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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Novel Calibration Approach for Monitoring Aerosol Hydrogen Isotopes Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy for Molten Salt Reactor Off-Gas Streams

Online monitoring is a key challenge for the continued development of molten salt reactor (MSR) technology. Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) has previously been demonstrated to be a viable tool for monitoring aerosolized species and noble gases in real time, but the ability to discern varying isotopes in these streams has not yet been investigated for MSR applications. Tritium will form in MSRs from ternary fission and from (n,α)-reactions occurring in lithium-containing salts. This study compares three spectrometers of varying resolutions and types for measuring hydrogen isotope shifts in LIBS spectra of wetted filter paper. For each spectrometer, multivariate models were built (i.e., principal component regression, partial least squares regression, and multivariate curve resolution) to quantify the isotope ratio. The top models were then modified and corrected to apply the models to aerosol samples with varying isotope ratios. This novel calibration strategy offers an 82% reduction in volume of the calibration samples needed and is a more viable pathway for calibrating deployable LIBS systems. Lastly, this calibration model was compared with an all-aerosol trained model for monitoring hydrogen isotopes during a real-time test where the protium/deuterium ratio, along with representative salt species (i.e., lithium, sodium, and potassium) were adjusted dynamically. Results of this test validated the predictive capabilities of the transferred model and highlighted the capabilities of LIBS for real-time monitoring of MSR effluent streams.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Decomposition↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Statistical Analysis of Factors Riving Surface Ozone Variability over Continental South Africa

Statistical relationships between surface ozone (O3) concentration, precursor species and meteorological conditions in continental South Africa were examined from data obtained from measurement stations in north-eastern South Africa. Three multivariate statistical methods were applied in the investigation, i.e. multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component analysis (PCA) and –regression (PCR), and generalised additive model (GAM) analysis. The daily maximum 8-h moving average O3 concentrations were considered in these statistical models (dependent variable). MLR models indicated that meteorology and precursor species concentrations are able to explain ~50% of the variability in daily maximum O3 levels. MLR analysis revealed that atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO), temperature and relative humidity were the strongest factors affecting the daily O3 variability. In summer, daily O3 variances were mostly associated with relative humidity, while winter O3 levels were mostly linked to temperature and CO. PCA indicated that CO, temperature and relative humidity were not strongly collinear. GAM also identified CO, temperature and relative humidity as the strongest factors affecting the daily variation of O3. Partial residual plots found that temperature, radiation and nitrogen oxides most likely have a non-linear relationship with O3,while the relationship with relative humidity and CO is probably linear. An inter-comparison between O3 levels modelled with the three statistical models compared to measured O3 concentrations showed that the GAM model offered a slight improvement over the MLR model. These findings emphasise the critical role of regional-scale O3 precursors coupled with meteorological conditions in daily variances of O3 levels in continental South Africa.

multiple linear regression (MLR)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts on product quality attributes of monoclonal antibodies produced in CHO cell bioreactor cultures during intentional mycoplasma contamination events

Abstract A mycoplasma contamination event in a biomanufacturing facility can result in costly cleanups and potential drug shortages. Mycoplasma may survive in mammalian cell cultures with only subtle changes to the culture and penetrate the standard 0.2‐µm filters used in the clarification of harvested cell culture fluid. Previously, we reported a study regarding the ability of Mycoplasma arginini to persist in a single‐use, perfusion rocking bioreactor system containing a Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) DG44 cell line expressing a model monoclonal immunoglobulin G 1 (IgG1) antibody. Our previous work showed that M. arginini affects CHO cell growth profile, viability, nutrient consumption, oxygen use, and waste production at varying timepoints after M. arginini introduction to the culture. Careful evaluation of certain identified process parameters over time may be used to indicate mycoplasma contamination in CHO cell cultures in a bioreactor before detection from a traditional method. In this report, we studied the changes in the IgG1 product quality produced by CHO cells considered to be induced by the M. arginini contamination events. We observed changes in critical quality attributes correlated with the duration of contamination, including increased acidic charge variants and high mannose species, which were further modeled using principal component analysis to explore the relationships among M. arginini contamination, CHO cell growth and metabolites, and IgG1 product quality attributes. Finally, partial least square models using NIR spectral data were used to establish predictions of high levels (≥10 4 colony‐forming unit [CFU/ml]) of M. arginini contamination, but prediction of levels below 10 4 CFU/ml were not reliable. Contamination of CHO cells with M. arginini resulted in significant reduction of antibody product quality, highlighting the importance of rapid microbiological testing and mycoplasma testing during particularly long upstream bioprocesses to ensure product safety and quality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient uncertainty quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the open-source Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) using GP-PCA surrogate models

Uncertainties in the thermophysical properties of molten salts impact both the steady-state and transient behavior of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). In this work, we aim to quantify the influence of such uncertainties on the transient operation of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), utilizing the open-source specifications provided for this reactor. Seven representative transient scenarios are considered. For each scenario, we evaluate the impact of thermophysical property uncertainties on four key multiphysics model output variables of interest (VoIs): maximum power density, maximum fuel temperature, maximum reflector temperature, and average fuel velocity magnitude. In addition, we perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) by computing Sobol’ indices for the uncertain input parameters to determine their contribution to the variability of each VoI. Conducting GSA is computationally intensive due to the large number of required evaluations of the high-fidelity multiphysics model. To mitigate this cost, we develop a surrogate modeling framework that combines Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling efficient sample generation for the GSA. Our results show that for energy-related VoIs, thermal conductivity is the dominant contributor to uncertainty. In contrast, for flow-related VoIs, density and dynamic viscosity are the primary sources of uncertainty. The specific heat of the fuel salt was found to play a secondary role in the transient analyses.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging visible and near-infrared spectroelectrochemistry to calibrate a robust model for Vanadium(IV/V) in varying nitric acid and temperature levels

Spectroelectrochemistry and optimal design of experiments can be used to rapidly build accurate models for species quantification and enable a greater level of process awareness. Optical spectroscopy can provide vital elemental and molecular information, but several hurdles must be overcome before it can become a widely adopted analytical method for remote analysis in the nuclear field. Analytes with varying oxidation state, acid concentration, and fluctuating temperature must be efficiently accounted for to minimize time and resources in restrictive hot cell environments. The classic one-factor-at-a-time approach is not suitable for frequent calibration/maintenance operations in this setting. Therefore, a novel alternative was developed to characterize a system containing vanadium(IV/V) (0.01–0.1 M), nitric acid (0.1–4 M), and varying temperatures (20–45 °C). Here, spectroelectrochemistry methods were used to acquire a sample set selected by optimal design of experiments. This new approach allows for the accurate analysis of vanadium and HNO 3 concentration by leveraging UV–Vis–NIR absorption spectroscopy with robust and accurate chemometric models. The top model's root mean squared error of prediction percent values were 3.47%, 4.06%, 3.40%, and 10.9% for V(IV), V(V), HNO 3 , and temperature, respectively. These models, efficiently developed using the designed approach, exhibited strong predictive accuracy for vanadium and acid with varying oxidation states and temperature using only spectrophotometry, which advances current technology for real-world hot cell applications. Additionally, Nernstian analysis of the V(IV/V) standard potential was performed using traditional absorbance methods and multivariate curve resolution (MCR). The successful tests demonstrated that MCR Nernst tests may be valuable in highly convoluted spectral systems to better understand the redox processes' behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Parameter Optical Fiber for Distributed Sensing of Humidity, CH4, CO2, and Corrosion

This work describes the use of the optical fiber sensor (OFS) for successful monitoring of humidity, CH4, and CO2 based on the strain produced along the single-mode fiber (SMF) sensor. This is enabled by absorption of H2O/gases onto the commercially available polyacrylate coated jacketed portion of the fiber resulting in a change in strain. Under equilibrium, a differential microstrain was observed along the jacketed portion of the SMF with N2, CH4, and CO2 at different relative humidity (RH) conditions. The strain response of the SMF under various mixed gas composition and different RH conditions were also measured and made calibration curves accordingly. Linear regression and principal component analysis of the strain datasets provided deconvolution of the impact of strain from H2O, N2, CH4, and CO2. Additionally, modified OFS comprised of the Fe coated fiber section was employed to monitor corrosion based on the increase in backscattered intensity amplitude of the light being passed once corrosion of Fe occurs. Also, corrosion of Fe was studied under soil by installing the fiber in soil with protective measures which would prevent the sensor being mechanically disturbed or broken during installation. The corrosion rates were studied by monitoring the rate at which the intensity of backscattered light amplitude attains a steady state value when complete corrosion of Fe with a specific coating thickness occurs.

Mainali, Badri↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Smooth Functional Data with Application to Material Properties

This document outlines a method for processing functional output (i.e., curves) for the ultimate purpose of sampling curves under specified input conditions for use in modeling and simulation uncertainty quantification (UQ) studies. A set of benchmark curves sufficiently representative of the relevant scenario(s) being simulated are provided to the process and formatted as described in Section 1. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized to discover the components of uncertainty in the benchmark curves and is outlined in Section 2. Section 3 describes the application of uncertainty quantification to the PCA results for the purpose of sampling curves to be used in UQ analysis. Section 4 applies these techniques to an example benchmark dataset. Concluding remarks are provided in the final section.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

The regression intersection method of adjusting image data for band ratioing

Estimation of the combined path radiance and sensor offset terms is essential in adjusting multispectral image radiance measurements for band ratioing. Commonly applied techniques for making this estimate have required assumptions or ancillary information regarding the reflectance properties of surface materials. This paper presents a technique that is unique in that it provides absolute (not just relative) statistically-derived estimates without the use of ancillary information. It is termed the regression intersection method (RIM). RIM is based on contrasts between the spectral properties of various homogeneous areas in rugged terrain. These areas are selected by examination of the image data alone. Bispectral regression (first principal component) lines are determined for each area and are projected, in pairs, to intersection points. Ideally, the coordinates of these points must equal the measurements for zero ground radiance since that is the only condition under which spectrally different materials can have the same radiance values. The median result from several site-pair and band-pair comparisons is used in order to statistically mitigate noise and minor variations due to natural variability. Tests show that the method is successful in determining correction values for the image data that result in maximum removal of the topographic effect in ratio images.

Crippen, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Instrument Cost/Schedule Model

NASA's Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) has established a number of initiatives to improve its cost and schedule estimating capabilities. 12One of these initiatives has resulted in the JPL developed NASA Instrument Cost Model. NICM is a cost and schedule estimator that contains: A system level cost estimation tool; a subsystem level cost estimation tool; a database of cost and technical parameters of over 140 previously flown remote sensing and in-situ instruments; a schedule estimator; a set of rules to estimate cost and schedule by life cycle phases (B/C/D); and a novel tool for developing joint probability distributions for cost and schedule risk (Joint Confidence Level (JCL)). This paper describes the development and use of NICM, including the data normalization processes, data mining methods (cluster analysis, principal components analysis, regression analysis and bootstrap cross validation), the estimating equations themselves and a demonstration of the NICM tool suite.

JCL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Parameter Optical Fiber Sensing of Humidity, CH4, CO2, and Corrosion

In this work, the previously demonstrated capability of the optical fiber sensor (OFS) for successful monitoring of humidity has been extended to monitor the humidity, CH4, and CO2 with different gas composition based on the strain produced along the single mode fiber (SMF) sensor. This is enabled by absorption of H2O/gases on to the commercially available polyacrylate coated jacketed portion of the fiber resulting a change in strain. Under equilibrium, a differential microstrain was observed along the jacketed portion of the SMF with N2, CH4, and CO2 at different humidity conditions, while the unjacketed portion of the fiber was used only for sensing pressure/temperature induced strain. In case of N2 at 800 psig pressure, the observed microstrain was approximately 80, 65, 50 and 35 µε at 100, 75.0, 46.8, and 23.4 RH% respectively. Comparatively, a microstrain of approximately 95 µε was observed with 100% RH CH4 which demonstrates that SMF produces a measurable CH4 response alongside water. Similarly, the observed microstrain with CO2 was approximately 105, 90, 85, 80, and 70 µε at 100, 75.0, 46.8, 23.4, and 0 RH% respectively. Linear regression and principal component analysis of these dataset provided deconvolution of the impact of strain from H2O, CH4, and CO2 enabling good cross sensitivity. Additionally, modified OFS comprising of Fe coated fiber section was employed to monitor corrosion, using Fe as corrosion proxy, under harsh corrosive environment.

Mainali, Badri↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Parameter Optical Fiber Sensing of Humidity, CH4, CO2, and Corrosion

In this work, the previously demonstrated capability of the optical fiber sensor (OFS) for successful monitoring of humidity has been extended to monitor the humidity, CH4, and CO2 with different gas composition based on the strain produced along the single mode fiber (SMF) sensor. This is enabled by absorption of H2O/gases on to the commercially available polyacrylate coated jacketed portion of the fiber resulting a change in strain. Under equilibrium, a differential microstrain was observed along the jacketed portion of the SMF with N2, CH4, and CO2 at different humidity conditions, while the unjacketed portion of the fiber was used only for sensing pressure/temperature induced strain. In case of N2 at 800 psig pressure, the observed microstrain was ~80, ~65, ~50 and ~35 µε at 100, 75.0, 46.8, and 23.4 RH% respectively. Comparatively, a microstrain of ~95 µε was observed with 100% RH CH4 which demonstrates that SMF produces a measurable CH4 response alongside water. Similarly, the observed microstrain with CO2 was ~105, ~90, ~85, ~ 80, and ~70 µε at 100, 75.0, 46.8, 23.4, and 0 RH% respectively. Linear regression and principal component analysis of these dataset provided deconvolution of the impact of strain from H2O, CH4, and CO2 enabling good cross sensitivity. Additionally, modified OFS comprising of Fe coated fiber section was employed to monitor corrosion based on the increase in backscattered intensity amplitude of the light being passed once corrosion occurs.

Mainali, Badri↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chemical mixture exposure patterns and obesity among U.S. adults in NHANES 2005–2012

The effect of chemical exposure on obesity has raised great concerns. Real-world chemical exposure always imposes mixture impacts, however their exposure patterns and the corresponding associations with obesity have not been fully evaluated. To discover obesity-related mixed chemical exposure patterns in the general U.S. population. Sparse Decompositional Regression (SDR), a model adapted from sparse representation learning technique, was developed to identify exposure patterns of chemical mixtures with exclusion (non-targeted model) and inclusion (targeted model) of health outcomes. We assessed the relationships between the identified chemical mixture patterns and obesity-related indexes. We also conducted a comprehensive evaluation of this SDR model by comparing to the existing models, including generalized linear regression model (GLM), principal component analysis (PCA), and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR). Eight core exposure patterns were identified using the non-targeted SDR model. Patterns of high levels of MEP, high levels of naphthalene metabolites (ΣOH-Nap), and a pattern of high exposure levels of MCOP, MCNP, and MCPP were positively associated with obesity. Patterns of high levels of BP3, and a pattern of higher mixed levels of MPB, PPB, and MEP were found to have negative associations. Associations were strengthened using the targeted SDR model. In the single chemical analysis by GLM, BP3, MBP, PPB, MCOP, and MCNP showed significant associations with obesity or body indexes. The SDR model exceeded the performance of PCA in pattern identification. Both SDR and BKMR identified a positive contribution of ΣOH-Nap and MCOP, as well as a negative contribution of BP3 and PPB to obesity. Our study identified five core exposure patterns of chemical mixtures significantly associated with obesity using the newly developed SDR model. The SDR model could open a new avenue for assessing health effects of environmental mixture contaminants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increased signal-to-noise ratios within experimental field trials by regressing spatially distributed soil properties as principal components

Environmental variability poses a major challenge to any field study. Researchers attempt to mitigate this challenge through replication. Thus, the ability to detect experimental signals is determined by the degree of replication and the amount of environmental variation, noise, within the experimental system. A major source of noise in field studies comes from the natural heterogeneity of soil properties which create microtreatments throughout the field. In addition, the variation within different soil properties is often nonrandomly distributed across a field. We explore this challenge through a sorghum field trial dataset with accompanying plant, microbiome, and soil property data. Diverse sorghum genotypes and two watering regimes were applied in a split-plot design. We describe a process of identifying, estimating, and controlling for the effects of spatially distributed soil properties on plant traits and microbial communities using minimal degrees of freedom. Importantly, this process provides a method with which sources of environmental variation in field data can be identified and adjusted, improving our ability to resolve effects of interest and to quantify subtle phenotypes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Moisture and Temperature Influences on Nonlinear Vegetation Trends in Serengeti National Park

While long-term vegetation greening trends have appeared across large land areas over the late 20th century, uncertainty remains in identifying and attributing finer-scale vegetation changes and trends, particularly across protected areas. Serengeti National Park (SNP) is a critical East African protected area, where seasonal vegetation cycles support vast populations of grazing herbivores and a host of ecosystem dynamics. Previous work has shown how non-climate drivers (e.g. land use) shape the SNP ecosystem, but it is still unclear to what extent changing climate conditions influence SNP vegetation, particularly at finer spatial and temporal scales. We fill this research gap by evaluating long-term (1982–2016) changes in SNP leaf area index (LAI) in relation to both temperature and moisture availability using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Principal Component Analysis with regression techniques. We find that SNP LAI trends are nonlinear, display high sub-seasonal variation, and are influenced by lagged changes in both moisture and temperature variables and their interactions. LAI during the long rains (e.g. March) exhibits a greening-to-browning trend reversal starting in the early 2000s, partly due to antecedent precipitation declines. In contrast, LAI during the short rains (e.g. November, December) displays browning-to-greening alongside increasing moisture availability. Rising temperature trends also have important, secondary interactions with moisture variables to shape these SNP vegetation trends. Our findings show complex vegetation-climate interactions occurring at important temporal and spatial scales of the SNP, and our rigorous statistical approaches detect these complex climate-vegetation trends and interactions, while guarding against spurious vegetation signals.

Moisture↗
DOE OSTI2022

A novel methodology to integrate outcomes regarding perioperative pain experience into a composite score: Prediction model development and validation

Abstract Background An integrated score that globally assesses perioperative pain experience and rationally weights each component has not yet been developed. Methods A development dataset specific to adult Chinese patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery was obtained from PAIN OUT (1985 qualified patients of 2244). A more recent validation dataset obeying the same conditions was obtained from the Chinese Anaesthesia Shared‐database Platform (1004 qualified patients of 1032). Outcomes were assessed using the International Pain Outcomes Questionnaire (IPO‐Q), which comprises key patient‐level outcomes of perioperative pain management, including pain experience and perceptions of care. Using principal component analysis and regression models, a composite score (CS) was inferred to integrate pain experience. The discrimination of the CS for dissatisfaction and desire for more pain treatment was compared with that of the worst pain score. Results A CS was developed from the 12 items of the IPO‐Q regarding pain experience. The weight for calculating the CS was worst pain 11, least pain 17, time spent in severe pain 11, interference with activity in bed 9, interference with breathing deeply or coughing 10, interference with sleep 9, anxiety 12, helplessness 12, nausea 0, drowsiness 2, itch 5 and dizziness 2. In external validation, the CS indicated superior discrimination to the worst pain in predicting dissatisfaction ( p < 0.001) and desire for more pain treatment ( p < 0.001). Conclusions This study introduced a methodology to integrate outcomes regarding perioperative pain experience into a CS, which was based on the weight of each item. Significance This novel methodology sheds additional light on the riveting issue of carefully integrating several measures into a composite endpoint, which may be useful for quality improvement purposes when addressing the impact of a change in clinical practice.

Jiang, Bailin↗