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At least 37 records · Page 2

How Climate and Data Quality Impact Photovoltaic Performance Loss Rate Estimations

Different data pipelines and statistical methods are applied to photovoltaic (PV) performance datasets to quantify the performance loss rate (PLR). Since the real values of PLR are unknown, a variety of unvalidated values are reported. As such, the PV industry commonly assumes PLR based on statistically extracted ranges from the literature. However, the accuracy and uncertainty of PLR depend on several parameters including seasonality, local climatic conditions, and the response of a particular PV technology. In addition, the specific data pipeline and statistical method used affect the accuracy and uncertainty. To provide insights, a framework of (≈200 million) synthetic simulations of PV performance datasets using data from different climates is developed. Time series with known PLR and data quality are synthesized, and large parametric studies are conducted to examine the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical approaches over the contiguous US, with an emphasis on the publicly available and “standardized” library, RdTools . In the results, it is confirmed that PLRs from RdTools are unbiased on average, but the accuracy and uncertainty of individual PLR estimates vary with climate zone, data quality, PV technology, and choice of analysis workflow. Best practices and improvement recommendations based on the findings of this study are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A nonrecursive order N preconditioned conjugate gradient: Range space formulation of MDOF dynamics

While excellent progress has been made in deriving algorithms that are efficient for certain combinations of system topologies and concurrent multiprocessing hardware, several issues must be resolved to incorporate transient simulation in the control design process for large space structures. Specifically, strategies must be developed that are applicable to systems with numerous degrees of freedom. In addition, the algorithms must have a growth potential in that they must also be amenable to implementation on forthcoming parallel system architectures. For mechanical system simulation, this fact implies that algorithms are required that induce parallelism on a fine scale, suitable for the emerging class of highly parallel processors; and transient simulation methods must be automatically load balancing for a wider collection of system topologies and hardware configurations. These problems are addressed by employing a combination range space/preconditioned conjugate gradient formulation of multi-degree-of-freedom dynamics. The method described has several advantages. In a sequential computing environment, the method has the features that: by employing regular ordering of the system connectivity graph, an extremely efficient preconditioner can be derived from the 'range space metric', as opposed to the system coefficient matrix; because of the effectiveness of the preconditioner, preliminary studies indicate that the method can achieve performance rates that depend linearly upon the number of substructures, hence the title 'Order N'; and the method is non-assembling. Furthermore, the approach is promising as a potential parallel processing algorithm in that the method exhibits a fine parallel granularity suitable for a wide collection of combinations of physical system topologies/computer architectures; and the method is easily load balanced among processors, and does not rely upon system topology to induce parallelism.

Kurdila, Andrew J.↗

Comparative and Cost Analysis of a Novel Predictive Power Ramp Rate Control Method: A Case Study in a PV Power Plant in Puerto Rico

One of the most important aspects that need to be addressed to increase solar energy penetration is the power ramp-rate control. In weak grids such as the one found in Puerto Rico, it is important to smooth power fluctuations caused by the intermittence of passing clouds. In this work, a novel power ramp-rate control strategy is proposed. Additionally, a comparison with some of the most common power ramp-rate control methods is performed using a proposed model and real solar radiation data from the Coto Laurel photovoltaic power plant located in Ponce, Puerto Rico. The proposed model was validated using one-year real data from Coto Laurel. The power ramp-rate control methods were compared in real-time simulations using the OP5700 from Opal-RT Technologies considering power ramp rate fluctuations, power ramp-rate violations, fluctuations in the state-of-charge, among other indicators. Moreover, the proposed power ramp-rate control strategy, called predictive dynamic smoothing was explained and compared. Results indicate that the predictive dynamic smoothing produced a considerably reduced Levelized Cost of Storage compared to other power ramp-rate control methods and provided a higher lifetime expectancy for lithium batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pitch paper pilot revisited

Two methods are described for predicting the handling qualities of an aircraft in pitch. Both methods are based on minimizing a pilot rating expression with respect to free pilot parameters. In one case the pilot rating expression was developed from a set of moving base simulation data. In the other case, the pilot rating expression was developed from a set of fixed base simulation data. In both cases pilot rating is primarily a function of pitch attitude and pitch rate; however, in the moving base case, the pilot rating is more sensitive to pitch rate than in the fixed base case. For each method, predicted pilot ratings and performance measures agree well with the measured data corresponding to that case. Both methods are used to predict pilot ratings for a set of flight test configurations and the results of the two methods agree to within one half a rating unit. The predicted ratings in both cases correlate well with the actual pilot ratings from the flight tests.

Arnold, J. D.↗

Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis

The accurate quantification of the performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems is critical for project economics. Following the current research activities in the photovoltaic performance and reliability field, this work presents a comparative assessment between common change point methods for performance loss rate estimation of fielded photovoltaic installations. An extensive testing campaign was thus performed to evaluate time series analysis approaches for performance loss rate evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Historical electrical data from eleven photovoltaic systems installed in Nicosia, Cyprus, and the locations’ meteorological measurements over a period of 8 years were used for this investigation. The application of change point detection algorithms on the constructed monthly photovoltaic performance ratio series revealed that the obtained trend might not always be linear. Specifically, thin film photovoltaic systems showed nonlinear behavior, while nonlinearities were also detected for some crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. When applying several change point techniques, different numbers and locations of changes were detected, resulting in different performance loss rate values (varying by up to 0.85%/year even for the same number of change points). The results highlighted the importance of the application of nonlinear techniques and the need to extract a robust nonlinear model for detecting significant changes in time series data and estimating accurately the performance loss rate of photovoltaic installations.

photovoltaics↗

Effect of Initial Water Saturation on The Performance of Fracturing Fluids With and Without Polyallylamine under Simulated EGS Conditions

Objectives/Scope: StimuFrac (US Patents 9,873,828 B2 and 9,447,315 B2), a CO2-reactive polymer aqueous solution [polyallylamine (PAA) 1wt% in water] combined with CO2, can be used as a less water-intensive fracturing fluid for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Our previous results show that in hot dry rock (HDR), PAA/CO2 fracturing fluids outperformed other fluids such as water, CO2, and CO2/water in generating large fractures with less fluid consumed. The objective of this work is to study the effect of initial water saturation of rock on the performance of StimuFrac fluid in ½ foot cubic rock samples and under representative EGS pressure/temperature conditions using cyclic and constant flow rate injection strategies. The fracturing results are compared with results using different fracturing fluids in terms of controlling fracture propagation rates, fracture hydraulic conductivity, breakdown pressures and volumes of fluids required. Methods/Procedures/Process: In all tests, water was initially injected into the rock to increase the water saturation before the fracturing processes to simulate actual geothermal reservoir conditions. For the cyclic injection, one complete cycle consisted of (1) a PAA slug (or water slug) injection followed by (2) CO2 injection to initiate the fracture. In the second step of the first cycle, the pressure of CO2 is increased until a maximum pressure is reached (fracture is initiated at this moment), and then the injection of CO2 is allowed for another 30 seconds to propagate the fracture. Then, the two-step cycle of PAA followed by CO2 injection (up to 2-4 mL/min) was continued. For the constant flow rate injection strategies, the initial water saturation was increased by injecting water at 1000 psi and 200°C for three days. After that, an initial slug of water, CO2, or PAA was injected and then fracturing was initiated and propagated by injecting CO2 at a constant flow rate. Applications/Significance/Novelty: The results of this study suggest that water saturation, especially near the wellbore region, will significantly affect the fracturing fluid transmission into the rock porous media by changing the relative permeability of CO2 or water, thus affecting the fracture initiation and propagation. In this study, fracturing with cyclic injection or constant flow rate injection methods were performed using three different kinds of fluids systems. These fluids are water, CO2, or CO2 with PAA. Splitting the rock samples in half after fracturing reveals that the fracture propagation is significantly limited under these high water saturated conditions compared to dry initial conditions: The fractures propagate less than 1/3 length of the distance from the wellbore to rock surface, and in some cases no fracture is generated. This may be caused by the fact that leak-off is dominating the fracturing process and the injected fluid flow rate is not high enough to overcome the leak-off even under high flow rate injection conditions. Additionally, CO2 could be leaking off into the wellbore annulus and this may be making it more difficult to generate pressure gradients away from the near-wellbore region.

Jian, Guoqing↗

Global and Local Distortion Inference During Embedded Zerotree Wavelet Decompression

This paper presents algorithms for inferring global and spatially local estimates of the squared-error distortion measures for the Embedded Zerotree Wavelet (EZW) image compression algorithm. All distortion estimates are obtained at the decoder without significantly compromising EZW's rate-distortion performance. Two methods are given for propagating distortion estimates from the wavelet domain to the spatial domain, thus giving individual estimates of distortion for each pixel of the decompressed image. These local distortion estimates seem to provide only slight improvement in the statistical characterization of EZW compression error relative to the global measure, unless actual squared errors are propagated. However, they provide qualitative information about the asymptotic nature of the error that may be helpful in wavelet filter selection for low bit rate applications.

Huber, A. Kris↗

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reinforcing cycling stability and rate capability of LiNi0.5Mn1.5O4 cathode by dual-modification of coating and doping of a fast-ion conductor

Highlights: • Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3}-modified LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4} with well-defined octahedral morphology have been controllably obtained. • The combination of the modification of fast ions conductor and solid state method will be an optional method. • The cyclic performance and rate capability of LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4}-based materials have been significantly improved. - Abstract: A simple solid state method was utilized to synthesize excellent spinel Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3}-modified LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4} cathodes. Dual-modification of coating and doping of fast-ion conductor Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3} leads to stable crystal structure and additional three-dimensional (3-D) channels for Li{sup +}-ion diffusion, and protects the electrode surface from electrolyte attack. The Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3}-modified material possesses coexistence of ordered P4{sub 3}32 and disordered Fd-3m phases. As a result of improved structure, morphology and conductivity, the Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3}-modified LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4} shows more superior cyclic performance, rate capability and high temperature stability than the pristine: capacity retention of 95.17% at 0.1 C after 100 cycles vs. that of 79.23%; rate capability of 130–89.1 mAh g{sup −1} at 0.1–10 C vs. that of 120–57.6 mAh g{sup −1}; and high temperature capacity retention of 99.42% at 0.1 C vs. that of 79.59%. Our study provides a facile approach to stabilize crystal structure, optimize morphology and conductivity, and thus enhance electrochemical performance of LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4}-based materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Estimate of Gamma Dose Rates from Arrays of Fermi-1 Blanket Elements During the MEDE Process

The Enrico Fermi Atomic Power Plant Unit 1 (Fermi-1) was a sodium-cooled fast breeder reactor located in Monroe County, Michigan. The reactor was powered by a core of enriched uranium metal alloy driver fuel, which was enveloped by an axial and radial blanket material consisting of depleted uranium metal alloyed with 3 wt.% molybdenum. There are 406 axial and 559 radial irradiated sodium-bonded Fermi-1 blanket assemblies in storage at INL, totaling 34 metric tons of heavy metal. Disposal of the Fermi-1 blanket material directly into a geological repository is prohibited due to the reactive characteristic of its bond sodium. A melt drain evaporate (MEDE) process can effectively remove bond sodium from Fermi-1 blanket material. Consequently, planning is underway to apply a MEDE process to treat the 34 metric tons of heavy metal of irradiated Fermi-1 blanket material. Given the irradiated Fermi-1 blanket material’s relatively low power history and 50+ years of decay, it can be treated in a shielded glovebox. To assess the requisite shielding, the dose rates of the Fermi-1 blanket elements in various process configurations are needed. The method to perform the dose rate calculations is to first generate an average source term and associated photon source spectra for the Fermi-1 blanket material in SCALE and then use the associated photon spectra to calculate dose rates using MCNP6.2 in seven representative geometries. Dose rates in rem/h were calculated on contact (1 cm from outer geometry surface), 30 cm away from outer geometry surface, and 1 m from outer geometry surface at axial heights spanning the length of the blanket material within the geometry. The maximum average dose rate for the single Fermi-1 radial blanket element is ~0.60 rem/h, for the Fermi-1 radial blanket assembly ~1.10 rem/h, for the single Fermi-1 axial blanket element ~0.5 rem/h, for the Fermi-1 axial blanket assembly ~1.01 rem/h, for the MEDE can ~ 0.98 rem/h, for the Fermi Storage Canister ~ 0.83 rem/h, and for the MEDE cans in the DOE Standard Canister ~0.51 rem/h. Based on these maximum average values, the bounding dose rates are assumed to be 3× the average dose rates calculated for the axial blanket material and 7.6× the average dose rates calculated for the radial blanket material, based on the distribution of Fermi-1 blanket material assembly burnup.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Performance criteria guideline for three explosion protection methods of electrical equipment rated up to 15,000 volts AC

The Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior, is reviewing explosion protection methods for use in gassy coal mines. This performance criteria guideline is an evaluation of three explosion protection methods of machines electrically powered with voltages up to 15,000 volts ac. A sufficient amount of basic research has been accomplished to verify that the explosion proof and pressurized enclosure methods can provide adequate explosion protection with the present state of the art up to 15,000 volts ac. This routine application of the potted enclosure as a stand alone protection method requires further investigation or development in order to clarify performance criteria and verification certification requirements. An extensive literature search, a series of high voltage tests, and a design evaluation of the three explosion protection methods indicate that the explosion proof, pressurized, and potted enclosures can all be used to enclose up to 15,000 volts ac.

Linley, L. J.↗

Application of static and dynamic enclosures in determining DMS and OCS fluxes in Sphagnum peatlands

A static enclosure method was applied to determine the exchange of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and OCS between the surface of Sphagnum peatlands and the atmosphere. Measurements were performed concurrently with dynamic enclosure measurements with S-free air used as sweep gas. DMS emission rates determined by both methods were comparable between 5 and 500 nmol/m(sup -2)h(sup -1). The dynamic method provided positive OCS flux rates (emission) for measurements performed at sites containing Sphagnum. Conversely, data from the static method indicated that OCS was consumed from the atmosphere. Measurements using both techniques at a site devoid of vegetation showed that peat is a source of both DMS and OCS. Results suggested that OCS is produced in surface peat but it is taken up from the atmosphere by Sphagnum mosses. However, the net effect of both processes is that OCS uptake exceeds emission. The dynamic enclosure technique is adequate to measure rates of emissions of S gases which are produced in peatlands but not consumed, as long as attention is paid to the rate of sweep flow.

Demello, William Zamboni↗

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis–Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLE confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. As a result, the Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of Changing Weight and Mass on Human Performance in a Lunar Prototype Spacesuit

Physical effort, compensation, and controllability in a spacesuit can be affected by suit mass and gravity level. Because of limitations in certain reduced-gravity simulators and the finite selection of lunar prototype suits, it is difficult to ascertain how a change in suit mass affects suited human performance. One method of simulating a change in mass is to vary the total gravity-adjusted weight (TGAW), which is defined as the sum of the suit mass and subject mass, multiplied by the gravity level. PURPOSE: To determine if two methods of changing TGAW during parabolic flight - changing suit mass or gravity level - affect subjective ratings of suited human performance equally. METHODS: A custom weight support structure was connected to a lunar prototype spacesuit, allowing the addition of mass to the suit while maintaining a near-constant center of mass. In the varied-weight (VW) series, suit mass (120 kg) was constant at 0.1 G, 0.17 G, and 0.3 G, yielding TGAWs of 196, 333, and 588 N, assuming an 80-kg subject. In the varied-mass (VM) series, gravity level was constant at 0.17 G and suit mass was 89, 120, and 181 kg, yielding TGAWs of 282, 333, and 435 N. The 333 N condition was common to both series. Direct comparison was not possible due to limited adjustability of suit mass and limited options for parabolic profiles. Five astronaut subjects (80.3 11.8 kg) completed 4 different tasks (walk, bag pickup, lunge, and shoveling) in all conditions and provided ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) and the gravity compensation and performance scale (GCPS) upon completion of each task. RESULTS: Where VM and VW series overlapped, RPE and GCPS trendlines were similar. Mean RPE and GCPS at 333 N was 8.4 and 3.7. Mean RPE and GCPS for VM was 7.8 and 3.8 for 282 N and 9.8 and 4.1 for 435 N. Extrapolation of the VM trend to match VW TGAWs 196 and 588 N predicts an RPE of 6.5 and 12.3 and GCPS of 4.4 and 5.9, whereas the measured VW values for RPE were 8.1 and 9.8 and GCPS were 4.4 and 3.7. CONCLUSION: Modeling a change in suit mass by altering weight alone may be an adequate simulation through a limited range when looking at gross metrics of subjective suited human performance. Whether altering weight alone will be sufficient for more precise metrics of human performance, and across a wider range of activities, still needs further study.

Norcross, Jason R.↗

Tuning the Electrochemical Performance of Titanium Carbide MXene by Controllable In Situ Anodic Oxidation

Abstract MXenes are a class of two‐dimensional (2D) transition metal carbides, nitrides and carbonitrides that have shown promise for high‐rate pseudocapacitive energy storage. However, the effects that irreversible oxidation have on the surface chemistry and electrochemical properties of MXenes are still not understood. Here we report on a controlled anodic oxidation method which improves the rate performance of titanium carbide MXene (Ti 3 C 2 T x , T x refers to ‐F, =O, ‐Cl and ‐OH) electrodes in acidic electrolytes. The capacitance retention at 2000 mV s −1 (with respect to the lowest scan rate of 5 mV s −1 ) increases gradually from 38 % to 66 % by tuning the degree of anodic oxidation. At the same time, a loss in the redox behavior of Ti 3 C 2 T x is evident at high anodic potentials after oxidation. Several analysis methods are employed to reveal changes in the structure and surface chemistry while simultaneously introducing defects, without compromising electrochemically active sites, are key factors for improving the rate performance of Ti 3 C 2 T x . This study demonstrates improvement of the electrochemical performance of MXene electrodes by performing a controlled anodic oxidation.

Tang, Jun↗

Tuning the Electrochemical Performance of Titanium Carbide MXene by Controllable In Situ Anodic Oxidation

MXenes are a class of two-dimensional (2D) transition metal carbides, nitrides and carbonitrides that have shown promise for high-rate pseudocapacitive energy storage. However, the effects that irreversible oxidation have on the surface chemistry and electrochemical properties of MXenes are still not understood. In this work, we report on a controlled anodic oxidation method which improves the rate performance of titanium carbide MXene (Ti 3 C 2 T x , T x refers to -F, =O, -Cl and -OH) electrodes in acidic electrolytes. The capacitance retention at 2000 mV s -1 (with respect to the lowest scan rate of 5 mV s -1 ) increases gradually from 38% to 66% by tuning the degree of anodic oxidation. At the same time, a loss in the redox behavior of Ti 3 C 2 T x is evident at high anodic potentials after oxidation. Several analysis methods are employed to reveal changes in the structure and surface chemistry while simultaneously introducing defects, without compromising electrochemically active sites, are key factors for improving the rate performance of Ti 3 C 2 T x . This study demonstrates improvement of the electrochemical performance of MXene electrodes by performing a controlled anodic oxidation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reducing Interanalyst Variability in Photovoltaic Degradation Rate Assessments

The economic return on investment of a commercial photovoltaic system depends greatly on its performance over the long term and, hence, its degradation rate. Many methods have been proposed for assessing system degradation rates from outdoor performance data. However, comparing reported values from one analyst and research group to another requires a common baseline of performance; consistency between methods and analysts can be a challenge. An interlaboratory study was conducted involving different volunteer analysts reporting on the same photovoltaic performance data using different methodologies. Initial variability of the reported degradation rates was so high that analysts could not come to a consensus whether a system degraded or not. More consistent values are received when written guidance is provided to each analyst. Further improvements in analyst variance was accomplished by using the free open-source software RdTools, allowing a reduction in variance between analysts by more than two orders of magnitude over the first round, where multiple analysis methods are allowed. This article highlights many pitfalls in conducting 'routine' degradation analysis, and it addresses some of the factors that must be considered when comparing degradation results reported by different analysts or methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗