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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Forecast model applications of retrieved three dimensional liquid water fields

Forecasts are made for tropical storm Emily using heating rates derived from the SSM/I physical retrievals described in chapters 2 and 3. Average values of the latent heating rates from the convective and stratiform cloud simulations, used in the physical retrieval, are obtained for individual 1.1 km thick vertical layers. Then, the layer-mean latent heating rates are regressed against the slant path-integrated liquid and ice precipitation water contents to determine the best fit two parameter regression coefficients for each layer. The regression formulae and retrieved precipitation water contents are utilized to infer the vertical distribution of heating rates for forecast model applications. In the forecast model, diabatic temperature contributions are calculated and used in a diabatic initialization, or in a diabatic initialization combined with a diabatic forcing procedure. Our forecasts show that the time needed to spin-up precipitation processes in tropical storm Emily is greatly accelerated through the application of the data.

Raymond, William H.↗

Regression of exchangeable relational arrays

Relational arrays represent measures of association between pairs of actors, often in varied contexts or over time. Trade flows between countries, financial transactions between individuals, contact frequencies between school children in classrooms and dynamic protein-protein interactions are all examples of relational arrays. Elements of a relational array are often modelled as a linear function of observable covariates. Uncertainty estimates for regression coefficient estimators, and ideally the coefficient estimators themselves, must account for dependence between elements of the array, e.g., relations involving the same actor. Existing estimators of standard errors that recognize such relational dependence rely on estimating extremely complex, heterogeneous structure across actors. This paper develops a new class of parsimonious coefficient and standard error estimators for regressions of relational arrays. Here we leverage an exchangeability assumption to derive standard error estimators that pool information across actors, and are substantially more accurate than existing estimators in a variety of settings. This exchangeability assumption is pervasive in network and array models in the statistics literature, but not previously considered when adjusting for dependence in a regression setting with relational data. We demonstrate improvements in inference theoretically, via a simulation study, and by analysis of a dataset involving international trade.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Validation of Long-Term Global Aerosol Climatology Project Optical Thickness Retrievals Using AERONET and MODIS Data

A comprehensive set of monthly mean aerosol optical thickness (AOT) data from coastal and island AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) stations is used to evaluate Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP) retrievals for the period 1995-2009 during which contemporaneous GACP and AERONET data were available. To put the GACP performance in broader perspective, we also compare AERONET and MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua level-2 data for 2003-2009 using the same methodology. We find that a large mismatch in geographic coverage exists between the satellite and ground-based datasets, with very limited AERONET coverage of open-ocean areas. This is especially true of GACP because of the smaller number of AERONET stations at the early stages of the network development. Monthly mean AOTs from the two over-the-ocean satellite datasets are well-correlated with the ground-based values, the correlation coefficients being 0.81-0.85 for GACP and 0.74-0.79 for MODIS. Regression analyses demonstrate that the GACP mean AOTs are approximately 17%-27% lower than the AERONET values on average, while the MODIS mean AOTs are 5%-25% higher. The regression coefficients are highly dependent on the weighting assumptions (e.g., on the measure of aerosol variability) as well as on the set of AERONET stations used for comparison. Comparison of over-the-land and over-the-ocean MODIS monthly mean AOTs in the vicinity of coastal AERONET stations reveals a significant bias. This may indicate that aerosol amounts in coastal locations can differ significantly from those in adjacent open-ocean areas. Furthermore, the color of coastal waters and peculiarities of coastline meteorological conditions may introduce biases in the GACP AOT retrievals. We conclude that the GACP and MODIS over-the-ocean retrieval algorithms show similar ranges of discrepancy when compared to available coastal and island AERONET stations. The factors mentioned above may limit the performance of the validation procedure and cause us to caution against a direct extrapolation of the presented validation results to the entirety of the GACP dataset.

MODIS (radiometry)↗

Crop acreage estimation using a Landsat-based estimator as an auxiliary variable

The problem of improving upon the ground survey estimates of crop acreages by utilizing Landsat data is addressed. Three estimators, called regression, ratio, and stratified ratio, are studied for bias and variance, and their relative efficiencies are compared. The approach is to formulate analytically the estimation problem that utilizes ground survey data, as collected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and Landsat data, which provide complete coverage for an area of interest, and then to conduct simulation studies. It is shown over a wide range of parametric conditions that the regression estimator is the most efficient unless there is a low correlation between the actual and estimated crop acreages in the sampled area segments, in which case the ratio and stratified ratio estimators are better. Furthermore, it is seen that the regression estimator is potentially biased due to estimating the regression coefficient from the training sample segments. Estimation of the variance of the regression estimator is also investigated. Two variance estimators are considered, the large sample variance estimator and an alternative estimator suggested by Cochran. The large sample estimate of variance is found to be biased and inferior to the Cochran estimate for small sample sizes.

Chhikara, R. S.↗

Moltensaltpropnet

MoltenSaltPropnet is a physics-informed machine learning framework that aims to predict the thermophysical properties of molten fluoride and chloride salt mixtures, which are crucial for the design and safety of Generation IV molten salt reactors. The code processes data from the Molten-Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB-TP) and the Janz compendium, converting critically evaluated correlations into fast, differentiable surrogate models for density, viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity across 448 distinct salt systems. The implementation consists of several key components: 1. Data Curation: The code parses and cleans the raw data, normalizing elemental mole fractions and extracting relevant regression coefficients for various thermophysical properties. 2. Feature Engineering: It generates fixed-length numerical descriptors that encapsulate the composition and temperature, incorporating polynomial interaction terms and dimensionality-reduction techniques to optimize model performance. 3. Coefficient Learning: Four different machine learning architectures are employed: a deep residual network (ResNet), a Kolmogorov–Arnold network (KAN), a sparsity-inducing neural network (SNN), and classical regression models. Each model learns to predict coefficients that define the temperature-dependent correlations for the thermophysical properties. 4. Property Reconstruction: The predicted coefficients are used to compute temperature-dependent property values, ensuring positivity and monotonic trends through a composite loss function that enforces physical constraints. 5. User Interface: An open-source web application enables users to filter the database, train task-specific models, and visualize the results, allowing for rapid exploration of candidate salt mixtures. MoltenSaltPropnet bridges the gap between limited experimental data and high-fidelity reactor simulations, providing a powerful tool for researchers in the field of molten salt reactors and advanced nuclear energy systems.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

Iterative Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data Analysis for Extended Independent Variable Sets

A new method was developed that makes it possible to use an extended set of independent calibration variables for an iterative analysis of wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration data. The new method permits the application of the iterative analysis method whenever the total number of balance loads and other independent calibration variables is greater than the total number of measured strain gage outputs. Iteration equations used by the iterative analysis method have the limitation that the number of independent and dependent variables must match. The new method circumvents this limitation. It simply adds a missing dependent variable to the original data set by using an additional independent variable also as an additional dependent variable. Then, the desired solution of the regression analysis problem can be obtained that fits each gage output as a function of both the original and additional independent calibration variables. The final regression coefficients can be converted to data reduction matrix coefficients because the missing dependent variables were added to the data set without changing the regression analysis result for each gage output. Therefore, the new method still supports the application of the two load iteration equation choices that the iterative method traditionally uses for the prediction of balance loads during a wind tunnel test. An example is discussed in the paper that illustrates the application of the new method to a realistic simulation of temperature dependent calibration data set of a six component balance.

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred↗

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗

A compilation of first-order line-mixing coefficients for CO2 Q-branches

A parameterization of first-order line-mixing in CO2 Q-branches is presented for use in atmospheric radiative transfer codes. Regression coefficients for the temperature dependence of the first-order line-mixing parameters for each J in 11 of the strongest Q-branches between 600 and 3000/cm are given. These coefficients may only be used with the line strengths and widths reported in the HITRAN92 line compilation; otherwise large errors will be introduced into the calculated line shape. Other potential problems in the implementation of first-order line-mixing in radiative transfer codes are also discussed.

Strow, L. Larrabee↗

A relation between the short time variations of cosmic rays and geomagnetic field change

An event is reported of approx. 37 min periodicity in cosmic ray intensity observed at Akeno(38 deg 47 N, 138 deg 30 E. 900m above s.l., cutoff 10.4 GV) during 1300 approx. 1900 UT on April 25th, 1984, just a day before Forbush decrease of April 26th. This event seemed to be followed by the periodic variations of the geomagnetic field observed at Kakioka (36 deg 23 N, 140 deg 18 E). The regression coefficient between them was obtained approx. 0.07%/10nT. It is shown that in general the power spectral density of cosmic rays in the frequency of 0.0001 approx. 0.001Hz correlates positively with the fluctuations of geomagnetic field (Dst field) around approx. 1.2x0.0001Hz. From the analysis of 47 days data (April 14th to June 13th, 1984) the regression curve was obtained as y=0.275x sup 0.343 with the correlation coefficient of 0.48, where x and y mean Fourier components of Dst field summed over 1.04 approx. 1.39x0.001Hz and cosmic ray power spectral density averaged over 0.0001 approx. 0.001Hz.

Saki, T.↗

Evaluation of Regression Models of Balance Calibration Data Using an Empirical Criterion

An empirical criterion for assessing the significance of individual terms of regression models of wind tunnel strain gage balance outputs is evaluated. The criterion is based on the percent contribution of a regression model term. It considers a term to be significant if its percent contribution exceeds the empirical threshold of 0.05%. The criterion has the advantage that it can easily be computed using the regression coefficients of the gage outputs and the load capacities of the balance. First, a definition of the empirical criterion is provided. Then, it is compared with an alternate statistical criterion that is widely used in regression analysis. Finally, calibration data sets from a variety of balances are used to illustrate the connection between the empirical and the statistical criterion. A review of these results indicated that the empirical criterion seems to be suitable for a crude assessment of the significance of a regression model term as the boundary between a significant and an insignificant term cannot be defined very well. Therefore, regression model term reduction should only be performed by using the more universally applicable statistical criterion.

Ulbrich, Norbert↗

Satellite/radiosonde comparison

Collocated measurements of radiosonde and TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data are compared to determine whether significant latitudinal, seasonal, or instrumental biases exist. Long-wave structure determined by each system is being examined for correlation. Because U.S. radiosonde data are archived uncorrected, an effort to correct the measurements is being considered. These corrections will be applied to 7 years of measurements. New comparisons will then be made using corrected radiosonde and TOVS data. A regression method is used to retrieve temperatures, and radiosonde zonal means are used to update the regression coefficients. Preliminary results of auto-correlation analysis indicate that detection of long-wave structure in each set of data is slightly different with some levels and locations experiencing different wave periods or amplitudes. Scatter diagrams and linear regression for each layer show bias in the mean temperatures. Winter-time measurements show poorer correlations due to noisy measurements.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

Bayesian chain graph models to characterize microbe-environment dynamics

Microbiome data require statistical models that can simultaneously decode microbes' reaction to the environment and interactions among microbes. While a multiresponse linear regression model seems like a straight-forward solution, we argue that treating it as a graphical model is problematic given that the regression coefficient matrix does not encode the conditional dependence structure between response and predictor nodes. This observation is especially important in biological settings when we have prior knowledge on the edges from specific experimental interventions that can only be properly encoded under a conditional dependence model. Here, we propose a chain graph model with two sets of nodes (predictors and responses) whose solution yields a graph with edges that indeed represent conditional dependence, thus agreeing with the experimenter's intuition on the average behavior of nodes under treatment. The solution to our model is sparse via the Bayesian linear regression (LASSO). In addition, we propose an adaptive extension so that different shrinkages can be applied to different edges to incorporate edge-specific prior knowledge. Our model is computationally inexpensive through an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm and can account for binary, counting, and compositional responses via an appropriate hierarchical structure. We test the performance of our model in a variety of simulated datasets, thereby showing superior performance to state-of-the-art approaches. We further apply our model to human gut and soil microbial compositional datasets, and we highlight that CG-LASSO can estimate biologically meaningful network structures in the data.

compositional data↗

CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols

We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Poisson-response Tensor-on-Tensor Regression and Applications

We introduce Poisson-response tensor-on-tensor regression (PToTR), a novel regression framework designed to handle tensor responses composed element-wise of random Poisson-distributed counts. Tensors, or multi-dimensional arrays, composed of counts are common data in fields such as inter national relations, social networks, epidemiology, and medical imaging, where events occur across multiple dimensions like time, location, and dyads. PToTR accommodates such tensor responses alongside tensor covariates, providing a versatile tool for multi dimensional data analysis. We propose algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation under a canonical polyadic (CP) structure on the regression coefficient tensor that satisfy the positivity of Poisson parameters and then provide an initial theoretical error analysis for PToTR estimators. We also demonstrate the utility of PToTR through three concrete applications: longitudinal data analysis of the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System database, positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction, and change-point detection of communication patterns in longitudinal dyadic data. These applications highlight the versatility of PToTR in addressing complex, structured count data across various domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Application of a Temperature-Dependent Load Prediction Method to a RUAG Six-Component Block-Type Balance

Temperature-dependent data of a RUAG six-component block-type balance was analyzed to assess the accuracy of two load prediction methods for temperature-dependent balance data. The supplied data was prepared for the analysis by splitting it into calibration and check load data subsets. The first calibration data subset was obtained at a temperature of 294 Kelvin. The second calibration data subset was obtained at a temperature of 315 Kelvin. A subset of 38 points was extracted from the second data set and used as check loads so that the accuracy of the two load prediction methods could be tested. First, the Iterative Method in combination with an extended independent and dependent variable set was used for the balance load prediction. This approach fits electrical outputs as a function of loads and the temperature and, afterwards, constructs a load iteration scheme from the regression coefficients so that loads can be predicted from outputs and the temperature during a wind tunnel test. The Non-Iterative Method was also used for the load prediction. This alternate method can more easily be implemented in a data system as loads are directly fitted as a function of electrical outputs and the temperature. Analysis results for the axial force are only discussed in the paper as similar results were obtained for the other five load components. Results for both methods clearly show that the cross-product term constructed from either a primary gage load or a primary gage output and the temperature explains the majority of the temperature-dependent part of the predicted balance load. This term models the temperature dependent nature of the gage sensitivity. Therefore, it is recommended to apply primary gage loadings at different temperatures during a balance calibration whenever temperature effects need to be described. These loadings will contain information about the temperature-dependent nature of the gage sensitivities that can be quantified by related cross-product terms in regression models of the data.

strain-gage balance↗

An ecologic study of dietary links to prostate cancer

BACKGROUND: The etiology of prostate cancer has not been fully resolved in the scientific and medical literature, although the non-fat portion of milk and calcium are emerging as leading dietary risk factors, with lycopene (found in tomatoes) and vitamin D apparently being risk reduction factors. METHODS: The ecologic (multi-country statistical) approach is used to study dietary links to prostate cancer. Mortality data from 1986 for various age groups in 41 countries are compared with national consumer macronutrient supply values for 1983 and tomato supply values for 1985. RESULTS: For 28 countries with more than five Kcal/day of tomatoes in the consumer supply, a linear combination of non-fat milk (risk factor) and tomatoes (risk reduction factor) was found to have the highest statistical association with prostate cancer mortality rates for men over the age of 35, with the Pearson regression coefficient (R2) for those aged 65-74 years = 0.67 and p < 0.001. For the 13 countries with fewer than six Kcal/day of tomatoes, non-fat milk had the highest association (R2 = 0.92, p < 0.001 for men aged 65-74 years). For 41 countries combined, the non-fat portion of milk had the highest association with prostate cancer mortality rates (R2 = 0.73, p < 0.001 for men aged 65-74 years). CONCLUSIONS: These results support the results of several cohort studies which found the non-fat portion of milk to have the highest association with prostate cancer, likely due to the calcium, and tomatoes to reduce the risk of prostate cancer, most likely due to lycopene.

Diet/adverse effects↗

Qualitative trend analysis based on a mixed-integer representation

Shape constrained spline fitting is a useful method to impose prior knowledge onto flexible semi-parametric models during parameter estimation. Most typically, the function shape is imposed through order restrictions on the regression coefficients. The intended shape is considered known or selected based on heuristic rules. In this study, we present a method to estimate the optimal set of order restrictions to segment a univariate data series into episodes with distinct shapes. This is also known as the qualitative trend analysis (QTA) problem. The obtained solution uses a trade-off between lack-of-fit and model complexity. Further, our practical implementation takes inspiration from the generalized order restricted information criterion (GORIC) for inequality-constrained model selection. From this, one learns (a) that QTA can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP) and (b) that the newly proposed mixed order restricted information criterion (MORIC) enables optimal segmentation. This is illustrated through didactic case studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗