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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-scale sensing of field-level crop residue cover: Integrating field photos, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite data

Conservation tillage practices can bring benefits to agricultural sustainability. Accurate spatial and temporal resolved information of field-scale crop residue cover, which reflects tillage intensity, is highly valuable for evaluating the outcomes of government conservation programs and voluntary ecosystem service markets, as well as facilitating agroecosystem modeling to quantify cropland biogeochemical processes. Remote sensing has the potential to cost-effectively detect crop residue cover, however, existing regional-scale studies were limited by insufficient ground truth data, scale mismatch between coarse satellite pixels and ground data, and the lack of key spectral data for detecting crop residues. Therefore, this study developed an innovative cross-sensing framework to integrate proximal sensing, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite Earth Observation through deep learning to quantify field-level crop residue cover fractions at the regional scale. Specifically, we have collected intensive ground orthographic photos and conducted airborne hyperspectral surveys at corn and soybean fields of Champaign and nearby counties in Illinois, the heartland of the U.S. Corn Belt. Through semi-automatic labeling aided by ResNet-50 and superpixel image segmentation, we obtained 6719 records of ground residue fractions. With these ground data, we developed the 1-dimensional convolution neural network (CNN) model using airborne hyperspectral reflectance, which has 0.5m spatial resolution and 3–5 nm spectral resolution from 400 to 2400 nm, to predict residue fractions. By applying the CNN model to airborne pixels, we augmented “ground truth” data of crop residues and further combined them with Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) satellite data to quantify regional residue fractions at 30 m resolution. Results show that airborne hyperspectral imagery with CNN can accurately detect residue fractions (R 2 = 0.82, relative RMSE = 11.73%) to effectively generate quasi “ground truth” data to support satellite upscaling to all fields. With independent ground data for testing, we found that the ground-airborne-satellite integrative framework achieved better predictions in estimating crop residue cover (R 2 = 0.67, relative RMSE = 17.53%) than the conventional ground-satellite upscaling (R 2 = 0.22, relative RMSE = 32.09%). Here we also found that the shortwave infrared wavelengths, particularly 2100–2300 nm, are vital for predicting crop residue cover. Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data have a comparable capability to track residue fractions due to similar shortwave infrared wavelengths. This study highlights the high accuracy of hyperspectral imaging to detect agroecosystem tillage management practices and the advantages of cross-scale sensing to cost-effectively integrate multi-source data to quantify field-level agroecosystem variables across scales.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model

Modeling is an important way to assess current and future permafrost spatial distribution and dynamics, especially in data poor areas like the Arctic region. Here, we evaluate a physics-based analytical model, Kudryavtsev's active layer model, which is widely used because it has relatively few data requirements. This model was recently incorporated into a component modeling toolbox, allowing for coupled modeling of permafrost and geomorphic processes over geological timescales. However, systematic quantitative assessment of the influence of its controlling parameters on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness predictions has not been undertaken before. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of the Kudryavtsev's active layer model by Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions for input parameters and compare predictions with a comprehensive benchmark dataset of in-situ permafrost observations over entire Alaska. Predicted permafrost surface temperature is highly dependent on mean annual air temperature (r = 0.78 on average), annual temperature amplitude (–0.41), and winter-averaged snow thickness (0.30). Uncertainty of predicted permafrost temperature is relatively small (RMSE = 1 °C), when air temperature and snow depth are well constrained. Similarly, RMSE between simulated and observed ALT at stations is ~0.08 m. However, under given air temperature and snow conditions, soil water content bias can significantly affect modeled active layer thickness (RMSE = 0.1 m or 40% of the observed active layer thickness). If soil water content has a large bias, improvements in other parameters may not significantly improve the active layer predictions of the Kudryavtsev's model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Baseflow Identification via Explainable AI With Kolmogorov‐Arnold Networks

Abstract Hydrological models often involve constitutive laws that may not be optimal in every application. We propose to replace such laws with the Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs), a class of neural networks designed to identify symbolic expressions. We demonstrate KAN's potential on the problem of baseflow identification, a notoriously challenging task plagued by significant uncertainty. KAN‐derived functional dependencies of the baseflow components on the aridity index outperform their original counterparts; they demonstrate that water availability, rather than potential evapotranspiration, drives baseflow by constraining actual evapotranspiration under arid conditions. On a test set, they increase the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) by 65%, decrease the root mean squared error by 29%, and increase the Kling‐Gupta efficiency by 34%. This superior performance is achieved while reducing the number of fitting parameters from three to two. Next, we use data from 378 catchments across the continental United States to refine the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale. The KAN‐derived equations based on the refined water balance outperform both the current aridity index model, with up to a 105% increase in NSE, and the KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. While the performance of our model and tree‐based machine learning methods is similar, KANs offer the advantage of simplicity and transparency and require no specific software or computational tools. This case study focuses on the aridity index formulation, but the approach is flexible and transferable to other hydrological processes. Plain Language Summary Equations used in hydrologic model are often suboptimal, resulting in reduced prediction accuracy and efficiency. We implemented Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KAN), a machine learning algorithm for deriving symbolic formulations, to estimate groundwater recharge and showed that it outperforms an existing state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical formulation. In hydrology, Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) are commonly used to evaluate model performance. Higher NSE and KGE values indicate better performance, while lower RMSE values are preferable. Our results show that NSE increased by 71%, RMSE decreased by 32%, and KGE improved by 25%. In addition, KAN identifies an optimal functional form and can be used to derive new analytical formulas using the prior knowledge. The KAN‐inspired equation outperformed the original formulation and reduced the fitting parameters. Furthermore, we refined the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale and showed that, based on the new water‐balance equation, KAN can derive new formulations that are superior to the original aridity index formulations (up to 105% increase in NSE) and KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. These findings highlight the significant potential of KAN to advance the scientific understanding of a wide range of hydrologic processes. Key Points Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs) enhance interpretability of machine‐learned hydrological models KAN‐derived symbolic formulations outperform state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical aridity indices KAN‐identified functional form yields an analytical index with fewer fitting parameters and improved performance

baseflow↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Network‐Based Methods for Ocean Surface Wave Measurement Using Submarine Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS)

Two new data-driven models for estimating ocean surface waves from distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) submarine cable strain rate are developed using supervised machine learning on a 10-day data set collected offshore of Oliktok Point, Alaska. The new models were trained on target data from seafloor pressure moorings at three sites spaced evenly along 27.1 km of cable and were benchmarked against an empirical transfer function method previously used to estimate waves from DAS. A model which uses convolutional neural networks to transform 2-km frequency-wavenumber strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.15 vs. 0.41 m) and period prediction (0.29 vs. 0.37 s) when evaluated on a held-out test data set. When applied to a DAS data set collected on the same cable 2 years prior, the CNN-based model maintained similar significant wave height performance (RMSE = 0.23 m) relative to available satellite altimetry data. A two-hidden-layer, fully connected neural network which transforms 1-D strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra also outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.19 vs. 0.41 m), but does not generalize as well to the prior data. Regression-based machine learning is useful for estimating waves from DAS data when the pressure-strain relationship varies temporally and spatially across different wave conditions. Models can be applied to DAS data to measure waves with higher spatial resolution and longer temporal coverage than traditional methods, which often measure waves only at a single point.

Davis, Jacob R. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA ↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel data gaps filling method for solar PV output forecasting

This study proposes a modified gaps filling method, expanding the column mean imputation method and evaluated using randomly generated missing values comprising 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% of the original data on power output. The XGBoost algorithm was implemented as a forecasting model using the original and processed datasets and two sources of solar radiation data, namely, Shortwave Radiation (SWR) from Advanced Himawari Imager 8 (AHI-8) and Surface Solar Radiation Downward (SSRD) from ERA5 global reanalysis data. Further, the accuracy of the two sets of forecasted power output was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results show that by applying the proposed gap filling method and using SWR in forecasting solar photovoltaic (PV) output, the improvement in the RMSE and MAE values range from 12.52% to 24.30% and from 21.10% to 31.31%, respectively. Meanwhile, using SSRD, the improvement in the RMSE values range from 14.01% to 28.54% and MAE values from 22.39% to 35.53%. To further evaluate the accuracy of the proposed gap-filling method, the proposed method could be validated using different datasets and other forecasting methods. Future studies could also consider applying the said method to datasets with data gaps higher than 20%.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of stability constants of metal–ligand complexes by machine learning for the design of ligands with optimal metal ion selectivity

The new LOGKPREDICT program integrates HostDesigner molecular design software with the machine learning (ML) program Chemprop. By supplying HostDesigner with predicted log K values, LOGKPREDICT enhances the computer-aided molecular design process by ranking ligands directly by metal–ligand binding strength. Harnessing reliable experimental data from a historic National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) database and data from the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC), we train message passing neural net algorithms. The multi-metal NIST-based ML model has a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.629 ± 0.044 (R 2 of 0.960 ± 0.006), while two versions of lanthanide-only IUPAC-based ML models have, respectively, RMSE of 0.764 ± 0.073 (R 2 of 0.976 ± 0.005) and 0.757 ± 0.071 (R 2 of 0.959 ± 0.007). For relative log K predictions on an out-of-sample set of six ligands, demonstrating metal ion selectivity, the RMSE value reaches a commendably low 0.25. Here we showcase the use of LOGKPREDICT in identifying ligands with high selectivity for lanthanides in aqueous solutions, a finding supported by recent experimental evidence. We also predict new ligands yet to be verified experimentally. Therefore, our ML models implemented through LOGKPREDICT and interfaced with the ligand design software HostDesigner pave the way for designing new ligands with predetermined selectivity for competing metal ions in an aqueous solution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pan-tropical daily L-band microwave land surface emissivity retrieval from GNSS-R observations

The uncertainties in microwave land surface emissivity (MLSE) measurements have long limited the use of spaceborne microwave radiometer data. As an emerging observation method, Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) has demonstrated great potential in several land and ocean applications. In this study, a method for obtaining daily MLSE dataset in the pan-tropical region from Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) observations is presented and evaluated. The CYGNSS observations are first aggregated into the Equal-Area-Scalable-Earth (EASE) 2.0 36 km grid by a combined weight function of distance, time, and signal-to-noise ratio variance. Then, the method employs a pixel-by-pixel regression algorithm to conduct the daily MLSE retrieval using reference emissivity derived from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) brightness temperature. The CYGNSS MLSE shows good agreement with SMAP MLSE, delivering an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.022 and 0.017 for horizontal and vertical polarization, respectively, during the training set spanning the whole year of 2018. Furthermore, on the test set from January 2019 to May 2019, the RMSE values amounted to 0.030 and 0.023 for horizontal and vertical polarization, respectively. Temperature records from the International Soil Moisture Network are employed to calculate the emissivity and for in-situ validation, which yield an RMSE of 0.034 and 0.026 for the two polarizations, respectively. The proposed algorithm provides an encouraging approach to obtain accurate daily MLSE dataset for microwave remote sensing. Compared to the SMAP MLSE, the CYGNSS MLSE has a remarkable improvement of 86% in temporal resolution, greatly complementing the existing microwave emissivity datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Source:sink imbalance detected with leaf and canopy-level spectroscopy in a field-grown crop

The finely-tuned balance between sources and sinks determines plant resource partitioning and regulates growth and development. Understanding and measuring metabolic indicators of source or sink limitation forms a vital part of global efforts to increase crop yield for future food security. Here, we measured metabolic profiles of Cucurbita pepo (zucchini) grown in the field under carbon sink limitation and control conditions. We demonstrate that these profiles can be measured non-destructively using hyperspectral reflectance at both leaf and canopy scales. Total non-structural carbohydrates (TNC) increased 82% in sink-limited plants; leaf mass per unit area (LMA) increased 38%; free amino acids increased 22%. Partial least-squares regression models link these measured functional traits with reflectance data, enabling high-throughput estimation of traits comprising the sink limitation response. Leaf- and canopy-scale models for TNC had R 2 values of 0.93 and 0.64 and %RMSE of 13% and 38% respectively. For LMA, R 2 values were 0.91 and 0.60 and %RMSE 7% and 14%; for free amino acids, R 2 was 0.53 and 0.21 with %RMSE 20% and 26%. Remote sensing can enable accurate, rapid detection of sink limitation in the field at the leaf and canopy scale, greatly expanding our ability to understand and measure metabolic responses to stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian estimation of HIV acquisition dates for prevention trials

Accurate timing estimates of when participants acquire HIV in HIV prevention trials are necessary for determining antibody levels at acquisition. The Antibody-Mediated Prevention (AMP) Studies showed that a passively administered broadly neutralizing antibody can prevent the acquisition of HIV from a neutralization-sensitive virus. We developed a pipeline for estimating the date of detectable HIV acquisition (DDA) in AMP Study participants using diagnostic and viral sequence data. Using a Bayesian strategy that combines three streams of data (REN [rev/vpu/env/Δnef] sequence, GP [gag/Δpol] sequence, and diagnostic) where their 95% credible intervals overlap based on pre-specified criteria and decision rules. We evaluated the performance of our AMP pipeline using PacBio viral sequence data from 41 participants across two prospective acute HIV acquisition cohort studies, FRESH and RV217, with twice-weekly sampling. These cohort studies enrolled young women in South Africa and men and women in Kenya and Thailand, respectively, with a high likelihood of HIV acquisition. In evaluating performance, “true DDA” was the center of bounds between last-negative and first-positive RNA diagnostic tests (median time 4 days, range 2–7 days); bias was the mean difference between estimated and true DDA. Using diagnostic data alone yielded timing estimates with a bias of 2.4 days and root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.9 days. These results were improved using sequence + diagnostic data (bias 1.5 days, RMSE 6.9 days), as well as by restricting sequence-based estimation to samples from ≤5 weeks post-DDA (bias 0.2 days, RMSE 7.8 days).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Dynamic-to-Static Correction Factor from Petrophysical Data and Chemostratigraphy using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Estimating static mechanical properties of stratigraphic layers is critical for optimizing subsurface engineering applications. To estimate dynamic-to-static correction factor F ds (static-to-dynamic Young’s modulus ratio) across the Caney shale interval in Oklahoma, USA, we integrated triaxial test measurements and petrophysical data, including well logs and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) using unsupervised machine learning (ML). We used a novel workflow that includes principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce data set dimensionality of well logs and XRF data sets—both separately and combined—creating three scenarios, and later applied inverse distance weighting (IDW) to derive F ds profiles for these scenarios. Furthermore, we applied K-means clustering on each scenario to predict depositional facies, and built a stiffness zonation profile through chemostratigraphic analysis of the terrigenous elements to validate the predicted F ds . The predicted F ds profile from each scenario using the PCA-IDW method was compared with the constant F ds approach from our previous study by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE). The combined data sets scenario yielded the lowest RMSE value of 0.113, while the RMSE values for the well logs and XRF scenarios were 0.131 and 0.129, respectively. In addition, the predicted F ds from the XRF scenario well-matched the stiffness zonation from the chemostratigraphic analysis that was built using the optimized K-means clustering of nine clusters for that scenario. These methods and findings offer a valuable tool for refining lithological classification and improving the F ds profile, potentially enhancing drilling and stimulation strategies for subsurface energy engineering applications.

clastic rock↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Analysis of Temperature-Strain Relationships for Structural Health Monitoring of Pipes: Self-powered wireless sensor system for health monitoring of liquid-sodium cooled fast reactors

This report presents machine learning (ML) analysis of temperature-strain relationships for structural health monitoring of nuclear reactor stainless steel (SS) pipes with the strain gauge sensor directly printed on the pipe with a 3D conformal aerosol jet printer. We investigate correlations for two sensor pairs installed on the same SS304 pipe: commercial K-type thermocouple with a printed gold strain gauge (TC3-SG3), and commercial K-type thermocouple with commercial Kyowa strain gauge (TC0-SG0). The temperature ranges for the sensor pairs TC0-SG0 and TC3-SG3 are 20.00°C to 266.37°C and 39.95°C to 219.28°C respectively. ML algorithms in this study include Linear Regression (baseline method), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Gradient Boosting. Performance evaluation metrics include Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R 2 Score, and Explained Variance. Using advanced feature engineering techniques, we extracted 27 temperature-based features and 30 strategic inclusion features. The best performance was obtained with the Gradient Boosting method, which achieves prediction accuracy of R 2 = 0.9999 and RMSE = 7.69 μStrain for TC0-SG0, and R 2 = 0.9998 and RMSE = 18.03 μStrain for TC3-SG3. While the temperature-strain correlations are weaker for the gauge directly printed on the pipe than for the commercial strain gauge, deployment-ready performance exceeding industry standards is achieved for both sensor pairs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementing and Improving CBMZ-MAM3 Chemistry and Aerosol Modules in the Regional Climate Model WRF-CAM5: An Evaluation over the Western US and Eastern North Pacific

The representation of aerosols in climate-chemistry models is important for air quality and climate change research, but it can require significant computational resources. The objective of this study was to improve the representation of aerosols in climate–chemistry models, specifically in the carbon bond mechanism, version Z (CBMZ), and modal aerosol modules with three lognormal modes (MAM3) in the WRF-CAM5 model. The study aimed to enhance the model’s chemistry capabilities by incorporating biomass burning emissions, establishing a conversion mechanism between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and secondary organic carbons (SOCs), and evaluating its performance against observational benchmarks. The results of the study demonstrated the effectiveness of the enhanced chemistry capabilities in the WRF-CAM5 model. Six simulations were conducted over the western U.S. and northeastern Pacific region, comparing the model’s performance with observational benchmarks such as reanalysis, ground-based, and satellite data. The findings revealed a significant reduction in root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Specifically, the model exhibited a 31% reduction in RMSE for BC concentrations and a 58% reduction in RMSE for OC concentrations. These outcomes underscored the importance of accurate aerosol representation in climate-chemistry models and emphasized the potential for improving simulation accuracy and reducing errors through the incorporation of enhanced chemistry modules in such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mechanistic Modeling of TEG Dehydrator Emissions in Oil and Gas Industry

This work presents a mechanistic modeling approach for simulating methane emissions from triethylene glycol (TEG) dehydrators used in oil & gas (O&G) operations. The model was developed as a modular component of the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) tool, incorporating species-specific absorption and emission dynamics through two-level, second-order polynomial regression (PR) models trained on ProMax simulation data: (1) species-level regression models that track the transfer rates of individual gas species within the dehydrator unit streams, and (2) outlet flow stream regression models that predict the fraction of inlet gas distributed among the outlet streams of the dehydrator unit. These behaviors were characterized over a range of glycol circulation ratios, wet gas pressures, and temperatures. The model was validated using root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. The species-level PR achieved low root mean square error (RMSE) values (<0.03) for light hydrocarbon species across all dehydrator components, ranging from 0.0009 for methane to 0.029 for normal pentane. Similarly, the outlet-level PR yielded RMSE values below 0.002 for the dry gas fraction, 0.001 for the flash tank fraction, and 0.002 for the still vent fraction, demonstrating strong agreement between predicted and reference ProMax values. When deployed at field facilities, the model significantly improved MAES-simulated dehydrator emissions, revealing that gas-assisted glycol pump emissions are the dominant contributors to both dehydrator-level and site-level methane emissions under uncontrolled conditions. Further analysis of the 154 dehydrator units reported by operators under the AMI 2024 project showed that 54 units (31%) used gas-driven glycol pumps, of which 6 units (11%) operated with uncontrolled flash tanks, and 22 units (40.7%) were identified as potentially oversized. Of the six dehydrator units with uncontrolled gas-assisted pumps, pump emissions accounted for 90.25% of total dehydrator emissions and 63.10% of total site-level emissions. These findings highlight substantial opportunities for emissions mitigation through equipment upgrades.

MAES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ten Years of VIIRS Land Surface Temperature Product Validation

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) has been operationally produced for a decade since the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) launched in October 2011. A comprehensive evaluation of its accuracy and precision will be helpful for product users in climate studies and atmospheric models. In this study, the VIIRS LST is validated with ground observations from multiple high-quality radiation networks, including six stations from the Surface Radiation budget (SURFRAD) network, two stations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), and 13 stations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) network, to evaluate its performance over various land-cover types. The VNP21A1 LST was validated against the same ground observations as a reference. The results yield a close agreement between the SNPP VIIRS LST and ground LSTs with a bias of -0.4 K and a RMSE of 1.96 K over six SURFRAD sites; a bias of -0.2 K and a RMSE of 1.93 K over two BSRN sites; and a bias of -0.1 K and a RMSE of 1.7 K over the 13 ARM sites. The time series of the LST errors over individual sites indicate seasonal cycles. The data anomaly over the BSRN site in Cabauw and the SURFRAD site in Desert Rock is revealed and discussed in this study. In addition, a method using Landsat-8 data is applied to quantify the heterogeneity level of each ground station and the results provide promising insights. The validation results demonstrate the maturity of the JPSS VIIRS LST products and their readiness for various application studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning

Stream temperature (Ts) is an important water quality parameter that affects ecosystem health and human water use for beneficial purposes. Accurate Ts predictions at different spatial and temporal scales can inform water management decisions that account for the effects of changing climate and extreme events. In particular, widespread predictions of Ts in unmonitored stream reaches can enable decision makers to be responsive to changes caused by unforeseen disturbances. In this study, we demonstrate the use of classical machine learning (ML) models, support vector regression and gradient boosted trees (XGBoost), for monthly Ts predictions in 78 pristine and human-impacted catchments of the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Northwest hydrologic regions spanning different geologies, climate, and land use. The ML models were trained using long-term monitoring data from 1980–2020 for three scenarios: (1) temporal predictions at a single site, (2) temporal predictions for multiple sites within a region, and (3) spatiotemporal predictions in unmonitored basins (PUB). In the first two scenarios, the ML models predicted Ts with median root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 0.69–0.84 °C and 0.92–1.02 °C across different model types for the temporal predictions at single and multiple sites respectively. For the PUB scenario, we used a bootstrap aggregation approach using models trained with different subsets of data, for which an ensemble XGBoost implementation outperformed all other modeling configurations (median RMSE 0.62 °C).The ML models improved median monthly Ts estimates compared to baseline statistical multi-linear regression models by 15–48% depending on the site and scenario. Air temperature was found to be the primary driver of monthly Ts for all sites, with secondary influence of month of the year (seasonality) and solar radiation, while discharge was a significant predictor at only 10 sites. The predictive performance of the ML models was robust to configuration changes in model setup and inputs, but was influenced by the distance to the nearest dam with RMSE <1 °C at sites situated greater than 16 and 44 km from a dam for the temporal single site and regional scenarios, and over 1.4 km from a dam for the PUB scenario. Our results show that classical ML models with solely meteorological inputs can be used for spatial and temporal predictions of monthly Ts in pristine and managed basins with reasonable (<1 °C) accuracy for most locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Study of Mini-Batch Size on a Long Short-Term Memory Network for In-situ Sensing of Core-to-shell Ratio of Microencapsulated Phase Change Materials

Microencapsulated phase change materials are being studied for applications for thermal energy storage in concentrated solar fields. During fabrication, the thickness of the encapsulation cannot be readily measured for real-time control. Therefore, a machine learning network, specifically a Long Short-Term Memory network, is being developed to estimate the ratio of the shell radius to core radius based on a one second temperature history. The mini-batch size determines how often the algorithm weights are updated during network training, and shuffle indicates whether the training data is shuffled during training. A general factorial design is used to analyze the effects of varying mini-batch size and shuffle, along with the core-to-shell ratio, on the RMSE of the response from the Long Short-Term Memory network. It was found that the network performed better for smaller core to shell ratios (less than 0.6) and had the lowest RMSE when the minibatch size was 128. The minimum RMSE found was 0.00501.

Shannon, Rebecca↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches

ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.

Fuller, M. R.↗