Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Physical Solar Model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Asteroseismic modelling of solar-type stars: a deeper look at the treatment of initial helium abundance

ABSTRACT Detailed understanding of stellar physics is essential towards a robust determination of stellar properties (e.g. radius, mass, and age). Among the vital input physics used in the modelling of solar-type stars which remain poorly constrained, is the initial helium abundance. To this end, when constructing stellar model grids, the initial helium abundance is estimated either (i) by using the semi-empirical helium-to-heavy element enrichment ratio, (ΔY/ΔZ), anchored to the standard big bang nucleosynthesis value, or (ii) by setting the initial helium abundance as a free variable. Adopting 35 low-mass, solar-type stars with multiyear Kepler photometry from the asteroseismic ‘LEGACY’ sample, we explore the systematic uncertainties on the inferred stellar parameters (i.e. radius, mass, and age) arising from the treatment of the initial helium abundance in stellar model grids. The stellar masses and radii derived from grids with free initial helium abundance are lower compared to those from grids based on a fixed ΔY/ΔZ ratio. We find the systematic uncertainties on mean density, radius, mass, and age arising from grids which employ a fixed value of ΔY/ΔZ and those with free initial helium abundance to be ∼ 0.9 per cent, ∼ 2 per cent, ∼ 5 per cent, and ∼ 29 per cent, respectively. We report that the systematic uncertainties on the inferred masses and radii arising from the treatment of initial helium abundance in stellar grids lie within the expected accuracy limits of ESA’s PLATO, although this is not the case for the age.

Nsamba, Benard↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solar Modeling and Opacities

In 2004, improved analyses of solar spectra resulted in a downward revision of the abundances of elements heavier than hydrogen and helium, in particular, the elements C, N, and O. Solar models evolved using these lower abundances showed discrepancies with inferences from solar oscillation observations (helioseismology). This problem has not been solved satisfactorily in the intervening 16 years. How serious/important is this problem? This talk will give an overview of how standard solar models are calculated and of the constraints from helioseismology. The talk will also present results of some attempts to change input physics or assumptions in the standard solar model, including opacity modifications, to try to resolve the discrepancies. I would like to have a discussion with the participants after the talk about which directions appear most promising to resolve the problem.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

New oscillation and scattering constraints on the tau row matrix elements without assuming unitarity

The tau neutrino is the least well measured particle in the Standard Model. Most notably, the tau neutrino row of the lepton mixing matrix is quite poorly constrained when unitarity is not assumed. In this paper, we identify data sets involving tau neutrinos that improve our understanding of the tau neutrino part of the mixing matrix, in particular ν ${\tau}$ appearance in atmospheric neutrinos. We present new results on the elements of the tau row leveraging existing constraints on the electron and muon rows for the cases of unitarity violation, with and without kinematically accessible steriles. We also show the expected sensitivity due to upcoming experiments and demonstrate that the tau neutrino row precision may be comparable to the muon neutrino row in a careful combined fit.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A global analysis strategy to resolve neutrino NSI degeneracies with scattering and oscillation data

Neutrino non-standard interactions (NSI) with the first generation of standard model fermions can span a parameter space of large dimension and exhibit degeneracies that cannot be broken by a single class of experiment. Oscillation experiments, together with neutrino scattering experiments, can merge their observations into a highly informational dataset to combat this problem. We consider combining neutrino-electron and neutrino-nucleus scattering data from the Borexino and COHERENT experiments, including a projection for the upcoming coherent neutrino scattering measurement at the CENNS-10 liquid argon detector. We extend the reach of these data sets over the NSI parameter space with projections for neutrino scattering at a future multi-ton scale dark matter detector and future oscillation measurements from atmospheric neutrinos at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). In order to perform this global anal- ysis, we adopt a novel approach using the copula method, utilized to combine posterior information from different experiments with a large, generalized set of NSI parameters. We find that the contributions from DUNE and a dark matter detector to the Borexino and COHERENT fits can improve constraints on the electron and quark NSI parameters by up to a factor of 2 to 3, even when relatively many NSI parameters are left free to vary in the analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

FY2024 Q4 L2 Milestone 8237 for Opacity-on-NIF

This document addresses parts 2 and 3 of the original milestone request. In the following writeup, the development of OpSpecTR at LLNL by LLNL and NNSS personnel will be detailed first, followed by a write-up of the development of Vme-resolved simulaVons of the opacity-on-NIF experiment. Capsule backlight simulaVons, hohlraum simulaVons, and sample simulaVons from CASSIO are combined to produce the line of sight from the capsule to an effecVve OpSpec posiVon. Spectra are generated by post-processing these simulaVons from either Spect3D, a commercial software by Prism ComputaVonal Sciences, or FESTR (Finite Element Spectroscopic Transport of RadiaVon), a LANL code. While the simulaVons do not at this stage proceed late enough to include the worst of the backgrounds generated from the hohlraum experimentally and each post-processing simulaVon includes only one ray for each spectrometer channel, these efforts represent proof of concept for a new capability to complete Vme-resolved and Vmegated simulaVons for the complete line of sight of the complex opacity-on-NIF geometry. Future work will be discussed at the end of the report for both efforts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

IMoFi - Intelligent Model Fidelity: Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

IMoFi (Intelligent Model Fidelity): Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration Updated Accomplishments

This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), including some updates from the previous report SAND2022-0215, to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring AI/ML-based Real-time Anomaly Detection in DUNE for Supernova Burst Neutrinos

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is currently under construction with far detectors consisting of 4 liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) modules at SURF (South Dakota Underground Research Facility) and a near detector complex with neutrino beam production at Fermilab to unambiguously determine neutrino mass ordering, to discover and precisely measure Charge-Parity (CP) violation phase in leptonic sector, to search for Beyond Stand Model (BSM) physics, and to study solar and supernova burst neutrinos. Anomalies in this project are classified in three categories: new physics signals, supernova burst neutrinos, and detector malfunction. We report here on promising early studies toward an Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning-based real-time anomaly detection system, using a prototype autoencoder model currently under development. Additionally, the current status of an improved model and its performance will be presented. The model will be evaluated not only for its sensitivity to supernova neutrinos, but also to BSM physics signals and detector malfunctions. We will also consider how such a real-time algorithm might be used in DUNE.

de Jonge, Anselm [Kirchhoff Inst. Phys.] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the electrochemical behavior and interfacial junction profiles of bipolar membranes at solar flux relevant operating current densities

A 1-dimensional, multi-physics model that accounts for the migration and diffusion of solution species, electrostatics, and chemical reactions, in particular water dissociation (WD), at bipolar membrane (BPM) interfaces was developed to study the electrochemical behavior of bipolar membranes (BPMs) at solar flux relevant operating current densities (tens of mA cm -2 ). Significant partial current densities for WD were observed at BPM voltages much less than the equilibrium voltage, e.g., 59 mV × ΔpH from both experiments and modeling. The co-ion leakage across the BPM at pH differentials accounted for the early presence of the partial current density for WD. Two distinctive electric field dependent WD pathways, the un-catalyzed pathway and the catalyzed pathway, were quantitatively and parametrically studied to improve the turn-on potential of the BPM. The catalyzed pathway accounted for the majority of the partial current density for WD at low voltages, while the un-catalyzed pathway dominated the WD at relatively high voltages. Significant WD was observed only within the interfacial CL (<5 nm), in which a large electric field was present. To improve the electrochemical behavior and the turn-on potential of BPMs, the impacts of the pKa of the immobilized WD catalysts, the electric-field dependent rate constant, the thickness of the catalyst layer and fixed charge density in BPMs on the partial current densities for WD were studied systematically. In addition, the electrochemical behavior and concentration profiles of BPMs in a buffered electrolyte were studied and contrasted with those in an un-buffered electrolyte from both modeling and experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ageing Studies of Mega Battery Packs for Grid Storage Applications Using Physics Based Modeling

The lower Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) from wind and solar photovoltaics has enabled for greater integration of variable energy resources with energy storage tech-nologies such as larger centralized lithium-ion battery megapacks (with 1MWh total energy and 500V rating) to provide utility-scale services to grid operators. The daily cycling of standalone lithium-ion grid storage will reduce the battery cells' capacity due to several degradation mechanisms. A comprehensive physics-based Python tm framework called Liionpack was developed to estimate these megapacks' remaining life and ageing. The study includes various degradation mechanisms coupled to the electrochemical-thermal model at the pack level. The effect of the inhomogeneities from cell-to-cell thermodynamic and kinetic properties for different working conditions including temperature and charge/discharge protocols on the ageing of a megapack are presented here.

Karra, Vikrant↗
DOE OSTI2019

Solar-Forecast GridAPPS-D Application [SWR-18-36]

Persistent model serves as the baseline in the intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation due to the extensive computing efforts from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and the lack of surface observations in cloud as well as other atmospheric properties. The smart persistent model actively updates the extraterrestrial solar radiation with time and is an important improvement from the persistent model while the cloud conditions are assumed unchanged by giving constant clear-sky indexes. We developed a Physics-based Smart Persistent model for Intra-hour solar forecasting (PSPI) to further improve the accuracy of the smart persistent model. We used a cloud retrieval technique developed by Xie and Liu (2013) to estimate cloudy fraction and cloud albedo using surface-based observations of solar radiation. The solar radiation in future time steps is accurately given by actively computing individual cloud albedo related to the future solar position. Our evaluation studies indicated that the PSPI model significantly increased the accuracy in the short-term forecast of solar radiation, especially in thin cloud conditions or those covered by broken clouds.

Xie, Yu↗