Big-Data-Driven Geo-Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis between Precursor Pollen and Influenza and its Implication to Novel Coronavirus Outbreak.
Abstract not provided.
Wallace, Michael Gary↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Multiple weather regimes over the North Atlantic - Analysis of precursors and successors
Four weather regimes occurring over the Atlantic area and their preferred precursors and successors are identified. The first pattern exhibits the typical European blocking dipole, the second one represents an enhanced zonal flow, the third one consists of a positive anomaly over Greenland, and the last one is characterized by a ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The backward and forward memory times of the different regimes are established. Preferred precursor and successor patterns are identified as the maxima of the composite probability densities of the anomalies occurring before the onsets and after the breaks. The preferred transitions between regimes are also examined. The systematic aspect of this study gives rise to multiple applications, especially for case and composite studies on model prediction errors.
Vautard, R.↗
Material State Awareness for Composites Part II: Precursor Damage Analysis and Quantification of Degraded Material Properties Using Quantitative Ultrasonic Image Correlation (QUIC)
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Subir Patra↗
An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification
The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.
Everett, Chris↗
Understanding the Fluorination of Disordered Rocksalt Cathodes through Rational Exploration of Synthesis Pathways
Here, we have designed and tested several synthesis routes targeting a highly fluorinated disordered rocksalt (DRX) cathode, Li 1.2 Mn 0.4 Ti 0.4 O 1.6 F 0.4 , with each route rationalized by thermochemical analysis. Precursor combinations were screened to raise the F chemical potential and avoid the formation of LiF, which inhibits fluorination of the targeted DRX phase. MnF 2 was used as a reactive source of F, and Li 6 MnO 4 , LiMnO 2 , and Li 2 Mn 0.33 Ti 0.66 O 3 were tested as alternative Li sources. Each synthesis procedure was monitored using a multi-modal suite of characterization techniques including X-ray diffraction, nuclear magnetic resonance, thermogravimetric analysis, and differential scanning calorimetry. From the resulting data, we advance the understanding of oxyfluoride synthesis by outlining the key factors limiting F solubility. At low temperatures, MnF 2 consistently reacts with the Li source to form LiF as an intermediate phase, thereby trapping F in strong Li-F bonds. LiF can react with Li 2 TiO 3 to form a highly lithiated and fluorinated DRX (Li 3 TiO 3 F); however, MnO is not easily incorporated into this DRX phase. Although higher temperatures typically increase solubility, the volatility of LiF above its melting point (848 °C) inhibits fluorination of the DRX phase. Based on these findings, metastable synthesis techniques are suggested for future work on DRX fluorination.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Cyote-attack Chain Estimator
Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.
Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗
Micro Baselines for Operational Technology Environments
Critical infrastructure stakeholders need to baseline their networks to understand expected communications. Top-down approaches to baselining rely on observables that are generally available but lack properties upon which traditional statistical tools depend. We propose to construct micro-baselines: signatures within operational networks based on observables associated with specific events. Such observables are informed by precursor analysis reports of historical cyber attacks on operational environments developed by Cybersecurity for Operational Technology Environments (CyOTE). Baseline measurements depend upon context beyond the cyber domain. An energy plant's baseline running in the summer may statistically differ from a similar facility in a colder region. Domain knowledge must be integrated to apply general micro-baselining algorithms to a facility-specific context. Therefore, we propose to explore the feasibility of transferring micro baselining algorithms across different facilities. Facilities that implement the same processes in different geographic locations will be compared relative to observable measurements used in micro-baselining for comparable events. One evaluation approach would condition or augment dynamic observables measured within a facility network testbed with additional observables derived from geographic context or infrastructure dependencies such as those provided by the All-Hazards Analysis tool.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Nuclear morphometric analysis of osteoblast precursor cells in periodontal ligament, SL-3 rats
Five small (55 days old, 196 +/- 5 g) (mean +/- SE) and five large (83 days old, 382 +/- 4 g) Sprague-Dawley strain, specific pathogen-free rats were exposed to a 7-day spaceflight and 12-h postflight recovery period. As measured in 3-micron sections, periodontal ligament (PDL) fibroblastlike cells were classified according to nuclear size: A + A' (40-79), B (80-119), C (120-169), and D (greater than or equal to 170 microns 3). Since the histogenesis sequence is A----A'----C----D----osteoblast, the relative incidence of A + A' to C + D is an osteogenic index. No difference in A + A' or C + D cells in small rats may reflect partial recovery of preosteoblast formation (A----C) during the 12-h postflight period. Large flight rats demonstrated increased numbers of A + A', indicating an inhibition of preosteoblast formation (A----C). At least in the older group, a 7-day flight is adequate to reduce PDL osteogenic potential (inhibition in PDL osteoblast differentiation and/or specific attrition of C + D cells) that does not recover by 12-h postflight.
Flight Experiment↗
Experimental and theoretical investigation of shock-tube precursors
Theoretical analysis and quantitative measurements of shock tube precurser effects
Mulac, A. J.↗
Chondrules and matrix in the Ornans CO3 meteorite - Possible precursor components
Bulk compositions of 17 chondrules and one sample of matrix from CO3 Ornans were determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Chondrule precursor components deduced from chondrule compositions are characterized by: (1) common and slightly volatile siderophiles, Cr and chalcophiles, (2) refractory lithophiles and Na, (3) Mn, Si and modal pyroxene, and (4) FeO and olivine. Component 4 may be closely related to matrix material. Precursor components have now been inferred for OC, EH, CV, CM and CO chondrules. An MN- and Si-rich component occurs exclusively among carbonaceous chondrite chondrules. Although there are significant intergroup differences, common to chondrules in all chondrite groups are refractory-lithophile-rich, common-siderophile-rich, and (with the exception of EH) common-lithophile-rich components. This indicates that the siderophile/lithophile and refractory lithophile/common lithophile fractionations recorded in chondrite whole-rocks were established prior to chondrule formation at all nebular locations.
Rubin, Alan E.↗
Preparing for Humans at Mars, MPPG Updates to Strategic Knowledge Gaps and Collaboration with Science Missions
The Mars Program Planning Group (MPPG) was an agency wide effort, chartered in March 2012 by the NASA Associate Administrator for Science, in collaboration with NASA's Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations, the Chief Scientist, and the Chief Technologist. NASA tasked the MPPG to develop foundations for a program-level architecture for robotic exploration of Mars that is consistent with the President's challenge of sending humans to the Mars system in the decade of the 2030s and responsive to the primary scientific goals of the 2011 NRC Decadal Survey for Planetary Science. The Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) also sponsored a Precursor measurement Strategy Analysis Group (P-SAG) to revisit prior assessments of required precursor measurements for the human exploration of Mars. This paper will discuss the key results of the MPPG and P-SAG efforts to update and refine our understanding of the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) required to successfully conduct human Mars missions.
Viking↗
Analysis of Auroral Morphology: Substorm Precursor and Onset on January 10, 1997
The solar wind interaction with the geomagnetic field is studied using global auroral images obtained by the Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) on Polar. We study the dynam,cs of the poleward and equatorward boundaries of the auroral oval in response to the solar wind IMF on January 10, 1997 using a neural network algorithm to perform an automated morphological analysis. Poleward and equatorward boundaries identified by the algorithm demonstrate a clear growth motion with the southward turning of the IMF and growth and poleward expansion at substorm onset. The area poleward of the oval (polar cap) is found to increase in size coincident with the'southward turning of the IMF Bz component at 0220 UT and peaks at substorm onset at 0334 UT. The area of the oval, however, decreases continuously throughout the period of the polar cap area increase with a slight recovery observed during the substorm onset. These observations are consistent with the concept that magnetospheric dynamics are directly driven by the solar wind-geomagnetic field interactions.
Germany, G. A.↗
Development & Validation of Low-Cost, Highly-Durable, Spinel-Based Materials for SOFC Cathode-Side Contact (Final Report)
A cathode-side contact layer is required to provide and maintain stable electrical conduction paths between the interconnect and cathode in a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack assembly and thus minimize the ohmic resistance and stack power loss. Current cathode-interconnect contact materials are based on noble metals, electrically-conductive perovskites, their composite materials, etc. These materials are either too expensive or do not possess the overall balanced performance required for the cathode-side contact application. To achieve the DOE SOFC system cost and performance stability goals, a new generation of low-cost, high-performance contact materials needs to be developed. In this project, spinel-based materials thermally converted from the Fe-Ni and Co-Mn based alloy precursors were developed and validated for the cathode-side contact application. The precursor alloy compositions were optimized via a combination of composition screening in the (Ni,Fe) 3 O 4 and (Mn,Co) 3 O 4 spinel system, alloy design using physical metallurgy principles, and cost considerations. The alloy powders with the desired composition and particle size were manufactured via gas atomization. The optimal process parameters for thermal conversion of these alloy precursor layers to a spinel-based layer were identified, i.e., 900°C x 2h in air, which is close to the initial stack firing condition. The area-specific resistances (ASRs) of the interconnect/contact/cathode test assemblies with the developed contact layer were determined for various durations (up to 5000 h) under simulated cathodic operation conditions. Some of the alloy-derived spinel contacts exhibited the lowest ASR and ASR degradation rate. The in-stack performance of the most promising alloy-derived contact layer is currently being evaluated via stack testing. To reduce the stack cost, the Co-Mn based alloy powders were utilized as the precursor for synthesis of dense spinel-based interconnect coating. By optimizing both the initial powder size/distribution and the alloy powder composition, a dense (Mn,Co) 3 O 4 -based spinel coating was achieved. Furthermore, co-sintering of the coating/contact dual-layer structure under the initial stack firing condition was realized by utilizing the tailored Co-Mn alloy precursors. Cost analysis of the developed technology indicated a total stack cost reduction of around 10.6% with the implementation of co-sintering of the interconnect coating and the contact layer during initial stack firing. Since low-cost processes such as screen printing is utilized in the precursor application and no reduction heat treatment is needed for the coating formation, the developed technology can be readily implemented at the industrial partner’s manufacturing facilities with no additional capital investment needed.
08 HYDROGEN↗
A prediction model of failure threshold for shear deformation in a Zr-based bulk metallic glass
The failure of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) during plastic deformation at room temperature is abrupt and instantaneous, while the analysis of precursor information based on avalanche events helps predict catastrophic failure. An acoustic emission (AE) signal can provide accurate precursor information for material failure, due to its sensitive and high fast calculation ability. In the current study, AE monitoring tests are carried out during uniaxial compression tests of BMGs at different strain rates. The AE experimental failure threshold, E max , is proposed on the basis of AE cumulative energy, which reflects the intensity of damage evolution at different loading conditions. Compared with the critical shear band velocity (CSBV) associated with stick-slip dynamics of serrated flow, E max is a more sensitive failure parameter since it is connected with the local microscopic changes that occur during the material response process. Here, the E max is obtained prior to reaching the CSBV since the calculation of these two avalanches analysis focuses on the different stages of shear band growth. In particular, AE events are related to the “dry” friction process in the first stage, however, the CSBV is responsible for the “viscous” glide in the second stage. Therefore, Emax is not affected by the complex interactions between the shear bands during the stick-slip process. The maximum avalanche of serrated flow, S max , is proposed as the experimental failure threshold, which depends on the applied strain rate as S max ~ $\dot{ε}$ –λ . According to the relationship of E max and S max , the theoretical failure threshold, E max , follows a criterion E max = 2545$\dot{ε}$ –λ - 4468, where λ is equivalent to 0.15 for this work. Finally, combining the different calculations and AE measurements, this model gives new insights to predict the deformation failure behavior of Zr-based BMGs.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
APPLICATION OF OBJECTIVES-DRIVEN ASSURANCE CASES TO SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN AN EVOLVING ACQUISITION MODEL
System properties such as “safety” and “dependability” cannot, in practice, be proven, and must be argued in an “assurance case” aimed at supporting risk-acceptance decisions that have to be made by system acquirers and/or regulatory authorities. The paper is concerned with applications of the “assurance case” idea early in design and development of new systems, when (apart from dedicated testing) the only available operating experience information derives from previous (non-identical) systems. Much of the discussion is based on an evolving acquisition model at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; previously, most major systems were developed in-house, but some major systems will now be developed by and acquired from commercial providers. Key points discussed include the following. (1) By promoting a particular kind of focused discussion between acquirers and providers, the use of assurance cases should be particularly valuable under the new acquisition model. (2) In principle, objectives-driven (sometimes called “performance-based”) approaches to assurance of performance have significant advantages in cases where they are applicable. (3) For truly novel systems, completeness of the safety analysis is a significant issue; it is important for the assurance case to include a commitment by the provider (or applicant) to seriously pursue analysis of operating experience, so that previously unrecognized hazards can be identified and addressed. (4) Inquiries into major accidents often point to deficiencies in management oversight in all parts of the life cycle; management processes need to be addressed in the formulation and the implementation of an assurance case. Under the new acquisition model, these considerations imply a serious reconsideration of the way in which the development process is managed by both providers and acquirers.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Application of Objectives-Driven Assurance Cases to System Development in an Evolving Acquisition Model
System properties such as “safety” and “dependability” cannot, in practice, be proven, and must be argued in an “assurance case” aimed at supporting risk-acceptance decisions that have to be made by system acquirers and/or regulatory authorities. The paper is concerned with applications of the “assurance case” idea early in design and development of new systems, when (apart from dedicated testing) the only available operating experience information derives from previous (non-identical) systems. Much of the discussion is based on an evolving acquisition model at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; previously, most major systems were developed in-house, but some major systems will now be developed by and acquired from commercial providers. Key points discussed include the following. (1) By promoting a particular kind of focused discussion between acquirers and providers, the use of assurance cases should be particularly valuable under the new acquisition model. (2) In principle, objectives-driven (sometimes called “performance-based”) approaches to assurance of performance have significant advantages in cases where they are applicable. (3) For truly novel systems, completeness of the safety analysis is a significant issue; it is important for the assurance case to include a commitment by the provider (or applicant) to seriously pursue analysis of operating experience, so that previously unrecognized hazards can be identified and addressed. (4) Inquiries into major accidents often point to deficiencies in management oversight in all parts of the life cycle; management processes need to be addressed in the formulation and the implementation of an assurance case. Under the new acquisition model, these considerations imply a serious reconsideration of the way in which the development process is managed by both providers and acquirers.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Thermogravimetric analysis of silicon carbide-silicon nitride polycarbosilazane precursor during pyrolysis from ambient to 1000 C
Thermogravimetric analysis data are presented on the unmeltable polycarbosilazane precursor of silicon carbide-silicon nitride fibers, over the room temperature-1000 C range in a nitrogen atmosphere, in order to establish the weight loss at various temperatures during the precursor's pyrolysis to the fiber material. The fibers obtained by this method are excellent candidates for use in applications where the oxidation of carbon fibers (above 400 C) renders them unsuitable.
Ledbetter, F. E., III↗
Ultrafast and Controllable Phase Evolution by Flash Joule Heating
Flash Joule heating (FJH), an advanced material synthesis technique, has been used for the production of high-quality carbon materials. Direct current discharge through the precursors by large capacitors has successfully converted carbon-based starting materials into bulk quantities of turbostratic graphene by the FJH process. However, the formation of other carbon allotropes, such as nanodiamonds and concentric carbon materials, as well as the covalent functionalization of different carbon allotropes by the FJH process, remains challenging. Here, we report the solvent-free FJH synthesis of three different fluorinated carbon allotropes: fluorinated nanodiamonds, fluorinated turbostratic graphene and fluorinated concentric carbon. This is done by millisecond flashing of organic fluorine compounds and fluoride precursors. Spectroscopic analysis confirms the modification of the electronic states and the existence of various short-range and long-range orders in the different fluorinated carbon allotropes. As a result, the flash time-dependent relationship is further demonstrated to control the phase evolution and product compositions.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗