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NASA NTRS2023

Approaching a Thermal Tipping Point in the Eurasian Boreal Forest at its Southern Margin

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report that Larix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (T crit of photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25 th percentile of Larix sibirica’s T crit by two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome’s continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits.

Boreal ecology↗

NASA NTRS2024

Effects of Water Limitation and Competition on Tree Carbon Allocation in an Earth System Modeling Framework

Earth system models (ESMs) have a limited capacity to represent plant functional diversity and shifts in trait distributions. Approaches to improving the representation of this complexity in ESMs include (i) optimality-based approaches that predict trait–environment responses and (ii) explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly. These approaches are expected to converge only when optimality-based approaches identify competitively dominant strategies, which often differ from strategies that maximize ecosystem functioning or fitness components in monoculture. We used two models, LM3-PPA (a vegetation demographic model designed as an ESM component) and BiomeE (a computationally efficient analog for LM3-PPA), to explore how water limitation affects carbon allocation strategies of canopy trees. We compared competitive allocation strategies and those that maximize biomass or productivity in monoculture. We did not explicitly model coexistence or community assembly. Rather, we used model experiments to identify competitive and maximizing strategies in a two-dimensional trait space under different precipitation and mortality scenarios. At 10 eastern US locations, we simulated historical, wet and dry climate scenarios, novel drought and three different mortality scenarios (low, medium or high sensitivity to water deficit). For each site and scenario, we identified the competitive strategy and three maximizing strategies (maximum biomass, productivity or drought-tolerance). Root: leaf ratios tended to increase and leaf area tended to decrease with increasing water stress (increasing water limitation and its effects on mortality). However, relative to maximizing strategies, competitive strategies shifted towards greater allocation to roots and leaves with increasing water stress. Competitive overinvestments (greater allocation to roots and leaves by competitive strategies compared with maximizing strategies) were robust across different modelling contexts, including vegetation parameter sets (Acer vs. Populus), models (LM3-PPA vs. BiomeE) and uncalibrated vs. calibrated BiomeE versions. Synthesis: The theoretical prediction that competitive and maximizing allocation strategies differ under water limitation is confirmed for a demographic model designed as an ESM component. Optimality-based trait predictions can simplify representing trait diversity in ESMs but do not always correspond to competitive outcomes. Explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly in ESMs is challenging but is likely the most general approach to representing trait diversity.

vegetation demographic model↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Crop Evaluation Research for Environmental Strategies (CERES) Remote Sensing 2008 Project Activities

In recent years, the use of Plant Incorporated Protectant (PIP) corn by American producers has been increasing dramatically. PIP corn contains genetically inserted traits that produce toxins in the plant that provide narrowly targeted protection against specific insect pests. The plant producing t oxms can offer significant reductions in the application of broad -spectrum pesticides that have ecological and human health consequences. PIP corn as a percentage of total corn acreage planted in the US is expected to continue to increase as these protective traits are "stacked" with other desirable traits by seed companies, and producers are seeing considerable increases in corn yield as a result. The introduction of corn as a bio-fuel source for ethanol has increased production by over 6 million hectares in 2007. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), which is responsible for the registration of PIP crops under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act, views the use of PIP corn as positive. Broad spectrum pesticide use has declined since the PIP traits have been introduced. As the agricultural landscape sees a higher percentage of corn acres using the PIP technology, the risk of the targeted insect pest populations developing resistance to the toxins, thereby rendering the in will increase as well. This result would negate the effectiveness of the PIP corn traits and could reduce production of a US field corn crop valued at $33 billion dollars in 2006 and place US food and now energy security at risk. Concerns over insect pest resistance development to PIP traits have led the USEPA to team with NASA and the Institute for Technology Development (ITD) to develop geo-spatial technologies designed to proactively monitor the corn production landscape for insect pest infestation and possible resistance development. USEPA resistance management simulation models are combined with NASA remote sensi ng products to monitor the corn landscape for resistance development. The two agencies have entered into an agreement which could potentially lead to the development of next generation NASA sensors that will more specifically address the requirements of the USEPA's resistance development strategy and offer opportunities to study the ever changing ecosystem complexities. The USEPA/NASA/ITD team has developed a broad research project entitled CERES (Crop Evaluation Research for Environmental Strategies). CERES is a research effort leading to decision support system tools that are designed to integrate multi-resolution NASA remote sensing data products and USEPA geo -spatial models to monitor the potential for insect pest resistance development from the regional to the landscape and then to the field level.

Casas, Joseph C.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Mapping invasive alien species in grassland ecosystems using airborne imaging spectroscopy and remotely observable vegetation functional traits

Lespedeza cuneata (sericea lespedeza; hereafter “sericea”) is an invasive species brought to the U.S. from East Asia in the 1890s to be used as forage. However, it has now become a growing ecological and economic threat in grasslands of several states in the U.S. southern Great Plains including Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. Here, we demonstrate the capability of airborne imaging spectroscopy to map sericea in a large natural grassland within the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve, the largest protected tallgrass prairie in the world, located in northeastern Oklahoma. Through this research, we investigated which remotely observable vegetation functional traits (referring to biochemical, physiological, and structural traits) contribute to distinguishing sericea from cooccurring native species and whether we can detect sericea remotely through quantifying these functional traits using imaging spectroscopic data (also known as hyperspectral data). To achieve these objectives, full-range airborne hyperspectral data with spatial resolution of 1 m were collected from the study area in August 2020. In addition, a total of 12 vegetation functional traits were measured through field sampling for model development. We first identified functional traits that contributed to separating sericea from other species, and then used them in a classification model to detect sericea in our study site. We found total carotenoids (sum of neoxanthin, violaxanthin, antheraxanthin, zeaxanthin, and lutein), chlorophyll a + b (sum of chlorophyll a and chlorophyll b), total nitrogen, canopy height, potassium, and magnesium as the main functional traits contributing to the detection of sericea; an overall classification accuracy of approximately 94% was reported. However, the proposed approach overestimated sericea cover in species-rich plant communities. Overall, our findings demonstrated an essential role for airborne remote sensing in 1) direct mapping of invasive plants and 2) quantifying functional traits associated with success strategies of invasive species. Eventually, experiments like ours can aid in developing large-scale and science-driven management practices to both identify the current extent, and to control the spread of invasive species in grasslands and similar short-stature environments. This will not only improve management practices but will have major societal and economic benefits.

Hamed Gholizadeh↗

NASA NTRS2012

Incorporating Plant Phenology Dynamics in a Biophysical Canopy Model

The Multi-Layer Canopy Model (MLCan) is a vegetation model created to capture plant responses to environmental change. Themodel vertically resolves carbon uptake, water vapor and energy exchange at each canopy level by coupling photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and leaf energy balance. The model is forced by incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, as well as near-surface meteorological conditions. The original formulation of MLCan utilized canopy structural traits derived from observations. This project aims to incorporate a plant phenology scheme within MLCan allowing these structural traits to vary dynamically. In the plant phenology scheme implemented here, plant growth is dependent on environmental conditions such as air temperature and soil moisture. The scheme includes functionality that models plant germination, growth, and senescence. These growth stages dictate the variation in six different vegetative carbon pools: storage, leaves, stem, coarse roots, fine roots, and reproductive. The magnitudes of these carbon pools determine land surface parameters such as leaf area index, canopy height, rooting depth and root water uptake capacity. Coupling this phenology scheme with MLCan allows for a more flexible representation of the structure and function of vegetation as it responds to changing environmental conditions.

environmental changes↗

NASA NTRS2024

Unveiling the Transferability of PLSR Models for Leaf Trait Estimation: Lessons from a Comprehensive Analysis with a Novel Global Dataset

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47,393 records for >700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally-distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R 2 (0.12-0.49, 0.15-0.42, and 0.25-0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58-18.24%, 6.27-11.55% and 7.0-33.12%) compared to nonspatial random cross-validation (NRCV). The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs and time due to biased validation schemes and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

Leaf traits↗

NASA NTRS2022

Canopy height and climate dryness parsimoniously explain spatial variation of unstressed stomatal conductance

The spatio-temporal variation of stomatal conductance directly regulates photosynthesis, water partitioning, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions. While many studies have focused on stomatal response to stresses, the spatial variation of unstressed stomatal conductance remains poorly determined, and is usually characterized in land surface models (LSMs) simply based on plant functional type (PFT). Here, we derived unstressed stomatal conductance at the ecosystem-scale using observations from 115 global FLUXNET sites. When aggregated by PFTs, the across-PFT pattern was highly consistent with the parameterizations of LSMs. However, PFTs alone captured only 17% of the variation in unstressed stomatal conductance across sites. Within the same PFT, unstressed stomatal conductance was negatively related to climate dryness and canopy height, which explained 45% of the total spatial variation. Our results highlight the importance of plant environment interactions in shaping stomatal traits. The trait-environment relationship established here provides an empirical approach for improved parameterizations of stomatal conductance in LSMs.

Yanlan Liu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantitative Phenotypic Analysis of Arabidopsis Thaliana Grown in Microgravity Using Soap, an Applied Artificial Intelligence

Phenotypic analysis is an essential step in studying the gravitropic responses and gravitational stress experienced by plants grown in microgravity. Many of the phenotypic traits analyzed in gravitropism studies, such as root length, leaf area, secondary root count, and number of root hairs, currently rely upon manual measurement methods for quantification. However, new advances in data analysis technology using artificial intelligence offer an opportunity for more efficient phenotypic analysis and a reduction of time spent in the data collection phase. In this project, the ability of a new artificially intelligent data collection software, SOAP (Simple Object Access Protocol), to collect and quantify phenotypic traits of Arabidopsis thaliana will be assessed. This project will test the measurements taken by an initial draft of the software. SOAP will take measurements of shoot length, a key phenotype used to assess A. thaliana stress response when grown in microgravity conditions. Shoot length measurements made by SOAP will be compared against a series of manual shoot length measurements. The comparison between the two methods of data measurement will provide valuable insight into the relative accuracy of SOAP and the margin of human error when conducting lab measurements.

Arabidopsis↗

NASA NTRS2022

New Directions in Tropical Phenology

Earth’s most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a ‘temperate phenological paradigm’ expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical – and temperate – phenology.

tropical phenology↗

NASA NTRS2020

Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit

Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure deficit (VPD). VPD has been identified as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought‐induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in ‘next‐generation’ land‐surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant‐ and global‐scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long‐term projections of climate impacts can be made.

mortality↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mining the Gravity Mutants of Arabidopsis

Gravity mutants are a valuable resource for understanding gravity perception, signaling, and response in plants. A review of 190 publications resulted in a list of 97 loci with mutations that caused a gravitropic phenotype. While all these mutants show some form of gravity phenotype, several are also generally defective in growth. After removing these nonspecific mutants, 76 loci were deemed to have true gravity mutants. The gene list was then used to create a sortable database containing key factors of gravity signaling as well as data on methodologies and the development of mutant lines. Indexing this database has allowed us to pull out trends that were not visible in individual publications. For example, mutants that are unable to rearrange starch statoliths make up a larger proportion of the described inflorescence stems mutants than any other organ. Comparing these statolith mutants across organs shows that root and inflorescence stems consistently display different phenotypes for the same class of defect. The more severe gravity defects are most commonly described in root tissue while other tissues are more likely to show only a delayed or reduced response to gravity. The experience of members of the GeneLab plant Analytics Working Group (AWG) in data visualization and gene mapping have sparked new ideas for utilizing this database. Knowledge of shared traits, mutant development, and growth can provide a new resource for the production of seed lines specialized for their response to gravity.

gravitropism↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

State of Wildfires

Fire is an essential component of ecosystems and acts as key driver of biogeochemical cycling with impacts on vegetation structure and composition, soil conditions, and climate feedbacks. Fire behavior and effects vary based on the types of fuel, fuel dryness, and frequency of ignition. Due to changing climate and land use patterns, fire danger is increasing in many regions globally, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Recurrent fires help to determine the distribution of trees and grasses, and overall fuel load, which inform the behavior of future fires. Process-based models can be used to capture multi-scale impacts at the forest stand-level up to the landscape level, and across minutes to centuries, but must capture variation in fire behavior and intensity as a function of the fuel and climate, from high intensity forest crown fires within boreal regions to low intensity rapid grass fires of the tropics. Fire model development demonstrates our ability to capture large scale fire influenced biogeography and vegetation distribution at the earth system scale through vegetation traits and fire feedbacks. At the individual stand scale the importance of interactions and feedbacks between above and below ground process is essential to capturing the vegetation dynamics across boreal forest systems. Improving the mechanics of including plant physiology and specifically live fuel moisture content is the next step to advancing the capability of process based models to inform fire research. Advances in the testing and creation of a mechanistic live fuel moisture model demonstrate the foundation for future live fuel dynamics research that can be informed by field and remote sensing information. Improved remote sensing, technological and modeling capabilities support a more comprehensive and cohesive fire response that will be better equipped to overcome current barriers and anticipate the new reality of fires in a warming world.

wildfires↗

NASA NTRS2024

Discounting Water for Optimal Carbon Gain as a Basis of Stomatal Closure

The exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is regulated by stomata (small pores in the leaves of plants). Unsurprisingly, environmental factors controlling the opening and closure of stomata has been sought as early as 1800. One approach, popularized in the early 1970s, is a stomatal optimization framework. This framework is based on the hypothesis that plants optimize carbon gain subject to water loss or water availability constraints. This constraint optimization problem was solved in various forms assuming instantaneous adjustments of stomatal aperture to maximize a reward function with no future foresight or legacy effects. Holtzman et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023av001113) offers a novel approach that can diagnose the effective timescale over which the reward function maximization must be time-integrated. The developed method thus optimizes an integrated carbon gain function but adjusted by a discount factor subject to water availability in the root zone. The discount factor considers how the plant values carbon gain to save water and its timescale can be inferred from observations because the model is analytically tractable. The results suggest that the most important climate factor that determines this discount timescale is multi-annual mean of the longest dry period during the growing season. The findings highlight how local climate traits influence the spatial variation in ecosystem-level water use strategies. This sets the stage for expanding such a framework to cases where multiple constraints act in concert while operating at distinct time scales.

stomata↗

NASA NTRS2019

Mitigations to Reduce the Law of Unintended Consequences for Autonomy and Other Technological Advances

The United Nations states that Earth’s population is expected to reach just under 10 billion people (9.7) by the year 2050. To meet the demands of 10 billion people, governments, multinational corporations and global leaders are relying on autonomy and technological advances to augment and/or accommodate human efforts to meet the required needs of daily living. Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) gene-edited plants and cloning will be utilized to expand human food supply. Biomimetic implants are expected to improve life expectancy with 3D printed body parts. Human functioning will be extended with wearables and cybernetic implants continuing humanity’s path toward transhumanism. Families will be strengthened with 3 parent households. Disease will surely be eradicated using the CRISPR-CAS9 genetic engineering revolution to design out undesirable human traits and to design in new capabilities. With autonomous cars, trucks and buses on our roads and on-demand autonomous aircraft delivering pizzas, medical prescriptions and groceries in the air and multi-planet vehicles traversing space, utopia will finally arrive! Or will it? All of these powerful, man-made, technological systems will experience unintended consequences with certainty. Instead of over-reacting with hysteria and fear, we should be seeking answers to the following questions - “What skills are required to architect socially-healthy technological systems for 2050?” “What mindsets should we embody to ameliorate hubris syndrome and to build our future technological systems with deliberation, soberness and social responsibility?”

Morris, A. Terry↗

NASA NTRS2020

Diversity Buffers Winegrowing Regions from Climate Change Losses

Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.

Morales-Castilla, Ignacio↗

NASA NTRS2002

Conservation of the plastid sedimentation zone in all moss genera with known gravitropic protonemata

Moss protonemata from several species are known to be gravitropic. The characterization of additional gravitropic species would be valuable to identify conserved traits that may relate to the mechanism of gravitropism. In this study, four new species were found to have gravitropic protonemata, Fissidens adianthoides, Fissidens cristatus, Physcomitrium pyriforme, and Barbula unguiculata. Comparison of upright and inverted apical cells of P. pyriforme and Fissidens species showed clear axial sedimentation. This sedimentation is highly regulated and not solely dependent on amyloplast size. Additionally, the protonemal tip cells of these species contained broad subapical zones that displayed lateral amyloplast sedimentation. The conservation of a zone of lateral sedimentation in a total of nine gravitropic moss species from five different orders supports the idea that this sedimentation serves a specialized and conserved function in gravitropism, probably in gravity sensing.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Paternal Imprinting of Dosage-Effect Defective1 (Ded1) Contributes to Seed Weight Xenia in Maize

Historically, xenia effects were hypothesized to be unique genetic contributions of pollen to seed phenotype, but most examples represent standard complementation of Mendelian traits. We identified the imprinted dosage-effect defective1 (ded1) locus in maize (Zea mays) as a paternal regulator of seed size and development. Hypomorphic alleles show a 5-10% seed weight reduction when ded1 is transmitted through the male, while homozygous mutants are defective with a 70-90% seed weight reduction. Ded1 encodes an R2R3-MYB transcription factor expressed specifically during early endosperm development with paternal allele bias. DED1 directly activates early endosperm genes and endosperm adjacent to scutellum cell layer genes, while directly repressing late grain-fill genes. These results demonstrate xenia as originally defined: Imprinting of Ded1 causes the paternal allele to set the pace of endosperm development thereby influencing grain set and size.

Genomics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Paternal Imprinting of Dosage-Effect Defective1 Contributes to Seed Weight Xenia in Maize4

Genomics↗