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25 records · Page 2
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NASA NTRS2013

Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S.

This paper and poster presented a description of the current real-time SPoRT-LIS run over the southeastern CONUS to provide high-resolution, land surface initialization grids for local numerical model forecasts at NWS forecast offices. The LIS hourly output also offers a supplemental dataset to aid in situational awareness for convective initiation forecasts, assessing flood potential, and monitoring drought at fine scales. It is a goal of SPoRT and several NWS forecast offices to expand the LIS to an entire CONUS domain, so that LIS output can be utilized by NWS Western Region offices, among others. To make this expansion cleanly so as to provide high-quality land surface output, SPoRT tested new precipitation datasets in LIS as an alternative forcing dataset to the current radar+gauge Stage IV product. Similar to the Stage IV product, the NMQ product showed comparable patterns of precipitation and soil moisture distribution, but suffered from radar gaps in the intermountain West, and incorrectly set values to zero instead of missing in the data-void regions of Mexico and Canada. The other dataset tested was the next-generation GOES-R QPE algorithm, which experienced a high bias in both coverage and intensity of accumulated precipitation relative to the control (NLDAS2), Stage IV, and NMQ simulations. The resulting root zone soil moisture was substantially higher in most areas.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Expansion of the Real-time Sport-land Information System for NOAA / National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL (Jedlovec 2013; Ralph et al. 2013; Merceret et al. 2013) is running a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework (hereafter referred to as the "SPoRT-LIS"). Output from the real-time SPoRT-LIS is used for (1) initializing land surface variables for local modeling applications, and (2) displaying in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices. The SPoRT-LIS is currently run over a domain covering the southeastern half of the Continental United States (CONUS), with an additional experimental real-time run over the entire CONUS and surrounding portions of southern Canada and northern Mexico. The experimental CONUS run incorporates hourly quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi- Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) product (Zhang et al. 2011, 2014), which will be transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Fall 2014. This paper describes the current and experimental SPoRT-LIS configurations, and documents some of the limitations still remaining through the advent of MRMS precipitation analyses in the SPoRT-LIS land surface model (LSM) simulations. Section 2 gives background information on the NASA LIS and describes the realtime SPoRT-LIS configurations being compared. Section 3 presents recent work done to develop a training module on situational awareness applications of real-time SPoRT-LIS output. Comparisons between output from the two SPoRT-LIS runs are shown in Section 4, including a documentation of issues encountered in using the MRMS precipitation dataset. A summary and future work in given in Section 5, followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Expansion of the Real-Time SPoRT-Land Information System for NOAA/National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework (hereafter referred to as the "SPoRT-LIS"). Output from the real-time SPoRT-LIS is used for (1) initializing land surface variables for local modeling applications, and (2) displaying in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices. The experimental CONUS run incorporates hourly quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi- Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) which will be transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Fall 2014.This paper describes the current and experimental SPoRT-LIS configurations, and documents some of the limitations still remaining through the advent of MRMS precipitation analyses in the SPoRT-LIS land surface model (LSM) simulations.

Case, Jonathan L↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Precipitation Detection over Various Surfaces from Passive Microwave Imagers and Sounders

During the middle part of this decade a wide variety of passive microwave imagers and sounders will be unified in the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission to provide a common basis for frequent (3 hr), global precipitation monitoring. The ability of these sensors to detect precipitation by discerning it from non-precipitating background depends upon the channels available and characteristics of the surface and atmosphere. This study quantifies the minimum detectable precipitation rate and fraction of precipitation detected for four representative instruments (TMI, GMI, AMSU-A, and AMSU-B) that will be part of the GPM constellation. Observations for these instruments were constructed from equivalent channels on the SSMIS instrument on DMSP satellites F16 and F17 and matched to precipitation data from NOAA's National Mosaic and QPE (NMQ) during 2009 over the continuous United States. A variational optimal estimation retrieval of non-precipitation surface and atmosphere parameters was used to determine the consistency between the observed brightness temperatures and these parameters, with high cost function values shown to be related to precipitation. The minimum detectable precipitation rate, defined as the lowest rate for which probability of detection exceeds 50%, and the detected fraction of precipitation, are reported for each sensor, surface type (ocean, coast, bare land, snow cover) and precipitation type (rain, mix, snow). The best sensors over ocean and bare land were GMI (0.22 mm/hr minimum threshold and 90% of precipitation detected) and AMSU (0.26 mm/hr minimum threshold and 81% of precipitation detected), respectively. Over coasts (0.74 mm/hr threshold and 12% detected) and snow-covered surfaces (0.44 mm/hr threshold and 23% detected), AMSU again performed best but with much lower detection skill, whereas TMI had no skill over these surfaces. The sounders (particularly over water) benefited from the use of re-analysis data (vs. climatology) to set the a-priori atmospheric state and all instruments benefit from the use of a conditional snow cover emissivity database over land. It is recommended that real-time sources of these data be used in the operational GPM precipitation algorithms.

GPM↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF): Its Use in NWS Forecast Operations and Preliminary Verification

The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near‐realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9‐km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF‐ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012‐2013 and 2013‐2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band‐width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6‐hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6‐hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the ExREF in preparing their rainfall forecasts. Preliminary results will be presented.

Reynolds, David↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA SPoRT-Land Information System and Vegetation Stress Real-Time Products for Drought, Wildfire, and Pluvial Analysis

The NASA SPoRT Center has been producing a near real-time instance of the NASA Land Information System over a CONUS domain (hereafter “SPoRT-LIS”) since ~2015. The SPoRT-LIS runs the legacy Noah LSM in an observations-constrained manner, with outputs of soil moisture and temperature at layered depths along with surface energy fluxes. The unique configuration of SPoRT-LIS enables decision-making on operational timescales since it incorporates near real-time observations such as VIIRS Green Vegetation Fraction and MRMS QPE. An additional in-house Alaska-LIS is produced in real time to help inform end-users on spring snow melt and summer soil moisture trends during the wildfire season. Use of the SPoRT-LIS has gradually expanded in recent years as a component of drought analysis, feedback to the USDM, and is utilized by State Climate Offices. Operational feedback has led to increased applicability for analyses by other end-users in the drought community. This presentation will provide SPoRT-LIS applications for drought, pluvial, and fire weather case-studies. We will also present preliminary results of 2-week SPoRT-LIS forecast percentiles that were recently implemented using GFS model forecast fields. We will additionally discuss the pathway toward extending these forecasts into the future by incorporating ensemble forecasts for probabilistic guidance on soil moisture trends for potential flash drought and subseasonal outlooks.

Soil Moisture↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗