On time changes in a digraph technical report no. 3
Mathematical model for analyzing changes through time in binary dyadic relation - probability theory
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Probabilistic versus fuzzy reasoning
This paper shows how to solve problems using probability theory that the fuzzy approaches claim probability cannot solve. By using the view that probabilities are a measure of belief in a proposition in a particular context, limitations imposed by the frequncy interpretations of probability are avoided. The various fuzzy approaches (fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic, possibility theory and higher order generalizations) seem to fill the gap caused by the restricted frequency interpretation. Close examination shows that the fuzzy approaches have exactly the same representation as the corresponding probabilistc approach and include similar calculi. The probabilistic approach assumes less information when the calculi differ.
Cheeseman, Peter↗
Conditional probability density functional theory
Here we present conditional probability (CP) density functional theory (DFT) as a formally exact theory. In essence, CP-DFT determines the ground-state energy of a system by finding the CP density from a series of independent Kohn-Sham (KS) DFT calculations. By directly calculating CP densities, we bypass the need for an approximate XC energy functional. In this paper we discuss and derive several key properties of the CP density and corresponding CP-KS potential. Illustrative examples are used throughout to help guide the reader through the various concepts and theory presented. We explore a suitable CP-DFT approximation and discuss exact conditions, limitations, and results for selected examples.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory
As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST to reduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.
Risk detection↗
Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory
As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST toreduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.
Risk detection↗
Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime
Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
A comparative analysis of YOLOv8 and U-Net image segmentation approaches for transmission electron micrographs of polycrystalline thin films
Metallic thin films offer a platform to experimentally study the dynamics of microstructural evolution, but the required transmission electron microscopy (TEM)-based imaging generates complex images that are challenging to segment and quantify. This work provides a comparative analysis of a new YOLOv8 model and an established U-Net model for bright-field TEM images of polycrystals, employing a framework leveraging physical observables to evaluate performance against two hand-traced benchmark datasets. This methodology obviates the comparison of large, diversely structured, and manually labeled datasets that are required to assess performance on a per-image/per-pixel basis. It is found that the YOLOv8 model, adapted for real-time instance segmentation, has up to 43× faster inferencing (NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090) compared to U-Net and reconstructs hand-traced grain size distributions (GSDs) with excellent fidelity, finding mean diameter within 3% for grains near an optimal magnification; for grains that deviate from the optimal pixel-diameter, the size of small- (large)-diameter grains is systematically over- (under)-estimated. This is partially mitigated by including scale-aware augmentations during training. Moreover, when the bias is corrected post-inference by a rigid shift in distribution, the YOLOv8 model reproduces ground truth GSDs with exceptional fidelity, with statistical tests indicating <5% probability that the distributions are distinct. Based on ground truth data, calibration curves pertaining to this shift can be constructed for a given model. This issue is not present in the U-Net model’s results, indicating that for quantitative measurements where the true size of objects is of interest, special procedures must be implemented for YOLO-based models.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Bias and spread in extreme value theory measurements of probability of error
Extreme value theory is examined to explain the cause of the bias and spread in performance of communications systems characterized by low bit rates and high data reliability requirements, for cases in which underlying noise is Gaussian or perturbed Gaussian. Experimental verification is presented and procedures that minimize these effects are suggested. Even under these conditions, however, extreme value theory test results are not particularly more significant than bit error rate tests.
Smith, J. G.↗
Reliability Analysis of Systems Subject to First-Passage Failure
An obvious goal of reliability analysis is the avoidance of system failure. However, it is generally recognized that it is often not feasible to design a practical or useful system for which failure is impossible. Thus it is necessary to use techniques that estimate the likelihood of failure based on modeling the uncertainty about such items as the demands on and capacities of various elements in the system. This usually involves the use of probability theory, and a design is considered acceptable if it has a sufficiently small probability of failure. This report contains findings of analyses of systems subject to first-passage failure.
Lutes, Loren D.↗
Further development of finite-temperature density functional theory (Technical Report on FG02-08ER46496)
The final year of funding was spent supporting research into extending conditional probability theory to generate the thermal dependence of PBE. The necessary background work led to a paper being published on the uniform electron gas (Dennis Perchak, Ryan J. McCarty, and Kieron Burke, Phys. Rev. B 105, 165143 (2022).). The graduate student John Kozlowski also contributed to a mathematical paper about DFT (Steven Crisostomo, Ryan Pederson, John Kozlowski, Bhupalee Kalita, Antonio C. Cancio, Kiril Datchev, Adam Wasserman, Suhwan Song, and Kieron Burke, Letters in Mathematical Physics 113, 42 (2023).).
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Convergence of the discretization equations which arise in stochastic control
A problem is considered which arises in the numerical analysis of the degenerate partial differential equations of stochastic control theory. The relationship between diffusions and finite state Markov chains is considered. The role of probability theory in numerical analysis is illustrated.
Kushner, H. J.↗
A Survey of Mathematical Structures for Lunar Networks
To sustain the current and increasing accessibility of space, a scalable communications infrastructure (i.e. the Solar System Internet, SSI) is necessary. The goal of this paper is to begin the discovery of the fundamental underlying mathematical structure of space networks to help the research community harness these structures for algorithm development and optimization. To ensure the applicability of the research, the approaches are considered through the lens of simulated scenarios inspired by the Artemis Back-to-the-Moon mission set for 2024. We note that any approach to an SSI must fit under the umbrella of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), due to celestial mobility, high link latencies, high variance in link latencies, disconnections, lack of end-to-end paths, and so on. These difficulties are exacerbated by the fact that the underlying structure of a space network is a time-evolving network and may experience multiple discontinuities in its topology. In this paper we propose several novel approaches to a mathematical foundation for Delay Tolerant Networking Theory that fall outside the traditional scope of temporal network theory. These techniques include methods from Topological Data Analysis, Dynamic Graph Analysis, Applied Algebraic Geometry, Probability Theory, and Game Theory. Some of these methods include tools adapted to the study of dynamic metric spaces, such as zigzag persistent homology and their higher parameter analogs. We find that several of these methods target desired engineering outcomes such as discovery and automatic sub-netting. While each approach is theoretical, they are also algorithmic in nature and offer immediate practical applications. The paper concludes with comparisons of the various methods along with suggestions for future work.
Delay tolerant networking↗
GeoMicro3D: A novel numerical model for simulating the reaction process and microstructure formation of alkali-activated slag
Highlights: • The GeoMicro3D model was innovatively developed for simulating the reaction process and microstructure formation of AAS. • In GeoMicro3D, the dissolution of slag and reactions of aqueous ions are fundamentally described in the local lattice cell. • A novel approach is proposed to speed up the nucleation simulations. • GeoMicro3D was implemented and verified with the relevant experimental data and thermodynamic calculation results. For the first time, this study developed a novel model, named GeoMicro3D, to simulate the reaction process and microstructure formation of alkali-activated slag. The GeoMicro3D model consists of four modules that are designed to simulate, respectively: (i) the initial spatial distribution of real-shape slag particles in alkaline activator, (ii) the dissolution of slag and diffusion of ions via the transition state theory and lattice Boltzmann method, respectively, (iii) the spatial distribution of reaction products using a nucleation probability theory, and (iv) the chemical reactions with thermodynamic modelling. Afterwards the GeoMicro3D model was implemented and verified. The simulation results were discussed and compared with the relevant experimental data and thermodynamic calculation results using GEMS. A good agreement was found in the comparisons, showing the strong simulation capability of GeoMicro3D.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Evaluation of astrophysical hypotheses.
The aim of this article is to set out a bookkeeping procedure for formalizing the process of assessing a hypothesis by comparison of conclusions drawn theoretically from this hypothesis with facts obtained by reduction of observational data. The formalism used is that of probability theory. A key role is played by Bayes's rule representing the inductive process of adjusting a degree of belief in response to new information. Formulae are derived which show (1) how the probability of each hypothesis should be adjusted in response to information concerning one item, and (2) how such estimates concerning more than one item may be combined. The procedure is illustrated by a work sheet showing how a few facts and conclusions concerning pulsars were combined to appraise the neutron-star and white-dwarf hypotheses.
Sturrock, P. A.↗
A non-commutative Bayes' theorem
Using a diagrammatic reformulation of Bayes' theorem, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of Bayesian inference in the setting of finite-dimensional C* -algebras. In other words, we prove an analogue of Bayes' theorem in the joint classical and quantum context. Our analogue is justified by recent advances in categorical probability theory, which have provided an abstract formulation of the classical Bayes' theorem. In the process, we further develop non-commutative almost everywhere equivalence and illustrate its important role in non-commutative Bayesian inversion. The construction of such Bayesian inverses, when they exist, involves solving a positive semidefinite matrix completion problem for the Choi matrix. This gives a solution to the open problem of constructing Bayesian inversion for completely positive unital maps acting on density matrices that do not have full support. In conclusion, we illustrate how the procedure works for several examples relevant to quantum information theory.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Questions Revisited: A Close Examination of Calculus of Inference and Inquiry
In this paper I examine more closely the way in which probability theory, the calculus of inference, is derived from the Boolean lattice structure of logical assertions ordered by implication. I demonstrate how the duality between the logical conjunction and disjunction in Boolean algebra is lost when deriving the probability calculus. In addition, I look more closely at the other lattice identities to verify that they are satisfied by the probability calculus. Last, I look towards developing the calculus of inquiry demonstrating that there is a sum and product rule for the relevance measure as well as a Bayes theorem. Current difficulties in deriving the complete inquiry calculus will also be discussed.
Knuth, Kevin H.↗
Probabilistic structural analysis methods for select space propulsion system components
The Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project developed at the Southwest Research Institute integrates state-of-the-art structural analysis techniques with probability theory for the design and analysis of complex large-scale engineering structures. An advanced efficient software system (NESSUS) capable of performing complex probabilistic analysis has been developed. NESSUS contains a number of software components to perform probabilistic analysis of structures. These components include: an expert system, a probabilistic finite element code, a probabilistic boundary element code and a fast probability integrator. The NESSUS software system is shown. An expert system is included to capture and utilize PSAM knowledge and experience. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator (FPI). The expert system menu structure is summarized. The NESSUS system contains a state-of-the-art nonlinear probabilistic finite element code, NESSUS/FEM, to determine the structural response and sensitivities. A broad range of analysis capabilities and an extensive element library is present.
Millwater, H. R.↗
Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry
The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.
Review↗