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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of Initial Water Saturation on The Performance of Fracturing Fluids With and Without Polyallylamine under Simulated EGS Conditions

Objectives/Scope: StimuFrac (US Patents 9,873,828 B2 and 9,447,315 B2), a CO2-reactive polymer aqueous solution [polyallylamine (PAA) 1wt% in water] combined with CO2, can be used as a less water-intensive fracturing fluid for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Our previous results show that in hot dry rock (HDR), PAA/CO2 fracturing fluids outperformed other fluids such as water, CO2, and CO2/water in generating large fractures with less fluid consumed. The objective of this work is to study the effect of initial water saturation of rock on the performance of StimuFrac fluid in ½ foot cubic rock samples and under representative EGS pressure/temperature conditions using cyclic and constant flow rate injection strategies. The fracturing results are compared with results using different fracturing fluids in terms of controlling fracture propagation rates, fracture hydraulic conductivity, breakdown pressures and volumes of fluids required. Methods/Procedures/Process: In all tests, water was initially injected into the rock to increase the water saturation before the fracturing processes to simulate actual geothermal reservoir conditions. For the cyclic injection, one complete cycle consisted of (1) a PAA slug (or water slug) injection followed by (2) CO2 injection to initiate the fracture. In the second step of the first cycle, the pressure of CO2 is increased until a maximum pressure is reached (fracture is initiated at this moment), and then the injection of CO2 is allowed for another 30 seconds to propagate the fracture. Then, the two-step cycle of PAA followed by CO2 injection (up to 2-4 mL/min) was continued. For the constant flow rate injection strategies, the initial water saturation was increased by injecting water at 1000 psi and 200°C for three days. After that, an initial slug of water, CO2, or PAA was injected and then fracturing was initiated and propagated by injecting CO2 at a constant flow rate. Applications/Significance/Novelty: The results of this study suggest that water saturation, especially near the wellbore region, will significantly affect the fracturing fluid transmission into the rock porous media by changing the relative permeability of CO2 or water, thus affecting the fracture initiation and propagation. In this study, fracturing with cyclic injection or constant flow rate injection methods were performed using three different kinds of fluids systems. These fluids are water, CO2, or CO2 with PAA. Splitting the rock samples in half after fracturing reveals that the fracture propagation is significantly limited under these high water saturated conditions compared to dry initial conditions: The fractures propagate less than 1/3 length of the distance from the wellbore to rock surface, and in some cases no fracture is generated. This may be caused by the fact that leak-off is dominating the fracturing process and the injected fluid flow rate is not high enough to overcome the leak-off even under high flow rate injection conditions. Additionally, CO2 could be leaking off into the wellbore annulus and this may be making it more difficult to generate pressure gradients away from the near-wellbore region.

Jian, Guoqing↗
DOE OSTI2021

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reinforcing cycling stability and rate capability of LiNi0.5Mn1.5O4 cathode by dual-modification of coating and doping of a fast-ion conductor

Highlights: • Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3}-modified LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4} with well-defined octahedral morphology have been controllably obtained. • The combination of the modification of fast ions conductor and solid state method will be an optional method. • The cyclic performance and rate capability of LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4}-based materials have been significantly improved. - Abstract: A simple solid state method was utilized to synthesize excellent spinel Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3}-modified LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4} cathodes. Dual-modification of coating and doping of fast-ion conductor Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3} leads to stable crystal structure and additional three-dimensional (3-D) channels for Li{sup +}-ion diffusion, and protects the electrode surface from electrolyte attack. The Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3}-modified material possesses coexistence of ordered P4{sub 3}32 and disordered Fd-3m phases. As a result of improved structure, morphology and conductivity, the Li{sub 2}SiO{sub 3}-modified LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4} shows more superior cyclic performance, rate capability and high temperature stability than the pristine: capacity retention of 95.17% at 0.1 C after 100 cycles vs. that of 79.23%; rate capability of 130–89.1 mAh g{sup −1} at 0.1–10 C vs. that of 120–57.6 mAh g{sup −1}; and high temperature capacity retention of 99.42% at 0.1 C vs. that of 79.59%. Our study provides a facile approach to stabilize crystal structure, optimize morphology and conductivity, and thus enhance electrochemical performance of LiNi{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1.5}O{sub 4}-based materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimate of Gamma Dose Rates from Arrays of Fermi-1 Blanket Elements During the MEDE Process

The Enrico Fermi Atomic Power Plant Unit 1 (Fermi-1) was a sodium-cooled fast breeder reactor located in Monroe County, Michigan. The reactor was powered by a core of enriched uranium metal alloy driver fuel, which was enveloped by an axial and radial blanket material consisting of depleted uranium metal alloyed with 3 wt.% molybdenum. There are 406 axial and 559 radial irradiated sodium-bonded Fermi-1 blanket assemblies in storage at INL, totaling 34 metric tons of heavy metal. Disposal of the Fermi-1 blanket material directly into a geological repository is prohibited due to the reactive characteristic of its bond sodium. A melt drain evaporate (MEDE) process can effectively remove bond sodium from Fermi-1 blanket material. Consequently, planning is underway to apply a MEDE process to treat the 34 metric tons of heavy metal of irradiated Fermi-1 blanket material. Given the irradiated Fermi-1 blanket material’s relatively low power history and 50+ years of decay, it can be treated in a shielded glovebox. To assess the requisite shielding, the dose rates of the Fermi-1 blanket elements in various process configurations are needed. The method to perform the dose rate calculations is to first generate an average source term and associated photon source spectra for the Fermi-1 blanket material in SCALE and then use the associated photon spectra to calculate dose rates using MCNP6.2 in seven representative geometries. Dose rates in rem/h were calculated on contact (1 cm from outer geometry surface), 30 cm away from outer geometry surface, and 1 m from outer geometry surface at axial heights spanning the length of the blanket material within the geometry. The maximum average dose rate for the single Fermi-1 radial blanket element is ~0.60 rem/h, for the Fermi-1 radial blanket assembly ~1.10 rem/h, for the single Fermi-1 axial blanket element ~0.5 rem/h, for the Fermi-1 axial blanket assembly ~1.01 rem/h, for the MEDE can ~ 0.98 rem/h, for the Fermi Storage Canister ~ 0.83 rem/h, and for the MEDE cans in the DOE Standard Canister ~0.51 rem/h. Based on these maximum average values, the bounding dose rates are assumed to be 3× the average dose rates calculated for the axial blanket material and 7.6× the average dose rates calculated for the radial blanket material, based on the distribution of Fermi-1 blanket material assembly burnup.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis–Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLE confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. As a result, the Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Tuning the Electrochemical Performance of Titanium Carbide MXene by Controllable In Situ Anodic Oxidation

Abstract MXenes are a class of two‐dimensional (2D) transition metal carbides, nitrides and carbonitrides that have shown promise for high‐rate pseudocapacitive energy storage. However, the effects that irreversible oxidation have on the surface chemistry and electrochemical properties of MXenes are still not understood. Here we report on a controlled anodic oxidation method which improves the rate performance of titanium carbide MXene (Ti 3 C 2 T x , T x refers to ‐F, =O, ‐Cl and ‐OH) electrodes in acidic electrolytes. The capacitance retention at 2000 mV s −1 (with respect to the lowest scan rate of 5 mV s −1 ) increases gradually from 38 % to 66 % by tuning the degree of anodic oxidation. At the same time, a loss in the redox behavior of Ti 3 C 2 T x is evident at high anodic potentials after oxidation. Several analysis methods are employed to reveal changes in the structure and surface chemistry while simultaneously introducing defects, without compromising electrochemically active sites, are key factors for improving the rate performance of Ti 3 C 2 T x . This study demonstrates improvement of the electrochemical performance of MXene electrodes by performing a controlled anodic oxidation.

Tang, Jun↗
DOE OSTI2019

Tuning the Electrochemical Performance of Titanium Carbide MXene by Controllable In Situ Anodic Oxidation

MXenes are a class of two-dimensional (2D) transition metal carbides, nitrides and carbonitrides that have shown promise for high-rate pseudocapacitive energy storage. However, the effects that irreversible oxidation have on the surface chemistry and electrochemical properties of MXenes are still not understood. In this work, we report on a controlled anodic oxidation method which improves the rate performance of titanium carbide MXene (Ti 3 C 2 T x , T x refers to -F, =O, -Cl and -OH) electrodes in acidic electrolytes. The capacitance retention at 2000 mV s -1 (with respect to the lowest scan rate of 5 mV s -1 ) increases gradually from 38% to 66% by tuning the degree of anodic oxidation. At the same time, a loss in the redox behavior of Ti 3 C 2 T x is evident at high anodic potentials after oxidation. Several analysis methods are employed to reveal changes in the structure and surface chemistry while simultaneously introducing defects, without compromising electrochemically active sites, are key factors for improving the rate performance of Ti 3 C 2 T x . This study demonstrates improvement of the electrochemical performance of MXene electrodes by performing a controlled anodic oxidation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Reducing Interanalyst Variability in Photovoltaic Degradation Rate Assessments

The economic return on investment of a commercial photovoltaic system depends greatly on its performance over the long term and, hence, its degradation rate. Many methods have been proposed for assessing system degradation rates from outdoor performance data. However, comparing reported values from one analyst and research group to another requires a common baseline of performance; consistency between methods and analysts can be a challenge. An interlaboratory study was conducted involving different volunteer analysts reporting on the same photovoltaic performance data using different methodologies. Initial variability of the reported degradation rates was so high that analysts could not come to a consensus whether a system degraded or not. More consistent values are received when written guidance is provided to each analyst. Further improvements in analyst variance was accomplished by using the free open-source software RdTools, allowing a reduction in variance between analysts by more than two orders of magnitude over the first round, where multiple analysis methods are allowed. This article highlights many pitfalls in conducting 'routine' degradation analysis, and it addresses some of the factors that must be considered when comparing degradation results reported by different analysts or methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from A Mass Spectrometry-Based High-Throughput Screening Method for Engineering Fatty Acid Synthases with Improved Production of Medium Chain Fatty Acids

Microbial cell factories have been extensively engineered to produce free fatty acids (FFAs) as key components of crucial nutrients, soaps, industrial chemicals, and fuels. However, our ability to control the composition of microbially synthesized FFAs is still limited, particularly, for producing medium‐chain fatty acids (MCFAs). This is mainly due to the lack of high‐throughput approaches for FFA analysis to engineer enzymes with desirable product specificity. Here we report a mass spectrometry (MS)‐based method for rapid profiling of MCFAs in Saccharomyces cerevisiae by using membrane lipids as a proxy. In particular, matrix‐assisted laser desorption/ionization time‐of‐flight (MALDI‐ToF) MS was used to detect shorter acyl chain phosphatidylcholines from membrane lipids and a higher m/z peak ratio at 730 and 758 was used as an indication for improved MCFA production. This colony‐based method can be performed at a rate of ~2 s per sample, representing a substantial improvement over gas chromatography‐MS (typically >30 min per sample) as the gold standard method for FFA detection. To demonstrate the power of this method, we performed site‐saturation mutagenesis of the yeast fatty acid synthase and identified nine missense mutations that resulted in improved MCFA production relative to the wild‐type strain. Colony‐based MALDI‐ToF MS screening provides an effective approach for engineering microbial fatty acid compositions in a high‐throughput manner.

Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2020

A mass spectrometry-based high-throughput screening method for engineering fatty acid synthases with improved production of medium-chain fatty acids

Microbial cell factories have been extensively engineered to produce free fatty acids (FFAs), key components of crucial nutrients, soaps, industrial chemicals, and fuels. Yet, our ability to control the specificity of microbially synthesized FFAs is still limited for medium-chain fatty acids (MCFAs), which is mainly due to lack of high-throughput approaches for FFA analysis. Here we report a mass spectrometry (MS)-based method for rapid profiling of MCFAs in Saccharomyces cerevisiae by using membrane lipids as a proxy. Specially, matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-ToF) MS was used to detect shorter acyl chain phosphatidylcholines from membrane lipids and the m/z peak ratio at 730 and 758 was used as an index for improved MCFA production. This yeast colony-based method can be performed at a rate of ~2 second per sample, which is much faster than the gold standard gas chromatography (GC)-MS (typically > 30 min per sample). To demonstrate the power of this method, we performed site-saturation mutagenesis of the yeast fatty acid synthase and identified 9 mutants that resulted in improved MCFA production relative to the wild-type strain. This colony-based MALDI-ToF MS screening method offers an alternative way for engineering microbial fatty acid compositions in a high-throughput manner.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detecting Low-level Radiation Sources Using Border Monitoring Gamma Sensors

We consider a problem of detecting a low-level radiation source using a network of Gamma spectral sensors placed on the periphery of a monitored region. We propose a computationally light-weight, correlation-based method which is primarily intended for systems with limited computing capacity. Sensor measurements are combined at the fusion by first generating decisions at each time step and then taking their majority vote within a time widow. At each time step, decisions are generated using two strategies: (i) SUM method based on a threshold decision on a correlation statistic derived from measurements from all sensors, and (ii) OR method based on logical-OR of threshold decisions based on correlations statistics of individual sensor measurements. We derive analytical performance bounds for false alarm rates of SUM and OR methods, and show that their performance is enhanced by the temporal smoothing of majority vote within a time window. Using measurements from a test campaign, we generate a border monitoring scenario with twelve 2"x2" NaI Gamma sensors deployed on the periphery of 42m x 42m outdoor region. A Cs-137 source is moved in a straight-line across this region, starting several meters outside and finally moving away from it. We illustrate the performance of both correlation-based detection methods, and compare their performances with each other and with a particle filter method. Overall, under small false-alarm conditions, the OR fusion is found to produce better detection performance.

Sen, Satyabrata↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved CdTe PLR Estimates: Self-Shading and Spectral Mismatch

The RdTools year-on-year method of estimating performance loss rate (PLR) employs a simple normalization to remove the confounding effect of irradiance and temperature variation. However, the normalization's assumption that PV production scales linearly with in-plane broadband irradiance is a worse approximation for CdTe and other technologies with larger spectral sensitivities than it is for the more common c-Si technology. Additionally, CdTe systems using single-axis trackers (-20% of installed US utility-scale capacity) are subject to self-shading in the morning and afternoon, introducing another nonlinearity between PV output and broadband irradiance. Ignoring these effects may subject the estimated PLR to increased uncertainty, and perhaps bias, depending on the character of their short- and long-term variability. In this work we show that including self-shading and spectral mismatch models in the normalization for tracking CdTe systems can result not only in tighter PLR confidence intervals but different median PLRs as well. The shading and spectral models are kept simple to maintain consistency with the RdTools ethos of not requiring detailed system metadata or unusual measurements.

CdTe↗
DOE OSTI2018

Enhanced rate performance of Li3V2(PO4)3/C cathode by an improved rheological phase assisted microwave method

Highlights: • Rheological phase assisted microwave can utilize both advantages of two methods. • Polyethylene glycol was used as both rheological medium and carbon precursor. • 101.8 mA h g{sup −1} of specific capacity was obtained at 50 C rates. - Abstract: In this study, high-rate Li{sub 3}V{sub 2}(PO{sub 4}){sub 3}/C composite is successfully synthesized via an improved rheological phase assisted microwave method using polyethylene glycol as both rheological medium and carbon precursor. The relatively uniform Li{sub 3}V{sub 2}(PO{sub 4}){sub 3} particles are encapsulated in amorphous carbon architecture to form core-shell structure, providing effective electron and ion transport. When used as a cathode material in lithium ion battery, the Li{sub 3}V{sub 2}(PO{sub 4}){sub 3}/C composite displays a maximum discharge capacity of 101.8 mA h g{sup −1} at 50 C charge/discharge rate and still possesses 98.3% of capacity retention after 100 cycles, demonstrating superior rate capability and excellent cycling stability when compared with bare Li{sub 3}V{sub 2}(PO{sub 4}){sub 3}. The observed electrochemical performance could be attributed to uniform coated-carbon pyrolysis from polyethylene glycol rheological phase precursor and small Li{sub 3}V{sub 2}(PO{sub 4}){sub 3} pristine particles synthesized by the fast microwave heating route.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The EGS Collab Project – Stimulations at Two Depths

The EGS Collab project, supported by the US Department of Energy, is performing intensively monitored rock stimulation and flow tests at the 10-m scale in an underground research laboratory to address challenges in implementing enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Data and observations from the field tests are compared to simulations to understand processes and build confidence in numerical modeling of the processes. We have completed Experiment 1 (of 3), which examined hydraulic fracturing in a well-characterized underground fractured phyllite test bed at a depth of approximately 1.5 km at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota. Testbed characterization included fracture mapping, borehole acoustic and optical televiewers, full waveform sonic, conductivity, resistivity, temperature, campaign p- and s-wave investigations and electrical resistance tomography. Borehole geophysical techniques including passive seismic, continuous active source seismic monitoring, electrical resistance tomography, fiber-based distributed strain, distributed temperature, and distributed acoustic monitoring, were used to carefully monitor stimulation events and flow tests. More than a dozen stimulations and nearly one year of flow tests were performed. Quality data and detailed observations were collected and analyzed during stimulation and water flow tests using ambient temperature and chilled water. We achieved adaptive control of the tests using real-time monitoring and rapid dissemination of data and near-real-time simulation. More detailed numerical simulation was performed to answer key experimental design questions, forecast fracture propagation trajectories and extents, and analyze and evaluate results. Data are freely available from the Geothermal Data Repository. Experiment 2 examines the potential for hydraulic shearing in amphibolite at a depth of about 1.25 km at SURF. This site has a different set of stress and fracture conditions than Experiment 1. The Experiment 2 testbed consists of nine subhorizontal boreholes configured in two fans of two boreholes which surround the testbed and contain grouted-in electrical resistance tomography, seismic sensors, active seismic sources and distributed fiber sensors. A “five-spot” set of test wells that extends from a custom mined alcove includes an injection well and four production/monitoring wells. The testbed was characterized geophysically and hydrologically, and three stimulations have been performed using the Step-Rate Injection Method for Fracture In-Situ Properties (SIMFIP) tool to measure strains, and a new strain quantifying tool (downhole robotic strain analysis tool -DORSA) was deployed in a monitoring hole during stimulation. Real-time data were broadcast during stimulations to allow real-time response to arising issues.

EGS Collab, Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS, fiel↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dry-processed electrodes enabled by polytetrafluoroethylene fibrillation for high-performance lithium-ion batteries

The dry processing technique of polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) fibrillation offers significant advancements in cost reduction, environmental impact, and electrochemical performance. Dry processing alone allows for ∼ 20–60% cost reduction and increases of up to 40 mg cm⁻2 of areal loading – it typically comes at a reduction of rate capability. By leveraging the network structure of fibers, this method enhances rate capability and cycling performance, providing a compelling alternative to the conventional and currently predominant wet processing. The review delves into PTFE fibrillation mechanisms and examines critical influencing factors including material properties and processing parameters. It also discusses challenges associated with the electrodes fabricated by PTFE fibrillation, including structural instability due to insufficient PTFE fibrillization, compromised electrical conductivity from an insufficient conductive network, inhomogeneous dispersion resulting from the absence of solvents, restricted ionic transport due to increased electrode thickness, inadequate adhesion to current collector because of low surface energy of PTFE, electrochemical degradation due to low lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) level of PTFE, particle damage during processing and environmental concerns related PTFE being a perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). Recent research innovations aimed at mitigating these issues, their application in beyond-lithium batteries, and future research directions are thoroughly discussed.

Park, Hyunji↗
DOE OSTI2019

Muon capture in nuclei: An ab initio approach based on Green's function Monte Carlo methods

An ab initio Green's function Monte Carlo (GFMC) method is introduced for calculating total rates of muon weak capture in light nuclei with mass number $A ≤ 12$. As a first application of the method, we perform a calculation of the rate in $^3$$\textbf{H}$ and $^4$$\textbf{He}$ in a dynamical framework based on realistic two- and three-nucleon interactions and realistic nuclear charge-changing weak currents. The currents include one- and two-body terms induced by $π$- and $ρ$-meson exchange, and $N$-to-$Δ$ excitation, and are constrained to reproduce the empirical value of the Gamow-Teller matrix element in tritium. We investigate the sensitivity of theoretical predictions to current parametrizations of the nucleon axial and induced pseudoscalar form factors as well as to two-body contributions in the weak currents. The large uncertainties in the measured $^4$$\textbf{He}$ rates obtained from bubble-chamber experiments (carried out over 50 years ago) prevent us from drawing any definite conclusions. No data exist for $^3$$\textbf{H}$, but results are compared to those of a recent Faddeev calculation as a validation of the present GFMC method.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A systematic comparison of machine learning methods for modeling of dynamic processes applied to combustion emission rate modeling

Ten established, data-driven dynamic algorithms are surveyed and a practical guide for understanding these methods generated. Existing Python programming packages for implementing each algorithm are acknowledged, and the model equations necessary for prediction are presented. A case study on a coal-fired power plant’s NO x emission rates is performed, directly comparing each modeling method’s performance on a mutual system. Each model is evaluated by its root mean squared error (RMSE) on out-of-sample future horizon predictions. Optimal hyperparameters are identified using either an exhaustive search or genetic algorithm. The top five model structures of each method are used to recursively predict future NO x emission rates over a 60-step time horizon. The RMSE at each future timestep is determined, and the recursive output prediction trends compared against measurements in time. The GRU neural network is identified as the best candidate for representing the system, demonstrating accurate and stable predictions across the future horizon by all considered models, while satisfactory performance was observed in several of the ARX/NARX formulations. Finally, these efforts have contributed 1) a concise resource of multiple proven dynamic machine learning methods, 2) a practical guide explaining the use of these methods, effectively lowering the “barrier-to-entry” of deploying such models in control systems, 3) a comparison study evaluating each method’s performance on a mutual system, 4) demonstration of accurate multi-timestep emissions modeling suitable for systems-level control, and 5) generalizable results demonstrating the suitability of each method for prediction over a multi-step future horizon to other complex dynamic systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Muon Capture in Nuclei: an Ab Initio Approach Based on Quantum Monte Carlo Methods

An ab initio quantum Monte Carlo method is introduced for calculating total rates of muon weak capture in light nuclei with mass number $A \leq 12$. As a first application of the method, we perform a calculation of the rate in $^4$He in a dynamical framework based on realistic two- and three-nucleon interactions and realistic nuclear charge-changing weak currents. The currents include one- and two-body terms induced by $\pi$- and $\rho$-meson exchange, and $N$-to-$\Delta$ excitation, and are constrained to reproduce the empirical value of the Gamow-Teller matrix element in tritium. We investigate the sensitivity of theoretical predictions to current parametrizations of the nucleon axial and induced pseudoscalar form factors as well as to two-body contributions in the weak currents. The large uncertainties in the measured values obtained from bubble-chamber experiments (carried out over 50 years ago) prevent us from drawing any definite conclusions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗