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At least 37 records · Page 2

Measuring Climate and Water Risk across the Bulk Power System

As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

PNNL-CIM-Tools/EASY-CIM

Extracting Attributes in a Simple DictionarY of CIM (EASY-CIM) is a python library to reduce the time and burden of model queries using simplified data representations of CIM power system models.

Anderson, Alex

Modeling and analysis of power processing systems: Feasibility investigation and formulation of a methodology

A review is given of future power processing systems planned for the next 20 years, and the state-of-the-art of power processing design modeling and analysis techniques used to optimize power processing systems. A methodology of modeling and analysis of power processing equipment and systems has been formulated to fulfill future tradeoff studies and optimization requirements. Computer techniques were applied to simulate power processor performance and to optimize the design of power processing equipment. A program plan to systematically develop and apply the tools for power processing systems modeling and analysis is presented so that meaningful results can be obtained each year to aid the power processing system engineer and power processing equipment circuit designers in their conceptual and detail design and analysis tasks.

Biess, J. J.

Probabilistic modeling of solar power systems

The author presents a probabilistic approach based on Markov chain theory to model stand-alone photovoltaic power systems and predict their long-term service performance. The major advantage of this approach is that it allows designers and developers of these systems to analyze the system performance as well as the battery subsystem performance in the long run and determine the system design requirements that meet a specified service performance level. The methodology presented is illustrated by using data for a radio repeater system for the Boston, Massachusetts, location.

Safie, Fayssal M.

Impacts of Alternative Operations and Renewable Energy Deployment on Columbia River Hydropower

The Columbia River Treaty Tribes in the Pacific Northwest - the Nez Perce, Umatilla, Warm Springs, and Yakama - hold treaty-reserved fishing rights for the Columbia River, one of the world's most productive salmon rivers and a critical resource for these tribes. However, the tribes have expressed that current operating regimes of hydropower dams throughout the Columbia River Basin (CRB) do not fully account for tribal fishing rights and have negatively impacted fish populations. Four tribes acting together through the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC)'s 2022 Energy Vision stated that current power system models often do not fully account for the many constraints faced by hydropower facilities in the CRB. As the deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) like solar and wind continues to increase, power system flexibility will become increasingly important. As a result, there is a growing need to better understand the true capabilities of the hydropower generation fleet while accurately accounting for ecological constraints (Northwest Power and Conservation Council 2022). Understanding hydropower's role in a future grid with a higher share of VRE can inform water resources planning to address ecological needs. The goal of this study is to examine the impacts of alternative hydropower operation rules and weather variability on hydropower generation and grid operations in VRE and transmission infrastructure deployment scenarios. The study evaluates how hydropower scheduling practices can reduce ecological impacts to the region's salmon populations. More specifically, the study examines the impact of today's dam water release rules (called "adjusted base water rules" in this study) and new, ecologically informed water release rules (called "ecosystem water rules" in this study) on two VRE scenarios (current renewable energy levels and higher renewable energy levels) using six weather years for each scenario (2008-2013). CRITFC developed the ecosystem water rules, which capture a portion of the changes they recommend for CRB hydropower operations. These analyses use a water resource planning model (OASIS) and a production cost model (PLEXOS) to simulate CRB reservoir cascade and Western Interconnection power grid operation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Dynamics and control of a continuum model for a solar power system

An approach for modeling dynamic equations of motion of a plate attached with rigid bodies is presented. The equations of motion are developed using the principle of virtual work. Lagrange multipliers are used as interaction forces and/or moments to maintain prescribed constraints which is the basis of the interconnection between the plate and rigid bodies. The overall approach is unique in the sense that a continuous model described by a family of partial differential equations is established. An approximate formulation by using variational method is established yielding a solution compatible with the assumed degree of approximation. The formulation is useful particularly when parametric study of dynamic response for a satellite power system is desired. As an example, an approximate governing equation of algebraic eigenvalue problem is given for a dual microwave power transmission system. Controller design is discussed.

Juang, J. N.

Data-Driven Modeling of High-Resolution Residential Load Profiles Using Low-Resolution Smart Meter Measurements

Accurate and high-resolution residential load profiles are essential for power system modeling, demand response planning, and effective grid operation. As the energy sector moves towards a more actively managed distribution system, the ability to understand residential energy consumption at a minute-by-minute scale becomes increasingly critical. High-resolution load profiles provide key insights into demand patterns and user behavior, enabling grid operators to design more effective energy solutions; however, residential load measurements in the field are typically recorded at low resolutions, such as 15-60 minutes, which makes it hard to study the characteristics of different residential customers. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a data-driven approach to generate realistic, high-resolution residential load profiles based on lowre-solution measurements and weather information. The proposed method retains the key features of the actual residential load measurements while offering appliance-level energy consumption details for each residential building. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed load profile generator, proving its capability to support utilities in optimizing residential energy management and ensuring a more reliable and resilient grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Connecting Minds: AI Use Cases to Bridge Power Systems and Large Language Models for Practical Applications

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and development of large language models (LLMs) present the opportunity to develop a new generation of power systems applications. In contrast with early power system AI applications based on structured numerical data, LLMs offer unique capabilities to perform logical reasoning using text documents, unstructured data, and application programming interface (API) calls to computational software. This paper seeks to bridge the knowledge gap between power systems engineers and LLM developers through a crosscutting explanation of use cases, characteristics, requirements, practical considerations from the perspectives of both LLM capabilities and industry needs. Specific focus is given to applications that can be realistically deployed by electric utilities. After introducing the architecture of LLMs and unique challenges of the power systems domain, this paper proposes twenty representative LLM applications grouped into categories of 1) power system operations, 2) asset management, 3) system planning and analytics, and 4) energy management and protection systems. Five use cases are presented within each category with descriptions of the motivation, objectives, approaches, example inputs / outputs, and benefits of each use case.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

SuperLab 2.0 Showcase: Connecting Five Labs to Tackle Grid Complexity and Unlock Unique Grid Asset Potential

SuperLab 2.0 (5-Lab Demo) is a collaborative, national-scale experiment showcasing the coordination of geographically distributed energy assets in real time. The demonstration integrates 25 physical and digital assets, spanning wind, PV, batteries, electrolyzers, DC fast chargers, microgrid controllers, building automation systems, small modular reactor (SMR), control centers, and gas turbines, across five DOE national laboratories-NLR, INL, NETL, LBNL, and SNL. These assets are unified using Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), a low-latency, high-performance U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) network, and controlled via a centralized energy controller hosted at NLR's ARIES facility. The demonstration validates the ability to stress-test hybrid energy systems under dynamic scenarios to de-risk advanced control strategies for greater resilience and flexibility. SuperLab 2.0 (5-Lab Demo) showcased a major advancement in federated national laboratory collaboration, enabling real-time, cross-laboratory experimentation to coordinate geographically dispersed distributed energy resources (DERs) using various communication protocols and networks. SuperLab 2.0 (5-Lab Demo) built on previous demonstrations conducted between NLR-PNNL and NLR-INL connecting diverse assets including distant protection devices, a SMR simulator, and a high temperature electrolyzer (HTE). Previous demos were based on a single connection between two labs with minimal coordination challenges. The 5-Lab demo with a centralized controller, distributed testbeds across different geographical locations, and use of protocols-based communication represents a scenario closer to real-world grid operations that coordinate resources across a region to meet system needs. This experiment studied how local DER controllers interact with a centralized energy controller during normal and abnormal events to maintain reliability. The SuperLab team across the five labs implemented a notional power system model equivalent of transmission and distribution lines, represented by the data networks interconnecting the labs. Each lab continuously exchanged local parameters (such as P and Q) from its Hardware-In-Loop (CHIL) and Power Hardware-In-Loop (PHIL) assets through centralized energy controller at NLR, enabling real-time interaction and coordination across sites. By leveraging ESnet as the communication backbone, the team successfully operated the distributed assets as a unified power system, with each bus represented by a different laboratory. This setup mirrors how assets interact in real-world power systems across dispersed locations with various protocols and latencies. At each lab site, assets were operated using their own local controllers which were coordinated through an overarching operation and control layer of centralized energy controller, equivalent to how an energy management system (EMS) orchestrates assets across a regional or national grid. SuperLab's federated connectivity utilized a Digital Real-Time Simulators (DRTS)-type gateway to connect Controller Hardware-In-Loop (CHIL) and PHIL assets between labs. To enable this federated connection through ESnet, a deterministic network was established where latency variations were consistent. This consistency allowed the development of digital filters for the power system assets across CHIL and PHIL interfaces to avoid unstable and unreliable grid conditions. This report provides an overview of the cross-laboratory configuration and offers insights into interconnecting geographically distributed research assets to test them as if they were co-located. This experiment represents a step toward linking nine DOE national laboratories, enabling nation-wide simulations that can address utility-driven challenges with grid resilience, flexibility, and modernization.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Alaska Meteorology, Energy, and Transmission (MET) Toolkit

The Alaska MET (Meteorology, Energy, and Transmission) Toolkit is the National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) new flagship atmospheric dataset, designed to support comprehensive long-term planning and operations across the entire power sector. Serving as the regional counterpart to CONUS-wide HRRR MET Toolkit, this dataset provides a comprehensive, high-fidelity meteorological record covering Alaska.The Alaska MET Toolkit is delivered at an hourly resolution on a standardized 2-km horizontal grid. This dataset is repackaged from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh for Alaska (HRRR-AK) forecasts. Spanning from 2019 to 2025, it overcomes the technical barriers of native weather models by providing spatial regridding from the native 3-km HRRR-AK horizontal resolution to a 2-km grid, temporal gap-filling, and vertical interpolation at key energy-relevant heights. By delivering highly accurate, validation-backed data across a comprehensive suite of atmospheric variables - including temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind characteristics - the Alaska MET Toolkit provides a highly accessible and strictly standardized foundation for modern power system modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY

A simulation model for reliability evaluation of Space Station power systems

A detailed simulation model for the hybrid Space Station power system is presented which allows photovoltaic and solar dynamic power sources to be mixed in varying proportions. The model considers the dependence of reliability and storage characteristics during the sun and eclipse periods, and makes it possible to model the charging and discharging of the energy storage modules in a relatively accurate manner on a continuous basis.

Singh, C.

PowerAnalytics.jl: User-Centric Power Systems Analysis in Julia

The National Laboratory of the Rockies recently released version 1 of PowerAnalytics.jl, an analysis module for the outputs of its popular open-source electrical power systems modeling platform Sienna. It features an extensible framework - based on the flexible selecting of components, the execution of arbitrary metrics on them, and a familiar DataFrames-based output interface with embedded metadata - to process results in the Sienna style while keeping the interface as simple as possible for non-Julia experts. Here, I describe the package and where it fits into the Sienna ecosystem, how I harnessed user-centered design and Julia features to achieve beginner friendliness without sacrificing performance and expressibility, and what lessons might be drawn from the package's design and implementation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

The relative influences of hydrologic information and dams’ hydropower scheduling decisions on electricity price forecasts

Price dynamics in wholesale electricity markets are driven by supply and demand. In markets with hydroelectric dams, the timing and amount of hydropower offered can influence prices in similar ways to wind and solar power. Unlike variable renewable energy, however, the supply of hydropower in wholesale markets is a function of both water availability and operational decisions at dams. Dam operators maximize revenues in wholesale markets by aligning generation with the periods of highest expected prices, and these scheduling decisions may in turn influence prices. Here, we examine the relative importance of two types of information in predicting forward electricity prices: a) water availability at dams, in the form of short-to-medium-range hydrological forecasts; and b) hourly scheduling decisions at dams. Using softly coupled hydrologic, hydropower scheduling, and power systems models spanning the U.S. Western Interconnection, we quantify the importance of hydrologic forecast accuracy in correctly predicting wholesale electricity prices and compare this with the influence of dam operators’ own hourly scheduling decisions on realized market prices. We find that aligning hydropower generation schedules with the periods of high forecasted prices causes larger, inadvertent price forecast errors than imperfect hydrologic forecasts. This suggests that knowledge of how water is managed by dam operators within the week is more important than weekly inflow forecast errors when predicting forward electricity prices. Our findings have implications for optimal hydropower scheduling by region. Specifically, accounting for price effects is critical in markets dominated by hydropower capacity.

Electricity markets

Data Centers Gap Analysis [Slides]

Data centers and other large loads are a significant driver of unprecedented, near-term demand growth in the United States. Power system planners, utilities, regulators, and other stakeholders are grappling with how to integrate data centers on the system without comprising reliability, resiliency, and energy affordability. NLR is pursuing work to develop a siting and decision-making tool that would draw on power systems modeling expertise to achieve granular representation of trade-offs involved in data center sitting and development. This slide deck supports the same workstream by reviewing the literature to identify mitigation options to facilitate near-term integration of large loads and by presenting options for pursuing data development and/or modeling projects to improve representation of siting options.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

GODEEEP-hydro: Historical and projected power system ready hydropower data for the United States

Hydropower is a critical electricity resource in the United States which, in addition to low-cost electricity generation, provides valuable ancillary grid services, and supports the integration of nondispatchable weather-dependent resources (e.g., wind and solar). Despite its value to the grid, there are very few comprehensive datasets available from which to study both historical and future impacts of climate, weather driven energy droughts, and integration of other weather driven generation. In this paper, we present a hydropower generation dataset covering 1,452 hydroelectric plants in the contiguous U.S. The dataset contains monthly and weekly hydropower generation estimates for both historical (1982–2019) and future (2020–2099) periods which includes 4 future climate scenarios. In addition, this dataset provides weekly and monthly constraints such as minimum and maximum power which are particularly useful in power system models which are used to study grid reliability, transmission planning and capacity expansion.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

QuESt PCM

SAND2025-14369O QuESt PCM is a tool for modeling power system production cost. It is designed for high-fidelity representation of energy storage systems (ESS) and is part of QuESt 2.0: Open-source Platform for Energy Storage Analytics. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Nguyen, Tu Anh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Liv