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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
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NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Probabilistic Mass Estimation Algorithm for a Novel 7- Channel Capacitive Sample Verification Sensor

A document describes an algorithm created to estimate the mass placed on a sample verification sensor (SVS) designed for lunar or planetary robotic sample return missions. A novel SVS measures the capacitance between a rigid bottom plate and an elastic top membrane in seven locations. As additional sample material (soil and/or small rocks) is placed on the top membrane, the deformation of the membrane increases the capacitance. The mass estimation algorithm addresses both the calibration of each SVS channel, and also addresses how to combine the capacitances read from each of the seven channels into a single mass estimate. The probabilistic approach combines the channels according to the variance observed during the training phase, and provides not only the mass estimate, but also a value for the certainty of the estimate. SVS capacitance data is collected for known masses under a wide variety of possible loading scenarios, though in all cases, the distribution of sample within the canister is expected to be approximately uniform. A capacitance-vs-mass curve is fitted to this data, and is subsequently used to determine the mass estimate for the single channel s capacitance reading during the measurement phase. This results in seven different mass estimates, one for each SVS channel. Moreover, the variance of the calibration data is used to place a Gaussian probability distribution function (pdf) around this mass estimate. To blend these seven estimates, the seven pdfs are combined into a single Gaussian distribution function, providing the final mean and variance of the estimate. This blending technique essentially takes the final estimate as an average of the estimates of the seven channels, weighted by the inverse of the channel s variance.

Wolf, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2017

Optimization of a Deep Convective Cloud Technique in Evaluating the Long-Term Radiometric Stability of MODIS Reflective Solar Bands

MODIS reflective solar bands are calibrated on-orbit using a solar diffuser and near-monthly lunar observations. To monitor the performance and effectiveness of the on-orbit calibrations, pseudo-invariant targets such as deep convective clouds (DCCs), Libya-4, and Dome-C are used to track the long-term stability of MODIS Level 1B product. However, the current MODIS operational DCC technique (DCCT) simply uses the criteria set for the 0.65- m band. We optimize several critical DCCT parameters including the 11- micrometer IR-band Brightness Temperature (BT11) threshold for DCC identification, DCC core size and uniformity to help locate DCCs at convection centers, data collection time interval, and probability distribution function (PDF) bin increment for each channel. The mode reflectances corresponding to the PDF peaks are utilized as the DCC reflectances. Results show that the BT11 threshold and time interval are most critical for the Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) bands. The Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function model is most effective in reducing the DCC anisotropy for the visible channels. The uniformity filters and PDF bin size have minimal impacts on the visible channels and a larger impact on the SWIR bands. The newly optimized DCCT will be used for future evaluation of MODIS on-orbit calibration by MODIS Characterization Support Team.

Mu, Qiaozhen↗
NASA NTRS2001

Laboratory characterization of silicon avalanche photodiodes (APD) for pulse position modulation (PPM) detection

Two commercially available large area silicon avalanche photodiodes (APD) were characterized in the laboratory. Specifically, the response of the APD’s to a sequence of 8-bit pulse position modulated (256-PPM) laser pulses, with and without background noise, was recorded and stored for post analysis. Empirical probability distribution functions (pdf) were constructed from the signal and noise slot data and compared to pdf’s predicted by an analytical model based on Webb/Gaussian statistics. The limited pulse sequence was also used to generate bit-error rate (BER) versus signal photons per pulse values, albeit with large error bars. These BER measurements were also compared to results predicted using the Gaussian and Webb/Gaussian models for APD channel statistics. While the measurements qualitatively reflect features predicted by theory, significant quantitative deviations are displayed between the measurements and theory. The source of these discrepancies is not currently well understood, but it is surmised that inaccurate knowledge of detector parameters such as gain and noise equivalent temperature models may explain the discrepancies.

Biswas, A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inter-Calibrating the CERES SW Instrument Fluxes Using Deep Convective Clouds(DCC) Within the Same Sun-Synchronous Orbit

The NASA CERES EBAF product provides the scientific community observed TOA fluxes to monitor the Earth’s energy imbalance and to validate climate models. To provide a seamless EBAF 24-year record, the CERES instrument calibration must be stable and consistent across satellite records. Once the Terra and Aqua spacecraft are decommissioned at the end of 2025, the CERES project will rely on CERES instrument observations on the SNPP and NOAA-20 1:30 PM sun-synchronous orbits. The SNPP and NOAA-20 satellite orbit placement will prevent any time matched observations for inter-calibration efforts. The future Libera instrument, which will continue the CERES record and scheduled for launch in 2028 onboard the NOAA-22 satellite, will also need to be inter-calibrated without the aid of time-matched observations. Deep convective clouds (DCC) are the most Lambertian, brightest, tropical Earth invariant targets located at the tropopause making them ideal to radiometrically scale the CERES SW observed radiance to a common reference. The SNPP, NOAA-20 and future NOAA-22 satellites are in the same 16-day repeatable orbits, allowing the DCC targets to be observed with the same angular configuration. The empirically derived SNPP CERES SW channel Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) can be easily be applied to the NOAA-20 CERES SW channel radiances since they observe the nearly the same DCC systems. The DCC BRDF corrected radiances are analyzed collectively into radiance probability distribution functions (PDF). By comparing the PDF statistics, the SNPP and NOAA-20 CERES SW channel can be inter-calibrated. The inter-calibration coefficients are validated with the CERES instrument calibration team coefficients to optimize the methodology.

David Doelling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deep Convective Cloud Calibration Sensitivity Studies in Support of Radiometrically Scaling GEO Imagers With VIIRS

The NASA CERES SYN1deg product provides the scientific community regional hourly TOA and surface broadband fluxes and clouds. For consistent geostationary (GEO) derived fluxes and clouds the GEO imagers are radiometrically scaled to the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. The CERES project utilizes GEO and MODIS or VIIRS analogous channel coincident, collocated, and co-angled radiance pairs as the primary method to inter-calibrate the GEO imagers. Tropical deep convective clouds (DCC) are bright, near Lambertian, top of atmosphere pseudo invariant Earth targets that do not rely on coincident ray-matched radiance pairs to radiometrically scale sensors to a common calibration reference. The DCC invariant target (DCC-IT) methodology collectively analyzes all tropical DCC identified pixel radiances by way of probability density function (PDF) distributions. Perfectly inter-calibrated sensor pairs should reveal nearly identical PDF distributions given the same DCC identification criterion. The PDF median, mean, mode, and inflection point statistics were tested as a function of DCC identification criterion using SNPP-VIIRS and Himawari-8 AHI 0.65μm channel radiances during January 2019. It was found that the PDF inflection point provided inter-calibration factors within 0.25% that were nearly independent of DCC identification criterion. The PDF median provided inter-calibration factors within 0.25% for the coldest BT and most stringent homogeneity factors. The PDF mean and mode statistics were inadequate under any DCC conditions. It is critical for the DCC pixel radiances to be anisotropically corrected. The DCC-IT methodology will also be tested for other visible and SWIR bands.

DCC↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Perspectives on Stratospheric Transport

Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Sparling, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS1972

On the probability of cycle-slipping in first-order phase-locked loops.

The first-passage time boundary value problem for first-order phase-locked loops (PLL) is analyzed, and spectral representations are developed for the probability density function (pdf), the distribution function, and the moments of the first time to passage (or cycle-slip). For the sinusoidal PLL, an asymptotic formula, that is surprisingly accurate even at low loop SNR's and large frequency offsets, is obtained for the pdf of the time to cycle-slip, in terms of the mean time to slip.

La Frieda, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The present paper describes the application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to air craft wing type structures. The code performs a complete probabilistic structural analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to random pressure. The sensitivity of fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Design for cyclic loading endurance of composites

The application of the computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) to aircraft wing type structures is described. The code performs a complete probabilistic analysis for composites taking into account the uncertainties in geometry, boundary conditions, material properties, laminate lay-ups, and loads. Results of the analysis are presented in terms of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) and probability density function (PDF) of the fatigue life of a wing type composite structure under different hygrothermal environments subjected to the random pressure. The sensitivity of the fatigue life to a number of critical structural/material variables is also computed from the analysis.

Shiao, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Presumed PDF Modeling of Early Flame Propagation in Moderate to Intense Turbulence Environments

The present paper describes the results obtained from a one-dimensional time dependent numerical technique that simulates early flame propagation in a moderate to intense turbulent environment. Attention is focused on the development of a spark-ignited, premixed, lean methane/air mixture with the unsteady spherical flame propagating in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. A Monte-Carlo particle tracking method, based upon the method of fractional steps, is utilized to simulate the phenomena represented by a probability density function (PDF) transport equation. Gaussian distributions of fluctuating velocity and fuel concentration are prescribed. Attention is focused on three primary parameters that influence the initial flame kernel growth: the detailed ignition system characteristics, the mixture composition, and the nature of the flow field. The computational results of moderate and intense isotropic turbulence suggests that flames within the distributed reaction zone are not as vulnerable, as traditionally believed, to the adverse effects of increased turbulence intensity. It is also shown that the magnitude of the flame front thickness significantly impacts the turbulent consumption flame speed. Flame conditions studied have fuel equivalence ratio s in the range phi = 0.6 to 0.9 at standard temperature and pressure.

Carmen, Christina↗
NASA NTRS1991

Comparison of laser transit anemometry data analysis techniques

Two techniques for the extraction of two-dimensional flow information from laser transit anemometry (LTA) data sets are presented and compared via a simulation study and experimental investigation. The methods are a probability density function (PDF) estimation technique and a marginal distribution analysis technique. The simulation study builds on the results of previous work and provides a quantification of the accuracy of both techniques for various LTA data acquisition scenarios. The experimental comparison consists of using an LTA system to survey the flow downstream of a turbulence generator in a small low-speed wind tunnel. The collected data sets are analyzed and compared.

Humphreys, William M., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Extended Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Analyses at the Shuttle Landing Facility: Phase II Results

This report describes the results from Phase II of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A seven year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. A PC-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) tool was created to display the data quickly.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

K-distribution and polarimetric terrain radar clutter

A multivariate K-distribution is proposed to model the statistics of fully polarimetric radar data from earth terrain with polarizations HH, HV, VH, and VV. In this approach, correlated polarizations of radar signals, as characterized by a covariance matrix, are treated as the sum of N n-dimensional random vectors; N obeys the negative binomial distribution with a parameter alpha and mean N-bar. Subsequently, an n-dimensional K-distribution, with either zero or nonzero mean, is developed in the limit of infinite N-bar or illuminated area. The probability density function (PDF) of the K-distributed vector normalized by its Euclidean norm is independent of the parameter alpha and is the same as that derived from a zero-mean Gaussian-distributed random vector.

Yueh, S. H.↗