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The Final Merger of Black-Hole Binaries

Recent breakthroughs in the field of numerical relativity have led to dramatic progress in understanding the predictions of General Relativity for the dynamical interactions of two black holes in the regime of very strong gravitational fields. Such black-hole binaries are important astrophysical systems and are a key target of current and developing gravitational-wave detectors. The waveform signature of strong gravitational radiation emitted as the black holes fall together and merge provides a clear observable record of the process. After decades of slow progress / these mergers and the gravitational-wave signals they generate can now be routinely calculated using the methods of numerical relativity. We review recent advances in understanding the predicted physics of events and the consequent radiation, and discuss some of the impacts this new knowledge is having in various areas of astrophysics

Kelly, Bernard J.↗

Interseismic deformation for normal fault earthquakes

Comparison between the coseismic vertical deformation associated with normal fault earthquakes and permanent deformation indicated by geologic structure indicates that large deformation must occur during the period between earthquakes. When sufficient geodetic and geologic information is available it is possible to estimate the spatial character of this interseismic deformation. A case in point is the 1983 Borah Peak, Idaho earthquake. This normal fault earthquake produced roughly 5 times as much basin subsidence as it did uplift of the adjacent mountain ranges. In contrast, geophysical and geological observations show that the basin is roughly as deep as the bounding range is high. A similar normal fault event in the Basin and Range, the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake, was also accompanied by substantially larger subsidence than uplift. In this case, postseismic geodetic measurements show broad regional uplift with a spatial pattern which is roughly consistent with that proposed for the Borah Peak event. Modeling suggests that postseismic viscoelastic relaxation and strain accumulation in an elastic lithosphere overlying a viscoelastic asthenosphere are possible physical mechanisms to generate interseismic uplift. These mechanisms may be the contemporary expression of those processes responsible for the high elevation of the Basin and Range Province.

Reilinger, Robert↗

Community Coordinated Modeling Center Support of Science Needs for Integrated Data Environment

Space science models are essential component of integrated data environment. Space science models are indispensable tools to facilitate effective use of wide variety of distributed scientific sources and to place multi-point local measurements into global context. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts a set of state-of-the- art space science models ranging from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The majority of models residing at CCMC are comprehensive computationally intensive physics-based models. To allow the models to be driven by data relevant to particular events, the CCMC developed an online data file generation tool that automatically downloads data from data providers and transforms them to required format. CCMC provides a tailored web-based visualization interface for the model output, as well as the capability to download simulations output in portable standard format with comprehensive metadata and user-friendly model output analysis library of routines that can be called from any C supporting language. CCMC is developing data interpolation tools that enable to present model output in the same format as observations. CCMC invite community comments and suggestions to better address science needs for the integrated data environment.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

Particle physics in the very early universe

Events in the very early big bang universe in which elementary particle physics effects may have been dominant are discussed, with attention to the generation of a net baryon number by way of grand unification theory, and emphasis on the possible role of massive neutrinos in increasing current understanding of various cosmological properties and of the constraints placed on neutrino properties by cosmology. It is noted that when grand unification theories are used to describe very early universe interactions, an initially baryon-symmetrical universe can evolve a net baryon excess of 10 to the -9th to 10 to the -11th per photon, given reasonable parameters. If neutrinos have mass, the bulk of the mass of the universe may be in the form of leptons, implying that the form of matter most familiar to physical science may not be the dominant form of matter in the universe.

Schramm, D. N.↗

On the Integration of Loudness Over Time for the Prediction of Single-Event Annoyance

Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.

Psychoacoustics↗

On the Integration of Loudness Over Time for the Prediction of Single-Event Annoyance

Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.

Psychoacoustics↗

Computing in the presence of soft bit errors

It is shown that single-event-upsets (SEUs) due to cosmic rays are a significant source of single bit error in spacecraft computers. The physical mechanism of SEU, electron hole generation by means of Linear Energy Transfer (LET), it discussed with reference made to the results of a study of the environmental effects on computer systems of the Galileo spacecraft. Techniques for making software more tolerant of cosmic ray effects are considered, including: reducing the number of registers used by the software; continuity testing of variables; redundant execution of major procedures for error detection; and encoding state variables to detect single-bit changes. Attention is also given to design modifications which may reduce the cosmic ray exposure of on-board hardware. These modifications include: shielding components operating in LEO; removing low-power Schottky parts; and the use of CMOS diodes. The SEU parameters of different electronic components are listed in a table.

Rasmussen, R. D.↗

Preface to the Special Collection: Recollections in Space Physics

Space Physics is a comparatively young scientific discipline, tightly linked to the era of satellite based investigations and the discoveries that came with it. As such, we as a community are fortunate to have met, been taught and mentored by, and even become friends with, many of those who were around to witness the birth of, and in many cases establish, our field. Each of these "Pioneers" have remarkable stories to tell. These accounts from the dawn of the space age provide a glimpse into that era of scientific discovery and are an important part of our collective history that deserve to be shared and commemorated. These are stories of perseverance, ingenuity, luck, and sometimes failure. We are fortunate to live in an era in which these distinguished scientists are still with us and able to share their experiences.To commemorate the 100th Anniversary of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), we have solicited a special collection of recollection papers to memorialize these experiences. This is not the first such effort to capture these stories. In 1994 (Vol. 99, No. A10, pp. 19,099-19,212) and again in 1996 (Vol. 101, No. A5, pp. 10,477-10,585) JGRSpace Physics published special sections entitled, "Pioneers of Space Physics," in celebration of AGU's 75th anniversary. Later, in 1997, Gilmore and Spreiter (1997) added a set of recollection papers on the discovery of the magnetosphere. Together, these papers containing personal accounts from the pioneers of the space age covered the period of roughly 1958-1967.It is our great honor to present retrospective papers from several of our distinguished colleagues who contributed significantly to the explosion in understanding of space physics and aeronomy that occurred from roughly 1967-1980. We chose to start at the end of the previous set of recollections and cover the decade of the 1970s, during which our field greatly expanded. It is also a time in which the second generation of space scientists entered the field and made foundational discoveries that continue to define our discipline.As with the previous papers, we asked the authors to "recount some of the events leading to the emergence of space physics and to put the events into a professional as well as personal perspective." (Gombosi et al.,1994). The authors of this special collection of recollections were selected following the same guidelines as the previous efforts. We started from a long list of senior colleagues and narrowed the list to roughly two dozen distinguished scientists based on discipline and geographic balance. Some of our colleagues, when asked, felt they would be unable to devote the time or energy to such a recollection and declined. Sadly,in the intervening 25 years since the original effort, some of our colleagues who were most active during the early years of the space age have passed. Therefore, this new special collection, 25 years after the first one, is timely with the AGU centennial celebrations, but late in fully capturing the stories of the pioneers of space physics. This is unfortunate and we encourage future editors of this journal to commission specialsections of legacy perspectives with a faster cadence than a quarter of a century.

Kepko, Emil L.↗

Thunderstorm coupling to the magnetosphere and associated ionospheric effects

This project deals with the coupling of electromagnetic energy released during a thunderstorm to the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. Both the effects of an individual lightning event as well the aggregate of all the lightning events during a thunderstorm are considered. Energy in the very low frequency (VLF) band can play a variety of roles in the magnetospheric and ionospheric physics: generation of plasmaspheric hiss believed to be responsible for the slot region in the radiation belts, generation of lower hybrid waves that can heat ions in the auroral and subauroral regions, precipitation of energetic electrons, ionospheric heating etc. While these phenomena have been identified, and characterized to some extent, the influence and role of thunderstorm energy on the magnetosphere and ionosphere at a global scale is not known. Only recently, simultaneous high resolution (temporal and spatial) data sets from ground based lightning detectors and space and ground based VLF detectors have become available, and thus it has become possible to raise a question of the kind mentioned above and try to answer it quantitatively. Work on the correlation between individual lightning discharges in a thunderstorm as detected by the lightning network and the whistlers observed on the DE-1 satellite continued during this period. Results are summarized.

Inan, Umran S.↗

Signal Analysis of Helicopter Blade-Vortex-Interaction Acoustic Noise Data

Blade-Vortex-Interaction (BVI) produces annoying high-intensity impulsive noise. NASA Ames collected several sets of BVI noise data during in-flight and wind tunnel tests. The goal of this work is to extract the essential features of the BVI signals from the in-flight data and examine the feasibility of extracting those features from BVI noise recorded inside a large wind tunnel. BVI noise generating mechanisms and BVI radiation patterns an are considered and a simple mathematical-physical model is presented. It allows the construction of simple synthetic BVI events that are comparable to free flight data. The boundary effects of the wind tunnel floor and ceiling are identified and more complex synthetic BVI events are constructed to account for features observed in the wind tunnel data. It is demonstrated that improved recording of BVI events can be attained by changing the geometry of the rotor hub, floor, ceiling and microphone. The Euclidean distance measure is used to align BVI events from each blade and improved BVI signals are obtained by time-domain averaging the aligned data. The differences between BVI events for individual blades are then apparent. Removal of wind tunnel background noise by optimal Wiener-filtering is shown to be effective provided representative noise-only data have been recorded. Elimination of wind tunnel reflections by cepstral and optimal filtering deconvolution is examined. It is seen that the cepstral method is not applicable but that a pragmatic optimal filtering approach gives encouraging results. Recommendations for further work include: altering measurement geometry, real-time data observation and evaluation, examining reflection signals (particularly those from the ceiling) and performing further analysis of expected BVI signals for flight conditions of interest so that microphone placement can be optimized for each condition.

Rogers, James C.↗

Detection and Characterization of Instrumental Transients in LISA Pathfinder and Their Projection to LISA

The LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission succeeded outstandingly in demonstrating key technologicalaspects of future space-borne gravitational-wave detectors, such as the Laser Interferometer SpaceAntenna (LISA). Specifically, LPF demonstrated with unprecedented sensitivity the measurementof the relative acceleration of two free-falling cubic test masses. Although most disruptive non-gravitational forces have been identified and their effects mitigated through a series of calibrationprocesses, some faint transient signals of yet unexplained origin remain in the measurements. If theyappear in the LISA data, these perturbations (also called glitches) could skew the characterizationof gravitational-wave sources or even be confused with gravitational-wave bursts. For the firsttime, we provide a comprehensive census of LPF transient events. Our analysis is based on aphenomenological shapelet model allowing us to derive simple statistics about the physical featuresof the glitch population. We then implement a generator of synthetic glitches designed to be usedfor subsequent LISA studies, and perform a preliminary evaluation of the effect of the glitches onfuture LISA data analyses.

Quentin Baghi↗

Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

Gardner, Adrian↗

Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

agricultural systems↗

Synthesis of 3-D Coronal-Solar Wind Energetic Particle Acceleration Modules

Acute space radiation hazards pose one of the most serious risks to future human and robotic exploration. Large solar energetic particle (SEP) events are dangerous to astronauts and equipment. The ability to predict when and where large SEPs will occur is necessary in order to mitigate their hazards. The Coronal-Solar Wind Energetic Particle Acceleration (C-SWEPA) modeling effort in the NASANSF Space Weather Modeling Collaborative [Schunk, 2014] combines two successful Living With a Star (LWS) (http:lws.gsfc.nasa.gov) strategic capabilities: the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Modules (EMMREM)[Schwadron et al., 2010] that describe energetic particles and their effects, with the Next Generation Model forthe Corona and Solar Wind developed by the Predictive Science, Inc. (PSI) group. The goal of the C-WEPA effort is to develop a coupled model that describes the conditions of the corona, solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated shocks, particle acceleration, and propagation via physics-based modules. Assessing the threat of SEPs is a difficult problem. The largest SEPs typically arise in conjunction with X classflares and very fast (1000 kms) CMEs. These events are usually associated with complex sunspot groups(also known as active regions) that harbor strong, stressed magnetic fields. Highly energetic protonsgenerated in these events travel near the speed of light and can arrive at Earth minutes after the eruptiveevent. The generation of these particles is, in turn, believed to be primarily associated with the shock waveformed very low in the corona by the passage of the CME (injection of particles fromthe flare sitemay also playa role). Whether these particles actually reach Earth (or any other point) depends on their transport in theinterplanetary magnetic field and their magnetic connection to the shock.

exploration↗

Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events Using Library Tools (CAMEL) Framework: Time Series Comparisons

The Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (CAMEL) framework leverages existing Community Coordinated Modeling Center services: Run on Request post processing tools that generate model time series outputs and the new Community Coordinated Modeling Center Metadata Registry that describes simulation runs using Space Physics Archive Search and Extract metadata. The new CAMEL visualization tool compares the modeled time series with observational data and computes a suite of skill scores such as Prediction Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error, and Symmetric Signed Percentage Bias. Model data pairs used for skill calculations are obtained considering a user selected maximum difference between the time of observation and the nearest model output. The system renders available data for all locations and time periods selected using interactive visualizations that allow the user to zoom, pan, and pick data values along traces. Skill scores are reported for each selected event or aggregated over all events for all participating model runs. Separately, scores are reported for all locations (satellites or stations) and for each location individually. We are building on past experiences with model data comparisons of magnetosphere and ionosphere model outputs from GEM2008, GEMCEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere, and the SWPC Operational Space Weather Model challenges. The CAMEL visualization tool is demonstrated using three validation studies: (a) Wang Sheeley Arge heliosphere simulations compared against OMNI solar wind data, (b) ground magnetic perturbations from several magnetosphere and ionosphere electrodynamics models as observed by magnetometers, and (c) electron fluxes from several ring current simulations compared to Radiation Belt Storm Probes Helium Oxygen Proton Electron instrument measurements, integrated over different energy ranges.

Rastätter, Lutz↗

A ROS-based Simulator for Testing the Enhanced Autonomous Navigation of the Mars 2020 Rover

In order to achieve the ambitious objectives of the Mars 2020 (M2020) mission, in particular the ability to autonomously traverse more challenging terrains more efficiently, new surface mobility software was developed for Enhanced Navigation (ENav). That decision was made early in the project, before most of the new surface flight software (FSW) existed, which created a need for a separate framework where the new navigation algorithms could be quickly prototyped and tested, before more realistic FSW-based testbeds became available. The JPL robotics team chose the Robot Operating System [1] (ROS) as the environment in which to test the new ENav algorithms. This made it possible to write the algorithms in the C language required by the FSW, so they could be directly ported over to the flight module later on, while leveraging all the C++ libraries and tools provided by ROS for simulation and testing. The ENav algorithms were developed as a separate C library, and stubs were used to replace any FSW-specific code, such as Event Reporting (EVRs) and data products (DPs). A ROS simulator was developed to generate a rich set of varied 3D terrains representative of the candidate Mars landing sites and simulate the physics of the rover motion, the point cloud perceived by the rover’s stereo vision system, and the new thinking-while-driving (TWD) navigation logic which directs the rover to drive autonomously to user-specified waypoints. To simulate the rover motion and perception, a ROS node was developed that uses a software library called HyperDrive Sim (HDSim), which is a wrapper for the Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program [2] (RSVP). That library provides roverterrain settling, realistic slip modelling, and camera rendering capability based on the rover’s NavCam machine vision models. To simulate the navigation logic, a ROS node was created that initializes and runs the ENav algorithms in a way that mimics the FSW execution, while also providing the capability to load and replay data products, including re-running the recorded inputs through the ENav algorithms for testing. An engineering Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed to visualize various elements, such as the rover pose during the drive, the simulated and perceived terrain, the selected local and global paths to the goal, the evaluated candidate paths and the reasons why they were rejected, the keep-in and keep-out zones (KIOZs), etc. Finally, an advanced Monte Carlo (MC) framework that can run many simulations in parallel on the Cloud and automatically generate reports that capture the key ENav performance metrics was developed to evaluate the system in a statisticallymeaningful way. This paper provides an overview of the ROSbased simulator used for testing the M2020 ENav algorithms.

Toupet, Olivier↗

3D MHD Models of Active Region Loops

Present imaging and spectroscopic observations of active region loops allow to determine many physical parameters of the coronal loops, such as the density, temperature, velocity of flows in loops, and the magnetic field. However, due to projection effects many of these parameters remain ambiguous. Three dimensional imaging in EUV by the STEREO spacecraft will help to resolve the projection ambiguities, and the observations could be used to setup 3D MHD models of active region loops to study the dynamics and stability of active regions. Here the results of 3D MHD models of active region loops are presented, and the progress towards more realistic 3D MHD models of active regions. In particular the effects of impulsive events on the excitation of active region loop oscillations, and the generation, propagations and reflection of EIT waves are shown. It is shown how 3D MHD models together with 3D EUV observations can be used as a diagnostic tool for active region loop physical parameters, and to advance the science of the sources of solar coronal activity.

Ofman, Leon↗

Development of Hairpin Vortices in Turbulent Spots and End-Wall Transition

The end-stage phase of boundary layer transition is characterized by the development of hairpin-like vortices which evolve rapidly into patches of turbulent behavior. In general, the characteristics of the evolution form this hairpin stage to the turbulent stage is poorly understood, which has prompted the present experimental examination of hairpin vortex development and growth processes. Two topics of particular relevance to the workshop focus will be covered: 1) the growth of turbulent spots through the generatio and amalgamation of hairpin-like vortices, and 2) the development of hairpin vortices during transition in an end-wall junction flow. Brief summaries of these studies are described below. Using controlled generation of hairpin vortices by surface injection in a critical laminar boundary layer, detailed flow visualization studies have been done of the phases of growth of single hairpin vortices, from the initial hairgin generation, through the systematic generation of secondary hairpin-like flow structures, culminating in the evolution to a turbulent spot. The key to the growth process is strong vortex-surface interactions, which give rise to strong eruptive events adjacent to the surface, which results in the generation of subsequent hairpin vortex structures due to inviscid-viscuous interactions between the eruptive events and the free steam fluid. The general process of vortex-surface fluid interaction, coupled with subsequent interactions and amalgamation of the generated multiple hairpin-type vortices, is demonstrated as a physical mechanism for the growth and development of turbulent spots. When a boundary layer flow along a surface encounters a bluff body obstruction extending from the surface (such as cylinder or wing), the strong adverse pressure gradients generated by these types of flows result in the concentration of the impinging vorticity into a system of discrete vortices near the end-wall juncture of the obstruction, with the extensions of the vortices engirdling the obstruction to form "necklace" or "horseshoe" vortices. Recent hydrogen bubble and particle image visualization have shown that as Reynolds number is increased for a laminar approach flow, the flow will become critical, and a destabilization of the necklace vortices results in the development of an azimuthal waviness, or "kinks", in the vortices. These vortex kinks are accentuated by Biot-Savart effects, causing portions of a distorted necklace vortex to make a rapid approach to the surface, precipitating processes of localized, three-dimensional surface interactions. These interactions result in the rapid generation, focussing, and ejection of thin tongues of surface fluid, which rapidly roll-over and appear as hairpin vortices in the junction region. Subsequent amalgamation of these hairpin vortices with the necklace vortices produces a complex transitional-type flow. A presentation of key results from both these studies will be done, emphasizing both the ubiquity of such hairpin-type flow structures in manifold transitional-type flows, and the importance of vortex-surface interactions n the development of hairpin vortices.

Smith, Charles R.↗