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This presentation discusses use of Core Flight Systems in NASA Langley Research Center's drone flight test environment for autonomy algorithms research.
Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems (TPS) are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Traditional approaches typically over-margin TPS and offer very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight. A probabilistic margin process can be used to apply thermal margin to an aeroshell based on a rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory modifications, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This methodology can also be applied to other TPS applications, hot structures, and other engineering disciplines.
As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.
There is growing interest in high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for use in advanced nuclear reactors as a high-energy fuel source. The primary objectives of this report are to identify the security risks that directly result from HALEU and to identify the gaps and challenges it presents from a theft and sabotage perspective. This study focuses on HALEU security risks for the front end of the fuel cycle and includes a review of the supply chain, fuel fabrication, and transport for terrestrial reactors.
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Microbial monitoring onboard the International Space Station (ISS) is essential for assessing the efficiency of the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) and providing insight into potential risk to both crew and spacecraft. Historically, this monitoring required the need to culture organisms onboard, return these cultures to Earth, and then complete the identifications, a process that would take months. Over the past decade, and through numerous payloads, advances in molecular biology have enabled in-flight microbial identifications using nanopore sequencing. The swab-to-sequencer method resulting from these efforts was transitioned from research to operations for microbial monitoring under the Crew Health Care Systems (CHeCS) BioMole. Collectively, these accomplishments have propelled the swab-to-sequencer method to be selected as the Microbial Surface Monitor (MSM) for Gateway, as well as a payload on Artemis IV. However, the lack of cold stowage availability for Artemis requires modifications to the entire method due to the thermal instability of the reagents required for sample preparation. To achieve this, new development, optimization, and validations were undertaken. Key considerations included enzyme concentration, buffer compatibility, and equal or enhanced sensitivity and specificity. At each step, thorough side-by-side comparisons with the current ISS method were performed. The development of a robust shelf-stable method will ensure continued sequencing-based microbial monitoring for Artemis and beyond, providing data in near real-time, enhancing risk response time, and yielding clear insight into the microbiome of spacecraft.
Spacecraft are designed to prevent fires through careful material selection and configuration control combined with electrical design controls and isolation of ignition sources. Despite these best efforts, fire risk still exists due to the potential for configuration changes with the introduction of crew and the potential for a ‘failure of imagination’ by designers in anticipating all fuel and ignition sources. Therefore, fire suppression is a critical capability for any crewed spacecraft as a last resort for crew survival. Many spacecraft suppression methods have relied on fire suppressants such as compressed carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and water. A proposed alternative is depressurization of the cabin as a method to extinguish a fire. Limited testing was conducted during Skylab and showed that depress could result in stirring the air flow and aggravating a fire before extinguishing. However, limited information was available on how the test was conducted. To better characterize the approach, testing was conducted at NASA’s White Sands Test Facility to evaluate the effect of depressurization on material extinguishment. The results showed that depressurization does not provide a safe and effective fire suppression capability. The testing approach, results, and conclusions are described and discussed.
The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.
This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.
This technical report documents research conducted under DOE Award No. DE-FE0031837 focused on evaluating the feasibility of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) systems in the central and western United States. The project integrated geologic characterization, reservoir simulation, infrastructure modeling, and economic analysis to assess CO₂ storage potential near industrial sources and develop strategies for transport and sequestration. The work included subsurface modeling, risk assessment, monitoring and verification (MRV) planning, and evaluation of regulatory pathways such as EPA Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permitting and IRS 45Q tax credit eligibility. Results demonstrate the viability of multiple storage approaches, including saline formations, enhanced coalbed methane recovery, and basalt mineralization, supported by data-driven workflows and regional analyses. The project also produced permitting templates, technology transfer activities, and stakeholder engagement efforts to support deployment readiness. These findings contribute to the development of scalable, economically viable CCUS systems and provide a repeatable framework for future carbon management projects.
NASA has ambitious plans to send astronaut crews to the south polar region of the Moon and explore this lunar terrain with humans for the first time through a series of Artemis missions. Artemis will provide economic benefits, drive technological advancement, and inspire the next generation of explorers. Simultaneously, Artemis presents a unique opportunity for humans to conduct high-priority planetary science in situ in the south polar region of the Moon. Prior to human exploration, landed robotic precursor investigations can provide valuable information to reduce risk and maximize discovery and productivity of subsequent crewed missions. NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) is a robotic mission designed to explore and characterize the lunar south polar region prior to crewed Artemis landed missions. VIPER is designed to explore multiple thermal regimes to characterize the lunar polar environment and regolith properties, and to explore for surface and subsurface ices. Each of these objectives are key for both scientific investigation and to detect and assess volatile deposits to support in situ resource utilization (ISRU) and a sustained human presence on the Moon. VIPER would also operate with a real-time mission operations architecture with relevance and feed-forward to Artemis crewed operations on the lunar surface. VIPER would provide key information regarding the lunar environment, scientific exploration, technologies, and real-time operations to optimize the valuable surface exploration time of Artemis crew members while simultaneously reducing risk to crew and increasing health and human safety on the lunar surface.
The Pad Abort (PA-1) system includes the Launch Abort System (LAS) and the Command Module (CM). The PA-1 abort flight test will launch from the White Sands Missile Range. Prior to the ignition, the vehicle will be resting, without restraints, on a short support structure. The Launch Abort Motor will ignite and burn for less than 5 seconds before a 20 second coast. Then the LAS will separate from the CM and the CM will descend via parachute to a soil landing. The static firing of the Abort Motor (ST-1) for PA-1 Launch Vehicle resulted in unexpected higher levels that superseded the environment predictions and all the design and test loads of all subassemblies and components. A rapid project was put in place to develop the flight environments, loads and associated uncertainties for the Verification Load Cycle (VLC) of PA-1. An acoustic test and shaker test of the CM were planned and executed in support of the developments of damping and transfer functions. Instead of using the traditional structure-borne envelops, the actual ST-1 pressures and forces were used to develop the internal accelerations. The PA-1 motor was cooled to 60 Deg F using thermal conditioning to reduce the thrust profile. The plumes of the abort motor were studied to determine if the airborne environments would be reduced. The combination of all items, noted above, allowed a reduction in loads for VLC.
In recent history, extreme heat has been the cause of most deaths from a natural disaster. Exposure to extreme heat can aggravate preexisting conditions, increase hospitalization, and even cause death. Thus, modeling the thermal resilience of households across the United States will allow for a quantitative assessment of the health and safety risks posed by extreme heat. For the first time, we simulate occupant comfort in representative households across Boston by combining the granular results of the ResStock(TM) model with a two-node heat strain model. This model calculates occupants' core body temperature in each simulated household over a year. We compare the simulated core temperatures to two public health metrics: hyperthermia and heat stroke. Our results show for households in Boston that do not have or use aid conditioning, thousands potentially experience many dangerous heat events each summer and these events can last for more than a day at a time. These heat events peak during the late afternoon and evening, just as residents are coming home, cooking meals, and trying to go to sleep. We have found that multi-family buildings, renters, and low-income homes in more airtight and insulated homes are the most at risk for these events. These results demonstrate the scale and urgency of exposure to extreme heat.
Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.
This 2024-2026 report provides a summary of the products and activities executed by the NASA Agile Community of Practice (CoP) during its second and third years. Building on the foundation established in its inaugural year, the CoP continued to advance Agile values and principles across NASA centers. The report highlights key initiatives, including specialized framework training, AI integration in Agile toolkits, and active participation in agency-wide project management and systems engineering workshops.
These case studies provide tangible examples within the development field that show how true innovation in real estate and property development hinges on shaping and optimizing diverse connections and relationships to create widely available, market-viable, and high-performance buildings.
System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) is a systems-based hazard analysis method that identifies unsafe interactions and control deficiencies in complex systems but has been rarely used for NASA programs in favor of more well-established hazard analyses. To evaluate its applicability, a NASA Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) team applied the STPA method to an early-stage hybrid electrified aircraft concept, focusing on the energy storage system and electric powertrain. Objectives include assessing STPA’s value relative to traditional methods and its suitability for early design phases. Activities include team training, system review, detailed STPA execution, and comparison with traditional analyses. Findings show STPA provides a structured, comprehensive hazard evaluation and can identify additional risks by expanding analysis boundaries. However, traditional methods can yield similar results when applied rigorously, though they typically require more mature designs. Overall, STPA is a valuable addition, particularly for early development, informing safety requirements and supporting preliminary hazard analyses. Further pilot applications are recommended.
Preparing payloads for the lunar surface requires rigorous testing that accurately captures the extreme environmental and operational conditions. This presentation provides an overview of the lunar relevant test capabilities at NASA JSC’s Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) laboratories as well as the Energy System Test Area (ESTA) Lunar Development and Test Facility. These facilities allow teams to assess hardware performance in dusty vacuum environments, characterize interactions with high fidelity lunar regolith simulants, evaluate mechanical and thermal durability, and understand the effects of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impacts—critical factors for certifying payloads that will operate on the lunar surface or in orbit. While Lunar power challenges such as variable illumination, extreme temperatures, and dust driven degradation will be briefly summarized, the focus of this talk is on how JSC’s test infrastructure enables developers to validate designs, reduce mission risk, and ensure compatibility with CLPS and Artemis objectives. NASA JSC’s expertise and experience help industry, academic, and government teams prepare robust hardware ready for successful delivery and operation on the surface of the Moon.