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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Horizontal transfer of archaeal genes into the deinococcaceae: detection by molecular and computer-based approaches

Members of the Deinococcaceae (e.g., Thermus, Meiothermus, Deinococcus) contain A/V-ATPases typically found in Archaea or Eukaryotes which were probably acquired by horizontal gene transfer. Two methods were used to quantify the extent to which archaeal or eukaryotic genes have been acquired by this lineage. Screening of a Meiothermus ruber library with probes made against Thermoplasma acidophilum DNA yielded a number of clones which hybridized more strongly than background. One of these contained the prolyl tRNA synthetase (RS) gene. Phylogenetic analysis shows the M. ruber and D. radiodurans prolyl RS to be more closely related to archaeal and eukaryal forms of this gene than to the typical bacterial type. Using a bioinformatics approach, putative open reading frames (ORFs) from the prerelease version of the D. radiodurans genome were screened for genes more closely related to archaeal or eukaryotic genes. Putative ORFs were searched against representative genomes from each of the three domains using automated BLAST. ORFs showing the highest matches against archaeal and eukaryotic genes were collected and ranked. Among the top-ranked hits were the A/V-ATPase catalytic and noncatalytic subunits and the prolyl RS genes. Using phylogenetic methods, ORFs were analyzed and trees assessed for evidence of horizontal gene transfer. Of the 45 genes examined, 20 showed topologies in which D. radiodurans homologues clearly group with eukaryotic or archaeal homologues, and 17 additional trees were found to show probable evidence of horizontal gene transfer. Compared to the total number of ORFs in the genome, those that can be identified as having been acquired from Archaea or Eukaryotes are relatively few (approximately 1%), suggesting that interdomain transfer is rare.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of prophage sequence analysis to investigate a disease outbreak involving Salmonella Adjame, a rare serovar and implications for the population structure

Introduction Outbreak investigation of foodborne salmonellosis is hindered when the food source is contaminated by multiple strains of Salmonella , creating difficulties matching an incriminated organism recovered from patients with the specific strain in the suspect food. An outbreak of the rare Salmonella Adjame was caused by multiple strains of the organism as revealed by single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variation. The use of highly discriminatory prophage analysis to characterize strains of Salmonella should enable a more precise strain characterization and aid the investigation of foodborne salmonellosis. Methods We have carried out genomic analysis of S. Adjame strains recovered during the course of a recent outbreak and compared them with other strains of the organism ( n = 38 strains), using SNPs to evaluate strain differences present in the core genome, and prophage sequence typing (PST) to evaluate the accessory genome. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using both total prophage content and conserved prophages. Results The PST analysis of the S. Adjame isolates showed a high degree of strain heterogeneity. We observed small clusters made up of 2-6 isolates ( n = 27) and singletons ( n = 11) in stark contrast with the three clusters observed by SNP analysis. In total, we detected 24 prophages of which only four were highly prevalent, namely: Entero_p88 (36/38 strains), Salmon_SEN34 (35/38 strains), Burkho_phiE255 (33/38 strains) and Edward_GF (28/38 strains). Despite the marked strain diversity seen with prophage analysis, the distribution of the four most common prophages matched the clustering observed using core genome. Discussion Mutations in the core and accessory genomes of S. Adjame have shed light on the evolutionary relationships among the Adjame strains and demonstrated a convergence of the variations observed in both fractions of the genome. We conclude that core and accessory genomes analyses should be adopted in foodborne bacteria outbreak investigations to provide a more accurate strain description and facilitate reliable matching of isolates from patients and incriminated food sources. The outcomes should translate to a better understanding of the microbial population structure and an 46 improved source attribution in foodborne illnesses.

Gao, Ruimin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Novel and Secure Pseudovirus Reporter System Based Assay for Neutralizing and Enhancing Antibody Assay Against Marburg Virus

Marburg virus (MARV) is one of the principal members of the filovirus family, which can cause fatal hemorrhagic fever in humans. There are currently no prophylactic and therapeutic drugs on the market, and the high pathogenicity and infectivity of MARV make its research highly dependent on biosafety level 4 conditions, severely hindering the development of vaccines and therapies. Therefore, the development of medicines, such as MARV serological diagnosis, vaccines, and therapeutic antibody drugs, urgently needs a safe, convenient, and biosafety level 2 detection method to measure the neutralizing activity of MARV antibodies. To this end, we report a neutralization assay relying on a Rabies virus (RABV) reverse genetic operating system. We constructed infectious clones carrying the eGFP reporter gene and the full length of the original unmodified MARV GP gene. Based on the critical parameters of phylogenetic analysis, recombinant viruses targeting representative strains in the two major MARV lineages were successfully rescued. These pseudoviruses are safe in mice, and their inability to infect cells after being neutralized by antibodies can be visualized under a fluorescence microscope. We tested the system using the neutralizing antibody MR191. MR191 can significantly block the infection of BSR cells with pseudovirus. We compared it with the traditional lentivirus-type pseudovirus system to verify the system’s credibility and obtained the same results as reported in the literature. In general, we have established a safe and visualized method for evaluating the neutralizing activity of MARV antibodies. Compared with traditional methods, it has the advantages of convenient operation, short cycle, and low cost. It is a candidate method that can replace actual viruses for a neutralization assay.

Bi, Jinhao↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating rates and patterns of diversification with incomplete sampling: a case study in the rosids

Premise Recent advances in generating large‐scale phylogenies enable broad‐scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results. Methods We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well‐sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR). Results We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa. Conclusions We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

OrthoPhyl—streamlining large-scale, orthology-based phylogenomic studies of bacteria at broad evolutionary scales

Abstract There are a staggering number of publicly available bacterial genome sequences (at writing, 2.0 million assemblies in NCBI's GenBank alone), and the deposition rate continues to increase. This wealth of data begs for phylogenetic analyses to place these sequences within an evolutionary context. A phylogenetic placement not only aids in taxonomic classification but informs the evolution of novel phenotypes, targets of selection, and horizontal gene transfer. Building trees from multi-gene codon alignments is a laborious task that requires bioinformatic expertise, rigorous curation of orthologs, and heavy computation. Compounding the problem is the lack of tools that can streamline these processes for building trees from large-scale genomic data. Here we present OrthoPhyl, which takes bacterial genome assemblies and reconstructs trees from whole genome codon alignments. The analysis pipeline can analyze an arbitrarily large number of input genomes (>1200 tested here) by identifying a diversity-spanning subset of assemblies and using these genomes to build gene models to infer orthologs in the full dataset. To illustrate the versatility of OrthoPhyl, we show three use cases: E. coli/Shigella, Brucella/Ochrobactrum and the order Rickettsiales. We compare trees generated with OrthoPhyl to trees generated with kSNP3 and GToTree along with published trees using alternative methods. We show that OrthoPhyl trees are consistent with other methods while incorporating more data, allowing for greater numbers of input genomes, and more flexibility of analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detecting macroevolutionary genotype–phenotype associations using error-corrected rates of protein convergence

On macroevolutionary timescales, extensive mutations and phylogenetic uncertainty mask the signals of genotype–phenotype associations underlying convergent evolution. To overcome this problem, we extended the widely used framework of non-synonymous to synonymous substitution rate ratios and developed the novel metric ω C , which measures the error-corrected convergence rate of protein evolution. While ω C distinguishes natural selection from genetic noise and phylogenetic errors in simulation and real examples, its accuracy allows an exploratory genome-wide search of adaptive molecular convergence without phenotypic hypothesis or candidate genes. Using gene expression data, we explored over 20 million branch combinations in vertebrate genes and identified the joint convergence of expression patterns and protein sequences with amino acid substitutions in functionally important sites, providing hypotheses on undiscovered phenotypes. We further extended our method with a heuristic algorithm to detect highly repetitive convergence among computationally non-trivial higher-order phylogenetic combinations. Our approach allows bidirectional searches for genotype–phenotype associations, even in lineages that diverged for hundreds of millions of years.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

An improved dataset for predicting mammal infecting viruses from genetic sequence information

There have been several attempts to develop machine learning (ML) models to identify human infecting viruses from their genomic sequences, with varying degrees of success. Direct comparison between models is problematic, because these models are typically trained and evaluated on different datasets with alternative data splitting schemes, features, and model performance metrics. In this paper we present a standardized dataset of mammal infecting and non-infecting viral pathogens, refined from the previous work of Mollentze et al. to include the latest literature evidence, roughly doubling the number of curated host-virus records available to the community, and new host target labels, primate and mammal. The new host labels were included for several reasons, including previous reports that classification performance is better at broader taxonomic ranks and the idea that there may be more data for primate infection that might serve as a suitable proxy for zoonotic potential and avoidance of false positives for human infection due to absence of evidence. On this dataset, we report the performance of eight machine learning models for predicting mammal-infecting viruses from their genomic sequences. We find that randomly assigning cases in our improved dataset to training/testing sets, when compared to the original assignments into training/testing in Mollentze et al., increases the overall average ROC AUC of prediction of human infection from 0.663 ± 0.070 to 0.784 ± 0.013, consistent with the reduction in phylogenetic distance between train and test sets (relative entropy change from 3.00 to 0.08). The broadest host category of mammal infection can be predicted most reliably at 0.850 ± 0.020. We share our improved dataset and code to enable standardized comparisons of machine learning methods to predict human host infections. Overall, we have presented preliminary evidence that classification of virus host infection is more tractable at higher taxonomic ranks, that unsurprisingly reducing the phylogenetic distance between training and test sets can improve predictive performance, that peptide kmer features appear to be harmful to out of sample model performance, and we are left with the question of whether models for virus host prediction can reasonably be expected to perform well in out of sample scenarios given the likelihood that viruses do not share a common ancestor. Consistent with this concern, when the data is resampled such that there is no overlap between viral families in training and test sets (relative entropy > 24), models perform no better than random chance at prediction of human infection regardless of whether kmers are included (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.08) or not (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.04).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

The rRNA evolution and procaryotic phylogeny

Studies of ribosomal RNA primary structure allow reconstruction of phylogenetic trees for prokaryotic organisms. Such studies reveal major dichotomy among the bacteria that separates them into eubacteria and archaebacteria. Both groupings are further segmented into several major divisions. The results obtained from 5S rRNA sequences are essentially the same as those obtained with the 16S rRNA data. In the case of Gram negative bacteria the ribosomal RNA sequencing results can also be directly compared with hybridization studies and cytochrome c sequencing studies. There is again excellent agreement among the several methods. It seems likely then that the overall picture of microbial phylogeny that is emerging from the RNA sequence studies is a good approximation of the true history of these organisms. The RNA data allow examination of the evolutionary process in a semi-quantitative way. The secondary structures of these RNAs are largely established. As a result it is possible to recognize examples of local structural evolution. Evolutionary pathways accounting for these events can be proposed and their probability can be assessed.

Fox, G. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Description of Pegethrix niliensis sp. nov., a Novel Cyanobacterium from the Nile River Basin, Egypt: A Polyphasic Analysis and Comparative Study of Related Genera in the Oculatellales Order

In this paper, we examine the filamentous cyanobacterial strain NILCB16 and describe it as a new species within the genus Pegethrix. The original population was sampled from a mat growing in an irrigation canal in the Nile River, Egypt. Initially classified under Plectonema or Planktolyngbya, the strain is a potential producer of the toxins microcystin and β-N-Methylamino-L-Alanine (BMAA). Additionally, we reviewed the taxonomic relationships between the Oculatellales genera. To describe the new species, we conducted a polyphasic study, encompassing 16S rRNA gene phylogenetic analyses performed using both Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian methods, sequence identity (p-distance) analysis, 16S-23S ITS secondary structures, and morphological and habitat comparisons. The phylogenetic analysis revealed that strain NILCB16 clustered within the Pegethrix clade with strong phylogenetic support, but in a distinct position from other species in the genus. The strain shared a maximum 16S rRNA gene identity of 97.3% with P. qiandaoensis and 96.1% with the type species, P. bostrychoides. Morphologically, NILCB16 can be differentiated from other species in the genus by its lack of false branching. Our phylogenetic analyses also show that Pegethrix, Cartusia, Elainella, and Maricoleus are clustered with strong phylogenetic support. They exhibit high 16S rRNA gene identity and are morphologically indistinguishable, suggesting they could potentially be merged into a single genus in the future.

Hentschke, Guilherme Scotta (ORCID:000000034396024↗
DOE OSTI2021

HUNTRESS: a fast heuristic for reconstructing phylogenetic trees of tumor evolution (HUNTRESS) v0.1

We introduce HUNTRESS (Histogrammed UNion Tree REconStruction heuriStic), a computational method for tumor phylogeny reconstruction from noisy genotype matrices derived from single-cell sequencing data, whose running time is linear with the number of cells and quadratic with the number of mutations. Provided that the input genotype matrix includes no false positives, each cellular subpopulation is at least a user defined fraction of the total number of cells, and the number of cells are much bigger than the number of mutations considered, HUNTRESS computes the ground truth tumor phylogeny with high probability. On simulated data HUNTRESS is faster than available alternatives with comparable or better accuracy. Additionally, the phylogenies reconstructed by HUNTRESS on two single-cell sequencing data sets agree with the best known evolutionary scenarios for the associated tumors.

Buluc, Aydin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs

When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described methods: a tree-based logical transmission interval, a simple parsimony-like rules-based method, and a more complex coalescent model. Across simulations with multiple transmitted lineages, different transmission times relative to the source’s infection, and different sampling times relative to transmission, we found that overall our time-slice model provided accurate and narrower estimates of the time of transmission. We also identified situations when transmission time or direction was difficult to estimate by any method, particularly when transmission occurred long after the source was infected and when sampling occurred long after transmission. Applying our model to real HIV transmission pairs showed some agreement with facts known from the case investigations. We also found, however, that uncertainty on the inferred transmission time was driven more by uncertainty from time calibration of the phylogeny than from the model inference itself. Encouragingly, comparable performance of the Markov time-slice model and the coalescent model—which make use of different information within a tree—suggests that a new method remains to be described that will make full use of the topology and node times for improved transmission time inference.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative phylogenetics of repetitive elements in a diverse order of flowering plants (Brassicales)

Genome sizes of plants have long piqued the interest of researchers due to the vast differences among organisms. However, the mechanisms that drive size differences have yet to be fully understood. Two important contributing factors to genome size are expansions of repetitive elements, such as transposable elements (TEs), and whole-genome duplications (WGD). Although studies have found correlations between genome size and both TE abundance and polyploidy, these studies typically test for these patterns within a genus or species. The plant order Brassicales provides an excellent system to further test if genome size evolution patterns are consistent across larger time scales, as there are numerous WGDs. This order is also home to one of the smallest plant genomes, Arabidopsis thaliana—chosen as the model plant system for this reason—as well as to species with very large genomes. With new methods that allow for TE characterization from low-coverage genome shotgun data and 71 taxa across the Brassicales, we confirm the correlation between genome size and TE content, however, we are unable to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships and do not detect any shift in TE abundance associated with WGD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating the Timing of Early Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections: a Comparison between Poisson Fitter and BEAST

Many HIV prevention strategies are currently under consideration where it is highly informative to know the study participants’ times of infection. These can be estimated using viral sequence data sampled early in infection. However, there are several scenarios that, if not addressed, can skew timing estimates. These include multiple transmitted/founder (TF) viruses, APOBEC (apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like)-mediated mutational enrichment, and recombination. Here, we suggest a pipeline to identify these problems and resolve the biases that they introduce. We then compare two modeling strategies to obtain timing estimates from sequence data. The first, Poisson Fitter (PF), is based on a Poisson model of random accumulation of mutations relative to the TF virus (or viruses) that established the infection. The second uses a coalescence-based phylogenetic strategy as implemented in BEAST. The comparison is based on timing predictions using plasma viral RNA (cDNA) sequence data from 28 simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV)-infected animals for which the exact day of infection is known. In this particular setting, based on nucleotide sequences from samples obtained in early infection, the Poisson method yielded more accurate, more precise, and unbiased estimates for the time of infection than did the explored implementations of BEAST. The inference of the time of infection is a critical parameter in testing the efficacy of clinical interventions in protecting against HIV-1 infection. For example, in clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of passively delivered antibodies (Abs) for preventing infections, accurate time of infection data are essential for discerning levels of the Abs required to confer protection, given the natural Ab decay rate in the human body. In such trials, genetic sequences from early in the infection are regularly sampled from study participants, generally prior to immune selection, when the viral population is still expanding and genetic diversity is low. In this particular setting of early viral growth, the Poisson method is superior to the alternative approach based on coalescent methods. This approach can also be applied in human vaccine trials, where accurate estimates of infection times help ascertain if vaccine-elicited immune protection wanes over time.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Phylogenetic structure of specialization: A new approach that integrates partner availability and phylogenetic diversity to quantify biotic specialization in ecological networks

Abstract Biotic specialization holds information about the assembly, evolution, and stability of biological communities. Partner availabilities can play an important role in enabling species interactions, where uneven partner availabilities can bias estimates of biotic specialization when using phylogenetic diversity indices. It is therefore important to account for partner availability when characterizing biotic specialization using phylogenies. We developed an index, phylogenetic structure of specialization (PSS), that avoids bias from uneven partner availabilities by uncoupling the null models for interaction frequency and phylogenetic distance. We incorporate the deviation between observed and random interaction frequencies as weights into the calculation of partner phylogenetic α‐diversity. To calculate the PSS index, we then compare observed partner phylogenetic α‐diversity to a null distribution generated by randomizing phylogenetic distances among the same number of partners. PSS quantifies the phylogenetic structure (i.e., clustered, overdispersed, or random) of the partners of a focal species. We show with simulations that the PSS index is not correlated with network properties, which allows comparisons across multiple systems. We also implemented PSS on empirical networks of host–parasite, avian seed‐dispersal, lichenized fungi–cyanobacteria, and hummingbird pollination interactions. Across these systems, a large proportion of taxa interact with phylogenetically random partners according to PSS, sometimes to a larger extent than detected with an existing method that does not account for partner availability. We also found that many taxa interact with phylogenetically clustered partners, while taxa with overdispersed partners were rare. We argue that species with phylogenetically overdispersed partners have often been misinterpreted as generalists when they should be considered specialists. Our results highlight the important role of randomness in shaping interaction networks, even in highly intimate symbioses, and provide a much‐needed quantitative framework to assess the role that evolutionary history and symbiotic specialization play in shaping patterns of biodiversity. PSS is available as an R package at https://github.com/cjpardodelahoz/pss .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Addressing the pervasive scarcity of structural annotation in eukaryotic algae

Abstract Despite a continuous increase in algal genome sequencing, structural annotations of most algal genome assemblies remain unavailable. This pervasive scarcity of genome annotation has restricted rigorous investigation of these genomic resources and may have precipitated misleading biological interpretations. However, the annotation process for eukaryotic algal species is often challenging as genomic resources and transcriptomic evidence are not always available. To address this challenge, we benchmark the cutting-edge gene prediction methods that can be generalized for a broad range of non-model eukaryotes. Using the most accurate methods selected based on high-quality algal genomes, we predict structural annotations for 135 unannotated algal genomes. Using previously available genomic data pooled together with new data obtained in this study, we identified the core orthologous genes and the multi-gene phylogeny of eukaryotic algae, including of previously unexplored algal species. This study not only provides a benchmark for the use of structural annotation methods on a variety of non-model eukaryotes, but also compensates for missing data in the current spectrum of algal genomic resources. These results bring us one step closer to the full potential of eukaryotic algal genomics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recombination smooths the time-signal disrupted by latency in within-host HIV phylogenies

Within-host HIV evolution involves several features that may disrupt standard phylogenetic reconstruction. One important feature is re-activation of latently integrated provirus, which has the potential to disrupt the temporal signal, leading to variation in the branch lengths and apparent evolutionary rates in a tree. Yet, real within-host HIV phylogenies tend to show clear, ladder-like trees structured by the time of sampling. Another important feature is recombination, which violates the fundamental assumption that evolutionary history can be represented by a single bifurcating tree. Thus, recombination complicates the within-host HIV dynamic by mixing genomes and creating evolutionary loop structures that cannot be represented in bifurcating trees. In this paper, we develop a coalescent-based simulator of within-host HIV evolution that includes latency, recombination, and effective population size dynamics that allows us to study the relationship between the true, complex genealogy of within-host HIV evolution, encoded as an Ancestral Recombination Graph (ARG), and the observed phylogenetic tree. To compare our ARG results to the familiar phylogeny format, we calculate the expected bifurcating tree after decomposing the ARG into all unique site trees, their combined distance matrix, and the overall corresponding bifurcating tree. While latency and recombination separately disrupt the phylogenetic signal, remarkably, we find that recombination recovers the temporal signal of within-host HIV evolution caused by latency by mixing fragments of old, latent genomes into the contemporary population. In effect, recombination averages over extant heterogeneity, whether it stems from mixed time-signals or population bottlenecks. Further, we establish that the signals of latency and recombination can be observed in phylogenetic trees despite being an incorrect representation of the true evolutionary history. Using an Approximate Bayesian Computation method, we develop a set of statistical probes to tune our simulation model to nine longitudinally-sampled within-host HIV phylogenies. Because ARGs are exceedingly difficult to infer from real HIV data, our simulation system allows investigating effects of latency, recombination, and population size bottlenecks by matching decomposed ARGs to real data as observed in standard phylogenies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗