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DOE OSTI2025

Cross-cutting strategies to lower electricity use of miscellaneous electric loads in the domestic sector

Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) account for roughly one quarter of building electricity use in most developed countries. A product-specific approach to lowering MELs electricity use in this category takes too long and costs too much because there are so many MELs, each providing unique services. An alternative approach focusing on key functionalities was therefore explored. These functionalities include: (1) power management, (2) power scaling, and (3) power conversion. Cross-cutting efficiency improvements to these functionalities can be incorporated into broad categories of MELs, thus saving electricity and lowering costs. Even though the population of MELs is diverse and rapidly evolving, major technical opportunities exist to improve their efficiency in these functionalities. Research into energy-saving solutions within the cross-cutting technologies will probably have larger savings than focusing on single products.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of model predictive control-enabled home energy management on large-scale distribution systems with photovoltaics

Residential customers use more than one-quarter of the electricity in the world. Optimally managing home energy consumption is an effective way of easing the operational challenges facing the electric grid with increasing solar photovoltaics (PV). This paper studies the impact of the future proliferation of home energy management systems (HEMS) in the presence of PV on large-scale distribution systems. First, we present a stochastic HEMS model that minimizes residential customers' thermal discomfort and energy costs under uncertainty. The HEMS model schedules the optimal operations of residential appliances in the presence of PV within a mixed-integer linear programming-based model predictive control framework that links the proposed HEMS to a quasi-steady-state time-series simulation tool. Additionally, extensive simulations are conducted for a stand-alone residential home using two tariff structures and for 1977 homes on an 8,500-node distribution feeder. Simulation results quantify the impact of the future proliferation of HEMS on the large-scale distribution system with PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Long-term impact of electrification and retrofits of the U.S residential building in diverse locations

The U.S. buildings sector contributes 30% of operational carbon emissions, with residential buildings accounting for 56%. Reducing residential carbon emissions is crucial for achieving net-zero carbon goal. While many studies examine energy efficiency retrofit (EER) and electrification, few explore their long-term impacts across diverse climates and dynamic grid clean energy penetrations, as well as their economic effects on households. Here, this study proposes a method to assess how EER and electrification affect long-term decarbonization and economics across different climates, focusing on carbon emissions, energy burden (the percentage of household income spent on energy), and payback period in four locations: Tampa, San Diego, Denver, and Great Falls. The study also introduces the concept of implicit energy burden by considering investment costs. Results show that while electrification can reduce long-term emissions with increased clean energy penetration, it may not always achieve decarbonization due to mismatches between clean energy availability and demand. In cooling-dominant locations, electrification lowers energy burden and peak demand, but in heating-dominant locations, it increases energy burden to 8.24%, raises peak demand by 632.78%, and shifts it from summer to winter. After integrating investment costs, the implicit energy burden can reach 8.35% in cold climates. For already highly electrified buildings in Denver and Great Falls, the payback period of EER measures can be shortened by up to 48.98%. The study highlights a tradeoff between decarbonization and energy burden alleviation, showing that while EER measures can reduce the energy burden, they only achieve one-quarter of the carbon emission reduction of electrification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Influence of overhead HVAC and aerosol control strategies on coarse mode particle dispersion and exposure in a full-scale room experiment

Coarse mode respiratory aerosols can carry viral loads over long distances and have very different dynamics than submicron particles, but experimental studies under realistic conditions remain limited. Here, to study the differential impacts on exposure under different mixing conditions, we co-released 7–10 µm particles and carbon dioxide (CO 2 )—which served as an indicator of gas and submicron particle dynamics—in a 158 m 3 room at LBNL's FLEXLAB facility with an overhead heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. The room was arranged as a distanced meeting then a classroom with eight heated manikins and a researcher. Spatial variability was measured using 16 particle counters and 22–26 CO 2 sensors throughout the space. Conditions included: HVAC off or supply air at 1000-1060 m 3 h -1 at neutral, cooling, or heating temperatures; with and without 20% outdoor air; and added HVAC filtration, portable air cleaners (PACs), or a physical barrier between the speaker and occupants. We found that good mixing via neutral or cooling supply air or use of PACs under heating lowered coarse particle exposure at some locations, but increased exposure for one-quarter to two-thirds of manikins compared to poor mixing under heating. A physical barrier reduced direct transfer of coarse particles during heating, but less during cooling. High spatial variability shows that a single measurement cannot represent occupant exposure. Instantaneous air mixing assumptions overstate the effectiveness of ventilation, HVAC filtration, and upper-room germicidal ultraviolet disinfection for coarse particles, as relatively few particles reach the return grille or upper room under most conditions.

Air mixing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nucleation and Initial Stages of Growth during the Atomic Layer Deposition of Titanium Oxide on Mesoporous Silica

A chemical approach to the deposition of thin films on solid surfaces is highly desirable but prone to affect the final properties of the film. To better understand the origin of these complications, the initial stages of the atomic layer deposition of titania films on silica mesoporous materials were characterized. Adsorption-desorption measurements indicated that the films grow in a layer-by-layer fashion, as desired, but initially exhibit surprisingly low densities, about one-quarter of that of bulk titanium oxide. Electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, UV/visible, and X-ray absorption spectroscopy data pointed to the amorphous nature of the first monolayers, and EXAFS and 29 Si CP/MAS NMR results to an initial growth via the formation of individual tetrahedral Ti-oxide units on isolated Si-OH surface groups with unusually long Ti-O bonds. Here, density functional theory calculations were used to propose a mechanism where the film growth starts at the nucleation centers to form an open 2D structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Diffusion Mechanism of Ge During Oxidation of Si/SiGe Nanofins

A recently discovered, enhanced Ge diffusion mechanism along the oxidizing interface of Si/SiGe nanostructures has enabled the formation of single-crystal Si nanowires and quantum dots embedded in a defect-free, single-crystal SiGe matrix. Here, we report oxidation studies of Si/SiGe nanofins aimed at gaining a better understanding of this novel diffusion mechanism. Here, a superlattice of alternating Si/Si 0.7 Ge 0.3 layers was grown and patterned into fins. After oxidation of the fins, the rate of Ge diffusion down the Si/SiO 2 interface was measured through the analysis of HAADF-STEM images. The activation energy for the diffusion of Ge down the sidewall was found to be 1.1 eV, which is less than one-quarter of the activation energy previously reported for Ge diffusion in bulk Si. Through a combination of experiments and DFT calculations, we propose that the redistribution of Ge occurs by diffusion along the Si/SiO 2 interface followed by a reintroduction into substitutional positions in the crystalline Si.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chemical Characterization of Natural Gas Leaking from Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells in Western Pennsylvania

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that there are over 3.2 million abandoned wells in the United States. Studies conducted on gas emissions from abandoned wells have been limited to methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, due to concerns regarding climate change. However, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including benzene, a known human carcinogen, are known to be associated with upstream oil and gas development and hence could also be released when methane is emitted to the atmosphere. In this investigation, we analyze gas from 48 abandoned wells in western Pennsylvania for fixed gases, light hydrocarbons, and VOCs and estimate associated emission rates. We demonstrate that (1) gas from abandoned wells contains VOCs, including benzene; (2) VOCs are emitted from abandoned wells, the magnitude of which depends on the flow rate and concentration of VOCs in the gas stream; and (3) nearly one-quarter of abandoned wells are located within 100 m of buildings, including residences, in Pennsylvania. Together, these observations indicate that further investigation is necessary to determine whether emissions from abandoned wells pose an inhalation risk to people living, working, or congregating near abandoned wells.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Co-Occurring Atmospheric Features and Their Contributions to Precipitation Extremes

Object-based identification algorithms for atmospheric features are commonly utilized to attribute global precipitation. This study employs a systematic approach to examine feature co-occurrences and their relationships to mean and extreme precipitation. Four features are identified using existing data sets for atmospheric rivers (ARs), mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), low-pressure systems (LPSs), and fronts (FTs). Often, a single atmospheric phenomenon satisfies the criteria set by multiple feature identification algorithms, yielding an association between precipitation and multiple features. Over the extra-tropics, the number of features attributed to a single event typically increases with precipitation intensity. Over two-thirds of the precipitation is from co-occurring features, with a considerable fraction related to AR-FT co-occurrences. Over the tropics, about one-quarter of precipitation is associated with co-occurring features, with LPS-MCS co-occurrences contributing substantially in monsoon regions. MCSs are the leading single-feature contributors over tropical land and oceans. In the extra-tropics, FTs, ARs, and their co-occurrences account for over half of the total precipitation over oceans. AR-FT-MCS and FT-MCS co-occurrences contribute to extremes (precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile) over both oceans (over 30%) and land (over 20%). Any combination of features involving MCSs shows a larger contribution to high percentiles of precipitation intensity. A case analysis indicates that AR-FT-MCS co-occurrences exhibit convective instability and deep vertical motion, suggesting that the feature trackers and reanalysis are capturing physics relevant to both convective and frontal systems. The results here emphasize the need for simultaneous identifications of multiple features when attributing precipitation to atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Permafrost microbial communities and functional genes are structured by latitudinal and soil geochemical gradients

Permafrost underlies approximately one quarter of Northern Hemisphere terrestrial surfaces and contains 25–50% of the global soil carbon (C) pool. Permafrost soils and the C stocks within are vulnerable to ongoing and future projected climate warming. The biogeography of microbial communities inhabiting permafrost has not been examined beyond a small number of sites focused on local-scale variation. Permafrost is different from other soils. Perennially frozen conditions in permafrost dictate that microbial communities do not turn over quickly, thus possibly providing strong linkages to past environments. Thus, the factors structuring the composition and function of microbial communities may differ from patterns observed in other terrestrial environments. Here, we analyzed 133 permafrost metagenomes from North America, Europe, and Asia. Permafrost biodiversity and taxonomic distribution varied in relation to pH, latitude and soil depth. The distribution of genes differed by latitude, soil depth, age, and pH. Genes that were the most highly variable across all sites were associated with energy metabolism and C-assimilation. Specifically, methanogenesis, fermentation, nitrate reduction, and replenishment of citric acid cycle intermediates. This suggests that adaptations to energy acquisition and substrate availability are among some of the strongest selective pressures shaping permafrost microbial communities. The spatial variation in metabolic potential has primed communities for specific biogeochemical processes as soils thaw due to climate change, which could cause regional- to global- scale variation in C and nitrogen processing and greenhouse gas emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced surface urban heat islands due to divergent urban-rural greening trends

Abstract Satellite observations show that the surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) has been increasing over the last two decades. This is often accompanied by an increased urban-rural contrast of vegetation greenness. However, the contribution of uneven vegetation trends in urban and rural areas to the trend of SUHII is unclear, due to the confounding effects of climate change and changes in man-made infrastructures and anthropogenic heat sources. Here we use a data-model fusion approach to quantify such contributions during the peak growing season. We show that the LAI dif (the urban-rural difference of leaf area index) is increasing ( P < 0.05) in 189 of the selected 228 global megacities. The increasing trend of LAI dif from 2000 to 2019 accounts for about one quarter of the trend in satellite-derived SUHII, and the impact is particularly evident in places with rapid urbanization and rural cropland intensification. The marginal sensitivity of SUHII to LAI dif is the strongest in hot-humid megacities surrounded by croplands and in hot-dry megacities surrounded by mixed woody and herbaceous vegetation. Our study highlights the role of long-term vegetation trends in modulating the trends of urban-rural temperature differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear transmission of laser light through coronal plasma due to self-induced incoherence

The success of direct laser-driven inertial con nement fusion (ICF) relies critically on the efficient coupling of laser light to plasma. At ignition scale, the absolute stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) instability can severely inhibit this coupling by redirecting and strongly depleting laser light. This article describes a new dynamic saturation regime of the absolute SRS instability near one quarter of the critical density. The saturation occurs when spatiotemporal ion-acoustic fluctuations in the plasma density detune the instability resonance. Here, the dynamic saturation mitigates the strong depletion of laser light and enhances its transmission through the instability region, explaining the coupling of laser light to ICF targets at higher plasma densities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Floquet Insulators and Lattice Fermions

Floquet insulators are periodically driven quantum systems that can host novel topological phases as a function of the drive parameters. These new phases exhibit features reminiscent of fermion doubling in discrete-time lattice fermion theories. We make this suggestion concrete by mapping the spectrum of a noninteracting (1+1)D Floquet insulator for certain drive parameters onto that of a discrete-time lattice fermion theory with a time-independent Hamiltonian. The resulting Hamiltonian is distinct from the Floquet Hamiltonian that generates stroboscopic dynamics. Finally, it can take the form of a discrete-time Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model with half the number of spatial sites of the original model, or of a (1+1)D Wilson-Dirac theory with one quarter of the spatial sites.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Defining the Sphagnum Core Microbiome across the North American Continent Reveals a Central Role for Diazotrophic Methanotrophs in the Nitrogen and Carbon Cycles of Boreal Peatland Ecosystems

Peat mosses of the genus Sphagnum are ecosystem engineers that frequently predominate over photosynthetic production in boreal peatlands. Sphagnum spp. host diverse microbial communities capable of nitrogen fixation (diazotrophy) and methane oxidation (methanotrophy), thereby potentially supporting plant growth under severely nutrient-limited conditions. Moreover, diazotrophic methanotrophs represent a possible “missing link” between the carbon and nitrogen cycles, but the functional contributions of the Sphagnum-associated microbiome remain in question. A combination of metagenomics, metatranscriptomics, and dual-isotope incorporation assays was applied to investigate Sphagnum microbiome community composition across the North American continent and provide empirical evidence for diazotrophic methanotrophy in Sphagnum-dominated ecosystems. Remarkably consistent prokaryotic communities were detected in over 250 Sphagnum SSU rRNA libraries from peatlands across the United States (5 states, 17 bog/fen sites, 18 Sphagnum species), with 12 genera of the core microbiome comprising 60% of the relative microbial abundance. Additionally, nitrogenase (nifH) and SSU rRNA gene amplicon analysis revealed that nitrogen-fixing populations made up nearly 15% of the prokaryotic communities, predominated by Nostocales cyanobacteria and Rhizobiales methanotrophs. While cyanobacteria comprised the vast majority (>95%) of diazotrophs detected in amplicon and metagenome analyses, obligate methanotrophs of the genus Methyloferula (order Rhizobiales) accounted for one-quarter of transcribed nifH genes. Furthermore, in dual-isotope tracer experiments, members of the Rhizobiales showed substantial incorporation of 13 CH 4 and 15 N 2 isotopes into their rRNA. Our study characterizes the core Sphagnum microbiome across large spatial scales and indicates that diazotrophic methanotrophs, here defined as obligate methanotrophs of the rare biosphere (Methyloferula spp. of the Rhizobiales) that also carry out diazotrophy, play a keystone role in coupling of the carbon and nitrogen cycles in nutrient-poor peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MLClouds [SWR-24-24]

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is NREL’s flagship solar data resource. With over 20 years of high-resolution surface irradiance data covering most of the western hemisphere, the NSRDB is a crucial public data asset. A fundamental input to accurate surface irradiance in the NSRDB is high quality cloud property data. Cloud properties are used in radiative transfer calculations and are sourced from satellite imagery. Improving the accuracy of cloud property inputs is a tractable method for improving the accuracy of the irradiance data in the NSRDB. For example, in July of 2018, an average location in the Continental United States is missing cloud property data for nearly one quarter of all daylight cloudy timesteps. This project aims to improve the cloud data inputs to the NSRDB by using machine learning techniques to exploit the NSRDB’s massive data resources. More accurate cloud property input data will yield more accurate surface irradiance data in the NSRDB, providing direct benefit to researchers at NREL and to public data users everywhere.

Buster, Grant↗

DOE OSTI2020

Technology Transfer Excellence Award NTXBio

While a scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Dr. Alex Koglin developed two compounds to create a better vaccine for Tuberculosis (TB). In 2015, Dr. Koglin took an entrepreneurial leave of absence from the Laboratory to start NTXBio, LLC. His objective was to develop and commercialize a TB vaccine based on two compounds he created while a scientist at the Los Alamos. In 2018, a total of 1.5 million people died from TB. According to the World Health Organization TB is the leading infectious disease resulting in death worldwide. Approximately one-quarter of the world’s population is infected with mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacteria that causes TB. Dr. Koglin non-exclusively licensed the two compounds from Los Alamos and began further development of the technology in collaboration with the Government of South Africa and universities to address the need for a vaccine to prevent TB. In their research and development of the compounds there was no evidence of cross resistance between other bacteria and the bacteria that causes TB. The compounds were tested in mouse models and demonstrated they can treat TB. Also, the tests have not shown any of the massive side effects that the current treatments for TB are showing. The company started production of the compounds using current manufacturing processes. Using these processes NTXBio could not produce the compounds at a reasonable price to be available for patients in third world countries. The company shifted to developing a new methodology “invitro synthetic biology” that can increase the production of these compounds and other vaccine molecules in a more affordable way. Dr. Koglin’s startup NTXBio is working to positively influence and secure the world vaccine supply by developing rapid on-demand production of the full spectrum of protein vaccines. Starting with the TB vaccine and advancing to common childhood vaccines, emergency and experimental vaccines such as those needed for COVID-19. NTXBio is capable of accelerated prototyping and manufacturing with increased purity and greater stability while reducing both cost and production time. The newly developed production methodology can be applied to not only the TB compounds licensed from Los Alamos, but also to their compounds that advance vaccine production for other diseases. Their technology produces vaccines fast enough to be fully deployable in areas without the need of specialized storage conditions and response times.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Updates to Relevance Vector Machine: Multiclass Classification, Variable Selection, and Proof-of-Concept Application to Safeguards Fresh Fuel Verification using List-Mode Neutron Collar Data

To expand the capabilities of safeguards authorities to verify the integrity of fresh fuel assemblies, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has retrofit the existing electronics of the JCC-71 uranium neutron coincidence collar, which contains 18 3 He neutron detectors and an external 241 AmLi(α, n) neutron interrogation source arranged to surround a fresh nuclear fuel assembly. The new electronics system allows analysts to record list-mode neutron multiplicity data in addition to the singles and doubles rates that are currently measured. Based on previous proof-of-concept research, analysis of these new data will identify off-normal fuel configurations in an assembly and characterize or localize the specific partial fuel defects. The purpose of this report it to document the analysis algorithm development and then to demonstrate its capability for the safeguards verification of fresh fuel assemblies using list mode neutron collar data. To analyze the complex list-mode data collected with the upgraded uranium neutron collar, multivariate classification algorithms are being developed using a novel classification method, the relevance vector machine. This approach may be applied to multiclass problems to estimate the probability that test data belongs to one of many possible classes of data. In addition, our method identifies the most useful variables/channels for making predictions, which illuminates the basis for the model’s predictions, and this interpretability is largely unique among data analytics methods. Variable selection occurs during model training and parameter tuning and does not need any external hyperparameter tuning routines. Finally, we apply the modified relevance vector machine to a simulated dataset of list-mode neutron collar data generated with the radiation transport code MCNP. The method can correctly identify off-normal fuel configurations, categorize the data according to four fuel defect scenarios, and rank the channels in the data according to prediction utility. For nuclear safeguards applications, it is concluded that this method has the potential to increase the sensitivity and reliability to detect missing fuel rods from a standard 17 x 17 Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) fresh fuel assembly. Within this analysis, “off-normal” (i.e., missing fuel rods) were correctly classified in 17 simulated test scenarios with one quarter (25%) of the fresh fuel rods missing using a training data set of 58 simulated measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Embodied carbon in the U.S. manufacturing and trade

On average, one quarter of the global carbon footprint is embodied in traded goods. These emissions are a growing issue for global efforts to decarbonize the world economy. Embodied emissions in trade are not accounted for by existing greenhouse gas accounting systems. For example, countries only report their domestic carbon emissions (also known as production-based or territorial accounting) to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). If the embodied carbon in trade were accounted for and reported, the promising climate trends depicted by many countries would be negated or reversed. For example, many achievements of reducing emissions by developed countries under the Kyoto Protocol would actually appear as emissions outsourced to developing countries. Like many other developed countries, the United States is a net importer of embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in trade. The goal of this study was to calculate the carbon footprint of various sectors of the U.S. economy using the latest available data and based on that, estimate the embodied carbon in certain manufacturing sector products imported and exported by the U.S. First, we conducted an input-output analysis to calculate the carbon footprint of 401 aggregate level sectors of the U.S. economy. After that, for a selected number of manufacturing subsectors /products(hereafter referred to as products),we collected their trade(import/export) data and combined that with their computed carbon footprint to estimate the embodied carbon in import and export of these products for the U.S. While we conducted the carbon footprint analysis for sectors covering the entire U.S. economy (401 sectors), we only conducted the embodied carbon in trade analysis for a few products within specific aggregate level manufacturing sectors,such as computer and electronic product manufacturing (NAICS 334), transport equipment manufacturing (NAICS 336), machinery manufacturing (NAICS 333), and chemical manufacturing (NAICS 325). It is possible to do the detailed embodied carbon analysis for all other products within the various aggregate level manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy, but given the scope of this study and space constraint of this report, we only present the results for a few products. The results of our analysis for the selected products show the embodied carbon in trade for each product by country and also show the rankings of countries in terms of top importers and exporters of embodied carbon in trade with the U.S. Our results show that in majority of cases, the U.S. is a net importer of embodied carbon in trade. Unless consumption-based accounting is used, the U.S. and other net embodied carbon importing countries may continue to outsource their emissions to meet their climate change mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, as observed previously with the Kyoto Protocol. Some countries reported reductions that exceeded their Kyoto targets, however, the changes in emissions embodied in imports were comparable to or larger than changes in domestic emissions. Traded emissions undermined emissions reductions in the Kyoto Protocol, and threaten to continue to do so for the Paris Agreement. New climate policies such as California’s Buy Clean act, EU’s proposed border carbon tax adjustment, as well as efforts in the private sector can help address the embodied carbon in traded products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2023 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2022 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 states have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 17 states have a 100% CES or RPS target. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 30% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2022. Within some regions, particularly the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, RPS policies play a more central role in motivating RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: RPS and CES policies will require roughly 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of additional clean electricity supply by 2030 and 800 TWh by 2050, requiring total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 28% of electricity sales by 2050 (compared to 17% today). This amounts to roughly one-quarter of EIA’s projected RE growth through 2050. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force. -Renewable energy certificate (REC) pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$ /MWh over the past year, just below alternative compliance payment (ACP) rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$30$ /MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs (or SRECs) remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($\$200-450$ /MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 3.5% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (8-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗