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DOE OSTI2025

Community civic capacities for meaningful engagement in siting infrastructure for the energy transition

To address the driving forces of climate change and to ensure society has reliable and plentiful energy, considerable amounts of new energy infrastructure will need to be built in scores of communities over the near future. Democratic societies give communities considerable authority, influence, and autonomy on land-use decisions and regulatory policy making. Involving community members and stakeholders in decision making about facility siting and hosting is vital to minimize local opposition. But while there is much written about how to engage communities successfully, there is comparatively little attention given to understanding the civic capacities communities need to be able to participate. This paper reviews literatures on civic capacity and presents a new taxonomy based on six categories: leadership, knowledge, resources, civic engagement, social capital, and culture. It then proposes a systems framework to convey how capacities are developed and employed in collaborative decision making processes about siting and hosting energy facilities. Project sponsors, regulators, stakeholder groups, and communities can use these insights to better prepare and empower communities to participate as equal partners in conversations about energy facility siting.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia

Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

Large-scale capacity expansion models typically rely on estimates of the power transfer limits between modeled zones. Accurate estimation of these interface transfer limits (ITLs) requires modeling the underlying transmission network. Here we expand on a maximum flow optimization method that uses linearized power flow to estimate transfer limits. We apply this method to a data set of the U.S. transmission network to estimate ITLs between U.S. counties. By calculating ITLs using different subsets of the network, we evaluate how the size of the network used in the estimation affects the results. The results show diminishing returns to ITL accuracy after six hops, suggesting that a network subset can reasonably be used to approximate ITLs. The county-level estimates produced in this study will support more spatially resolved capacity expansion modeling and will help inform policy making at local and national levels.

capacity planning↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Visual Analytic Platform for Interactive Validation of Human Mobility Simulations

Human mobility insights guide domain experts in an array of decisions, including critical infrastructure design, disaster response, epidemic modeling, national security, and policy making. Due to the inherent noise and privacy concerns in real-world individual-level mobility data, it is often preferred to leverage simulators that generate synthetic mobility data instead. However, it is critical to inspect and validate the output of such simulators to ensure the synthetic data is aligned with the characteristics of the population and the area of interest known to domain experts. While there exist many quantitative approaches for validating synthetic data, we argue it is also important to also validate such data qualitatively to capture aspects that are known to domain experts but difficult to quantify. In this work, we demonstrate a visual analytic platform that empowers domain experts to interact with their simulation outputs along spatial and temporal dimensions. By augmenting automated techniques and human skills, our visual analytic platform is a step towards interactive capabilities for model steering and quality control of mobility simulators.

Monadjemi, Shayan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Embassy Science Fellowship (Final Report)

Argentina is home to the highest number of professional scientists per capita in South America. How those human and natural (biodiversity, critical minerals, e.g.) resources are utilized has significant repercussions for the security of the Western Hemisphere and should be of significant interest to US foreign policy. As outlined in the US Secretary of State’s recent (25 Jan, 2025) op-ed, the current administration is seeking to reforge ties with Latin America through “partnership and co-operation” after several decades of varying levels of neglect, a palpable sentiment amongst Argentine scientists and government ministers. This presents an opportunity to provide specific guidance on how coordinated direct policy making, bilateral cooperation, and guided investment in those areas benefits Argentina directly as well as US interests in the hemisphere.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Future Energy Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage

Long-duration energy storage is commonly viewed as a key technology for providing flexibility to the grid and broader energy systems over a multidecadal time frame. However, prior work has typically used present-day grid infrastructures to characterize the relationship between the duration and arbitrage value of storage in electricity markets. This study leverages established National Renewable Energy Laboratory grid planning and operations tools, analysis, and data to execute a price-taker model of an energy storage system for several 8760 h price series representative of current and future contiguous United States grid infrastructures with varying shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). We find that the total value of energy storage typically increases with VRE shares, but any increase in the relative value of longer storage durations over time depends on the region and grid mix. Some regions see incremental value increasing notably, up to 20–40 h in 2050, while others do not. The negative effect of lower roundtrip efficiency on value is also found to be scenario-dependent, with the energy value in higher VRE scenarios being less sensitive to roundtrip efficiency and more supportive of longer storage durations. Long-duration storage value and deployment potential are a function of evolving electricity sector infrastructure, markets, and policy, making it critical to consistently revisit potential long-duration storage contributions to the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

The HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2020) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the need of the global and regional atmospheric modelling community of having a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of a high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3.2, an ad-hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, is an update to the HTAP_v3 global mosaic inventory and has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including China, Japan and Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO x , CO, NMVOC, NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , Black Carbon (BC), and Organic Carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° and time intervals of months and years covering the period 2000–2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17086684, Crippa, 2025, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v32, last access: 27 October 2025). The emissions are further disaggregated to 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past two decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policy making, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Ispra (Ital↗

NASA NTRS1971

Communicating the risk

The balance between benefits and risk is discussed from the standpoint of the decision or policy making process. The basic premise of the discussion is that applied technology may be divided into two parts: (1) benefit oriented technology which includes design, development, manufacturing or construction, and operations; and (2) risk or uncertainty technology which includes safety, reliability, quality assurance, test, and maintenance. Whereas the primary emphasis of the discussion is placed on the importance of a balance in the application of these technologies, arguments are presented which indicate that risk technologies lag far behind benefit technologies. In addition, existing conditions and pressures are described which lead to underestimating risk. The importance is stressed of developing a better sense of the advantages that knowledge of risk could provide via the decision making process. It is suggested that by experiment and analysis on the effects of increasing the contribution of risk technologies, a better understanding of their potentiality and limitations would result.

Raymond M. Wilmotte↗

NASA NTRS1984

The aviation safety reporting system

The aviation safety reporting system, an accident reporting system, is presented. The system identifies deficiencies and discrepancies and the data it provides are used for long term identification of problems. Data for planning and policy making are provided. The system offers training in safety education to pilots. Data and information are drawn from the available data bases.

Reynard, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Artificial intelligence - New tools for aerospace project managers

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is currently being used for business-oriented, money-making applications, such as medical diagnosis, computer system configuration, and geological exploration. The present paper has the objective to assess new AI tools and techniques which will be available to assist aerospace managers in the accomplishment of their tasks. A study conducted by Brown and Cheeseman (1983) indicates that AI will be employed in all traditional management areas, taking into account goal setting, decision making, policy formulation, evaluation, planning, budgeting, auditing, personnel management, training, legal affairs, and procurement. Artificial intelligence/expert systems are discussed, giving attention to the three primary areas concerned with intelligent robots, natural language interfaces, and expert systems. Aspects of information retrieval are also considered along with the decision support system, and expert systems for project planning and scheduling.

Moja, D. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

Njoto, Sukrisno↗

NASA NTRS1992

Opinion polls and the US civil space program

An analysis of two public opinion poles that sought to determine NASA's level of support among the American people is presented. One pole models public participation in policy-making as a pyramid. The model provides for three levels of public participation: the attentive public, the interested public, and the non-attentive public. The three groups are discussed in the context of how to best promulgate NASA's mission throughout the American public.

Fries, Sylvia Doughty↗

NASA NTRS1990

Rule induction techniques

Expert System technology is receiving more and more consideration these days when it comes time for selecting an implementation paradigm. As people become educated as to which domains Expert Systems technology can be appropriately utilized and to what extent this capability can be made useful, they will want to extend this ability to encompass greater responsibilities of their everyday routines. Knowledge Acquisition is one of the most time-consuming phases of an Expert System development process. One must extract the essential knowledge from a source by whatever means, and transform this knowledge into a representation that can be demonstrated. Rule Induction is one technique that can be applied to the knowledge acquisition process for certain example-based problems. Spread Sheets and Data Bases for example, may contain columns of information (criteria) to be used in some sort of decision making policy. These criteria could automatically be converted (represented) into production rules that output an appropriate decision dependent upon a given set of criteria. To generalize this concept, we could state that Rule Induction is the process of generating a Knowledge Base from a given set of examples. Through the use of Rule Induction, I will explain how I took information from a database and generated rules encapsulating the information contained within the database.

Young, Gary B.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Remote Sensing and halocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are short-term records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCMs must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. Unfortunately different parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe.

D'Antoni, Hector L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Remote Sensing and Holocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCM's) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are shortterm records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCM's must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. An appropriate timeframe should extend over the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years) when most contemporary climate and environmental processes began. Since its inception in 1916, pollen analysis has successfully reconstructed the paleoecology of the last 10,000 years for many sites around the world, thus providing a powerful time-link between short- and long-term processes in the biosphere. However, pollen analytic results cannot be used in physiological models driven by remotely sensed data. Further, modern ecology and climate data are necessary to calibrate pollen analytical models. These are available for extensive regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly for eastern United States and Canada, and western Europe. In other parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe. This is the case of Patagonia in Argentina where a few weather stations are located close to the Atlantic seaports, fewer stations are in towns located near the eastern Andean foothill, and fewer still are scattered on the extensive Patagonian plateau. This problem became evident after completion of the Argentine-German Program of Palynology (PROPAL), a cooperative effort of National University of Mar del Plata (Argentina) and University Bamberg (Germany) to produce a modern pollen database for the Pampa and Patagonia regions.

DAntoni, Hector↗

NASA NTRS2003

EU Accession and Civil Aviation Regimes: Malta and Cyprus as a Case Study

Aviation deregulation is usually a challenging and demanding task and accession to the European Union requires that all candidate states should harmonize their legislation in the context of the European Common Aviation Area. Malta and Cyprus, the small Mediterranean island-states to join the EU in 2004, will have to abandon any protectionist policies in favour of their flag-carriers and let them survive in a liberal framework. The paper discusses the implications of this regime change for civil aviation in Malta and Cyprus and in addition to the airline industry, it examines the impacts on the complementary tourism sector. Unless carrying capacity limits are understood, the islands may become victims of successful airline liberalisation. The paper concludes by stressing the need for sustainable development and active policy making. Keywords: carrying capacity, Cyprus, air transport deregulation, Malta, tourism

Papatheodorou, Andreas↗

NASA NTRS2005

Space Shuttle Hot Cabin Emergency Responses

Methods: Human thermal tolerance, countermeasures, and thermal model data were reviewed and compared to existing shuttle ECS failure temperature and humidity profiles for each failure mode. Increases in core temperature associated with cognitive impairment was identified, as was metabolic heat generation of crewmembers, temperature monitoring, and communication capabilities after partial power-down and other limiting factors. Orbiter landing strategies and a hydration and salt replacement protocol were developed to put wheels on deck in each failure mode prior to development of significant cognitive impairment or collapse of crewmembers. Thermal tradeoffs for use of the Advanced Crew Escape Suit (ACES), Liquid Cooling Garment, integrated G-suit and Quick Don Mask were examined. candidate solutions involved trade-offs or conflicts with cabin oxygen partial pressure limits, system power-downs to limit heat generation, risks of alternate and emergency landing sites or compromise of Mode V-VIII scenarios. Results: Rehydration and minimized cabin workloads are required in all failure modes. Temperature/humidity profiles increase rapidly in two failure modes, and deorbit is recommended without the ACES, ICU and g-suit. This latter configuration limits several shuttle approach and landing escape modes and requires communication modifications. Additional data requirements were identified and engineering simulations were recommended to develop more current shuttle temperature and humidity profiles. Discussion: After failure of the shuttle ECS, there is insufficient cooling capacity of the ACES to protect crewmembers from rising cabin temperature and humidity. The LCG is inadequate for cabin temperatures above 76 F. Current shuttle future life policy makes it unlikely that major engineering upgrades necessary to address this problem will occur.

Stepaniak, P.↗