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Planetary Defense Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project

Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning period of two years on a collision course with Earth. The hypothetical comet is on a highly-inclined orbit having a high probability for Earth impact after its perihelion. For detection, we propose a space-based infrared detection system consisting of two satellites located at the Earth-Moon Lagrange points L1 and L2 coupled with space observatories, like the James Webb telescope and the Centennial telescope. These telescopes are supported by ground-based telescopes, like the Arecibo and Green Bank telescope, in the search for NEOs. Upon detection, the comet is tracked constantly using space- and ground-based telescopes. The deflection system is two-pronged, firstly involving the use of a high energy Directed Energy Laser Terminals (DELT) placed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 so as to initiate and increase the ablation rate of the comet and deviate it from its collision trajectory, and secondly by the Hypervelocity Comet Intercept Vehicle (HCIV), a space-borne system combining a kinetic impactor with a thermonuclear device. The policy and international collaboration aspects to implement these methods are also outlined in the paper. The techniques mentioned could also be applied to mitigate medium-to-large sized asteroids (up to 2km across).

Laser Applications↗

Advanced Solar Electric Propulsion for Planetary Defense

Once the current survey to identify all near-Earth objects larger than 140-m diameter is complete, the major hazard from asteroid impacts may be from asteroids in the 50- to 100-m diameter size range. High-power solar electric propulsion systems employed in “slow-push” techniques may be the best way to deflect asteroids in this size range if deflection is warranted. The relative performance of three slow-push techniques—gravity tractor (GT), enhanced gravity tractor (EGT), and ion beam deflection (IBD)—are compared, assuming solar electric propulsion vehicles derived from NASA’s Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission concept vehicle. Both the enhanced gravity tractor and ion beam deflection concepts are shown to be significantly better than the standard gravity tractor concept. The Hall-thruster based enhanced gravity tractor systems and ion beam deflection systems (based on the use of high-power gridded ion thrusters) are shown to provide comparable performance, i.e., similar deflection times and propellant required. Enhanced gravity tractor systems require the acquisition of material from the surface of the hazardous object in order to achieve the required “enhancement” of the gravitational coupling force. This makes EGT systems sensitive to the rotational state and surface properties of the unknown object, and potentially severely limits its applicability. Ion beam deflection is completely independent of the characteristics of the threat object. In fact, it is the only asteroid deflection technique, slow-push or otherwise, that can make this claim, thus potentially greatly increasing its applicability relative to other deflection techniques. Finally, high-power IBD systems are shown to be capable of deflecting the fictitious asteroid 2015 PDC used in the hypothetical asteroid impact exercise conducted at the 2015 Planetary Defense Conference.

Brophy, John↗

Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids: Implications for Exploration, Science, Resource Utilization, and Planetary Defense

Introduction: In 2009 the Augustine Commission identified near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) as high profile destinations for human exploration missions beyond the Earth-Moon system as part of the Flexible Path. More recently the U.S. presidential administration directed NASA to include NEAs as destinations for future human exploration with the goal of sending astronauts to a NEA in the mid to late 2020s. This directive became part of the official National Space Policy of the United States of America as of June 28, 2010. NEA Space-Based Survey and Robotic Precursor Missions: The most suitable targets for human missions are NEAs in Earth-like orbits with long synodic periods. However, these mission candidates are often not observable from Earth until the timeframe of their most favorable human mission opportunities, which does not provide an appropriate amount of time for mission development. A space-based survey telescope could more efficiently find these targets in a timely, affordable manner. Such a system is not only able to discover new objects, but also track and characterize objects of interest for human space flight consideration. Those objects with characteristic signatures representative of volatile-rich or metallic materials will be considered as top candidates for further investigation due to their potential for resource utilization and scientific discovery. Once suitable candidates have been identified, precursor spacecraft are required to perform basic reconnaissance of a few NEAs under consideration for the human-led mission. Robotic spacecraft will assess targets for potential hazards that may pose a risk to the deep space transportation vehicle, its deployable assets, and the crew. Additionally, the information obtained about the NEA's basic physical characteristics will be crucial for planning operational activities, designing in-depth scientific/engineering investigations, and identifying sites on the NEA for sample collection. Human Exploration Considerations: These missions would be the first human expeditions to interplanetary bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars, Phobos and Deimos, and other Solar System destinations. Current analyses of operational concepts suggest that stay times of 15 to 30 days may be possible at a NEA with total mission duration limits of 180 days or less. Hence, these missions would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while simultaneously conducting detailed investigations of these primitive objects with instruments and equipment that exceed the mass and power capabilities delivered by robotic spacecraft. All of these activities will be vital for refinement of resource characterization/identification and development of extraction/utilization technologies to be used on airless bodies under low- or micro-gravity conditions. In addition, gaining enhanced understanding of a NEA s geotechnical properties and its gross internal structure will assist the development of hazard mitigation techniques for planetary defense. Conclusions: The scientific, resource utilization, and hazard mitigation benefits, along with the programmatic and operational benefits of a human venture beyond the Earth-Moon system, make a piloted sample return mission to a NEA using NASA s proposed human exploration systems a compelling endeavor.

Abell, P. A.↗

Multi-Organization Multi-Discipline Effort Developing a Mitigation Concept for Planetary Defense

There have been significant recent efforts in addressing mitigation approaches to neutralize Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA). One such research effort was performed in 2015 by an integrated, inter-disciplinary team of asteroid scientists, energy deposition modeling scientists, payload engineers, orbital dynamist engineers, spacecraft discipline engineers, and systems architecture engineer from NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the Department of Energy (DoE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) laboratories (Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) and Sandia National Laboratories). The study team collaborated with GSFCs Integrated Design Centers Mission Design Lab (MDL) which engaged a team of GSFC flight hardware discipline engineers to work with GSFC, LANL, and LLNL NEA-related subject matter experts during a one-week intensive concept formulation study in an integrated concurrent engineering environment. This team has analyzed the first of several distinct study cases for a multi-year NASA research grant. This Case 1 study references the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) named Bennu as the notional target due to the availability of a very detailed Design Reference Asteroid (DRA) model for its orbit and physical characteristics (courtesy of the Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission team). The research involved the formulation and optimization of spacecraft trajectories to intercept Bennu, overall mission and architecture concepts, and high-fidelity modeling of both kinetic impact (spacecraft collision to change a NEAs momentum and orbit) and nuclear detonation effects on Bennu, for purposes of deflecting Bennu.

Planetary Defense↗

Human Expeditions to Near-Earth Asteroids: Implications for Exploration, Resource Utilization, Science, and Planetary Defense

Over the past several years, much attention has been focused on human exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and planetary defence. Two independent NASA studies examined the feasibility of sending piloted missions to NEAs, and in 2009, the Augustine Commission identified NEAs as high profile destinations for human exploration missions beyond the Earth-Moon system as part of the Flexible Path. More recently the current U.S. presidential administration directed NASA to include NEAs as destinations for future human exploration with the goal of sending astronauts to a NEA in the mid to late 2020s. This directive became part of the official National Space Policy of the United States of America as of June 28, 2010. With respect to planetary defence, in 2005 the U.S. Congress directed NASA to implement a survey program to detect, track, and characterize NEAs equal or greater than 140 m in diameter in order to access the threat from such objects to the Earth. The current goal of this survey is to achieve 90% completion of objects equal or greater than 140 m in diameter by 2020.

Abell, Paul↗

Planetary Defense: Options for Deflection of Near Earth Objects

In FY 2002 a team of engineers and scientists at MSFC conducted a preliminary investigation of the options for deflecting a Near Earth Object (NEO) fiom a collision course with the earth. A general discussion of the current threat facing the earth from NEO s is outlined. A suite of tools were developed to model inbound and outbound trajectories, propulsive options, and assessment of threat. Propulsive options considered included; staged chemical, nuclear ablation and deflagration, mass driver and solar sail concepts. Trajectory tools plotted the outbound course to intercept the NE0 and the deflection requirements to cause the inbound NE0 to miss the earth. Threat assessment tools estimated the number of lives saved over a given time frame by deploying a system capable of deflecting an NE0 of a certain size and velocity. All of these tools were integrated into a routine to find the most effective vehicle for a given mission mass and mission time. Discussion of desired future efforts is given. This work was funded under the Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts activity from NASA HQ.

Adams, Robert B.↗

Planetary Defense: Options for Deflection of Near Earth Objects

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This document reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of Near Earth Objects (NEO’s) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are then given of an MSFC-led study, intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEO’s. An existing program, used to model the NEO threat, was extensively modified and is presented here. Details of various analytical tools, developed to evaluate the performance of proposed technologies for protection against the NEO threat, are also presented. Trajectory tools, developed to model the outbound path a vehicle would take to intercept or rendezvous with a target asteroid or comet, are described. Also, details are given of a tool that was created to model both the un-deflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection, path. The number of possible options available for protection against the NEO threat was too numerous for them to all be addressed within the study; instead, a representative selection were modeled and evaluated. The major output from this work was a novel process by which the relative effectiveness of different threat mitigation concepts can be evaluated during future, more detailed, studies. In addition, several new or modified mathematical models were developed to analyze various proposed protection systems. A summary of the major lessons learned during this study is presented, as are recommendations for future work. It is hoped that this study will serve to raise the level attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Planets↗

Large-Scale Experimental Planetary Science Meets Planetary Defense: Deorbiting an Asteroidal Satellite

Other than remote-sensing and spacecraft-derived data, the only information that exists regarding the physical and chemical properties of asteroids is that inferred through calculations, numerical simulations, extrapolation of experiments, and meteorite studies. Our understanding of the dynamics of accretion of planetesimals, collisional disruption of asteroids, and the macroscopic, shock-induced modification of the surfaces of such small objects is also, for the most part, founded on similar inferences. While considerable strides have been made in improving the state of asteroid science, too many unknowns remain to assert that we understand the parameters necessary for the more practical problem of deflecting an asteroid or asteroid pair on an Earth-intersecting trajectory. Many of these deficiencies could be reduced or eliminated by intentionally deorbiting an asteroidal satellite and monitoring the resulting collision between it and the primary asteroid, a capability that is well within the limitations of current technology.

Cintala, M. J.↗

Near-Earth Objects: Targets for Future Human Exploration, Solar System Science, and Planetary Defense

Human exploration of near-Earth objects (NEOs) beginning circa 2025 - 2030 is one of the stated objectives of U.S. National Space Policy. Piloted missions to these bodies would further development of deep space mission systems and technologies, obtain better understanding of the origin and evolution of our Solar System, and support research for asteroid deflection and hazard mitigation strategies. This presentation will discuss some of the physical characteristics of NEOs and review some of the current plans for NEO research and exploration from both a human and robotic mission perspective.

Abell, Paul A.↗

Enhanced Gravity Tractor Technique for Planetary Defense

Given sufficient warning time, Earth-impacting asteroids and comets can be deflected with a variety of different "slow push/pull" techniques. The gravity tractor is one technique that uses the gravitational attraction of a rendezvous spacecraft to the impactor and a low-thrust, high-efficiency propulsion system to provide a gradual velocity change and alter its trajectory. An innovation to this technique, known as the Enhanced Gravity Tractor (EGT), uses mass collected in-situ to augment the mass of the spacecraft, thereby greatly increasing the gravitational force between the objects. The collected material can be a single boulder, multiple boulders, regolith or a combination of different sources. The collected mass would likely range from tens to hundreds of metric tons depending on the size of the impactor and warning time available. Depending on the propulsion system's capability and the mass collected, the EGT approach can reduce the deflection times by a factor of 10 to 50 or more, thus reducing the deflection times of several decades to years or less and overcoming the main criticism of the traditional gravity tractor approach. Additionally, multiple spacecraft can orbit the target in formation to provide the necessary velocity change and further reduce the time needed by the EGT technique to divert hazardous asteroids and comets. The robotic segment of NASA's Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) will collect a multi-ton boulder from the surface of a large Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) and will provide the first ever demonstration of the EGT technique and validate one method of collecting in-situ mass on an asteroid of hazardous size.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response

This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.

characterization↗