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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-equilibrium rate theory for polariton relaxation dynamics

We derive an analytic expression of the non-equilibrium Fermi’s golden rule (NE-FGR) expression for a Holstein–Tavis–Cumming Hamiltonian, a universal model for many molecules collectively coupled to the optical cavity. These NE-FGR expressions capture the full-time-dependent behavior of the rate constant for transitions from polariton states to dark states. The rate is shown to be reduced to the well-known frequency domain-based equilibrium Fermi’s golden rule (E-FGR) expression in the equilibrium and collective limit and is shown to retain the same scaling with the number of sites in non-equilibrium and non-collective cases. We use these NE-FGR to perform population dynamics with a time-non-local and time-local quantum master equation and obtain accurate population dynamics from the initially occupied upper or lower polariton states. Furthermore, NE-FGR significantly improves the accuracy of the population dynamics when starting from the lower polariton compared to the E-FGR theory, highlighting the importance of the non-Markovian behavior and the short-time transient behavior in the transition rate constant.

Chemical dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ecological trade-offs drive phenotypic and genetic differentiation of Arabidopsis thaliana in Europe

Plant diversity is shaped by trade-offs between traits related to competitive ability, propagule dispersal, and stress resistance. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how these trade-offs influence species distribution and population dynamics. In Arabidopsis thaliana , recent genetic analyses revealed a group of cosmopolitan genotypes that successfully recolonized Europe from its center after the last glaciation, excluding older (relict) lineages from the distribution except for their north and south margins. Here, we tested the hypothesis that cosmopolitans expanded due to higher colonization ability, while relicts persisted at the margins due to higher tolerance to competition and/or stress. We compared the phenotypic and genetic differentiation between 71 European genotypes originating from the center, and the south and north margins. We showed that a trade-off between plant fecundity and seed mass shapes the differentiation of A. thaliana in Europe, suggesting that the success of the cosmopolitan groups could be explained by their high dispersal ability. However, at both north and south margins, we found evidence of selection for alleles conferring low dispersal but highly competitive and stress-resistance abilities. This study sheds light on the role of ecological trade-offs as evolutionary drivers of the distribution and dynamics of plant populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapid eco‐phenotypic feedback and the temperature response of biomass dynamics

Biomass dynamics capture information on population dynamics and ecosystem-level processes (e.g., changes in production over time). Understanding how rising temperatures associated with global climate change influence biomass dynamics is thus a pressing issue in ecology. The total biomass of a species depends on its density and its average mass. Consequently, disentangling how biomass dynamics responds to increasingly warm and variable temperatures ultimately depends on understanding how temperature influences both density and mass dynamics. Here, we address this issue by keeping track of experimental microbial populations growing to carrying capacity for 15 days at two different temperatures, and in the presence and absence of temperature variability. We develop a simple mathematical expression to partition the contribution of changes in density and mass to changes in biomass and assess how temperature responses in either one influence biomass shifts. Moreover, we use time-series analysis (Convergent Cross Mapping) to address how temperature and temperature variability influence reciprocal effects of density on mass and vice versa. We show that temperature influences biomass through its effects on density and mass dynamics, which have opposite effects on biomass and can offset each other. We also show that temperature variability influences biomass, but that effect is independent of any effects on density or mass dynamics. Last, we show that reciprocal effects of density and mass shift significantly across temperature regimes, suggesting that rapid and environment-dependent eco-phenotypic dynamics underlie biomass responses. Overall, our results connect temperature effects on population and phenotypic dynamics to explain how biomass responds to temperature regimes, thus shedding light on processes at play in cosmopolitan and abundant microbes as the world experiences increasingly warm and variable temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characteristics of an Introduced Walleye Population with Implications for Suppression

Abstract The management of introduced fishes, including Walleye Sander vitreus, whether for control or enhancement, requires understanding of population dynamics at the invasion front. Walleye recently established in the Pend Oreille basin, Idaho, threaten the existing salmonid-based fish community and associated recreational fishery. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to describe population growth and associated life history characteristics. Walleye were sampled in October of 2011, 2014, and 2017 using a standardized gill netting survey protocol to describe trends in relative abundance and evaluate population dynamics. Relative abundance increased exponentially from 1.4 to 4.3 fish/net over the 6-year monitoring period. This population was characterized by fast somatic growth, robust body condition, and early age at maturity at or near the biological maxima for Walleye. Among the survey years, mean length at age 2 varied for female (359–441 mm) and male (358–426 mm) Walleye and relative weight varied from 91 to 98. The sampled Walleye matured at 1 to 4 years of age, and recruitment became more consistent as abundance increased. These density-dependent metrics suggest that the Walleye population is still at low density relative to carrying capacity. The information that was gained from this study was used to better understand potential risks and guide management decisions related to experimental population suppression that is now underway. Suppression under these conditions must overcome the recruitment capabilities of the population. We conclude that natural mortality is likely regulated by density-dependent processes. Therefore, at current (low) density, fishing mortality may be entirely additive and compensation is unlikely to further complicate management.

Ryan, Robert G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fictitious phase separation in Li layered oxides driven by electro-autocatalysis

Layered oxides widely used as lithium-ion battery electrodes are designed to be cycled under conditions that avoid phase transitions. Although the desired single-phase composition ranges are well established near equilibrium, operando diffraction studies on many-particle porous electrodes have suggested phase separation during delithiation. Notably, the separation is not always observed, and never during lithiation. These anomalies have been attributed to irreversible processes during the first delithiation or reversible concentration-dependent diffusion. However, these explanations are not consistent with all experimental observations such as rate and path dependencies and particle-by-particle lithium concentration changes. Here, we show that the apparent phase separation is a dynamical artefact occurring in a many-particle system driven by autocatalytic electrochemical reactions, that is, an interfacial exchange current that increases with the extent of delithiation. We experimentally validate this population-dynamics model using the single-phase material L ix (Ni 1/3 Mn 1/3 Co 1/3 )O 2 (0.5 < x < 1) and demonstrate generality with other transition-metal compositions. Operando diffraction and nanoscale oxidation-state mapping unambiguously prove that this fictitious phase separation is a repeatable non-equilibrium effect. We quantitatively confirm the theory with multiple-datastream-driven model extraction. More generally, our study experimentally demonstrates the control of ensemble stability by electro-autocatalysis, highlighting the importance of population dynamics in battery electrodes (even non-phase-separating ones).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests’ high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free-air, open-field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer-term sustained warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Juvenile life history diversity is associated with lifetime individual heterogeneity in a migratory fish

Abstract Differences in the life history pathways (LHPs) of juvenile animals are often associated with differences in demographic rates in later life stages. For migratory animals, different LHPs often result in animals from the same population occupying distinct habitats subjected to different environmental drivers. Understanding how demographic rates differ among animals expressing different LHPs may reveal fitness trade‐offs that drive the expression of alternative LHPs and enable better prediction of population dynamics in a changing environment. To understand how demographic outcomes and their relationships with environmental variables differ among animals with different LHPs, we analyzed a long‐term (2006–2021) mark–recapture dataset for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA. Distinct LHPs represented in this population include either remaining in the natal stream until emigrating to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (natal‐reach rearing) or emigrating from the natal stream and rearing in downstream habitats for several months before completing the emigration to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (downstream rearing). We found that downstream‐rearing fish emigrated to the ocean 19 days earlier on average and returned as adults from the ocean at higher rates. We detected a positive correlation between rate of return from the ocean by downstream‐rearing fish and coastal upwelling in their spring of outmigration, whereas for natal‐reach‐rearing fish we detected a positive correlation with sea surface temperature during their first marine summer. Different responses to environmental variability should lead to asynchrony in adult abundance among juvenile LHPs. A higher proportion of downstream‐rearing fish returned at younger ages compared with natal‐reach‐rearing fish, which contributed to variability in age at reproduction and greater mixing across generations. Our results demonstrate how diversity in juvenile LHPs is associated with heterogeneity in demographic rates during subsequent life stages, which can in turn affect variance in aggregate population abundance and response to environmental change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering life history diversity in demographic analyses and provide insights into the effects of life history diversity on population dynamics and trade‐offs that contribute to the maintenance of life history diversity.

Sorel, Mark H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ultrafast molecular frame electronic coherences from lab frame scattering anisotropies

Electronic coherences in molecules are ultrafast charge oscillations on the molecular frame (MF) and their direct observation and separation from electronic population dynamics is challenging. Here we present a valence shell lab frame (LF) scattering method suited to probing electronic coherences in isolated systems. MF electronic coherences lead to LF electronic anisotropies observable by ultrafast angle-resolved scattering. Moment analysis of the LF anisotropy completely separates electronic coherences from population dynamics, demonstrated in excited state NH 3 using ultrafast time-energy-angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy. Overall, this general approach applies equally to attosecond/femtosecond electronic coherences in isolated systems.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

BSSD Performance Metric report: LLNL Soil Microbiome SFA (Q1 2021)

The LLNL “Microbes Persist” Soil Microbiome Scientific Focus Area (SFA) seeks to determine how microbial soil ecophysiology, population dynamics, and microbe-mineral-organic matter interactions regulate the persistence of microbial residues and the formation of soil carbon. Our SFA research program is now four years old; it evolved and benefited from previously-funded BSSD projects in the Firestone (UCB), Banfield (UCB), Sullivan (OSU) and Hungate (NAU) labs. We use stable isotope probing in combination with ‘omics to measure how changing water regimes shape activity of individual microbial populations and ecophysiological traits that affect the fate of microbial and plant C. Using measures of population dynamics and microbiome-mineral interactions, we are working to synthesize both genomescale and ecosystem-scale models of soil organic matter (SOM) turnover, to predict the long-aspired connection between soil microbiomes and fate of soil C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analytic rate theory of polariton relaxation that explains long polariton lifetime

Hybridization of a molecular exciton with a quantized photon creates a polariton. Despite extensive experimental investigations, the apparent lifetime of the exciton–polariton is not well-understood. For this work, we examined the steady-state population dynamics for a Holstein–Tavis–Cumming Hamiltonian to illuminate the long-term polaritonic dynamics and lifetime of the exciton–polariton in an optical cavity. For a realistic description of polariton relaxation, cavity loss and various exciton decay channels are included in the model. We found that in the presence of weak but finite exciton loss, the apparent lifetime of the lower polariton coincides with the out-of-cavity exciton lifetime and is independent of cavity-matter detuning. This is a simple explanation for the experimentally observed lifetimes for exciton polaritons and theoretically justifies the dark state reservoir hypothesis. Furthermore, if the upper polariton is initially populated, the system reaches the steady state very quickly, leading to single-exponential polariton relaxation. Starting from the lower polariton leads to a longer pre-steady-state time period, leading to double-exponential relaxation. Finally, we considered the effect of site orientational disorders and the exciton frequency disorderers. Under the collective limit, the effects of this disorder can be included in Fermi’s golden rule population dynamics without explicit sampling. For the exciton energy disorders, numerical calculations are needed. Our theoretical framework is applicable to interpret exciton–polariton experiments, especially related to the measured apparent lifetime of polaritons.

Chemical dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the proximity to macroscopic failure using local strain populations from dynamic in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks

Predicting the proximity of large-scale dynamic failure is a critical concern in the engineering and geophysical sciences. Here we use evolving contractive, dilatational, and shear strain deformation preceding failure in dynamic X-ray tomography experiments to examine which strain components best predict the proximity to failure. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity to failure using time series of three-dimensional local incremental strain tensor fields acquired in rock deformation experiments under stress conditions of the upper crust. Three-dimensional scans acquired in situ throughout triaxial compression experiments provide a distribution of density contrasts from which we estimate the three-dimensional incremental strain that accumulates between each scan acquisition. Training machine learning models on multiple experiments of six rock types provides suites of feature importance that indicate the predictive power of each feature. Comparing the average importance of groups of features that include information about each strain component quantifies the ability of the contractive, dilatational and shear strain to predict the proximity of macroscopic failure. A total of 24 models of four machine learning algorithms with six rock types indicate that 1) the dilatational strain provides the best predictive power of the strain components, and 2) the intermediate values (25th-75th percentile) of the strain population provide the best predictive power of the statistics of the strain populations. In addition, the success of the predictions of models trained on one rock type and tested on other rock types quantifies the similarities and differences of the precursory strain accumulation process in the six rock types. These similarities suggest the potential existence of a unified theory of brittle rock deformation for a range of rock types.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MISIP: a data standard for the reuse and reproducibility of any stable isotope probing-derived nucleic acid sequence and experiment

DNA/RNA-stable isotope probing (SIP) is a powerful tool to link in situ microbial activity to sequencing data. Every SIP dataset captures distinct information about microbial community metabolism, process rates, and population dynamics, offering valuable insights for a wide range of research questions. Data reuse maximizes the information derived from the labor and resource-intensive SIP approaches. Yet, a review of publicly available SIP sequencing metadata showed that critical information necessary for reproducibility and reuse was often missing. Here, we outline the Minimum Information for any Stable Isotope Probing Sequence (MISIP) according to the Minimum Information for any (x) Sequence (MIxS) framework and include examples of MISIP reporting for common SIP experiments. Our objectives are to expand the capacity of MIxS to accommodate SIP-specific metadata and guide SIP users in metadata collection when planning and reporting an experiment. The MISIP standard requires 5 metadata fields—isotope, isotopolog, isotopolog label, labeling approach, and gradient position—and recommends several fields that represent best practices in acquiring and reporting SIP sequencing data (e.g., gradient density and nucleic acid amount). The standard is intended to be used in concert with other MIxS checklists to comprehensively describe the origin of sequence data, such as for marker genes (MISIP-MIMARKS) or metagenomes (MISIP-MIMS), in combination with metadata required by an environmental extension (e.g., soil). The adoption of the proposed data standard will improve the reuse of any sequence derived from a SIP experiment and, by extension, deepen understanding of in situ biogeochemical processes and microbial ecology.

Simpson, Abigayle↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electronic relaxation dynamics in [Au 25 (SR) 18 ] -1 (R = CH 3 , C 2 H 5 , C 3 H 7 , MPA, PET) thiolate-protected nanoclusters

Here we investigate the excited electron dynamics in [Au 25 (SR) 18 ] -1 (R = CH3, C 2 H 5 , C 3 H 7 , MPA, PET) [MPA = mercaptopropanoic acid, PET = phenylethylthiol] nanoparticles to understand how different ligands affect the excited state dynamics in this system. The population dynamics of the core and higher excited states lying in the energy range 0.00–2.20 eV are studied using a surface hopping method with decoherence correction in a real-time DFT approach. All of the ligated clusters follow a similar trend in decay for the core states (S 1 –S 6 ). The observed time constants are on the picosecond time scale (2–19 ps), which agrees with the experimental time scale, and this study confirms that the time constants observed experimentally could originate from core-to-core transitions and not from core-to-semiring transitions. In the presence of higher excited states, R = H, CH 3 , C 2 H 5 , C 3 H 7 , and PET demonstrate similar relaxations trends whereas R = MPA shows slightly different relaxation of the core states due to a smaller gap between the LUMO+1 and LUMO+2 gap in its electronic structure. The S 1 (HOMO → LUMO) state gives the slowest decay in all ligated clusters, while S 7 has a relatively long decay. Furthermore, separate electron and hole relaxations were performed on the [Au 25 (SCH 3 ) 18 ] -1 nanocluster to understand how independent electron and hole relaxations contribute to the overall relaxation dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic signatures of electronically nonadiabatic coupling in sodium hydride: a rigorous test for the symmetric quasi-classical model applied to realistic, ab initio electronic states in the adiabatic representation

Sodium hydride (NaH) in the gas phase presents a seemingly simple electronic structure making it a potentially tractable system for the detailed investigation of nonadiabatic molecular dynamics from both computational and experimental standpoints. The single vibrational degree of freedom, as well as the strong nonadiabatic coupling that arises from the excited electronic states taking on considerable ionic character, provides a realistic chemical system to test the accuracy of quasi-classical methods to model population dynamics where the results are directly comparable against quantum mechanical benchmarks. Here, using a simulated pump–probe type experiment, this work presents computational predictions of population transfer through the avoided crossings of NaH via symmetric quasi-classical Meyer–Miller (SQC/MM), Ehrenfest, and exact quantum dynamics on realistic, ab initio potential energy surfaces. The main driving force for population transfer arises from the ground vibrational level of the D 1 Σ + adiabatic state that is embedded in the manifold of near-dissociation C 1 Σ + vibrational states. When coupled through a sharply localized first-order derivative coupling most of the population transfers between t = 15 and t = 30 fs depending on the initially excited vibronic wavepacket. While quantum mechanical effects are expected due to the reduced mass of NaH, predictions of the population dynamics from both the SQC/MM and Ehrenfest models perform remarkably well against the quantum dynamics benchmark. Additionally, an analysis of the vibronic structure in the nonadiabatically coupled regime is presented using a variational eigensolver methodology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗