Microbial-explicit processes and refined perennial plant traits improve modeled ecosystem carbon dynamics
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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NGEE Arctic Plant Traits: Shrub Transects, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2016-2017
Transect data is from point center quarter (PCQ) surveys for shrub density performed in July 2016 at the Kougarok site and in July 2017 at the Kougarok, Teller, and Council sites. For each sample point along the transects, moving averages for shrub density and shrub basal area are provided along with GPS coordinates. Average shrub height and active layer depth are recorded for each sample point as well. Target shrub species differ across the transects: some surveys targeted a mixture of tall shrub species while others targeted specific species. In 2017 insect damage was also quantified. The dataset contains two *.csv data files and one *.pdf. Missing Values are represented by "NA". The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Whole-plant phenotypic engineering: moving beyond ratios for multi-objective optimization of nutrient use efficiency
Nutrient use efficiency (NUE) is typically measured as the ratio of yield to soil nutrient availability but ignores contributions of underlying plant traits. Relevant plant traits can be grouped as root acquisition efficiency, shoot radiation use efficiency, and plant metabolic efficiency. The intentional integration of these traits will lead to synergistic improvements of NUE. Recent progress in trait-focused research includes phenotyping root nutrient uptake rates and respiration, engineering reduced photorespiration, and identification of nutrient assimilation pathways. Traits need to be conceptualized in agricultural systems contexts to improve synchrony of plant demand and soil supply of nutrients, including consideration of crop mixtures. Use of simulation modeling and multi-objective optimization will allow accelerating NUE gains beyond selection for a single ratio.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Effect of High-Temperature Stress on Plant Physiological Traits and Mycorrhizal Symbiosis in Maize Plants
Increasing high temperature (HT) has a deleterious effect on plant growth. Earlier works reported the protective role of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) under stress conditions, particularly influencing the physiological parameters. However, the protective role of AMF under high-temperature stress examining physiological parameters with characteristic phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA) of soil microbial communities including AMF has not been studied. This work aims to study how high-temperature stress affects photosynthetic and below-ground traits in maize plants with and without AMF. Photosynthetic parameters like quantum yield of photosystem (PS) II, PSI, electron transport, and fractions of open reaction centers decreased in HT exposed plants, but recovered in AMF + HT plants. AMF + HT plants had significantly higher AM-signature 16:1ω5cis neutral lipid fatty acid (NLFA), spore density in soil, and root colonization with lower lipid peroxidation than non-mycorrhizal HT plants. As a result, enriched plants had more active living biomass, which improved photosynthetic efficiency when exposed to heat. This study provides an understanding of how AM-mediated plants can tolerate high temperatures while maintaining the stability of their photosynthetic apparatus. This is the first study to combine above- and below-ground traits, which could lead to a new understanding of plant and rhizosphere stress.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Modeling the Effects of Global Change on Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Rainforest
Ongoing land-use change and climate change in wet tropical forests can potentially drive shifts in tree species composition, representing a change in individual species within a functional group, tropical evergreen trees. The impacts on the global carbon cycle are potentially large, but unclear. We explored the differential effects of species within this functional group, in comparison with the effects of climate change, using the Century model as a research tool. Simulating effects of individual tree species on biome-level biogeochemical cycles constituted a novel application for Century. Background and Objectives: A unique, long-term, replicated field experiment containing five evergreen tree species in monodominant stands under similar environmental conditions in a Costa Rican wet forest provided data for model evaluation. Our objectives were to gain insights about this forest’s biogeochemical cycles and effects of tree species within this functional group, in comparison with climate change. Materials and Methods: We calibrated Century, using long-term meteorological, soil, and plant data from the field-based experiment. In modeling experiments, we evaluated effects on forest biogeochemistry of eight plant traits that were both observed and modeled. Climate-change simulation experiments represented two climate-change aspects observed in this region. Results: Model calibration revealed that unmodeled soil processes would be required to sustain observed P budgets. In species-traits experiments, three separate plant traits (leaf death rate, leaf C:N, and allocation to fine roots) resulted in modeled biomass C stock changes of >50%, compared with a maximum 21% change in the climate-change experiments. Conclusions: Modeled ecosystem properties and processes in Century were sensitive to changes in plant traits and nutrient limitations to productivity. Realistic model output was attainable for some species, but unusual plant traits thwarted predictions for one species. Including more plant traits and soil processes could increase realism, but less-complex models provide an accessible means for exploring plant-soil-atmosphere interactions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Imitating the “breeder's eye”: Predicting grain yield from measurements of non‐yield traits
Abstract Plant breeding relies on information gathered from field trials to select promising new crop varieties for release to farmers and to develop genomic prediction models that can enhance the efficiency of genetic improvement in future breeding cycles. However, generating the genetic marker data required to apply genomic prediction at the early stages of a breeding program remains costly for many public‐sector breeding programs as well as for many plant breeders operating in developing countries. As the pace of climate change intensifies, the time lag of developing and deploying new crop varieties requires plant breeders to make selection decisions without knowing the future environments those crop varieties will encounter in farmers’ fields. Therefore, both lower cost and higher accuracy methods for prediction of crop performance are essential for creating and maintaining resilient agricultural systems in the latter half of the 21 st century. To address this challenge, we conducted linked yield trials of 752 public maize ( Zea mays ) genotypes in two distinct environments. We developed and trained a phenotypic prediction model to predict yield from manually scored plant traits. The phenotypic prediction approach we employed outperformed genomic prediction in predicting yields in a second environment, with 8.7%–63% higher R 2 and 4%–13% less root mean square error than the genomic prediction. The phenotypic prediction has the potential to be applied to a wider range of breeding programs, including those that lack the resources to genotype large populations, such as programs in the developing world, breeding programs for specialty crops, and public sector programs.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Reporter genes confer new-to-nature ornamental traits in plants
Ornamental plants (trees, shrubs, and herbs) beautify our urban and rural environments, enrich the quality of human life, and represent a vital component of the horticultural industry. The introduction of novel plant varieties and cultivars is critical to the ornamental horticultural industry [1]. To develop ornamental plants with desirable traits, different approaches, such as ploidy manipulation, interspecific hybridization, and physical/chemical mutagenesis, have been used for decades [2, 3]. However, the breeding of new ornamental varieties of trees and shrubs is a time- and labor-consuming process, because these plants may have a long juvenile growth period, large physical size, or altered floral structures, and consequently require long-term observations, large areas for progeny testing, and/or special equipment for pollination and/or seed collection [4].
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Soil Origin and Plant Genotype Modulate Switchgrass Aboveground Productivity and Root Microbiome Assembly
Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is a model perennial grass for bioenergy production that can be productive in agricultural lands that are not suitable for food production. There is growing interest in whether its associated microbiome may be adaptive in low- or no-input cultivation systems. However, the relative impact of plant genotype and soil factors on plant microbiome and biomass are a challenge to decouple. To address this, a common garden greenhouse experiment was carried out using six common switchgrass genotypes, which were each grown in four different marginal soils collected from long-term bioenergy research sites in Michigan and Wisconsin. We characterized the fungal and bacterial root communities with high-throughput amplicon sequencing of the ITS and 16S rDNA markers, and collected phenological plant traits during plant growth, as well as soil chemical traits. At harvest, we measured the total plant aerial dry biomass. Significant differences in richness and Shannon diversity across soils but not between plant genotypes were found. Generalized linear models showed an interaction between soil and genotype for fungal richness but not for bacterial richness. Community structure was also strongly shaped by soil origin and soil origin × plant genotype interactions. Overall, plant genotype effects were significant but low. Random Forest models indicate that important factors impacting switchgrass biomass included NO 3 – , Ca 2+ , PO 4 3– , and microbial biodiversity. We identified 54 fungal and 52 bacterial predictors of plant aerial biomass, which included several operational taxonomic units belonging to Glomeraceae and Rhizobiaceae, fungal and bacterial lineages that are involved in provisioning nutrients to plants.
plant biomass↗
An integrated framework of plant form and function: the belowground perspective
Summary Plant trait variation drives plant function, community composition and ecosystem processes. However, our current understanding of trait variation disproportionately relies on aboveground observations. Here we integrate root traits into the global framework of plant form and function. We developed and tested an overarching conceptual framework that integrates two recently identified root trait gradients with a well‐established aboveground plant trait framework. We confronted our novel framework with published relationships between above‐ and belowground trait analogues and with multivariate analyses of above‐ and belowground traits of 2510 species. Our traits represent the leaf and root conservation gradients (specific leaf area, leaf and root nitrogen concentration, and root tissue density), the root collaboration gradient (root diameter and specific root length) and the plant size gradient (plant height and rooting depth). We found that an integrated, whole‐plant trait space required as much as four axes. The two main axes represented the fast–slow ‘conservation’ gradient on which leaf and fine‐root traits were well aligned, and the ‘collaboration’ gradient in roots. The two additional axes were separate, orthogonal plant size axes for height and rooting depth. This perspective on the multidimensional nature of plant trait variation better encompasses plant function and influence on the surrounding environment.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Assessing Impacts of Plant Stoichiometric Traits on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Accumulation Using the E3SM Land Model
Carbon (C) enters into the terrestrial ecosystems via photosynthesis and cycles through the system together with other essential nutrients (i.e., nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P]). Such a strong coupling of C, N, and P leads to the theoretical prediction that limited nutrient availability will limit photosynthesis rate, plant growth, and future terrestrial C dynamics. However, the lack of reliable information about plant tissue stoichiometric constraints remains a challenge for quantifying nutrient limitations on projected global C cycling. In this study, we harmonized observed plant tissue C:N:P stoichiometry from more than 6,000 plant species with the commonly used plant functional type framework in global land models. Using observed C:N:P stoichiometry and the flexibility of these ratios as emergent plant traits, we show that observationally constrained fixed plant stoichiometry does not improve model estimates of present-day C dynamics compared with unconstrained stoichiometry. However, adopting stoichiometric flexibility significantly improves model predictions of C fluxes and stocks. The 21st century simulations with RCP8.5 CO 2 concentrations show that stoichiometric flexibility, rather than baseline stoichiometric ratios, is the dominant controller of plant productivity and ecosystem C accumulation in modeled responses to CO 2 fertilization. The enhanced nutrient limitations and plant P use efficiency mainly explain this result. This study is consistent with the previous consensus that nutrient availability will limit xfuture land carbon sequestration but challenges the idea that imbalances between C and nutrient supplies and fixed stoichiometry limit future land C sinks. We show here that it is necessary to represent nutrient stoichiometric flexibility in models to accurately project future terrestrial ecosystem carbon sequestration.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Plant litter traits control microbial decomposition and drive soil carbon stabilization
Efforts to manage soils for carbon (C) sequestration remain limited by our understanding of how differences in plant traits and microbial traits mechanistically drive soil organic C (SOC) storage. Addressing this uncertainty is particularly critical in bioenergy agriculture, due to its potential to enhance soil C and provide a C neutral fuel. As such, we examined differences between two contrasting feedstocks, Zea mays (corn) and Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus), in the ability of their litter to form new chemically resistant particulate SOC vs. physically protected mineral associated SOC and used this data to improve the parameterization of a microbial SOC model. We tested a hypothesized conceptual model whereby easy to decompose corn litters drive greater microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) and the formation of more mineral associated SOC over particulate SOC than more complex miscanthus litters. To do this, we performed a soil microcosm experiment where we added 13 C enriched aboveground and belowground litters to soils and traced the fate of the 13 C into microbial respiration and SOC pools. We found that corn litters promoted higher microbial CUE (0.37) than miscanthus litters (0.24). In turn, corn litter formed approximately 50% more mineral associated SOC than miscanthus litters. Similarly, structurally complex root litters promoted a lower CUE and formed less mineral associated SOC than leaf and shoot litters for both crops. When we used our data to parameterize the SOC model, we found that modelling microbial trait differences uniquely allowed the model to capture the fate of litter C in SOC. Collectively, we found a robust link between litter quality, microbial efficiency, and the formation of SOC. This link bridges the empirical uncertainty in how different crops can form new soil C and provides an empirical basis for modelling SOC transformations.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Island influences on plant functional traits and trait–trait associations across species‐ and community‐scales
The island rule predicts gigantism or dwarfism in body size of island species relative to their mainland counterparts. However, whether other functional traits shift and whether trait–trait associations on islands differ between species and community levels remains unclear. We measured 13 carbon- and water-related functional traits in 37 shared tree species across 35 eastern Chinese islands and 66 nearby mainland plots. We examined species-level trait value shifts and associations under the island rule and compared trait associations between species and communities. Most size-related, wood-anatomical, and hydraulic traits shifted on islands, with large values decreasing and small values increasing; yet, their associations remained stable, aligning with the global trait spectrum and trait–trait coevolution. This stability, despite trait value shifts, suggests evolutionary integration of functional strategies. By contrast, island community-scale trait associations diverged from shared species-level patterns and sometimes reversed, such as positive relationships between wood density and resource-acquisitive traits. Community-level trait associations were stronger on islands, likely reflecting constrained environmental filtering and migration limitation. These contrasting patterns suggest that dominant species can restructure trait associations at the community level, with implications for ecosystem functioning and carbon storage, thereby advancing understanding of plant trait strategies in island systems.
Archipelagos↗
Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)
Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantitative genetic-by-soil microbiome interactions in a perennial grass affect functional traits
Plants interact with diverse microbiomes that can impact plant growth and performance. Recent studies highlight the potential beneficial aspects of plant microbiomes, including the possibility that microbes facilitate the process of local adaptation in their host plants. Microbially mediated local adaptation in plants occurs when local host genotypes have higher fitness than foreign genotypes because of their affiliation with locally beneficial microbes. Here, plant adaptation results from genetic interactions of the host with locally beneficial microbes (e.g. host genotype-by-microbiome interactions). We used a recombinant inbred line (RIL) mapping population derived from upland and lowland ecotypes of the diploid C4 perennial bunch grass Panicum hallii to explore quantitative genetic responses to soil microbiomes focusing on functional root and shoot traits involved in ecotypic divergence. We show that the growth and development of ecotypes and their trait divergence depends on soil microbiomes. Moreover, we find that the genetic architecture is modified by soil microbiomes, revealing important plant genotype-by-microbiome interactions for quantitative traits. We detected a number of quantitative trait loci (QTL) that interact with the soil microbiome. Our results highlight the importance of microbial interactions in ecotypic divergence and trait genetic architecture in C4 perennial grasses.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Data driven discovery and quantification of hyperspectral leaf reflectance phenotypes across a maize diversity panel
Abstract Estimates of plant traits derived from hyperspectral reflectance data have the potential to efficiently substitute for traits, which are time or labor intensive to manually score. Typical workflows for estimating plant traits from hyperspectral reflectance data employ supervised classification models that can require substantial ground truth datasets for training. We explore the potential of an unsupervised approach, autoencoders, to extract meaningful traits from plant hyperspectral reflectance data using measurements of the reflectance of 2151 individual wavelengths of light from the leaves of maize ( Zea mays ) plants harvested from 1658 field plots in a replicated field trial. A subset of autoencoder‐derived variables exhibited significant repeatability, indicating that a substantial proportion of the total variance in these variables was explained by difference between maize genotypes, while other autoencoder variables appear to capture variation resulting from changes in leaf reflectance between different batches of data collection. Several of the repeatable latent variables were significantly correlated with other traits scored from the same maize field experiment, including one autoencoder‐derived latent variable (LV8) that predicted plant chlorophyll content modestly better than a supervised model trained on the same data. In at least one case, genome‐wide association study hits for variation in autoencoder‐derived variables were proximal to genes with known or plausible links to leaf phenotypes expected to alter hyperspectral reflectance. In aggregate, these results suggest that an unsupervised, autoencoder‐based approach can identify meaningful and genetically controlled variation in high‐dimensional, high‐throughput phenotyping data and link identified variables back to known plant traits of interest.
Tross, Michael C.↗
The response of stomatal conductance to seasonal drought in tropical forests
Stomata regulate CO2 uptake for photosynthesis and water loss through transpiration. The approaches used to represent stomatal conductance (gs) in models vary. In particular, current understanding of drivers of the variation in a key parameter in those models, the slope parameter (i.e. a measure of intrinsic plant water-use-efficiency), is still limited, particularly in the tropics. Here we collected diurnal measurements of leaf gas exchange and water potential (?leaf), and a suite of plant traits from the upper canopy of 15 tropical trees in two contrasting Panamanian forests throughout the dry season of the 2016 El Niño. The plant traits included wood density, leaf-mass-per-area (LMA), leaf carboxylation capacity (Vc,max25), leaf water content, the degree of isohydry, and predawn ?leaf. We first investigated how the choice of four commonly used leaf-level gs models with and without the inclusion of ?leaf as an additional predictor variable influence the ability to predict gs, and then explored the abiotic (i.e. month, site-month interaction) and biotic (i.e. tree-species-specific characteristics) drivers of slope parameter variation. Our results show that the inclusion of ?leaf did not improve model performance and that the models that represent the response of gs to vapor pressure deficit performed better than corresponding models that respond to relative humidity. Within each gs model, we found large variation in the slope parameter, and this variation was attributable to the biotic driver, rather than abiotic drivers. We further investigated potential relationships between the slope parameter and the six available plant traits mentioned above, and found that only one trait, LMA, had a significant correlation with the slope parameter (R2=0.66, n=15), highlighting a potential path towards improved model parameterization. This study advances understanding of gs dynamics over seasonal drought, and identifies a practical, trait-based approach to improve modeling of carbon and water exchange in tropical forests.
carbon and water exchange, stomatal conductance mo↗
Few-Shot Learning Enables Population-Scale Analysis of Leaf Traits in Populus trichocarpa
Plant phenotyping is typically a time-consuming and expensive endeavor, requiring large groups of researchers to meticulously measure biologically relevant plant traits, and is the main bottleneck in understanding plant adaptation and the genetic architecture underlying complex traits at population scale. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging few-shot learning with convolutional neural networks to segment the leaf body and visible venation of 2,906 Populus trichocarpa leaf images obtained in the field. In contrast to previous methods, our approach (a) does not require experimental or image preprocessing, (b) uses the raw RGB images at full resolution, and (c) requires very few samples for training (e.g., just 8 images for vein segmentation). Traits relating to leaf morphology and vein topology are extracted from the resulting segmentations using traditional open-source image-processing tools, validated using real-world physical measurements, and used to conduct a genome-wide association study to identify genes controlling the traits. In this way, the current work is designed to provide the plant phenotyping community with (a) methods for fast and accurate image-based feature extraction that require minimal training data and (b) a new population-scale dataset, including 68 different leaf phenotypes, for domain scientists and machine learning researchers. All of the few-shot learning code, data, and results are made publicly available.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Arctic Shrub Expansion, Plant Functional Trait Variation, and Effects on Belowground Carbon Cycling (Final Technical Report)
Terrestrial ecosystems are undergoing dramatic changes in response to climate warming, and these changes are expected to feedback to the atmosphere, potentially altering the trajectory of future climate change. Feedbacks from Arctic ecosystems are a major concern because the Arctic is projected to warm significantly in the 21 st century and because >50% of global belowground organic carbon is stored in permafrost and overlying soils. Warming-driven release of this carbon could drastically increase atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and accelerate climate warming. Plant communities are also responding to warming, as evidenced by the widely documented increase in woody-shrub growth and “greening” across much of the Arctic tundra biome. This vegetation shift may offset or amplify warming by altering carbon cycling. The direction and magnitude of shrub effects remain highly uncertain, however, due to limited understanding of the consequences of shrub expansion for belowground carbon cycling and simplification of these relationships in models. The major shrubs expanding in the Arctic (Betula, Salix, and Alnus) vary widely with respect to aboveground and belowground traits (e.g., tissue production and chemistry, rooting depth, microbial symbionts), and may also exhibit substantial intraspecific variation in these traits in response to environmental conditions. Such variation is likely to have profound implications for soil carbon cycling. The overarching goal of this project was to improve process-based understanding of the influence of shrub expansion on carbon cycling to enable improved representation of carbon dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. We investigated how plant functional traits vary among shrub genera, respond to environmental conditions, and affect belowground carbon and nutrient cycling by quantifying relationships among functional traits and biogeochemical cycling along edaphic gradients nested within a climate gradient in the Alaskan tundra. We found consistent differences in leaf and root traits among shrub genera and between shrubs and a widespread sedge species, indicating diverse nutrient acquisition strategies and belowground impacts among different arctic shrubs. We also found striking differences in trait values among individuals within the same species or genera within sites. Soil parameters were more important than climate parameters for predicting size and leaf trait variation, and root trait responses were less dependent on climate overall. For all but one root trait, including parameters representing aboveground traits improved the predictive ability of models. These results demonstrate that tundra shrub traits vary considerably at local scales and soil factors drive this variation, especially belowground. Furthermore, leveraging information about aboveground traits and soil conditions can improve predictions of how belowground traits will respond to climate change. Despite these differences, soil carbon and nitrogen pools in the active layer did not vary among plots dominated by different shrub or sedge genera. Instead, pool sizes generally decreased from warmer to colder sites, consistent with a productivity gradient. Patterns of isotopic N composition indicate that shrubs tighten nitrogen cycling via nitrogen resorption or immobilization of shrub litter. Overall, these results suggest that further identifying the specific shrub genera in the tundra landscape will ultimately provide better predictions of belowground dynamics across the changing arctic. We also performed simulation experiments with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) incorporated in the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework, treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We performed simulations across different types of tundra, including shrub tundra. One key finding was that both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter could vary within the same type of tundra, but in a different geographical location, such as over the climate gradient of shrub tundra described above. We organized a special session at the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America in August 2019 to disseminate our results, refine recommendations for model improvement, and initiate collaborations to implement these recommendations in existing models of tundra carbon dynamics at ecosystem to Earth system scales. Our results support DOE near-term priorities by providing mechanistic insights into the role of vegetation change in the terrestrial carbon cycle in a region that is inadequately represented in Earth system models. Current models reduce the complexity of Arctic vegetation to a small number of plant functional types (PFTs). This approach implicitly assumes that each PFT represents the average ecological function of its constituent species, thus ignoring the effects of trait variation on biogeochemical cycling and potentially leading to large uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of ecosystem feedbacks to climate. By quantifying variation of plant functional traits across broad gradients of climatic and edaphic conditions and elucidating the linkages of such variation with carbon and nutrient cycling, our results illustrate the need and create a foundation for further developing trait-based modeling approaches that allow the traits of PFTs to vary as a function of environmental conditions. These approaches should improve the capacity of simulation models to offer insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics associated with novel plant communities in a rapidly changing Arctic.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗