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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Science & Technology Review June 2026: Predicting Tsunamis

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

60 years of science in ICF: from conception to scientific breakeven on the National Ignition Facility

The recent achievements of a burning plasma, fusion ignition, and scientific energy gain with deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility (NIF) represents a major milestone in the development of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and all of fusion research. In these experiments, fuel pressures well in excess of hundreds of GBars were achieved in the compressed fuel, and robust alpha heating of the fuel, far in excess of the energy provided by the implosion, were demonstrated for the first time. These achievements occurred 60 years after the inception of ICF and the first laser demonstration, and were made possible by more than five decades of research at laser facilities around the world. Advances in laser technology both in wavelength and precision, motivated by improved understanding of laser-plasma interaction physics and the demands of targets; improvements in target fabrication inspired by the need to control and minimize hydrodynamic instabilities in the implosion; and multi-dimensional simulations and diagnostics have been critical to this achievement. This paper will summarize the scientific and technical advances, the surprises, and the challenges that had to be overcome to achieve these goals.

fusion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learned synthesizability predictions aided by density functional theory

Abstract A grand challenge of materials science is predicting synthesis pathways for novel compounds. Data-driven approaches have made significant progress in predicting a compound’s synthesizability; however, some recent attempts ignore phase stability information. Here, we combine thermodynamic stability calculated using density functional theory with composition-based features to train a machine learning model that predicts a material’s synthesizability. Our model predicts the synthesizability of ternary 1:1:1 compositions in the half-Heusler structure, achieving a cross-validated precision of 0.82 and recall of 0.82. Our model shows improvement in predicting non-half-Heuslers compared to a previous study’s model, and identifies 121 synthesizable candidates out of 4141 unreported ternary compositions. More notably, 39 stable compositions are predicted unsynthesizable while 62 unstable compositions are predicted synthesizable; these findings otherwise cannot be made using density functional theory stability alone. This study presents a new approach for accurately predicting synthesizability, and identifies new half-Heuslers for experimental synthesis.

Lee, Andrew (ORCID:0000000153014295)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning and Data Science to Advance Laboratory Earthquake Prediction and Illuminate the Mechanics of Precursors to Failure

Earthquakes represent one of our greatest natural hazards and in recent years human induced seismicity is adding to the threat. Even a modest improvement in the ability to forecast devastating large earthquakes or smaller shallow events associated with fluid injection could save thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Current efforts to forecast earthquakes are limited by knowledge of earthquake physics and hampered by a lack of reliable lab or field observations. However, recent work has provided a critical opportunity for advancement. We have found: 1) clear and consistent precursors prior to earthquake-like failure in the laboratory and 2) that lab earthquakes can be predicted using machine learning (ML). These works show that stick-slip failure events –the lab equivalent of earthquakes– are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate elastic energy in a manner that foretells catastrophic failure. Remarkably, ML predicts the fault zone stress state, the failure time and in some cases the magnitude of lab earthquakes. In addition, the observations include clear precursors to failure in the form of changes in fault zone properties prior to lab earthquakes. Precursors have been observed in previous laboratory studies but their origin is poorly understood and their possible connection to ML based earthquake prediction is unknown. The work conducted under our project has dramatically expanded these efforts. We have developed an integrated data science approach to illuminate the physics of earthquake precursors and lab earthquake prediction. Our work has accelerated the development of ML, artificial intelligence (AI), and related data science approaches by providing massive data sets that are tightly connected to critical scientific problems and by bringing together leading subject matter experts and data scientists. Earthquake physics involves phenomena that are far from equilibrium. Our work has leveraged data science methods to illuminate these phenomena and investigate how they relate to earthquake prediction. In addition to a large database with many types of labeled events that is available to everyone, our work has advanced the fundamental understanding of seismic forecasting, earthquake physics, and fault rheology

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cryo2StructData: A Large Labeled Cryo-EM Density Map Dataset for AI-based Modeling of Protein Structures

The advent of single-particle cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has brought forth a new era of structural biology, enabling the routine determination of large biological molecules and their complexes at atomic resolution. The high-resolution structures of biological macromolecules and their complexes significantly expedite biomedical research and drug discovery. However, automatically and accurately building atomic models from high-resolution cryo-EM density maps is still time-consuming and challenging when template-based models are unavailable. Artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as deep learning trained on limited amount of labeled cryo-EM density maps generate inaccurate atomic models. To address this issue, we created a dataset called Cryo2StructData consisting of 7,600 preprocessed cryo-EM density maps whose voxels are labelled according to their corresponding known atomic structures for training and testing AI methods to build atomic models from cryo-EM density maps. Cryo2StructData is larger than existing, publicly available datasets for training AI methods to build atomic protein structures from cryo-EM density maps. We trained and tested deep learning models on Cryo2StructData to validate its quality showing that it is ready for being used to train and test AI methods for building atomic models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Phenomics Initiative Project Dataset Catalog Collection

The Predictive Phenomics Science & Technology Initiative (PPI) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are tackling the grand challenge of understanding and predicting phenotype by identifying the molecular basis of function and enable function-driven design and control of biological systems. Research projects within this initiative are divided into three Thrust Areas (TAs): TA1) Enhancing Multi-Scale Phenomics Measurements, TA2) Identifying Molecular Patterns of Biological Function, and TA3) Computational Methods - Phenotypic Signatures. In efforts to enable discovery, reproducibility, and reuse of PPI-funded digital research data generated or used through the course of the proposed research-funded lifecycles, all corresponding digital data assets conducted under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at PNNL are linked to this PPI dataset catalog collection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Phenomics Initiative Project Dataset Catalog Collection

The Predictive Phenomics Science & Technology Initiative (PPI) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are tackling the grand challenge of understanding and predicting phenotype by identifying the molecular basis of function and enable function-driven design and control of biological systems. Research projects within this initiative are divided into three Thrust Areas (TAs): TA1) Enhancing Multi-Scale Phenomics Measurements, TA2) Identifying Molecular Patterns of Biological Function, and TA3) Computational Methods - Phenotypic Signatures. In efforts to enable discovery, reproducibility, and reuse of PPI-funded digital research data generated or used through the course of the proposed research-funded lifecycles, all corresponding digital data assets conducted under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at PNNL are linked to this PPI dataset catalog collection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable training of graph convolutional neural networks for fast and accurate predictions of HOMO-LUMO gap in molecules

Abstract Graph Convolutional Neural Network (GCNN) is a popular class of deep learning (DL) models in material science to predict material properties from the graph representation of molecular structures. Training an accurate and comprehensive GCNN surrogate for molecular design requires large-scale graph datasets and is usually a time-consuming process. Recent advances in GPUs and distributed computing open a path to reduce the computational cost for GCNN training effectively. However, efficient utilization of high performance computing (HPC) resources for training requires simultaneously optimizing large-scale data management and scalable stochastic batched optimization techniques. In this work, we focus on building GCNN models on HPC systems to predict material properties of millions of molecules. We use HydraGNN, our in-house library for large-scale GCNN training, leveraging distributed data parallelism in PyTorch. We use ADIOS, a high-performance data management framework for efficient storage and reading of large molecular graph data. We perform parallel training on two open-source large-scale graph datasets to build a GCNN predictor for an important quantum property known as the HOMO-LUMO gap. We measure the scalability, accuracy, and convergence of our approach on two DOE supercomputers: the Summit supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) and the Perlmutter system at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC). We present our experimental results with HydraGNN showing (i) reduction of data loading time up to 4.2 times compared with a conventional method and (ii) linear scaling performance for training up to 1024 GPUs on both Summit and Perlmutter.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

A multimodal large language model for materials science

Understanding and predicting the properties of inorganic materials is crucial for accelerating advancements in materials science and driving applications in energy, electronics and beyond. Integrating material structure data with language-based information through multimodal large language models (LLMs) offers great potential to support these efforts by enhancing human–artificial intelligence interaction. However, a key challenge lies in integrating atomic structures at full resolution into LLMs. In this work, we introduce MatterChat, a versatile structure-aware multimodal LLM that unifies material structural data and textual inputs into a single cohesive model. MatterChat uses a bridging module to effectively align a pretrained universal machine learning interatomic potential with a pretrained LLM, reducing training costs and enhancing flexibility. Our results demonstrate that MatterChat greatly improves performance in material property prediction and human–artificial intelligence interaction, surpassing general-purpose LLMs such as GPT-4. We also demonstrate its usefulness in applications such as more advanced scientific reasoning and step-by-step material synthesis.

Tang, Yingheng [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2023

CPC data from TAMU TRACER campaign in the Houston, TX region from July to September 2022

During TRACER, the Texas A&M Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurements Van (ROAM-V) was deployed to capture airmasses behind (maritime) and ahead (continental) of the passage of the sea-breeze front through Houston. On select sampling days, ROAM-V sampled in the morning/mid-day on the coast and then transited to a second inland site for the afternoon/evening. The suite of instruments deployed on ROAM-V included a Condensation Particle Counter (CPC; GRIMM Model 5.403 CPC), Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS; TSI 3750 detector, TSI 3082 classifier, TSI 3088 neutralizer, TSI 3081A Differential Mobility Analyzer), Cloud Condensation Nuclei counter (Droplet Measurement Technologies CCN Counter), micro pulse lidar (Droplet Measurement Technologies Micro Pulse LiDAR (miniMPL)), and a Davis Rotating Uniform size-cut Monitor (DRUM; DRUMAir 4-DRUM). Before sampling at each location, the latitude and longitude were recorded using the GPS on the phone application “My Altitude”. Onboard the ROAM-V, aerosol samples are drawn through a shared isokinetic inlet at a flow rate ranging from 3.5 to 7.0 LPM. A portion of this flow is directed through a cyclone impactor (Brechtel, Inc. Model SCC 0.732) and 0.3 LPM is directed to the CPC. To correct the data for particle losses, we used a two-step method. First, the measured SMPS size distributions were used to calculate total particle loss through the inlet for every SMPS scan at a single deployment location. Second, the CPC data was corrected for particle losses using the average of the total losses per scan. This calculation was done separately for each deployment location due to changes in the measured size distributions between locations. Particle loss from diffusion (based on Kesten, 1991 and Gormley, 1949), inertial impaction in 90-degree bends (based on Aerosol Measurement, 2011 and Crane, 1977), and cyclone impactor efficiency (based on Dirgo, 1985) were included in the loss calculation. When the SMPS was not sampling at a location (in the case of an instrument malfunction or operator error), the reported CPC data was corrected with an average of the total losses for the entire campaign at the specified deployment location (e.g., if we needed to correct Galveston data, then the average of all calculated losses at Galveston was taken). These flatline corrections were used for all data on 22/07/13, 22/07/20, 22/07/22, and the data from Galveston on 22/08/09. An additional flatline correction of 14% was applied to all CPC data based on laboratory calibration prior to and after the campaign. In laboratory calibrations, we identified that for the same sample of air the field CPC (GRIMM Model 5.403 CPC) undercounted the total concentration of particles by 14% compared to the ground truth laboratory CPC (TSI Model 3750). This data was collected for ARM Field Campaign AFC07055 and supported by DOE ASR grant DE-SC0021047. For any further questions, please feel free to contact the instrument PI, Sarah D. Brooks, sbrooks@tamu.edu. Kesten et. al. Calibration of a TSI Model 3025 Ultrafine Condensation Particle Counter. Aerosol Science and Technology, 15:2, 107-111, 1991. Gormley et. al. Diffusion from a Stream Flowing through a Cylindrical Tube. Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy, Vol 52, 163-169, 1948. Aerosol Measurement: Principles, Techniques, and Applications, Third Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2011. Crane et. al. Inertial Deposition of Particles in a Bent Pipe. Journal of Aerosol Science, Vol 8, 161-170, 1977. Dirgo et. al. Cyclone Collection Efficiency: Comparison of Experimental Results with Theoretical Predictions. Aerosol Science and Technology, 4:4, 401-415, 1985.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

CCN data from TAMU TRACER campaign in the Houston TX region from July to September 2022

During TRACER, the Texas A&M Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurements Van (ROAM-V) was deployed to capture airmasses behind (maritime) and ahead (continental) of the passage of the sea-breeze front through Houston. On select sampling days, ROAM-V sampled in the morning/mid-day on the coast and then transited to a second inland site for the afternoon/evening. The suite of instruments deployed on ROAM-V included a Condensation Particle Counter (CPC; GRIMM Model 5.403 CPC), Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS; TSI 3750 detector, TSI 3082 classifier, TSI 3088 neutralizer, TSI 3081A Differential Mobility Analyzer), Cloud Condensation Nuclei counter (Droplet Measurement Technologies CCN Counter), micro pulse lidar (Droplet Measurement Technologies Micro Pulse LiDAR (miniMPL)), and a Davis Rotating Uniform size-cut Monitor (DRUM; DRUMAir 4-DRUM). Before sampling at each location, the latitude and longitude were recorded using the GPS on the phone application “My Altitude”. Onboard the ROAM-V, aerosol samples are drawn through a shared isokinetic inlet at a flow rate ranging from 3.5 to 7.0 LPM. A portion of this flow is directed through a cyclone impactor (Brechtel, Inc. Model SCC 0.732) and 0.5 LPM is directed to the CCN. To calculate particle losses, we used a two-step method. First, the measured SMPS size distributions were used to calculate particle loss through the inlet during sampling. Second, the corrected SMPS data was used to calculate the average of the total losses per scan down the CCN line. Then, the correction was applied to the CCN data. This calculation was done separately for each deployment location due to changes in the measured size distributions between locations. Particle loss from diffusion (based on Kesten, 1991 and Gormley, 1949), inertial impaction in 90-degree bends (based on Aerosol Measurement, 2011 and Crane, 1977), and cyclone impactor efficiency (based on Dirgo, 1985) were included in the loss calculation. When the SMPS was not sampling at a location (in the case of an instrument malfunction or operator error), the reported CPC data was corrected with an average of the total losses for the entire campaign at the specified deployment location (e.g., if we needed to correct Galveston data, then the average of all calculated losses at Galveston was taken). These flatline corrections were used for all data on 22/07/13, 22/07/20, 22/07/22, and the data from Galveston on 22/08/09. The supersaturation uncertainty is estimated conservatively at +/- 0.03%, where variation in the inlet temperature, pressure, and calibration technique prevents a more accurate measurement. Confidence in the reported supersaturation measurements is based on a pre-campaign calibration (following the methods from our previous work and Deng, 2014 based on Rose, 2008) in addition to inter-comparisons with the DOE for two days (22/08/18 and 22/09/01) where TAMU was co-located with AMF1. The inter-comparisons show good agreement between our instrument and the DOEs instrument on both days at all supersaturations. After the last inter-comparison on 22/09/01, there was no indication of a malfunction by our instrument through the rest of the campaign. Unfortunately, the instrument was dropped during demobilization. A post-campaign calibration was conducted, which showed a substantial departure from the pre-campaign calibration. The drop may have damaged the instrument’s ability to produce the desired supersaturations. Therefore, we do consider the data after 22/09/01 to be correct, but it should be used with caution. The CCN counter sampled for 3 minutes at each supersaturation setpoint (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2%). At the end of a cycle, the instrument was set to 0.01% supersaturation for 5 minutes. The data is comprised of the last 60 seconds of each supersaturation set point (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2%) to ensure the instrument stabilized and was able to reach thermal equilibrium. We removed the data during the periods where there were operational difficulties, setup, or maintenance. This data was collected for ARM Field Campaign AFC07055 and supported by DOE ASR grant DE-SC0021047. For any further questions, please feel free to contact the instrument PI, Sarah D. Brooks, sbrooks@tamu.edu. Rose et. al. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainties of a Continuous-Flow Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter (DMT-CCNC): CCN Activation of Ammonium Sulfate and Sodium Chloride Aerosol Particles in Theory and Experiment. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1153-1179, 2008. Deng et. al. Using Raman Microspectroscopy to Determine Chemical Composition and Mixing State of Airborne Marine Aerosols over the Pacific Ocean. Aerosol Science and Technology, Vol 48, Issue 2, 2014. Kesten et. al. Calibration of a TSI Model 3025 Ultrafine Condensation Particle Counter. Aerosol Science and Technology, 15:2, 107-111, 1991. Gormley et. al. Diffusion from a Stream Flowing through a Cylindrical Tube. Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy, Vol 52, 163-169, 1948. Aerosol Measurement: Principles, Techniques, and Applications, Third Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2011. Crane et. al. Inertial Deposition of Particles in a Bent Pipe. Journal of Aerosol Science, Vol 8, 161-170, 1977. Dirgo et. al. Cyclone Collection Efficiency: Comparison of Experimental Results with Theoretical Predictions. Aerosol Science and Technology, 4:4, 401-415, 1985.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

First principles prediction of the Al-Li phase diagram including configurational and vibrational entropic contributions

The whole Al-Li phase diagram is predicted from first principles calculations and statistical mechanics including the effect of configurational and vibrational entropy. The formation enthalpy of different configurations at different temperatures was accurately predicted by means of cluster expansions that were fitted from first principles calculations. The vibrational entropic contribution of each configuration was determined from the bond length vs. bond stiffness relationships for each type of bond and the Gibbs free energy of the different phases was obtained as a function of temperature from Monte Carlo simulations. The predicted phase diagram was in excellent agreement with the currently accepted experimental one in terms of the stable (AlLi, Al 2 Li 3 , AlLi 2 , Al 4 Li 9 ) and metastable (Al 3 Li) phases, of the phase boundaries between them and of the maximum stability temperature of line compounds. In addition, it provided accurate information about the gap between Al 3 Li and AlLi solvus lines. Finally, the influence of the vibrational entropy on the correct prediction of the phase diagram is discussed. Overall, the methodology shows that accurate phase diagrams of alloys of technological interest can be predicted from first principles calculations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Develop a weather-aware climate model to understand and predict extremes and associated power outages and renewable energy shortages with uncertainty-aware and physics-informed machine learning

Focal Area(s): The focus area is predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components with a particular emphasis on extreme weather in Atmospheric Science and power outages and shortages in Energy Science. Science Challenge: Predicting weather extremes (e.g., heavy precipitation, strong wind, and large hailstones), and weather-related power system outages and shortages can mitigate economic losses, save lives, support renewables integration, and improve power system resiliency. However, currently, the poor reliability and large uncertainty associated with the weather extreme prediction in the current climate models make the problem intractable. The key challenges are: (1) physical factors like green-house gases (GHGs), aerosols, and land use and land cover (LULC) can significantly impact extreme storms, but the understanding of these impacts is limited, particularly globally; (2) the convective permitting resolutions needed to model severe convective storms and their impacts are computationally prohibitive with global climate models (GCMs); (3) interactions between weather extremes and power system outages are complex and subject to great uncertainty. Current outage prediction models are short lead (~ 3 days), which do not allow for long-time planning of energy production and distribution. Moreover, we have limited capacity to predict weather events leading to sustained shortages in a renewable-energy-dominated power system. These challenges drive motivation for mechanistic understanding and reliable and efficient predictive modeling of extremes and their impacts from the sub-seasonal to long term projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Teleconnections-Induced Predictability of Regional Water Cycle on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales Using Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area: (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: Predictive understanding of the regional water cycle based on teleconnections of climate modes of variability using AI methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗