Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictors”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Breast Cancer Molecular Subtype as a Predictor of Radiation Therapy Fractionation Sensitivity

The predictive benefit of breast cancer molecular subtypes for systemic therapy approaches has been well established; yet, there is a paucity of data regarding their use as a predictor of radiation therapy fractionation sensitivity. The purpose of this study was to determine whether rates of local recurrence (LR) for patients treated with hypofractionated (HF) radiation therapy, in comparison to conventional fractionation, differ across breast cancer molecular subtypes in a large, prospectively collected cohort treated with modern systemic therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geometric compatibility measure m' for twin transmission: A predictor or descriptor?

In this work, the geometric compatibility factor m' is critically analyzed to assess whether it can be used to interpret/predict twin transmission (TT) across grain boundaries (GBs). This geometric measure is widely used to relate the likelihood of TT to the misalignment of both the shear and plane-normal directions within a twin set (i.e., incoming and outgoing twin). Here, using a large set of electron back scattering diffraction (EBSD) data, a detailed statistical analysis of twin-GB interactions is performed for {${1\bar{01}}2$} tensile twins in hexagonal close-packed (HCP) metals Mg, Zr, and Ti at different strain levels. In addition, a full-field crystal plasticity model is employed to quantify the role of local stresses and the applicability of m' as a criterion for the TT process. This combined study addresses the following three main questions: (i) What is the fidelity of m' in describing experimentally observed TTs? (ii) Can m' be used as a metric to predict/anticipate TT? (iii) Does m' naturally capture local stress effects? As a descriptor, m' cannot rationalize ~25% of TT events observed in Mg or more than 50% of TT events in Zr and Ti. As a predictor, the m'-measure does not predict TT events in over ~50% of twin-GB interactions analyzed. Further, the applicability of m' to describe and predict TT events decreases with an increase in elastic anisotropy, plastic anisotropy, and macroscopic strain levels. Finally, the twinning simulations reveal that m' does not capture the key effects of local stresses on variant selection upon twin transmission. The local stress induced by the twinning shear transformation plays a dominant role in driving the TT process compared to the geometric alignment of the constituting twins, i.e., m'.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Organic Photovoltaic Efficiency Predictor: Data-Driven Models for Non-Fullerene Acceptor Organic Solar Cells

In the design of organic solar cells, there has been a need for materials with high power conversion efficiencies. Scharber’s model is commonly used to predict efficiency; however, it exhibits poor performance with new non-fullerene acceptor (NFA) devices, since it was designed for fullerene-based devices. In this work, an empirical model is proposed that can be a more accurate alternative for NFA organic solar cells. Additionally, many screening studies use computationally expensive methods. A model based on using semiempirical simplified time-dependent density functional theory (sTD-DFT) as an alternative method can accelerate the calculations and yield a similar accuracy. The models presented in this paper, termed organic photovoltaic efficiency predictor (OPEP) models, have shown significantly lower errors than previous models, with OPEP/B3LYP yielding errors of 1.53% and OPEP/sTD- DFT of 1.55%. As a result, the proposed computational models can be used for the fast and accurate screening of new high-efficiency NFAs/donor pairs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative Proteomics and Quantitative PCR as Predictors of cis -1,2-Dichlorethene and Vinyl Chloride Reductive Dechlorination Rates in Bioaugmented Aquifer Microcosms

Quantitative measurement of process-specific biomarker genes of Dehalococcoides mccartyi (Dhc) supports monitoring at chlorinated ethene contaminated sites. In this study, we varied Dhc cell abundances from ~103 to 108 cells/mL in aquifer microcosms and correlated the corresponding reductive dehalogenase (RDase) gene and RDase protein abundances with measured reductive dechlorination (RD) rates of cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE) and vinyl chloride (VC). An additional set of microcosms tested the RD rate-predictive power of the regression analyses. These efforts revealed (1) that targeted proteomics quantifies Dhc biomarker proteins (e.g., TceA and VcrA, OmeA) over a relevant range of Dhc cell densities, and (2) that protein and gene abundances can predict RD rates. Protein detection limits translated to a rate coefficient of 10 –4 day –1 (0.04 year –1 ) for both k cDCE and k vc , which is within the range observed at sites undergoing monitored natural attenuation (MNA) (i.e., without the implementation of enhanced bioremediation treatment). Rates predicted using a combination of quantitative biomarker gene and protein measurements generally resulted in the best match with experimentally determined rate constants. These new findings provide evidence that quantitative biomarker measurements may be useful predictors of in situ RD rates, which would constitute a major advance for the cost-effective management of contaminated sites.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Functional Predictor Variables for the Leaching Potential of Arsenic and Selenium from Coal Fly Ash

The release of leachates from intact coal ash impoundments is a concern due to the enrichment and mobilization of toxic elements such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se). This study aims to explore the intrinsic properties of coal fly ash that correlate with the relative leachability of As and Se. We performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic regions. We assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition, and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, and Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Land Use Change Alters Soil Organic Carbon: Constrained Global Patterns and Predictors

Abstract Land use change (LUC) alters the global carbon (C) stock, but our estimation of the alteration remains uncertain and is a major impediment to predicting the global C cycle. The uncertainty is partly due to the limited number and geographical bias of observations, and limited exploration of its predictors. Here we generated a comprehensive global database of 5,980 observations from 790 articles. The number of sites evaluated is at least seven times larger than in previous meta‐analyses. Our constrained estimates of different LUC's effects on soil organic C (SOC) and their variations across global climates reveal underestimation/overestimation in previous estimates. Converting forests and grasslands to croplands reduced SOC by 24.5% ± 1.53% (−11.03 ± 1.06 Mg ha −1 ) and 22.7% ± 1.22% (−8.09 ± 0.67 Mg ha −1 ), while 28.0% ± 1.56% (4.46 ± 0.42 Mg ha −1 ) and 33.5% ± 1.68% (5.8 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) increases, respectively, were obtained in the reverse processes. Converting forests to grasslands decreased SOC by 2.1% ± 1.22% (−1.13 ± 0.44 Mg ha −1 ), while the reverse process increased SOC by 18.6% ± 1.73% (3.31 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ). Modeled relative importance of 10 drivers of LUC's impact on SOC revealed that higher initial SOC (iSOC) does not solely determine SOC loss in SOC‐negative LUC scenarios as previously proposed. Across four decades, reconverting croplands to forests and grasslands recovered only 49.5% (6.1 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ) and 75.3% (7.0 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) of the iSOC, respectively, indicating the need for protecting C‐rich ecosystems. Our global data set advances information on LUC's effect on SOC and can be valuable to constrain Earth system models to reliably estimate global SOC stocks and plan climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Thermodynamical Predictor of Tropical High‐Cloud Area Coverage: Estimated Anvil‐Outflow Stability

The stability at the lapse-rate tropopause (LRT) was previously defined as the upper-tropospheric stability (UTS and SUT) but might underestimate the stability control on high-level clouds, since there is little direct connection between convective processes and the thermal stratification at the LRT. Here, a novel estimated anvil-outflow stability (EAS) based on the minimum stability in the upper troposphere is proposed. At the Manus site, the results show that small and large values of the LRT-based UTS and SUT both correspond to strong divergence and frequent occurrence of high-level ice clouds. In contrast, smaller EAS corresponds to stronger convective outflows to produce likely more high-level ice clouds, with a strong negative correlation. In tropics, EAS better explains the geographic distribution of high-level cloud coverage (HCC) and its temporal variations than UTS and SUT. With a strong linear correlation, EAS is likely a simple useful predictor of HCC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm –2 ) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds

Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A procedure for rule extraction from a Self-Organising plasma disruption predictor for JET

In a previous paper, a Self-Organizing Map had proven to be able to identify the regions of the plasma operative space characterizing the pre-disruptive phase at JET without relying on any a priori information. One of the strengths of this disruption predictor lies in its inherent self-organization capability. The Self-Organizing Map discovers non-trivial relationships and captures the complicated interplay of device diagnostics on the internal plasma states directly from the experimental data. Moreover, the provided model allows the visualization of high-dimensional plasma parameters and facilitates easy interrogation of the model to understand the reasons behind its correlations. In this paper, an additional step is taken towards the interpretability of models for predicting disruptions by training a Decision Tree to classify the plasma states according to the interpretation provided by the Self-Organizing Map (stable or at high risk of disruptions). The Decision tree provides a set of rules which describe the transition of the plasma towards the pre-disruptive phase as visualized in the Self-Organizing Map. The obtained rules for the database explored in the study identify four regions in the map, two of which are at risk of disruption. These regions correspond to partitions of a 3D space based on the peaking factors of the core and divertor radiation, as well as the Locked Mode. The agreement between the Self-Organizing Map answers and the rules supplied by the Decision Tree is confirmed by the comparison of the performance exhibited by the two models in the prediction of disruptions.

Setzu, Samuele [Univ. of Cagliari, Monserrato, Cag↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress Toward Interpretable Machine Learning–Based Disruption Predictors Across Tokamaks

Here in this paper we lay the groundwork for a robust cross-device comparison of data-driven disruption prediction algorithms on DIII-D and JET tokamaks. In order to consistently carry on a comparative analysis, we define physics-based indicators of disruption precursors based on temperature, density, and radiation profiles that are currently not used in many other machine learning predictors for DIII-D data. These profile-based indicators are shown to well-describe impurity accumulation events in both DIII-D and JET discharges that eventually disrupt. The univariate analysis of the features used as input signals in the data-driven algorithms applied on the data of both tokamaks statistically highlights the differences in the dominant disruption precursors. JET with its ITER-like wall is more prone to impurity accumulation events, while DIII-D is more subject to edge-cooling mechanisms that destabilize dangerous magnetohydrodynamic modes. Even though the analyzed data sets are characterized by such intrinsic differences, we show through a few examples that the inclusion of physics-based disruption markers in data-driven algorithms is a promising path toward the realization of a uniform framework to predict and interpret disruptive scenarios across different tokamaks. As long as the destabilizing precursors are diagnosed in a device-independent way, the knowledge that data-driven algorithms learn on one device can be re-used to explain a disruptive behavior on another device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the use of air temperature and precipitation as surrogate predictors in soil respiration modelling

Soil respiration (R S ), the soil-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux that is a major component of the global carbon cycle, is strongly influenced by local soil temperature (T soil ) and water content (SWC). Regional to global-scale R S modelling thus requires this information at local scales, but few high-quality, wall-to-wall (global) T soil and SWC data exist. As a result, such modelling efforts commonly use air temperature (T air ) and monthly precipitation (P m ) as surrogate predictors, but their site-scale accuracy and potential bias are unknown. In this report we used monthly data from 880 sites across a wide variety of different environmental conditions (i.e., climate, ecosystem type, elevation, vegetation leaf habit and drainage conditions) to determine the suitability of T air as a surrogate for T soil , and data from 507 sites to examine the suitability of P m as a surrogate for SWC. Site-specific linear and second-order exponential non-linear models were compared using model evaluation metrics (i.e., slope, p-value of slope, root mean square error [RMSE], index of agreement and model efficiency). We found that T soil and T air are highly correlated and explain similar R S variability. In contrast, P m is not a good surrogate for SWC, even though P m explains a similar amount of R S variability to SWC. The wide variability in the site-specific relationships between R S and SWC means that no single relationship can be used for large-scale modelling. The results from this study support the use of T air in continental-to-global scale R S models, and highlight the urgent need for continental-to-global scale SWC datasets for the modelling and evaluation of future soil carbon dynamics under global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environmental predictors of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) sputum positivity among persons with cystic fibrosis in the state of Florida

Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are opportunistic human pathogens that are commonly found in soil and water, and exposure to these organisms may cause pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease. Persons with cystic fibrosis (CF) are at high risk for developing pulmonary NTM infections, and studies have shown that prolonged exposure to certain environments can increase the risk of pulmonary NTM. It is therefore important to determine the risk associated with different geographic areas. Using annualized registry data obtained from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry for 2010 through 2017, we conducted a geospatial analysis of NTM infections among persons with CF in Florida. A Bernoulli model in SaTScan was used to identify clustering of ZIP codes with higher than expected numbers of NTM culture positive individuals. Generalized linear mixed models with a binomial distribution were used to test the association of environmental variables and NTM culture positivity. We identified a significant cluster of M . abscessus and predictors of NTM sputum positivity, including annual precipitation and soil mineral levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Macro- and Microscale Preservation in Vertebrate Fossils as Predictors for Molecular Preservation in Fluvial Environments

Exceptionally preserved fossils retain soft tissues and often the biomolecules that were present in an animal during its life. The majority of terrestrial vertebrate fossils are not traditionally considered exceptionally preserved, with fossils falling on a spectrum ranging from very well-preserved to poorly preserved when considering completeness, morphology and the presence of microstructures. Within this variability of anatomical preservation, high-quality macro-scale preservation (e.g., articulated skeletons) may not be reflected in molecular-scale preservation (i.e., biomolecules). Excavation of the Hayden Quarry (HQ; Chinle Formation, Ghost Ranch, NM, USA) has resulted in the recovery of thousands of fossilized vertebrate specimens. This has contributed greatly to our knowledge of early dinosaur evolution and paleoenvironmental conditions during the Late Triassic Period (~212 Ma). The number of specimens, completeness of skeletons and fidelity of osteohistological microstructures preserved in the bone all demonstrate the remarkable quality of the fossils preserved at this locality. Because the Hayden Quarry is an excellent example of good preservation in a fluvial environment, we have tested different fossil types (i.e., bone, tooth, coprolite) to examine the molecular preservation and overall taphonomy of the HQ to determine how different scales of preservation vary within a single locality. We used multiple high-resolution mass spectrometry techniques (TOF-SIMS, GC-MS, FT-ICR MS) to compare the fossils to unaltered bone from extant vertebrates, experimentally matured bone, and younger dinosaurian skeletal material from other fluvial environments. FT-ICR MS provides detailed molecular information about complex mixtures, and TOF-SIMS has high elemental spatial sensitivity. Using these techniques, we did not find convincing evidence of a molecular signal that can be confidently interpreted as endogenous, indicating that very good macro- and microscale preservation are not necessarily good predictors of molecular preservation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lifting MGARD: Construction of (pre)wavelets on the interval using polynomial predictors of arbitrary order

MGARD (MultiGrid Adaptive Reduction of Data) is an algorithm for compressing and refactoring scientific data, based on the theory of multigrid methods. The core algorithm is built around stable multilevel decompositions of conforming piecewise linear $C^0$ finite element spaces, enabling accurate error control in various norms and derived quantities of interest. In this work, we extend this construction to arbitrary order Lagrange finite elements $\mathbb{Q}_p$, $p \geq 0$, and propose a reformulation of the algorithm as a lifting scheme with polynomial predictors of arbitrary order. Additionally, a new formulation using a compactly supported wavelet basis is discussed, and an explicit construction of the proposed wavelet transform for uniform dyadic grids is described.

Reshniak, Viktor [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Convergence of Inexact Predictor-Corrector Methods for Linear Programming

Interior point methods (IPMs) are a common approach for solving linear programs (LPs) with strong theoretical guarantees and solid empirical performance. The time complexity of these methods is dominated by the cost of solving a linear system of equations at each iteration. In common applications of linear programming, particularly in machine learning and scientific computing, the size of this linear system can become prohibitively large, requiring the use of iterative solvers, which provide an approximate solution to the linear system. However, approximately solving the linear system at each iteration of an IPM invalidates the theoretical guarantees of common IPM analyses. To remedy this, we theoretically and empirically analyze (slightly modified) predictor-corrector IPMs when using approximate linear solvers: our approach guarantees that, when certain conditions are satisfied, the number of IPM iterations does not increase and that the final solution remains feasible. We also provide practical instantiations of approximate linear solvers that satisfy these conditions for special classes of constraint matrices using randomized linear algebra.

Dexter, Gregory↗