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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35‐Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers

Low-lying coastal urban cities face significant flooding risks from river flooding (fluvial), storm surges and high tides (coastal), and intense local rainfall (pluvial). Accurately assessing these hazards requires modeling frameworks capable of capturing both the individual and combined effects of multiple flood drivers, as well as the diversity of flood scenarios that can arise from their interactions. In this study, we implemented a physics-based, high-resolution modeling approach to assess flood hazards in Philadelphia, PA, a coastal city exemplifying multi-driver flood risks over multiple decades (1985–2019), by simulating a wide range of flood events at a 10-m resolution. By integrating watershed, coastal, and urban flood models, we explicitly resolved the interaction between fluvial, pluvial, and coastal processes across the city. From these simulations, we identified flood hazard hotspots and systematically attributed the primary drivers of flooding for each event. The results suggested that 44% of Philadelphia's flood events were compound floods, primarily driven by fluvial-surge and fluvial-pluvial combinations. Notably, 77% of these events involved fluvial flooding, either as a single flood driver or in combination with other drivers, underscoring the dominant role of riverine processes in the city's flood hazard. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of a comprehensive, process-based approach for urban flood hazard assessment and highlights the importance of considering the full spectrum of flood scenarios to inform targeted and adaptive flood management strategies in coastal cities.

Compound flooding↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accelerated Carbon and Water Cycles in the Amazon and Congo Basins Revealed From TRENDY Models and Remote Sensing Products

Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle and land–atmosphere interactions. Estimating tropical forest carbon–water dynamics is challenging due to observational and modeling uncertainties. This study leverages the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project models and satellite observations to assess changes (2003–2021) in vegetation carbon, gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and net biosphere production (NBP) in the Amazon and Congo. Atmospheric CO 2 , climate variability, and land use and land cover changes constrain these variables between 1700 and 2021 with the overall increasing trends of carbon stock and fluxes. The models overestimate vegetation carbon and GPP, while ET and NBP are consistent with observations. Fire-activated models predict lower values for vegetation carbon and GPP, ET, and NBP, aligning more closely with observations. The higher ET from fire-activated models may result from enhanced soil evaporation due to increased canopy openings. Fire-inactivated models could well estimate the magnitudes of NBP. The high vegetation carbon in nitrogen-enabled models points to simulation uncertainties and imbalance in model numbers regarding the nitrogen cycle. Although the nitrogen cycle enhances water use efficiency in both the Amazon and Congo, the models show a higher sensitivity to the nitrogen cycle in the Congo. This study highlights the challenges in accurately representing tropical biogeochemical cycles and the values of satellite products in model evaluations, underscoring the need for standard modeling protocols that address biogeochemical components (e.g., nutrient cycles) to better resolve process-based representations.

Shi, Mingjie [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

Urban Land Surface Effects on Summertime Clouds and Moist Convection in Houston Under Different Synoptic Conditions

Urban landscapes modify cloud formation and convection through complex thermodynamic and aerodynamic processes; however, their influence under different synoptic regimes remains poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of the Houston metropolitan area on summertime cloud cover and convective cell characteristics using a combination of satellite observations, radar data, and high-resolution process-based modeling. We isolate urban effects by comparing model simulations with realistic urban land cover against hypothetical scenarios where all urban areas are replaced by rural vegetation. Results reveal that Houston's land cover consistently enhances cloud fraction and convective activity relative to surrounding rural areas, altered by large-scale meteorological forcing. Under weakly forced conditions, enhanced surface heat flux primarily contributes to driving low-level convergence and vertical ascent, leading to over 8% cloud fraction increase between 2 and 6 km over the city. Under strongly forced conditions, urban influences manifest differently depending on cloud type. For non-convective clouds, the city acts as a barrier that decelerates and lifts moist southerly inflow, increasing low cloud cover over the urban core, while decreasing it downwind the city. For convective clouds, both synoptic ascent and urbanization modulate moisture redistribution and cloud structure, producing modest cloud enhancement over the city and slight suppression over the downwind area. Urbanization exerts small changes in the intensity of the convective cells; however, it significantly decreases their duration and traveling distance. This work highlights the importance of accounting for land surface heterogeneity in modeling clouds and precipitation and demonstrates that urban impacts on clouds are highly regime-dependent.

Liu, Ye [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PN↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations and modeling reveal that heatwaves reduce photosynthesis, plant carbon reserves, and net carbon uptake

Heatwaves threaten ecosystem carbon balances, yet the mechanisms driving short-term carbon flux responses remain poorly understood. Here, integrating high-frequency eddy covariance (EC) data from 140 global flux tower sites (872 site-years) with detailed process-based modeling, we examine ecosystem responses during and immediately after heatwaves. We show that heatwaves caused a −40% (range [−29%, −128%]) reduction in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) compared to pre-heatwave values, with this reduction persisting over the following two weeks (−38% range [+3%, −154%]). We attributed NEP decreases to photosynthesis decreases more than to ecosystem respiration (RE) increases. Forest sites had greater NEP decreases during heatwaves than non-forest sites, but remained carbon sinks afterwards, indicating resilience. Our modeling analysis of extreme heatwaves at selected EC sites shows that decreased photosynthesis, increased maintenance respiration, and decreased plant non-structural carbon reserves during heatwaves drive carbon cycle changes that persist for weeks. Consistent with phenocam observations, we modeled a reduction in leaf area index caused by reduced non-structural carbon reserves, leading to early leaf senescence and longer-term impacts. Ongoing increases in heatwaves are therefore likely to reduce NEP across a range of ecosystems, exacerbating carbon cycle feedback.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of daily gridded climate products using in situ FLUXNET data and tree growth modeling

Gridded climate data products have facilitated research in climate and ecology by providing meteorological data continuously across large spatial scales. However, the sensitivity of scientific outcomes to dataset choice remains poorly understood, and evaluation using station-based records can favor datasets built heavily on weather stations. Here, we evaluate seven high-resolution daily gridded datasets covering the contiguous United States using independent meteorology from the FLUXNET2015 dataset, with a focus on the implications of dataset choice for process-based tree growth modeling. We find that gridded products tend to capture temperature accurately while consistently overestimating the magnitude and frequency of precipitation and its extremes. Moreover, datasets vary in how they define a ‘day,’ which significantly affects temporal alignment with FLUXNET2015 observations. Despite differences among the datasets, the interannual variability in tree ring simulations is insensitive to dataset choice, likely because daily-scale biases are averaged out through accumulated growth across several months. However, inaccuracies in temperature and precipitation can significantly bias modeled xylem cell production, with systematically higher annual precipitation in the gridded datasets leading to greater xylem production compared to simulations using in situ data. Our results suggest that model applications, especially those that integrate to time scales longer than one day, are likely insensitive to climate dataset choice, but applications that are sensitive to daily climate variations or to absolute climate values need to carefully consider biases in gridded climate products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

N 2 Onet: a global collaborative network facilitating advances in measurement, modeling, and mitigation of agricultural soil nitrous oxide emissions

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer supports global food production, but its use and overuse drive emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas. Understanding the drivers of N 2 O fluxes remains elusive, making it difficult to predict emissions in time and space and to develop and evaluate ways to lower emissions through management. Major scientific uncertainties underlying the understanding of the drivers of N 2 O fluxes identified in a workshop of N 2 O emissions experts include poor process-based understanding of controls on soil N 2 O emissions in the field; insufficient data to reduce uncertainty in N 2 O budgets from the field to regional scales, including N 2 O emission measurements and importantly, field-scale N balances; and high uncertainty in model predictions of soil N 2 O emissions across environmental and management conditions. To reduce these uncertainties, we present the concept of N 2 Onet, a global collaborative initiative to accelerate advances in N 2 O measurement, analyses, and mitigation. N 2 Onet will serve as an observational network of supersites with multi-scale measurements; a database hub for N 2 O flux and ancillary data; and a catalyst for community building, information sharing, and training. By coalescing and coordinating the global community of researchers, N 2 Onet will provide a roadmap for reducing N 2 O emissions from agriculture worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Decadal Dynamics of Wetland Methane Emissions Revealed by Knowledge‐Guided Machine Learning

Measurement of methane fluxes (FCH 4 ) from natural systems, such as wetlands, has lagged far behind carbon dioxide fluxes. Short and fragmented wetland FCH 4 data limit our ability to assess its long-term dynamics and potential climate feedbacks. Extrapolating short-term FCH 4 records to recent decades remains challenging for both process-based models and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches. Here, we develop a knowledge-guided ML framework that integrates eddy covariance (EC) FCH 4 observations, field warming experiments, and biogeochemical knowledge to reconstruct the long-term FCH 4 budgets and trends. Focusing on the 11 longest EC monitoring sites in the AmeriFlux network, we found considerable variability in multi-decadal trends of wetland FCH 4 , with increases up to 14% per decade from 2000 to 2024. We also found that the strength of these increasing trends declines from high to low latitudes, highlighting the vulnerability of northern wetlands. This work presents novel and robust reconstructions of long-term wetland FCH 4 , offering critical benchmark datasets for bottom-up ecosystem models and advancing fundamental understanding of wetland biogeochemistry.

AmeriFlux site↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Pasture Conversion to Sugarcane on Water Fluxes and Water Use Efficiency in the Southeastern US

The expansion of sugarcane (cane), a high-yielding perennial crop, will likely reshape the bioenergy landscape in the Southeastern US. However, its ecohydrological implications, particularly following conversion from grazed pastures, a dominant land use in the region, remain highly uncertain. We investigated the impact of cane expansion on evapotranspiration (ET) and its partitioning, and the mechanisms influencing both ET components and water use efficiency (WUE) across multiple scales and growth cycles in subtropical Florida. We combined eddy covariance, biometric measurements, and process-based stomatal conductance (g s ) models. ET was 1.7% lower in cane than in improved pasture (IMP) but exceeded that in semi-native pasture (SN) by 21%. Transpiration (T) followed a similar pattern, consistent with lower g s in cane relative to IMP. Cane had more conservative water use and greater sensitivity of g s to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) compared to IMP pasture, suggesting cane may be more tolerant of increasing atmospheric water demand. In contrast, SN showed lower g s and weaker stomatal sensitivity to VPD compared to cane, resulting in lower T. In cane, stomatal regulation and T varied across growth cycles, with stomata becoming less water conservative as stands matured, highlighting the importance of incorporating stand age-dependent stomatal regulation into hydrological models. Evaporation (E) was higher in cane than pastures (19%–26%), partially offsetting WUE gains. Cane exhibited higher intrinsic WUE (GPP/g s ; Gross Primary Productivity), ecosystem WUE (GPP/ET), and harvest WUE (harvest/ET) than both pasture types. Large-scale pasture-to-cane conversion could produce widely contrasting hydrological outcomes. The net regional impact will depend on the proportion of each pasture type converted and on cane's high g s sensitivity to VPD, which triggers tight stomatal regulation and conservative water use, both of which will become increasingly consequential under intensifying atmospheric water demand.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evapotranspiration partitioning estimates from 8 methods from 47 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides daily estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) and the transpiration-to-evapotranspiration ratio (T/ET) across 47 terrestrial National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites spanning diverse environmental and biome conditions in the United States across three years of data (2019-2021). Daily ET is reported in both energy units (MJ m⁻² day⁻¹) and equivalent water depth (mm day⁻¹), assuming a constant latent heat of vaporization of 2.45 MJ/kg. The primary method uses a hybrid recurrent neural network–Penman–Monteith framework (RNN-PM), which integrates physically based surface energy balance constraints with data-driven learning to partition ET into transpiration and evaporation components. Model inputs include in situ meteorological observations (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, wind speed, and radiation) combined with satellite-derived land surface temperature, leaf area index, and soil moisture. For benchmarking and uncertainty assessment, T/ET estimates from seven additional models are included: Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), Penman-Monteith (P-M), Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), among others—spanning empirical, machine-learning, and process-based approaches (see methods section or linked publication for detailed descriptions). Data Package Contents: The dataset a csv files containing daily ET and T/ET estimates for each site and model, along with associated metadata files these variables. Data can be accessed using common spreadsheet software (e.g., Microsoft Excel, LibreOffice) or programming environments such as R or Python. Together, these data support cross-site comparisons of ecosystem water use, evaluation of ET partitioning methods, and development of improved land–atmosphere exchange models.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global compilation of soil methane uptake measurements from 1984 to 2018

This data package contains a global compilation of soil methane uptake measurements collected from published field studies between 1989 and 2022. The dataset was developed to support machine learning (ML) estimation of the global terrestrial methane soil sink and includes monthly methane uptake rates, measurement dates, site coordinates, and associated ecosystem information from different ecosystems. Data were compiled from 164 peer-reviewed publications across approximately 260 study sites, resulting in ~12,000 monthly observations after quality control screening and removal of manipulated experimental treatments. The database was further processed to generate site-averaged methane uptake estimates for comparison between process-based (PB) and ML models.

earth science↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the impact of water uptake on light absorption by aerosol particles

Absorbing aerosols (AA) have an important impact on the global radiation budget. The composition and properties of AA can vary substantially throughout the atmosphere, depending on the particle source and the influence of chemical aging. Uncertainties associated with the radiative effects of AA remain substantial. A key contributor to this uncertainty is understanding the extent to which water uptake alters absorption by AA particles and how this depends on particle composition. We have used new and existing experimental tools to systematically characterize the relationship(s) between AA chemical and physical characteristics, relative humidity, and mixing of AA with other aerosol components through a combination of laboratory and field measurements. We have developed fundamental understanding through laboratory experiments that will enable interpretation of field observations at DOE ARM sites and facilitate process-based improvements in the simulation of absorption by carbonaceous aerosols in climate models. In the laboratory experiments we have considered a variety of different AA types, including fullerene soot (a surrogate for refractory black carbon, or BC) and nigrosine (a surrogate for partially soluble brown carbon, or BrC). By examining a range of AA types we will develop insight into how the chemical and physical properties of AA particles (e.g. whether they are refractory or soluble) impact the influence of water uptake on absorption. These AA particles will also be mixed—both internally and externally—with compounds having a wide range of hygroscopic properties to establish how the impact of water uptake on absorption will vary with photochemical processing. These laboratory observations have been compared with commonly used theoretical models, enabling development of empirical models that will facilitate improved representation of absorption by AA particles in regional and global climate models. Overall, our study has contributed to the mission of the Atmospheric System Research program by quantifying how interactions between aerosols and radiation depend on relative humidity. Through this, our work will improve understanding and model representation of aerosol processes as they affect the Earth’s radiation budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-frequency Data Integration for Landscape Model Calibration of Carbon Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Marshes

Terrestrial Aquatic Interfaces (TAIs), and tidal wetlands in particular, store large amounts of carbon yet are not well represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Predictions of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. Eddy covariance (EC) towers provide ecosystem-scale GHG flux data at a temporal resolution (every 30min) that is helpful for parameterizing and improving mechanistic realism in ESMs. We propose to use a network of eddy covariance towers and standardized ancillary data streams, along with mesocosm experiments and statistical analyses, across diverse tidal wetlands of North America to develop and improve biogeochemical modeling at the TAI. Our overarching objective is to improve understanding and process-based modeling of gross primary productivity (GPP) and CH4 emission responses, both non-linear and asynchronous, to stressors including plant inundation, disturbance, salinity and nitrogen loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Life Cycle Inventories and Data Gap Analysis for Rare Earth Elements: Neodymium and Dysprosium from Mining to Magnets

The United States demand for Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets, produced from rare earth elements (REEs) such as (Nd) and Dysprosium (Dy), far exceeds its nascent domestic production capacity, rendering it reliant on vulnerable global supply chains dominated by China. To guide research and development investments in securing U.S. REE supply, defensible benchmark metrics across environmental, economic, and social dimensions are needed. In this study, we built globally-representative, process-based cradle-to-cradle life cycle inventories for Nd and Dy in NdFeB magnets lifecycles, encompassing primary material acquisition, beneficiation, smelting and refining, metal processing, specialty alloy and chemical transformation, subcomponent manufacturing, consumer application (use phase) and end-of-life management. We carried out detailed literature review, and applied process engineering principles to build industry-representative upscaled life cycle inventories for both metals. We used these models to conduct bottom-up literature review and gap analysis on existing literature, compilation of data sources for each life cycle stage (and transformations where necessary), and a preliminary technoeconomic analysis (TEA)/life cycle costing analysis (LCCA). Findings from this work emphasize the need for metal specific, representative REE LCIs to establish robust benchmarks for advancing sustainable REE technologies and guiding R&D in REE supply chains.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge Graph for End-to-End Traceability of an Integrated Human-Earth System Model

Integrated human-Earth system models inform energy-water-land system dynamics and policies, yet their results are difficult to trace through input-data, model structure, scenario configurations, and solved outputs. Because this information is siloed across disconnected artifacts, process-based IAMs have historically lacked a unified, queryable representation. Such lack of traceability prevents researchers from systematically isolating the multi-sector drivers of complex outcomes (such as tracing water-scarcity results back to distant energy-system dynamics) or conducting holistic uncertainty attribution across hundreds of interacting parameters. To address this concern, our work documents the software engineering process of a knowledge graph that unifies these four layers for the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA_Reference scenario, GCAM v9.1). The graph was built as a relational property graph in DuckDB from the run’s own artifacts: the input-preparation dependency map (gcamdata chunk map), the model’s XML input files, the run configuration, and the results database (BaseX), successfully mapping the model’s declared structure. The resulting graph comprises 204,321 nodes and 1,687,814 edges across 16 node types and 15 edge types, with approximately 16.3 million time-series values stored separately to maintain structural efficiency. To ensure representation fidelity, every edge carries an epistemic-status annotation recording the warrant for the relationship (structural, provenance, dependency, or model-derived), and a machine-readable provenance ledger classifying the origin of every schema element. Evaluation against a fixed five-benchmark suite with locked baselines reports zero structural orphans, zero dangling edge endpoints, and 100% of output-producing technologies traceable to raw input files. Two interactive interfaces present the graph, including a serverless browser application built on DuckDB-Wasm. By establishing the first end-to-end provenance framework for an IAM, this work enables researchers and scientists to systematically audit complex policy scenarios, debug model structures, and trace policy-relevant outputs to their data origins in real time.

Artifical Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗