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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Economic and Environmental Analysis to Evaluate the Potential Value of Co-Optima Diesel Bioblendstocks to Petroleum Refiners

The U.S. petroleum refining sector is undergoing a period of historic transformation, catalyzed by the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. Diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks have gained traction, owing to their superior fuel properties and environmental performance as compared to traditional petroleum fuels. This work couples refinery linear programming models with life cycle assessment to quantify the potential economic and environmental benefits, and trade-offs, of blending diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks at petroleum refineries. Linear programming models were developed in Aspen Process Industry Modeling Systems (PIMS) for three representative petroleum refinery configurations of differing complexity. Seven diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks: 4-butoxyheptane, 5-ethyl-4-propylnonane, soy biodiesel, sludge hydrothermal liquefaction diesel, polyoxymethylene ethers, renewable diesel, and hexyl hexanoate, were investigated to identify key fuel properties that influence refineries' economics and to track the effect of adding bioblendstocks on refinery-wide cradle-to-gate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. These analyses considered blending levels from 10 to 30 vol% and fuel demand projections over the period 2040 to 2050. This analysis determines that bioblendstock sulfur content and cetane number are the primary fuel attributes with the potential to provide value to refiners. Life cycle assessment results indicate that the use of diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks can reduce cradle-to-gate refinery GHG emissions by up to ~ 40 % relative to conventional refinery operations when considering carbon uptake in the supply chain of the bioblendstock. Refinery-wide marginal GHG abatement costs range from 120 to 3,600 USD2016/metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent avoided across the scenarios evaluated. Reducing the price of bioblendstocks is identified as a key to their adoption.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY P↗
DOE OSTI2014

Source Term Modeling for Evaluating the Potential Impacts to Groundwater of Fluids Escaping from a Depleted Oil Reservoir Used for Carbon Sequestration

In recent years depleted oil reservoirs have received special interest as carbon storage reservoirs because of their potential to offset costs through collaboration with enhanced oil recovery projects. Modeling is currently being conducted to evaluate potential risks to groundwater associated with leakage of fluids from depleted oil reservoirs used for storage of CO2. Modeling results reported here focused on understanding how toxic organic compounds found in oil will distribute between the various phases within a storage reservoir after introduction of CO2, understanding the migration potential of these compounds, and assessing potential groundwater impacts should leakage occur. Two model scenarios were conducted to evaluate how organic components in oil will distribute among the phases of interest (oil, CO2, and brine). The first case consisted of 50 wt.% oil and 50 wt.% water; the second case was 90 wt.% CO2 and 10 wt.% oil. Several key organic compounds were selected for special attention in this study based upon their occurrence in oil at significant concentrations, relative toxicity, or because they can serve as surrogate compounds for other more highly toxic compounds for which required input data are not available. The organic contaminants of interest (COI) selected for this study were benzene, toluene, naphthalene, phenanthrene, and anthracene. Partitioning of organic compounds between crude oil and supercritical CO2 was modeled using the Peng-Robinson equation of state over temperature and pressure conditions that represent the entire subsurface system (from those relevant to deep geologic carbon storage environments to near surface conditions). Results indicate that for a typical set of oil reservoir conditions (75°C, and 21,520 kPa) negligible amounts of the COI dissolve into the aqueous phase. When CO2 is introduced into the reservoir such that the final composition of the reservoir is 90 wt.% CO2 and 10 wt.% oil, a significant fraction of the oil dissolves into the vapor phase. As the vapor phase moves up through the stratigraphic column, pressures and temperatures decrease, resulting in significant condensation of oil components. The heaviest organic components condense early in this process (at higher pressures and temperatures), while the lighter components tend to remain in the vapor phase until much lower pressures and temperatures are reached. Based on the model assumptions, the final concentrations of COI to reach an aquifer at 1,520 kPa and 25°C were quite significant for benzene and toluene, whereas the concentrations of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons that reach the aquifer were very small. This work demonstrates a methodology that can provide COI source term concentrations in CO2 leaking from a reservoir and entering an overlying aquifer for use in risk assessments.

carbon sequestration, scCO2, crude oil, benzene, B↗
DOE OSTI2018

Data summary for the evaluation of potential surface collapse at the BRISTOL underground nuclear event

This report provides data for the evaluation of potential surface collapse above an underground nuclear event executed in Yucca Flat back in 1991. This work is being done in support of the Source Physics Experiment Program. Safety decisions must be made before a potential surface crater area can be reentered for any work. Our statements on cavity collapse and surface crater formation are provided as input into the safety decision process. They also do not address possible radiation dangers that may be present. LLNL subject matter experts who have been active in the underground testing program at NNSS (formerly NTS) reviewed these data. Both classified and unclassified data are available for review; various amounts of information are accessible, depending on the age of the test. Lack of data can hamper evaluation and introduce uncertainty; we make no attempt to quantify this uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluation of Potential Dose to Off-site Receptors from On-site Removable Contamination - 18521

Calculations used in making corrective action decisions estimate the maximum potential dose to on-site receptors exposed to contamination from nuclear testing activities at U.S. Department of Energy, Environmental Management Nevada Program Soils Activity release sites. At many of these release sites, removable contamination is present at levels that require controls to be in place under Title 10 Code of Federal Regulations Part 835, 'Occupational Radiation Protection.' When significant levels of removable contamination are present at a release site, it may be necessary to evaluate the potential dose to off-site receptors from removable contamination that has the potential to be transported off the contaminated site. The protocols described herein could be used to evaluate the potential dose to off-site receptors to ensure that corrective action decisions consider both on-site and off-site potential receptors. The calculation of estimated dose to a receptor can be accomplished by establishing a scenario that describes the exposure (e.g., time and pathway) of the individual to the radiological contamination and by using the properties of the contaminants (e.g., dose conversion factors). Radiological contamination transported from the site has the potential to expose off-site receptors under a potentially large number of exposure scenarios that cannot be comprehensively defined. However, a scenario was developed to represent a maximally exposed off-site receptor. Because the estimated dose to the maximally exposed off-site receptor based on maximum post-closure release site activity levels is less than the on-site dose decision level, corrective action decisions at the Nevada National Security Site Soils Activity release sites are also protective of potential off-site receptors when significant levels of removable contamination are present. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

Evaluating the Potential of a Laplacian Linear Solver.

A new approach for solving Laplacian linear systems proposed by Kelner et al. involves the random sampling and update of fundamental cycles in a graph. We evaluate the performance of this approach on a variety of real world graphs. We examine di erent ways to choose the set of cycles and their sequence of updates with the goal of providing more exibility and potential parallelism. We propose a parallel model of the Kelner et al. method for evaluating potential parallelism concerned with minimizing the span of edges updated at every iteration. We provide experimental results comparing the potential parallelism of the fundamental cycle basis and the extended basis. Our preliminary experiments show that choosing a non-fundamental set of cycles can save signi cant work compared to a fundamental cycle basis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Evaluating the Potential for Marine and Hydrokinetic Devices to Act as Artificial Reefs or Fish Aggregating Devices. Based on Analysis of Surrogates in Tropical, Subtropical, and Temperate U.S. West Coast and Hawaiian Coastal Waters

Wave energy converters (WECs) and tidal energy converters (TECs) are only beginning to be deployed along the U.S. West Coast and in Hawai‘i, and a better understanding of their ecological effects on fish, particularly on special-status fish (e.g., threatened and endangered) is needed to facilitate project design and environmental permitting. The structures of WECs and TECs placed on to the seabed, such as anchors and foundations, may function as artificial reefs that attract reef-associated fishes, while the midwater and surface structures, such as mooring lines, buoys, and wave or tidal power devices, may function as fish aggregating devices (FADs), forming the nuclei for groups of fishes. Little is known about the potential for WECs and TECs to function as artificial reefs and FADs in coastal waters of the U.S. West Coast and Hawai‘i. We evaluated these potential ecological interactions by reviewing relevant information about fish associations with surrogate structures, such as artificial reefs, natural reefs, kelps, floating debris, oil and gas platforms, marine debris, anchored FADs deployed to enhance fishing opportunities, net-cages used for mariculture, and piers and docks. Based on our review, we postulate that the structures of WECs and TECs placed on or near the seabed in coastal waters of the U.S. West Coast and Hawai‘i likely will function as small-scale artificial reefs and attract potentially high densities of reef-associated fishes (including special-status rockfish species [Sebastes spp.] along the mainland), and that the midwater and surface structures of WECs placed in the tropical waters of Hawai‘i likely will function as de facto FADs with species assemblages varying by distance from shore and deployment depth. Along the U.S. West Coast, frequent associations with midwater and surface structures may be less likely: juvenile, semipelagic, kelp-associated rockfishes may occur at midwater and surface structures of WECs in coastal waters of southern California to Washington, and occasional, seasonal, or transitory associations of coastal pelagic fishes such as jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus) may also occur at WECs in these waters. Importantly, our review indicated that negative effects of WEC structures on special-status fish species, such as increased predation of juvenile salmonids or rockfishes, are not likely. In addition, WECs installed in coastal California, especially in southern California waters, have the potential to attract high densities of reef-associated fishes and may even contribute to rockfish productivity, if fish respond to the WECs similarly to oil and gas platforms, which have some of the highest secondary production per unit area of seafloor of any marine habitat studied globally (Claisse et al. 2014). We encountered some information gaps, owing to the paucity or lack, in key locations, of comparable surrogate structures in which fish assemblages and ecological interactions were studied. TECs are most likely to be used in the Puget Sound area, but suitable surrogates are lacking there. However, in similarly cold-temperate waters of Europe and Maine, benthopelagic fish occurred around tidal turbines during lower tidal velocities, and this type of interaction may be expected by similar species at TECs in Puget Sound. To address information gaps in the near term, such as whether WECs would function as FADs in temperate waters, studies of navigation buoys using hydroacoustics are recommended.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-547: Modeling Biological Response to Proton Irradiation and Evaluating Its Potential Clinical Consequences

Purpose: In addition to physical uncertainties, proton therapy may also be associated with biologic uncertainties. Currently a generic RBE value of 1.1 is used for treatment planning. In this work the effects of variable RBE, in comparison to a fixed RBE, were evaluated by calculating the effective dose for proton treatments. Methods: The repair misrepair fixation (RMF) model was used to calculate variable proton RBEs. The RBE weighted spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) dose in water phantom was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and compared to 1.1 weighted SOBP dose. A head and neck proton treatment was used to evaluate the potential effects, by comparing the head and neck treatment plan computed with a commercial treatment planning system that incorporates fixed RBE of 1.1 and a Monte Carlo treatment planning system that incorporates variable RBE. Results: RBE calculations along the depth of SOBP showed that the RBE at the entrance is approximately 1 and reaches 1.1 near the center of the SOBP. However, in distal regions the RBE rises to higher values (up to 3.5 depending on the cell type). Comparison of commercial treatment plans using a fixed RBE of 1.1 and Monte Carlo using variable RBE showed noticeable differences in the effective dose distributions. Conclusion: The comparison of the treatment planning with fixed and variable RBE shows that using commercial treatment planning systems that incorporate fixed RBE (1.1) could Result in overestimation of the effective dose to part of head and neck target volumes, while underestimating the effective dose to the normal tissue beyond the tumor. The accurate variable RBE as a function of proton beam energy in patient should be incorporated in treatment planning to improve the accuracy of effective dose calculation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the potential for bird‐habitat models to support biodiversity‐friendly urban planning

Abstract Urban expansion poses a major threat to wildlife populations. Biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes could deliver benefits for both wildlife and people, by incorporating conservation and ecosystem services objectives. Well‐designed urban developments could also soften the ecological impacts of urbanization. However, delivering urban landscapes that integrate biodiversity requirements effectively remains challenging. Ecological models, designed to predict wildlife population responses to alternative urban designs, could prove effective in supporting the creation of biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes. Here, we combine national‐scale bird abundance data with high resolution, spatially explicit habitat data to characterize relationships between bird densities and urban landscape form in Britain. From these analyses and cross validation, we evaluate the potential for well‐parameterized, species‐specific models to be used to predict bird densities in novel or modified urban areas. Our analyses indicate that responses of bird abundance to urban habitat are species‐specific and complex, with few variables consistently affecting a large proportion of species. However, contiguous areas of greenspace within urban sites are preferential for accommodating breeding birds, compared to a more fragmented arrangement of multiple, small greenspace patches. In combination, the bird‐habitat relationships identified could successfully predict observed variation in abundance for most bird species considered. Further evaluation of habitat descriptor variables, spatial scales of species' habitat use and analytical modelling approaches may be needed to improve the predictive ability of bird‐habitat models for certain species, particularly waterbirds and those observed less frequently in urban areas. Synthesis and applications . We modelled breeding bird abundance in built‐up areas with respect to the characteristics and contexts of urban environments. While most variables were important for multiple species, responses overall were species‐specific, so simple assemblage metrics, like diversity, will not describe the variation in bird communities well. However, the results illustrate the potential of an evidence‐based, spatially explicit evaluation of urban development impacts on biodiversity, by predicting the consequences for bird numbers. Subject to verification of predictive ability, practitioners can apply the models to compare, for example, land‐sparing and sharing within developments, or to quantify the biodiversity requirements for effective offsetting. This would be facilitated by incorporation into an online tool allowing user‐determined input scenarios.

Plummer, Kate E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transfer and Flushing Evaluation for Potential Precipitated Solids in the 241-AP-106 to EMF Transfer Pipeline for DFLAW

Waste transfer pipeline flushing is necessary to maintain pipeline performance, but added flush fluid increases the nuclear waste inventory. During the Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) mission, waste transfer lines from the Interim Low-Activity Waste Storage Tank (i.e., 241-AP-106) to the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Facility must have the capability of being flushed to prevent accumulation of solids and to mitigate corrosion concerns. Operational experience at Hanford has shown that the solids precipitation occurs during processing operations from dilute Hanford liquids. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was requested to evaluate the potential precipitated solid particle transport and flushing operational capabilities of the AP-106 through the Effluent Management Facility (EMF) low-point drain LAW feed pipeline. The evaluation results do not provide operational requirements, but rather provide a scoping basis for understanding the potential operational significance of solids precipitation in the pipeline. The salt and aluminum phase solids most likely to precipitate from the LAW feeds during cooling, evaporation, or mixing have particle densities that are estimated to range from 1.62 to 2.78 g/mL and a spherical particle size range of 8 to 2100 μm, depending on the solid phase considered. Application of the method to calculate the critical deposition velocity required by TFC-ENG-STD-26 at conservatively bounding estimates for the solids concentrations demonstrates that potentially precipitated solids may deposit on the bottom of the transfer pipe invert at the lower LAW feed pipeline flow rate, but the upper LAW feed pipeline flow rate will likely prevent deposition. The system pressure limit for the AP-106 through the EMF low-point drain LAW feed pipeline likely exceeds any pressure loss at a calculated critical deposition velocity even for the most adverse potential precipitated solid. However, should solids settle as a result of no-flow conditions, the flow capabilities of the AP-106 through the EMF low-point drain LAW feed pipeline are shown, based on the available literature, to be potentially inadequate for effective flushing operations to remove solids, even at solids concentrations below the maximum specified for LAW feed. Thus, stepwise solids accumulations over multiple transfers may be an issue, and eventual line plugging may occur. Further inadequacies may potentially be realized should the cohesive nature of certain precipitates be accounted for.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluation of potential internal target volume of liver tumors using cine-MRI

Purpose: Four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) is widely used for evaluating moving tumors, including lung and liver cancers. For patients with unstable respiration, however, the 4DCT may not visualize tumor motion properly. High-speed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences (cine-MRI) permit direct visualization of respiratory motion of liver tumors without considering radiation dose exposure to patients. Here, the authors demonstrated a technique for evaluating internal target volume (ITV) with consideration of respiratory variation using cine-MRI. Methods: The authors retrospectively evaluated six patients who received stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) to hepatocellular carcinoma. Before acquiring planning CT, sagittal and coronal cine-MRI images were acquired for 30 s with a frame rate of 2 frames/s. The patient immobilization was conducted under the same condition as SBRT. Planning CT images were then acquired within 15 min from cine-MRI image acquisitions, followed by a 4DCT scan. To calculate tumor motion, the motion vectors between two continuous frames of cine-MRI images were calculated for each frame using the pyramidal Lucas–Kanade method. The target contour was delineated on one frame, and each vertex of the contour was shifted and copied onto the following frame using neighboring motion vectors. 3D trajectory data were generated with the centroid of the contours on sagittal and coronal images. To evaluate the accuracy of the tracking method, the motion of clearly visible blood vessel was analyzed with the motion tracking and manual detection techniques. The target volume delineated on the 50% (end-exhale) phase of 4DCT was translated with the trajectory data, and the distribution of the occupancy probability of target volume was calculated as potential ITV (ITV {sub Potential}). The concordance between ITV {sub Potential} and ITV estimated with 4DCT (ITV {sub 4DCT}) was evaluated using the Dice’s similarity coefficient (DSC). Results: The distance between blood vessel positions determined with motion tracking and manual detection was analyzed. The mean and SD of the distance were less than 0.80 and 0.52 mm, respectively. The maximum ranges of tumor motion on cine-MRI were 2.4 ± 1.4 mm (range, 1.0–5.0 mm), 4.4 ± 3.3 mm (range, 0.8–9.4 mm), and 14.7 ± 5.9 mm (range, 7.4–23.4 mm) in lateral, anterior–posterior, and superior–inferior directions, respectively. The ranges in the superior–inferior direction were larger than those estimated with 4DCT images for all patients. The volume of ITV {sub Potential} was 160.3% ± 13.5% (range, 142.0%–179.2%) of the ITV {sub 4DCT}. The maximum DSC values were observed when the cutoff value of 24.7% ± 4.0% (range, 20%–29%) was applied. Conclusions: The authors demonstrated a novel method of calculating 3D motion and ITV {sub Potential} of liver cancer using orthogonal cine-MRI. Their method achieved accurate calculation of the respiratory motion of moving structures. Individual evaluation of the ITV {sub Potential} will aid in improving respiration management and treatment planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identification and Clinical Evaluation of Potential Biomarkers for Breast Cancer Resistance Protein ( BCRP / ABCG2 )

Clinical inhibition and genetic variation of the Breast Cancer Resistance Protein (BCRP/ABCG2) efflux transporter can significantly influence drug exposure, highlighting the need for reliable BCRP functional biomarkers. This study aimed to identify and evaluate biomarkers predictive of BCRP function in humans. A comprehensive analysis of metabolomic genome‐wide association studies (mGWAS) was conducted to discover potential BCRP biomarkers, followed by evaluation inin vitrotransporter assays and a clinical drug–drug interaction (DDI) study. Across multiple mGWAS datasets, plasma concentrations of three herbicide derivatives—4‐hydroxychlorothalonil (4HC), 3‐bromo‐5‐chloro‐2,6‐dihydroxybenzoic acid (BCDBA), and 3,5‐dichloro‐2,6‐dihydroxybenzoic acid (DCDBA)—were significantly elevated (P < 5E‐8) in individuals carrying reduced functionABCG2polymorphisms. These compounds were confirmed as novel BCRP substrates via transporter uptake assays and selected for clinical evaluation alongside riboflavin, a known BCRP substrate and potential BCRP biomarker. In a DDI study with 11 healthy subjects, eltrombopag, a BCRP inhibitor, increased rosuvastatin concentrations by approximately twofold (P = 0.002). No significant changes in the plasma concentrations of organic anion transporting polypeptide 1B (OATP1B) biomarkers (CP‐I and CP‐III) or potential BCRP biomarkers (4HC, BCDBA, DCDBA, or riboflavin) were observed. Notably, two subjects were heterozygous carriers for theABCG2p.Q141K variant and exhibited significantly higher baseline concentrations of 4HC (P = 0.004) and BCDBA (P = 0.0003), consistent with reduced BCRP function. These findings suggest that 4HC and BCDBA are promising biomarkers for baseline BCRP function in specific populations, such as those harboring reduced function genetic polymorphisms, but do not appear suitable for detecting acute BCRP inhibition.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2017

Resilient Solar and Storage Roadmap

Resilience to natural disasters is imperative for safe, economically productive cities. In the immediate aftermath of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster, one key element of resilience is continued operation of shelters and critical emergency management facilities. Operation of these facilities depends on reliable emergency power. Traditional emergency power systems use diesel generators with storage tanks, which provide power for only a few days in the absence of the electric or gas grid. However, a recent study has shown that gas and electric networks can require days or weeks to recover from a disaster, leaving facilities with generators at risk of running out of fuel. This has already been experienced in New York City after Hurricane Sandy where a combination of lengthy outages and high flood waters compromised the traditional diesel storage and generator backup infrastructure at hospitals and shelters. With the risk of natural disasters increasing due to climate change, we must turn to more resilient solutions for providing backup power to shelters, medical centers, and emergency operations centers. From 2015 to 2017, the City and County of San Francisco Solar and Storage for Resilience Project examined the use of microgrids and stand-alone solar electric generation with battery storage to provide resilient post-disaster power to critical facilities. The project evaluated 1,263 potential congregation and shelter sites across the city, 67 of which were identified as shelter sites with power requirements and opportunities to develop resilient infrastructure through solar and storage. Site visits were conducted for 18 of these buildings, spanning all 11 supervisor districts in San Francisco and a range of normal and emergency use types. The project team used observations from these site visits to create representative emergency power profiles for all 67 shelters in San Francisco. Using these profiles, the team found that 8.2 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic panels and 12.9 MW of battery storage would be required to provide resilient backup power for San Francisco’s shelters following a disaster. Given the high capital cost of deploying this large resource, the project team investigated various financing options — a public-private partnership was found to be a viable pathway for financing resilient solar and storage. Given the added benefit of energy cost savings in normal operation, a public-private partnership financing model would save the City and County of San Francisco 6% over a traditional design-bid-build approach over a 20-year portfolio lifetime. This roadmap documents the project’s steps of identifying critical facilities, surveying power requirements, assessing renewable potential, evaluating financing options to develop the solar and storage systems for resiliency, and modeling individual sites for solar and storage installation. This roadmap also examines the challenges critical facilities face in providing resilient power, such as key technical, political, and financing barriers, as well as the opportunities and policy recommendations to further advance resilient solar and storage development in San Francisco. While this report focuses on a detailed study of San Francisco, the methods and outcomes are applicable to any city or town.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Updated evaluation of potential ultralow Q -value β -decay candidates

“Ultralow” Q-value β decays are referred to as such due to their low decay energies of less than ≈1 keV. Such a low energy decay is possible when the parent nucleus decays to an excited state in the daughter, with an energy close to that of the Q value. These decays are of interest as potential new candidates for neutrino mass determination experiments and as a testing ground for studies of atomic interference effects in the nuclear decay process. In this paper, we provide an updated evaluation of atomic mass data and nuclear energy-level data to identify potential ultralow Q-value β decay candidates. For many of these candidates, more precise and accurate atomic mass data is needed to determine if the Q value of the potential ultralow decay branch is energetically allowed and in fact ultralow. Furthermore, the relevant precise atomic mass measurements can be achieved via Penning trap mass spectrometry.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs

This paper evaluates potential changes in the power system associated with sustained growth in wind generation in the United States to 35% of end-use demand by 2050; Wiser et al. (2016) evaluate societal benefits and other impacts for this same scenario. Under reference or central conditions, the analysis finds cumulative wind capacity of 404 gigawatts (GW) would be required to reach this level and drive 2050 incremental electricity rate and cumulative electric sector savings of 2% and 3% respectively, relative to a scenario with no new wind capacity additions. Greater savings are estimated under higher fossil fuel costs or with greater advancements in wind technologies. Conversely, incremental costs are found when fossil fuel costs are lower than central assumptions or wind technology improvements are more-limited. Through 2030, the primary generation sources displaced by new wind capacity include natural gas and coal-fired generation. By 2050, wind could displace other renewables. Incremental new transmission infrastructure totaling 29 million megawatt-miles is estimated to be needed by 2050. In conjunction with related societal benefits, this work demonstrates that 35% wind energy by 2050 is plausible, could support enduring benefits, and could result in long-term consumer savings, if nearer-term (pre-2030) cost barriers are overcome; at the same time, these opportunities are not anticipated to be realized in their full form under 'business-as-usual' conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2019

Development of a Preliminary Performance Assessment to Support Single-Shell Tank Waste Retrieval - 19446

A preliminary Performance Assessment (PA) of Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area A-AX (WMA A-AX) located at DoE's Hanford Site in southeastern Washington is being conducted to satisfy the requirements of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO), as well as other Federal and State requirements of closure plans and permits. The WMA A-AX PA effort is assessing the fate, transport, and impacts of radionuclides and hazardous chemicals within residual wastes left in tanks, ancillary equipment, and facilities in their assumed closed configuration, and the subsequent risks to humans into the far future. WMA A-AX includes the 241-A Tank Farm (A Farm), the 241-AX Tank Farm (AX Farm), and the ancillary equipment associated with each Farm. There are six underground SSTs in A Farm, and four underground SSTs in AX Farm. Each of these SSTs have a storage capacity of 1,000,000 gallons. A complex waste transfer system of ancillary equipment supported the transfer and storage of waste within WMA A-AX SSTs. This ancillary equipment includes transfer lines, catch tanks, diversion boxes, vaults, valve pits, and other miscellaneous structures. This paper emphasizes the development of the PA effort focused on radiological impacts to meet the requirements for a closure authorization under DOE Order 435.1. Lessons learned from retrieval and development of a recently completed PA of the nearby Waste Management Area C (WMA C) led to the decision to develop a preliminary PA for WMA A-AX prior to initiation of retrieval efforts so that a site-specific risk management capability could be available to support anticipated retrieval decisions. The technical approach for the PA analysis includes developing both a process-level model using site-specific hydrogeological data, as well as a system-level model. The system model is being developed to facilitate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses being conducted in the PA effort. Preliminary results of the DOE Order 435.1 PA are evaluating potential impacts to the groundwater and air pathways to determine radiation exposure once radionuclides are released to the environment from residual waste after closure of the tank farm. To meet other analysis requirements in DOE Order 435.1, the PA effort must also evaluate potential radiological impacts from inadvertent intruder scenarios into the closed WMA A-AX facility. The results of the PA evaluation will be compared to performance objectives and measures in the DOE Order 435.1 to support retrieval and eventual closure decisions at WMA A-AX. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential for Tidal Phase Diversity to Produce Smoother Power Profiles

Although tidal energy conversion technologies are not yet commercially available or cost-competitive with other renewable energy technologies like wind turbines and solar panels, tides are a highly predictable resource. Tidal energy’s predictability indicates that the resource could introduce less volatility into balancing the electric grid when compared to other renewables, a fundamentally desirable attribute for the electric system. More specifically, tidal energy resources are unique in that they have the potential to produce relatively smoother power profiles over time through aggregation. In order to generate smooth power profiles from tidal resources, sufficient complexity within the timing of tides is necessary within electrical proximity. This study evaluates the concept of aggregating diverse tides for the purpose of reducing periods of no and low energy production and creating smoother power profiles in regions around Alaska and Washington by calculating cross-correlations of tidal current velocity time series. Ultimately, study results show limited potential to exploit the resources for this purpose and describe the institutional mechanisms necessary to realize the benefits in practice.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗