flight indicators of orthostatic intolerance. Methods: Relevant Shuttle landing performance parameters routinely recorded at touchdown by NASA included downrange and crossrange distances, airspeed, and vertical speed. Measures of cardiovascular changes were calculated from operational stand tests performed in the immediate post-flight period on mission commanders from STS-41 to STS-66. Stand test data analyzed included maximum standing heart rate, mean increase in maximum heart rate, minimum standing systolic blood pressure, and mean decrease in standing systolic blood pressure. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated with the null hypothesis that there was no statistically significant linear correlation between stand test results and Shuttle landing performance. A correlation coefficient? 0.5 with a p<0.05 was considered significant. Results: There were no significant linear correlations between landing performance and measures of post-flight cardiovascular dysfunction. Discussion: There was no evidence that post-flight cardiovascular stand test data correlated with Shuttle landing performance. This implies that variations in landing performance were not due to space flight-induced orthostatic intolerance.

McCluskey, R.↗

On the Nature of the mHz X-Ray QPOs from ULX M82 X-1: Evidence for Timing-Spectral (anti) Correlation

Using all the archival XMM-Newton X-ray (3-10 keV) observations of the ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) M82 X-1 we searched for a correlation between its variable mHz quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) frequency and its energy spectral power-law index. These quantities are known to correlate in stellar mass black holes (StMBHs) exhibiting Type-C QPOs (approx 0.2-15 Hz). The detection of such a correlation would strengthen the identification of its mHz QPOs as Type-C and enable a more reliable mass estimate by scaling its QPO frequencies to those of Type-C QPOs in StMBHs of known mass. We resolved the count rates of M82 X-1 and a nearby bright ULX (source 5/X42.3+59) through surface brightness modeling and identify observations in which M82 X-1 was at least as bright as source 5. Using only those observations, we detect QPOs in the frequency range of 36-210 mHz during which the energy spectral power-law index varied from 1.7-2.2. Interestingly, we find evidence for an anti-correlation (Pearsons correlation coefficient = -0.95) between the power-law index and the QPO centroid frequency. While such an anti-correlation is observed in StMBHs at high Type-C QPO frequencies (approx 5-15 Hz), the frequency range over which it holds in StMBHs is significantly smaller (factor of approx 1.5-3) than the QPO range reported here from M82 X-1 (factor of 6). However, it remains possible that contamination from source 5 can bias our result. Joint Chandra/XMM-Newton observations in the future can resolve this problem and confirm the timing-spectral anti-correlation reported here.

Pasham, Dheeraj R.↗

Microwave Satellite Data for Hydrologic Modeling in Ungauged Basins

An innovative flood-prediction framework is developed using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation forcing and a proxy for river discharge from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) onboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aqua satellite. The AMSR-E-detected water surface signal was correlated with in situ measurements of streamflow in the Okavango Basin in Southern Africa as indicated by a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90. A distributed hydrologic model, with structural data sets derived from remote-sensing data, was calibrated to yield simulations matching the flood frequencies from the AMSR-E-detected water surface signal. Model performance during a validation period yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.84. We concluded that remote-sensing data from microwave sensors could be used to supplement stream gauges in large sparsely gauged or ungauged basins to calibrate hydrologic models. Given the global availability of all required data sets, this approach can be potentially expanded to improve flood monitoring and prediction in sparsely gauged basins throughout the world

Distributed hydrologic modeling↗

Comparisons of Characteristics of Magnetic Clouds and Cloud-Like Structures During 1995-2012

Using eighteen years (1995 - 2012) of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data (observed by the Wind spacecraft), solar activity (e.g. sunspot number: SSN), and the geomagnetic activity index (Dst), we have identified 168 magnetic clouds (MCs) and 197 magnetic cloud - like structures (MCLs), and we have made relevant comparisons. The following features are found during seven different periods (TP: Total period during 1995 - 2012, P1 and P2: first and second half period during 1995 - 2003 and 2004 - 2012, Q1 and Q2: quiet periods during 1995 - 1997 and 2007 - 2009, A1 and A2: active periods during 1998 - 2006 and 2010 - 2012). (1) During the total period the yearly occurrence frequency is 9.3 for MCs and 10.9 for MCLs. (2) In the quiet periods Q1 > Q1 and Q2 > Q2, but in the active periods A1 < A1 and A2 < A2. (3) The minimum Bz (Bzmin) inside of a MC is well correlated with the intensity of geomagnetic activity, Dstmin (minimum Dst found within a storm event) for MCs (with a Pearson correlation coefficient, c.c. = 0.75, and the fitting function is Dstmin = 0.90+7.78Bzmin), but Bzmin for MCLs is not well correlated with the Dst index (c.c. = 0.56, and the fitting function is Dstmin = -9.40+ 4.58 Bzmin). (4) MCs play a major role in producing geomagnetic storms: the absolute value of the average Dstmin ( MC = -70 nT) for MCs associated geomagnetic storms is two times stronger than that for MCLs ( MCL = -35 nT), due to the difference in the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) strength. (5) The SSN is not correlated with MCs ( TP, c.c. = 0.27), but is well associated with MCLs ( TP, c.c. = 0.85). Note that the c.c. for SSN vs. P2 is higher than that for SSN vs. P2. (6) Averages of IMF, solar wind speed, and density inside of the MCs are higher than those inside of the MCLs. (7) The average of MC duration (approx. = 18.82 hours) is approx. = 20 % longer than the average of MCL duration (approx. = 15.69 hours). (8) There are more MCs than MCLs in the quiet solar period, and more MCLs than MCs in the active solar period, probably due to the interaction between a MC and another significant interplanetary disturbance (including another MC) which could obviously change the character of a MC, but we speculate that some MCLs are no doubt due to other factors such as complex birth conditions at the Sun.

CME↗