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DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Operator Workflows for Real-Time Reliability Studies: A Review of Control Room Practices and Naturalistic Decision Making

This report provides an overview of real-time reliability study tools and their use by power system operators in the control room environment. After introducing some of the nuances of the control room environment and the differences in perspectives between power system engineers and operators, the roles and responsibilities of key entities involved in RTCA workflows are introduced. These are specifically the transmission system operator (TOP) and reliability coordinator (RC), which are required to run tools such as real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) as part of a real-time reliability assessment every 30 minutes, as dictated by a series of standards issued by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The process by which power systems operators operate the grid is discussed in terms of naturalistic decision making (NDM) and the recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) model. This cognitive model describe how experts working in high-risk, high-stress environments make safety-critical decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. For power system operators, the mental simulations involved in the traditional RPD model are supplemented by physics-based simulations using numerical tools, such as RTCA, to improve situational awareness and effectiveness of control actions. Next, a generic workflow is introduced to describe operator decision making for running RTCA tools and responding to system violations on a pre-contingent basis. The types of analysis performed and control actions chosen by power system operators are described in detail. The overall high-level workflow is then expanded in subsequent sections, with special attention given to high-voltage violations, low-voltage violations, and thermal overloads. Each type of violation is described in detail, with explanations of common causes, impacts on equipment and customers, and mitigation strategies. An additional workflow diagram is provided for each type of violation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Look-ahead Contingency Analysis Integration with Commercial Tool and Practical Data

This paper presents an initial effort of integrating a smart sampling-based probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm with General Electric (GE) Grid Solutions’ commercial energy management system (EMS) tool as a proof-of-concept for a seamless research tool integration using real world large-scale grid data. With the increasing impact of random forces such as variable generation and load, their stochastic behaviors cannot be ignored. However, the current practices are still dominated by deterministic tools. They are becoming increasingly inadequate for the future grid. The developed look-ahead contingency analysis algorithm incorporates forecast errors of variable energy and load to address the challenges brought by the increasing uncertainty of power system. The algorithm can reveal the potential violations caused by the variance of variable energy and load that are not normally detected by traditional deterministic approaches. To test its performance under practical environments ( real data with real commercial tool), significant efforts have been made to prepare test cases, modify GE EMS tool, and adapt an extreme value distribution algorithm to analyze the GE EMS’s violation-only outputs. The test results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed algorithm as new transformer violations that were not previously detected have been identified. This performance provides better situational awareness to engineers for their decision-making process under uncertainty. Moreover, with the discussion of computational performance and future work, this paper has shown a clear path for integrating the probabilistic algorithm with commercial tools to make us better equipped for the changing power system.

Modeling and simulation of power systems, constrai↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Strength Analysis for Integrating 30 GW of Offshore Wind Generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection

Offshore wind is a key player in the transition to a decarbonized electric gird, and the United States has set ambitious goals of integrating 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. To facilitate this integration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are conducting the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study to assess transmission solutions. To achieve the 110-GW target by 2050, meticulous planning for network expansion and resource allocation is essential; however, meeting the 2030 goals requires integrating offshore wind power with minimal system upgrades, thus necessitating a careful study of grid strength and stability. The study team developed the Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (ASSET) to assess system strength under various operating conditions and contingencies, focusing on the proposed integration of 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030. In this paper, we provide a summary of key features of the ASSET software and results of the grid strength analysis for integrating 30 GW of offshore wind generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection.

Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (AS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Coordination of Networked Microgrids for Voltage Support in Bulk Power Grids

The increasing deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) and microgrids (MGs) in power distribution systems has enabled the adjustment of reactive power consumption as seen at the substation, which can be used to provide voltage support for the bulk power system (BPS). Leveraging this new capability will provide greater resiliency to the power system as a whole. Here, the goal of this paper is to develop and compare three different algorithms, namely distributed optimal power flow, distributed consensus algorithm, and fully decentralized collaborative autonomy for unbalanced distribution systems for microgrid coordination. These algorithms use networked MGs to support the BPS voltage when a contingency at the bulk grid results in abnormally low voltages, which may be a precursor to voltage collapse. Our comparative analysis includes both qualitative and quantitative assessments of the three algorithms and a discussion of the trade-offs between the decentralized and distributed methods in normal and disrupted conditions. Each algorithm was evaluated on the modified IEEE 13-bus system and a real power distribution system at Chattanooga, Tennessee, that encompasses more than 4500 buses. Each algorithms excels differently and may be suited for different scenarios depending on the condition, operations, and priorities of the power and communication systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resilience Enhancements through Deep Learning Yields

This report documents the Resilience Enhancements through Deep Learning Yields (REDLY) project, a three-year effort to improve electrical grid resilience by developing scalable methods for system operators to protect the grid against threats leading to interrupted service or physical damage. The computational complexity and uncertain nature of current real-world contingency analysis presents significant barriers to automated, real-time monitoring. While there has been a significant push to explore the use of accurate, high-performance machine learning (ML) model surrogates to address this gap, their reliability is unclear when deployed in high-consequence applications such as power grid systems. Contemporary optimization techniques used to validate surrogate performance can exploit ML model prediction errors, which necessitates the verification of worst-case performance for the models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design, Deployment, and Characterization of the World’s First Flexible Large Power Transformer

GE Research and its partner Prolec GE have designed, built and deployed in the field the world’s first flexible power transformer. The flexible power transformer is a transmission class 3-phase autotransformer configurable in impedance and in voltage which allows it to serve as a universal spare for multiple units in a given fleet. However, the key innovation in this new concept is the online adjustable leakage impedance which allows the transformer to change its impedance without interrupting the transmission line operation. The flexible power transformer can be designed with up to three low voltage transmission class ratings and up to 12 impedance values changeable both online and offline. This report provides an overview of the design, manufacturing, testing, and commissioning of the 165kV, 60MVA prototype built including the results of the field performance validation tests. The prototype was specified in collaboration with Cooperative Energy, the utility host. It was designed and tested in the factory according to IEEE standard C57.12.00 and followed all protocols for transportation, installation, and commissioning of a power transformer. In addition to the prototype, a flexible protection system capable of automatically adjusting its settings upon the transformer impedance was also developed and deployed in the for testing and validation. On September 3, 2021 the prototype was energized in Cooperative Energy’s substation in Columbia, Mississippi to become the world’s first flexible power transformer in operation. Its performances and impact on the grid operation were demonstrated through different field tests. Results obtained confirm that the impedance of the flexible transformer can be varied under load through its full range, from 4.3% to 9.3%, without adverse impacts on the line operation, the protection system, the transformer stability and health condition. Results also proved that the flexible transformer is very effective in controlling power transfer through the line or load sharing between units operating in parallel. Indeed, it was proven that higher impedances decrease the thruput power of the transformer while lower impedances increase it. Up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA. It was also possible to demonstrate that the variation of the transformer impedance has no effect on the circulating current between units in parallel, except a minor transient during the impedance change. It was also proven that the flexible protection relay can update its protection settings automatically when the impedance change was detected. The prototype has operated continuously for more than 12 months now with a peak load exceeding 50MVA corresponding to >80% of its ONAN power rating. No alarm, trip or sign of failure has been reported by the utility. In addition to the development and deployment of the flexible transformer prototype, investigations were carried out on new nanodielectric fluids to replace the mineral oil used in power transformers with the goal of reducing their footprint and weight. The key parameters that were targeted for improvement included the breakdown voltage to reduce clearances between windings and tank hence the footprint; viscosity and thermal conductivity to increase the cooling efficiency and therefore to reduce the winding material. Several nanodielectric mixtures with mineral oil including with alumina (Al2O3), titania (TiO2) and Borum Nitrate (BN) with different surfactants have been analyzed and tested. Unfortunately, despite encouraging results no nanofluid candidate has been found viable to replace mineral oil. With the formulations tested, breakdown voltages are generally similar to mineral oil at lower particle contents and worse at higher particle contents. Viscosity appreciably increased at particles concertation over 2 wt% and thermal conductivity increased slightly at 5wt% and appears to be 10-15% higher at 10 wt% particle content. It is recommended to continue investigations to find solutions that can help increase the power density of future flexible power transformers. Flexible power transformers can significantly help the future power grid by providing more flexibility and resiliency. Indeed, by providing voltage and impedance flexibility, flexible power transformers reduce the need for multiple spares, hence inventory costs for utilities. With their online controllable impedance, they can provide support to the grid and help manage short-circuit currents, power flow, line congestion, and grid stability which will become more important with higher penetrations of intermittent renewable resources. During the field validation tests, it was demonstrated that up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA when the transformer impedance was varied from its minimum to its maximum range. Also, with the impedance range, the short-circuit currents could be reduced by up to 38% at the load side of the transformer. With its controllable impedance, flexible transformers can be used in future strategies of grid resilience to help better prepare the grid to face forecasted severe events including storms, heat waves and contingencies. The flexible power transformers can also find role in other applications including high voltage transmission cables such as offshore wind farms where solutions for energizing the cables and managing the reactive power are of critical importance. The designed flexible power transformer is now fully validated and ready for commercialization. Further analysis on the benefits of flexible power transformers for grid stability and short-circuit management including current limiting capability, reclosure and line restoration, control of inrush current, sizing of flexible AC components (FACTS) would help its rapid adoption by the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Individual and Collective Strategies to Limit the Impacts of Large Power Outages of Long Duration

As modern society becomes ever more dependent on the availability of electric power, the costs that could arise from individual and social vulnerability to large outages of long duration (LLD-outages) increases. During such an outage, even a small amount of power would be very valuable. Here, this article compares individual and collective strategies for providing limited amounts of electric power to residential customers in a hypothetical New England community during a large electric power outage of long duration. We develop estimates of the emergency load required for survival and assess the cost of strategies to address outages that last 5, 10, and 20 days in either winter or summer. We find that the cost of collective solutions could be as much as 10 to 40 times less than individual solutions (less than $2 per month per home). However, collective solutions would require community-wide coordination, and if local distribution system lines are destroyed, only individual back-up systems could provide contingency power until those lines are repaired. Costs might be reduced if more robust distributed generation were employed that could be operated continuously with the ability to sell power back to the grid. Our cost-effectiveness analysis only assesses what could be done, developing estimates of preparedness cost. A decision about what should be done would require additional input from a range of stakeholders as well as some form of analytical deliberative process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation and Postmortem Analysis of Angeles Forest Disturbance Event

Multiple unexpected solar photovoltaic (PV) plant responses in the California region following contingencies in recent years warrant postmortem analysis leveraging digital fault recorder (DFR) data for a better understanding of such events and preventing similar events in the future. Most utilities in US, in general, possess transient stability (TS) phasor-domain models of the power grid. Since traditional phasor-based transient stability planning models cannot perform such analysis, this paper presents an approach to extract a region of such models and convert it to Electromagnetic transient (EMT) models. The approach is based on the determination of the minimum impedance-weighted spanning tree between the fault location and affected PV plants in a Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) planning model followed by conversion of this region into an EMT model. The accuracy of the proposed approach is validated against DFR records obtained from the 2018 Angeles Forest disturbance event.

Samanta, Sayan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topological Machine Learning Methods for Power System Responses to Contingencies: Preprint

While deep learning tools, coupled with the emerging machinery of topological data analysis, are proven to deliver various performance gains in a broad range of applications, from image classification to biosurveillance to blockchain fraud detection, their utility in areas of high societal importance such as power system modeling and, particularly, resilience quantification in the energy sector yet remain untapped. To provide fast acting synthetic regulation and contingency reserve services to the grid while having minimal disruptions on customer quality of service, we propose a new topologybased system that depends on neural network architecture for impact metrics classification and prediction in power systems. This novel topology-based system allows one to evaluate the impact of three power system contingency types, namely, in conjunction with transmission lines, transformers, and transmission lines combined with transformers. We show that the proposed new neural network architecture equipped with local topological measures facilitates both more accurate classification of unserved load as well as the amount of unserved load. In addition, we are able to learn complex relationships between electrical properties and local topological measurements on the simulated response to contingencies for NREL-SIIP power system.

graph theory↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topological Machine Learning Methods for Power System Responses to Contingencies

While deep learning tools, coupled with the emerging machinery of topological data analysis, are proven to deliver various performance gains in a broad range of applications, from image classification to biosurveillance to blockchain fraud detection, their utility in areas of high societal importance such as power system modeling and, particularly, resilience quantification in the energy sector yet remains untapped. To provide fast acting synthetic regulation and contingency reserve services to the grid while having minimal disruptions on customer quality of service, we propose a new topology-based system that depends on a neural network architecture for impact metric classification and prediction in power systems. This novel topology-based system allows one to evaluate the impact of three power system contingency types, in conjunction with transmission lines, transformers, and transmission lines combined with transformers. We show that the proposed new neural network architecture equipped with local topological measures facilitates more accurate classification of unserved load as well as the amount of unserved load. In addition, we are able to learn more about the complex relationships between electrical properties and local topological measurements on their simulated response to contingencies for the NREL-SIIP power system.

contingency analysis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗
DOE OSTI2020

Big Data Analytic for Cascading Failure Analysis

With the challenges of increased grid dynamics and more variability of power generation from renewable energy sources, rapidly increasing complexity in the grid model, and abundant data from measurements and simulations, the requirements for computational analysis have also increased dramatically. Power system operators and engineers need to analyze more scenarios, extract meaningful information from a larger set of data, and respond more quickly when faced with these new challenges for large-scale applications, such as contingency analysis. This paper proposes a novel big data analysis approach for power system cascading analysis, prevention, and remediation. The developed techniques will be capable of cascading analysis, better assessment of the system’s vulnerability level, as well as proposing potential remediation. Case studies using IEEE 118-bus system and a 500-bus system, with a comparison against a commercial tool, validate the advantages of the developed big data approach: accurate prediction, and more importantly, faster and effective correction actions.The developed techniques could be further used for other power system applications.

big data, cascading analysis, corrective action, m↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource

Multiple grid integration studies have examined the value of demand response, including from water heaters, to bulk power systems. Common shortcomings of these studies include physically unrealistic assumptions. For example, studies often assume that all electric water heater load can be shed for up to an hour to provide capacity or contingency service, that all electric water heater load is shiftable, and that round-trip efficiencies for shifting service are 100%. Another issue is that simply summing up estimates of individual water heaters' flexibility bounds, an attractive idea for constructing the MW-scale resources necessary for direct inclusion in grid investment and operational models, can result in significant overestimates of actual resource, because, e.g., a water heater with the ability to reduce load may not be able sustain the reduction for as long as the aggregate model suggests is possible. This presentation demonstrates the impact of estimating the flexibility of electric water heaters with physically realistic models suitable for grid service analysis. Electric water heater flexibility representations are constructed based on ResStock simulations of New England. Specifically, we examine contingency resource (related to capacity, shed, and contingency reserve services) and energy shifting resource from electric resistance and heat pump water heaters. Different estimation methods are compared; and the surrogate models' event responses are validated against events directly simulated in EnergyPlus. We also demonstrate the impact of using electric water heaters for contingency reserves and energy shifting in detailed models of possible future ISO New England power systems.

building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Co-Simulation Framework for Steady-State Analyses of Multiple Droop-based MTdc Grids in Continental-Scale Systems

The growing scale and complexity of planning continental hybrid ac and multi-terminal dc (MTdc) systems require scalable steady-state modeling and analysis approaches not currently available in commercial tools. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-fidelity model-conversion framework that enables the efficient transition of MTdc grid models from production cost modeling (PCM) and approximated ac power flow to detailed ac–MTdc power flow for large-scale planning studies. The core of this framework is a scalable co-simulation approach that, for the first time, enables power flow analysis in continental-scale ac–MTdc systems. It seamlessly couples commercial ac solvers with a detailed MTdc grid model that incorporates droop-based control and current-limiting strategies of multiple meshed MTdc grids. Leveraging this capability, an evaluation framework to systematically assess and compare different MTdc power redispatch strategies under ac and dc contingencies is introduced. The proposed framework and algorithm are evaluated using a combined Western and Eastern Interconnection system with 11 MTdc grids of various sizes, showing a coherent transition from PCM to detailed ac–MTdc power flow and improved system performance in voltage regulation and line overload mitigation following typical contingencies.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗