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NASA NTRS1989

Volcanic eruptions and solar activity

The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mission objectives and comparison of strategies for Mars exploration

Over the past several years, a number of candidate scenarios for the human exploration of Mars have been advanced. These have had a range of mission objectives, scope, scale, complexity and probable cost. The Exploration Programs Office (ExPO) has developed a reference Mars exploration program and a means of comparing it to other proposed Mars programs. The reference program was initiated in a workshop of Mars exploration advocates which defined two objectives of equal importance for early Mars exploration - understanding Mars and understanding the potential of Mars to support humans. These goals were used to define a set of transportation and surface elements that could carry out a robust exploration program. The approach to comparing alternate architectures has three principal parts: (1) Bringing the architectures into rough commonality in terms of surface mission objectives and hardware capabilities; (2) Providing a common level of human support for flights to and from Mars; and (3) Comparing the complexity of the elements needed to carry out the program and using partial redundancy to approximate the same statistical probability of mission success. This top-level approach has been applied to the ExPO reference program, the 'Mars Directs strategy (Zubrin, 1991) and the Stanford International Mars Mission (Lusignan, 1992).

Duke, Michael B.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Can we treat CO₂ well blowouts like routine plumbing problems? A study of the incidence, impact, and perception of loss of well control

Risk communication literature suggests that for a number of reasons, the public may perceive a risk to be greater than indicated by its statistical probability. Public concern over risk can lead to significant and costly delays in project permitting and operations. Considering these theories, media coverage of CO₂-related well blowouts in 2013 gave rise to the questions: What is the risk of CO₂ well blowouts associated with CCUS through CO₂ EOR? What is the potential public perception of those risks? What information could be used to respond to public concern? To address these questions, this study aims to: 1) provide a framework for understanding the nature of onshore well blowouts, 2) quantify the incidence of such events for three specific geographic regions of Texas, 3) relate this data to CCUS and findings from other studies, and 4) explore the potential implications for public perception of this risk associated with CCUS projects. While quantifying answers to these questions proved to be challenging, the results from this study suggest that (1) the perceived risk of CO₂ well blowouts may exceed the statistical risk and (2) information that could be used to address this gap could be made more readily available to the greater benefit of industry and stakeholders who support the development of CCUS as an option for addressing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. The study also suggests approaches to best conduct such data inquiries.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hair Proteome Variation at Different Body Locations on Genetically Variant Peptide Detection for Protein-Based Human Identification

Abstract Human hair contains minimal intact nuclear DNA for human identification in forensic and archaeological applications. In contrast, proteins offer a pathway to exploit hair evidence for human identification owing to their persistence, abundance, and derivation from DNA. Individualizing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are often conserved as single amino acid polymorphisms in genetically variant peptides (GVPs). Detection of GVP markers in the hair proteome via high-resolution tandem mass spectrometry permits inference of SNPs with known statistical probabilities. To adopt this approach for forensic investigations, hair proteomic variation and its effects on GVP identification must first be characterized. This research aimed to assess variation in single-inch head, arm, and pubic hair, and discover body location-invariant GVP markers to distinguish individuals. Comparison of protein profiles revealed greater body location-specific variation in keratin-associated proteins and intracellular proteins, allowing body location differentiation. However, robust GVP markers derive primarily from keratins that do not exhibit body location-specific differential expression, supporting GVP identification independence from hair proteomic variation at the various body locations. Further, pairwise comparisons of GVP profiles with 8 SNPs demonstrated greatest interindividual variation and high intraindividual consistency, enabling similar differentiative potential of individuals using single hairs irrespective of body location origin.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A deep generative model enables automated structure elucidation of novel psychoactive substances

Over the past decade, the illicit drug market has been reshaped by the proliferation of clandestinely produced designer drugs. These agents, referred to as new psychoactive substances (NPSs), are designed to mimic the physiological actions of better-known drugs of abuse while skirting drug control laws. The public health burden of NPS abuse obliges toxicological, police and customs laboratories to screen for them in law enforcement seizures and biological samples. However, the identification of emerging NPSs is challenging due to the chemical diversity of these substances and the fleeting nature of their appearance on the illicit market. Here, in this study, we present DarkNPS, a deep learning-enabled approach to automatically elucidate the structures of unidentified designer drugs using only mass spectrometric data. Our method employs a deep generative model to learn a statistical probability distribution over unobserved structures, which we term the structural prior. We show that the structural prior allows DarkNPS to elucidate the exact chemical structure of an unidentified NPS with an accuracy of 51% and a top-10 accuracy of 86%. Our generative approach has the potential to enable de novo structure elucidation for other types of small molecules that are routinely analysed by mass spectrometry.

Cheminformatics↗

DOE OSTI2015

BANYAN. V. A SYSTEMATIC ALL-SKY SURVEY FOR NEW VERY LATE-TYPE LOW-MASS STARS AND BROWN DWARFS IN NEARBY YOUNG MOVING GROUPS

We present the BANYAN All-Sky Survey (BASS) catalog, consisting of 228 new late-type (M4-L6) candidate members of nearby young moving groups (YMGs) with an expected false-positive rate of ∼13%. This sample includes 79 new candidate young brown dwarfs and 22 planetary-mass objects. These candidates were identified through the first systematic all-sky survey for late-type low-mass stars and brown dwarfs in YMGs. We cross-matched the Two Micron All Sky Survey and AllWISE catalogs outside of the galactic plane to build a sample of 98,970 potential ≥M5 dwarfs in the solar neighborhood and calculated their proper motions with typical precisions of 5-15 mas yr{sup –1}. We selected highly probable candidate members of several YMGs from this sample using the Bayesian Analysis for Nearby Young AssociatioNs II tool (BANYAN II). We used the most probable statistical distances inferred from BANYAN II to estimate the spectral type and mass of these candidate YMG members. We used this unique sample to show tentative signs of mass segregation in the AB Doradus moving group and the Tucana-Horologium and Columba associations. The BASS sample has already been successful in identifying several new young brown dwarfs in earlier publications, and will be of great interest in studying the initial mass function of YMGs and for the search of exoplanets by direct imaging; the input sample of potential close-by ≥M5 dwarfs will be useful to study the kinematics of low-mass stars and brown dwarfs and search for new proper motion pairs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-C-BRB-05: Determining the Adequacy of Auto-Contouring Via Probabilistic Assessment of Ensuing Treatment Plan Metrics in Comparison with Manual Contours

Purpose: To determine if auto-contour and manual-contour—based plans differ when evaluated with respect to probabilistic coverage metrics and biological model endpoints for prostate IMRT. Methods: Manual and auto-contours were created for 149 CT image sets acquired from 16 unique prostate patients. A single physician manually contoured all images. Auto-contouring was completed utilizing Pinnacle’s Smart Probabilistic Image Contouring Engine (SPICE). For each CT, three different 78 Gy/39 fraction 7-beam IMRT plans are created; PD with drawn ROIs, PAS with auto-contoured ROIs, and PM with auto-contoured OARs with the manually drawn target. For each plan, 1000 virtual treatment simulations with different sampled systematic errors for each simulation and a different sampled random error for each fraction were performed using our in-house GPU-accelerated robustness analyzer tool which reports the statistical probability of achieving dose-volume metrics, NTCP, TCP, and the probability of achieving the optimization criteria for both auto-contoured (AS) and manually drawn (D) ROIs. Metrics are reported for all possible cross-evaluation pairs of ROI types (AS,D) and planning scenarios (PD,PAS,PM). Bhattacharyya coefficient (BC) is calculated to measure the PDF similarities for the dose-volume metric, NTCP, TCP, and objectives with respect to the manually drawn contour evaluated on base plan (D-PD). Results: We observe high BC values (BC≥0.94) for all OAR objectives. BC values of max dose objective on CTV also signify high resemblance (BC≥0.93) between the distributions. On the other hand, BC values for CTV’s D95 and Dmin objectives are small for AS-PM, AS-PD. NTCP distributions are similar across all evaluation pairs, while TCP distributions of AS-PM, AS-PD sustain variations up to %6 compared to other evaluated pairs. Conclusion: No significant probabilistic differences are observed in the metrics when auto-contoured OARs are used. The prostate auto-contour needs improvement to achieve clinically equivalent plans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Variable gamma-ray sky at 1 GeV

We search for the long-term variability of the gamma-ray sky in the energy range E > 1 GeV with 168 weeks of the gamma-ray telescope Fermi-LAT data. We perform a full sky blind search for regions with variable flux looking for deviations from uniformity. We bin the sky into 12288 pixels using the HEALPix package and use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to compare weekly photon counts in each pixel with the constant flux hypothesis. The weekly exposure of Fermi-LAT for each pixel is calculated with the Fermi-LAT tools. We consider flux variations in a pixel significant if the statistical probability of uniformity is less than 4 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -6}, which corresponds to 0.05 false detections in the whole set. We identified 117 variable sources, 27 of which have not been reported variable before. The sources with previously unidentified variability contain 25 active galactic nuclei (AGN) belonging to the blazar class (11 BL Lacs and 14 FSRQs), one AGN of an uncertain type, and one pulsar PSR J0633+1746 (Geminga).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Search for differences between radio-loud and radio-quiet gamma-ray pulsar populations with Fermi-LAT data

Observations by the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) have enabled us to explore the population of non-recycled gamma-ray pulsars with a set of 112 objects. It was recently noted that there are apparent differences in the properties of radio-quiet and radio-loud subsets. In particular, the average observed radio-loud pulsar is younger than the average radio-quiet one and is located at lower Galactic latitude. Even so, the analysis based on the full list of pulsars may suffer from selection effects. Namely, most radio-loud pulsars are first discovered in the radio band, while radio-quiet ones are found using the gamma-ray data. In this work we perform a blind search for gamma-ray pulsars using the Fermi-LAT data alone, using all point sources from the 3FGL catalog as the candidates. Unlike our previous work, the present catalog is constructed with a semi-coherent method based on the time-differencing technique and covers the full range of characteristic ages down to 1 kyr. The search resulted in a catalog of 40 non-recycled pulsars, 25 of which are radio-quiet. All pulsars found in the search were previously known gamma-ray pulsars. We find no statistically significant differences in age or in distributions in Galactic latitude for the radio-loud and radio-quiet pulsars, while the distributions in rotation period are marginally different with a statistical probability of 4×10{sup −3}. The fraction of radio-quiet pulsars is estimated as ϵ{sub RQ}=(63±8)%. The results are in agreement with the predictions of the outer magnetosphere models, while the polar cap models are disfavored.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1968

The evaluation and refinement of a mathematical model for the statistical determination of internal microbial contamination of spacecraft materials Final report

Mathematical model for statistical probability of internal microbial spacecraft contamination

Ernst, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Evacuation areas for transportation accidents involving propellant tank pressure bursts

Evacuation areas are defined for those transportation accidents where volatile chemical propellant tanks are exposed to fire in the wreckage and eventually explode with consequent risks from fragments in surrounding populated areas. An evacuation area with a minimum radius of 600 m (2000 ft) is recommended to limit the statistical probability of fatality to one in 100 such accidents. The result was made possible by the derivation of a distribution function of distances reached by fragments from bursting chemical car tanks. Data concerning fragments was obtained from reports or tank car pressure bursts between 1958 and 1971.

Siewert, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Evacuation areas for transportation accidents involving propellant tank pressure bursts

Evacuation areas are defined for those transportation accidents where volatile chemical propellant tanks are exposed to fire in the wreckage and eventually explode with consequent risks from fragments in surrounding populated areas. An evacuation area with a minimum radius of 600 m is recommended to limit the statistical probability of fatality to one in 100 such accidents. The result of this study was made possible by the derivation of a distribution function of distances reached by fragments from bursting chemical car tanks. Data concerning fragments were obtained from reports of tank car pressure bursts between 1958 and 1971.

Siewert, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

Maine, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

NDE of structural ceramics

Radiographic, ultrasonic, scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM), and thermo-acoustic microscopy techniques were used to characterize silicon nitride and silicon carbide modulus-of-rupture test specimens in various stages of fabrication. Conventional and microfocus X-ray techniques were found capable of detecting minute high density inclusions in as-received powders, green compacts, and fully densified specimens. Significant density gradients in sintered bars were observed by radiography, ultrasonic velocity, and SLAM. Ultrasonic attenuation was found sensitive to microstructural variations due to grain and void morphology and distribution. SLAM was also capable of detecting voids, inclusions and cracks in finished test bars. Consideration is given to the potential for applying thermo-acoustic microscopy techniques to green and densified ceramics. The detection probability statistics and some limitations of radiography and SLAM also are discussed.

Klima, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

NDE of advanced ceramics

Radiographic, ultrasonic, and scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM) techniques were used to characterize silicon nitride and silicon carbide modulus-of-rupture test specimens in various stages of fabrication. Conventional and microfocus X-ray techniques were found capable of detecting minute high-density inclusions in as-received powders, green compacts, and fully densified specimens. Significant density gradients in sintered bars were observed by radiography, ultrasonic velocity, and SLAM. Ultrasonic attenuation was found sensitive to microstructural variations due to grain and void morphology and distribution. SLAM was capable also of detecting voids, inclusions, and cracks in finished test bars. Consideration is given to the potential for applying thermoacoustic microscopy techniques to green and densified ceramics. Some limitations and the detection probability statistics of the aforementioned nondestructive evaluation (NDE) processes are also discussed.

Klima, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

NDE of structural ceramics

Klima, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

In quest of lunar regolith breccias of exotic provenance - A uniquely anorthositic sample from the Fra Mauro (Apollo 14) highlands

Bulk compositions of 21 Apollo regolith breccias were determined using an INAA procedure modified from that of Kallemeyn et al. (1989). With one major exception, namely, the 14076,1 sample, the regolith breccias analyzed were found to be not significantly different from the surfaces from which they were collected. In contrast, the 14076,1 sample from the Fra Mauro (Apollo 14) region is a highly anorthositic regolith breccia from a site where anorthosites are extremely scarce. The sample's composition resembles soils from the Descartes (Apollo 16) highlands. However, the low statistical probability for long-distance horizontal transport by impact cratering, together with the relatively high contents of imcompatible elements in 14076,1 suggest that this regolith breccia originated within a few hundred kilometers of the Apollo 14 site. Its compositional resemblance to ferroan anorthosite strengthens the hypothesis that ferroan anorthosite originated as the flotation crust of a global magmasphere.

Jerde, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Terrestrial mantle siderophiles and the lunar impact record

Results of an analytical fit to the lunar cratering record are shown to be in good agreement with geochemical estimates of the meteoritic component mixed into the lunar crust. Upon a gravitational scaling to the earth consistent with the statistical probability that earth impactors were more massive than lunar ones, an estimate is obtained of 1.5 x 10 to the 22nd kg of material accumulated by the earth begining 4.4 Gyr ago. This is in excellent agreement with estimates of postcore-formation meteoritic input derived from geochemical considerations of the abundances of highly siderophile elements in the terrestrial mantle. Approximate agreement is therefore established between the lunar cratering record scaling and both lunar and terrestrial geochemical constraints.

Chyba, Christopher F.↗