Results for “ROOT-MEAN-SQUARE ERROR” — Page 2

DOE OSTI2025

Detection of Diversion in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors (MRs) pose new challenges for international safeguards. Here, their small size and mass reproducibility make them ideal for deployment in greater numbers and in remote locations, making the job of safeguards inspectors more challenging. Machine learning (ML) is currently being applied to many fields to augment human performance and increase automation; in particular, ML could be used to provide insight for international inspectors to help detect the diversion of nuclear fuel from MR cores. Four ML model types (k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, and histogram-based gradient boosted ensemble) were trained on integrated flux and critical control drum angle data generated with Serpent 2 for a realistic heat pipe MR design, achieving nearly 100% binary classification accuracy of nominal and diversion core configurations by the end of 1 full power year for three of the four model types. Regression model variants were also trained, using the same input data, for predicting the number of fuel pins diverted. Root-mean-square errors below 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved by the 1 full power year mark for all models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pan-tropical daily L-band microwave land surface emissivity retrieval from GNSS-R observations

The uncertainties in microwave land surface emissivity (MLSE) measurements have long limited the use of spaceborne microwave radiometer data. As an emerging observation method, Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) has demonstrated great potential in several land and ocean applications. In this study, a method for obtaining daily MLSE dataset in the pan-tropical region from Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) observations is presented and evaluated. The CYGNSS observations are first aggregated into the Equal-Area-Scalable-Earth (EASE) 2.0 36 km grid by a combined weight function of distance, time, and signal-to-noise ratio variance. Then, the method employs a pixel-by-pixel regression algorithm to conduct the daily MLSE retrieval using reference emissivity derived from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) brightness temperature. The CYGNSS MLSE shows good agreement with SMAP MLSE, delivering an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.022 and 0.017 for horizontal and vertical polarization, respectively, during the training set spanning the whole year of 2018. Furthermore, on the test set from January 2019 to May 2019, the RMSE values amounted to 0.030 and 0.023 for horizontal and vertical polarization, respectively. Temperature records from the International Soil Moisture Network are employed to calculate the emissivity and for in-situ validation, which yield an RMSE of 0.034 and 0.026 for the two polarizations, respectively. The proposed algorithm provides an encouraging approach to obtain accurate daily MLSE dataset for microwave remote sensing. Compared to the SMAP MLSE, the CYGNSS MLSE has a remarkable improvement of 86% in temporal resolution, greatly complementing the existing microwave emissivity datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward Verification of RANS Simulations of the T-Tube Modular Divertor Using Large Eddy Simulations of Impinging Turbulent Plane Jets

Turbulent impinging jets have been proposed to cool high heat flux plasma-facing components such as the solid tungsten target plates of the divertor in long-pulse magnetic fusion energy reactors. In particular, the T-tube modular divertor, originally developed by the ARIES Team, consists of two concentric cylindrical tubes where helium flows through a slot in the inner tube, forming an approximately planar jet that impinges upon and cools the inner surface of the pressure boundary (namely, the outer tube) and the ~15-cm 2 plasma-facing W target. The objective of this work is to demonstrate that large eddy simulations (LESs) accurately simulate the thermal transport in canonical flows that comprise the cooling flow in the T-tube, as well as validate temperatures from LES with experimental measurements in a simplified T-tube geometry. Wall‑resolved LESs, validated by experimental data and verified by direct numerical simulations (DNSs), provide benchmark data for two canonical flows in the T‑tube, namely, planar impinging and wall jets, for Reynolds numbers Re B = 4 × 10 3 to 2 × 10 4 . Our LES results are within 4% to 12% root-mean-square error (RMSE) of surface Nusselt number distributions (Nu) from experiments and DNSs. The validated LES results are then used as the ground truth to evaluate four Reynolds‑averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closures, namely, the k‑ω SST, realizable k‑ε, GEKO, and γ‑SST models. The k‑ω SST model has the best overall performance in terms of heat transfer, giving surface Nu within 12% RMSE of the LES results for high‑ReB impinging jets and reduced overprediction in the wall‑jet region. The GEKO model with default constants has the next best performance, providing slightly better Nu predictions for low ReB impinging jets (versus k-ω SST) but worse overall performance over the full range of ReB studied here. The realizable k‑ε turbulence model significantly overestimates turbulence near the stagnation point, while the γ‑SST model suppresses near‑wall production, biasing the simulations toward simulating laminar surface heat transfer. Simulations of the simplified T‑tube show that LES and RANS simulations with the k‑ω SST model give nearly identical average heat transfer coefficients (HTCs) over the impingement surface. The realizable k‑ε model predicts significantly lower wall temperatures due to overestimation of HTC in the outlet flow.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural network emulation of spontaneous fission

Large-scale computations of fission properties are an important ingredient for nuclear reaction network calculations simulating rapid neutron-capture process (the 𝑟 process) nucleosynthesis. Due to the large number of fissioning nuclei potentially contributing to the 𝑟 process, a microscopic description of fission based on nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is computationally challenging. Here, we explore the use of neural networks (NNs) to construct DFT emulators capable of predicting potential energy surfaces and collective inertia tensors across the whole nuclear chart, starting from a minimal set of DFT calculations. We use constrained Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) calculations to predict the potential energy and collective inertia tensor in the axial quadrupole and octupole collective coordinates, for a set of nuclei in the 𝑟-process region. We then employ NNs to emulate the HFB energy and collective inertia tensor across the considered region of the nuclear chart. Least-action pathways characterizing spontaneous fission half-lives and fragment yields are then obtained by means of the nudged elastic band method. The potential energy predicted by NNs agrees with the DFT value to within a root-mean-square error of 500 keV, and the collective inertia components agree to within an order of magnitude. These results are largely independent of the NN architecture. The exit points on the outer turning line are found to be well emulated. For the spontaneous fission half-lives the NN emulation provides values that are found to agree with the DFT predictions within a factor of 10 3 across more than 70 orders of magnitude. Neural networks are able to emulate the potential energy and collective inertia well enough to reasonably predict physical observables. Future directions of study, such as the inclusion of additional collective degrees of freedom and active learning, will improve the predictive power of microscopic theory and further enable large-scale fission studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Machine Learning based Approach of Estimating Equivalent Circuit Model Parameters at Different SoCs of Li-ion Batteries from Voltage Relaxation

Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.

Sagar, Md. Samiul [The University of Alabama (UA)]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time High-Accuracy Digital Wireless Time, Frequency, and Phase Calibration for Coherent Distributed Antenna Arrays

his work presents a fully-digital high-accuracy real-time calibration procedure for frequency and time alignment of open-loop wirelessly coordinated coherent distributed antenna array (CDA) modems, enabling radio frequency (RF) phase coherence of spatially separated commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software-defined radios (SDRs) without cables or external references such as the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Building on previous work using high-accuracy spectrally-sparse time of arrival (ToA) waveforms and a multistep ToA refinement process, a high-accuracy two-way time transfer (TWTT)-based time–frequency coordination approach is demonstrated. Due to the two-way nature of the high-accuracy TWTT approach, the time and frequency estimates are Doppler and multipath tolerant, so long as the channel is reciprocal over the synchronization epoch. This technique is experimentally verified using COTS SDRs in a lab environment in static and dynamic scenarios and with significant multipath scatterers. Time, frequency, and phase stability were evaluated by beamforming over coaxial cables to an oscilloscope which achieved time and phase precisions of ~60– 70 ps , with median coherent gains above 99% using optimized coordination parameters, and a beamforming frequency root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 3.73 ppb in a dynamic scenario. Finally, experiments were conducted to compare the performance of this technique with previous works using an analog continuous-wave two-tone (CWTT) frequency reference technique in both static and dynamic settings.

Clock synchronization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intercomparison of Deep Learning Model Architectures for Atmospheric River Prediction

With a rapid surge in the application of machine learning (ML) for a diverse range of tasks in climate science, the present study addresses a challenge for climate scientists when selecting the optimal ML or deep learning (DL) architecture for a given application. In particular, a DL intercomparison study was performed with a focus on forecasting the position of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on short-range time scales (up to 5-day lead times). AR predictions from multiple DL architectures, including various types of convolutional autoencoders and a vision transformer (ViT), were compared against ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis and hindcasts from a global climate model. DL models with similar trainable parameters were trained on ERA5 reanalysis data and AR positions derived from a thresholding algorithm to ensure a fair comparison among the DL models. Each model’s performance and accuracy in forecasting AR location and key input fields within a 5-day window were assessed using metrics of root-mean-square error, anomaly correlation, and mean intersection over union. The ViT architecture outperformed other autoencoder models in most of the metrics. Incorporating additional meteorological fields only yielded slight improvements in forecasting certain fields at longer lead times. The results also suggest that a smaller number of input time steps or smaller number of autoregressive steps can achieve better prediction skills, while also improving the overall computational efficiency. This research offers valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of different DL techniques for AR forecasting, hopefully guiding the development of improved models for forecasting this phenomenon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Fine-Resolution Shortwave Broadband Albedo of Croplands from Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data

Altered surface albedo due to land-cover conversions and management is a significant driver of global climate change. Albedo can be directly measured at ground stations, and remote sensing data can be used to scale-up albedo values to regional and global levels. Some previous studies have retrieved fine-resolution (10–30 m) instantaneous albedo and coarse-resolution (500–1000 m) daily mean albedo from remote sensing data, but they all required the input of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo information at 500-m resolution, and none have assembled both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data. Here, to address this issue, we compiled 387 instantaneous and 346 daily albedo records using field net radiometer measurements from the bioenergy croplands at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station in southwest Michigan. We then connected these albedo records with a suite of variables derived from harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data through two machine learning algorithms (random forest regression and extreme gradient boosting) to retrieve clear-sky instantaneous and daily shortwave broadband albedo. The performance statistics indicate reasonable accuracy of model results [root-mean-square error (RMSE)] around or below 0.03 except for snow-covered surfaces), suggesting that the retrieval of both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data is promising. To facilitate the use of fine-resolution albedo products at the global level, future efforts need to include more albedo records of diverse surface cover types, as well as to accurately model daily albedo for cloudy days to address the “clear-sky bias.”

Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Biases in Global Monsoon Simulations from the Perspective of Atmospheric Energy Transport

Understanding global monsoon (GM) variability and projecting its future changes rely heavily on climate models. However, climate models generally show pronounced biases in GM simulations, and the reasons for this remain unclear. Here, in this study, we evaluate the performance of 20 pairs of climate models that participated in both phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and phase 6 of CMIP (CMIP6) and identify the sources of their GM simulation biases from an energy transport perspective. The multimodel mean improvement in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is demonstrated by the increasing skill scores for various GM metrics from 0.20–0.79 to 0.48–0.83. More specifically, the dry biases in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon (NHSM) precipitation in CMIP5 [root-mean-square error (RMSE): 1.85 mm day −1 ] are reduced in CMIP6 (RMSE: 1.66 mm day −1 ). This higher simulation skill is associated with higher skill in simulating the precipitation-solstitial mode, monsoon intensity, and monsoon domains. The improvement in the NHSM precipitation simulation results from that in the meridional transport of atmospheric energy. Atmospheric energy budget analysis shows that the negative biases in downward surface longwave radiation and northward energy transport are smaller in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 in the boreal summer, resulting in a more realistic interhemispheric thermal contrast and meridional gradient of moist static energy. However, a major weakness of the CMIP6 models is found in the Southern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon precipitation simulation due to the positive bias in the top-of-the-atmosphere downward longwave radiation. This study shows that reasonably reproducing the meridional global atmospheric energy transportation is necessary for skillful GM simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spectral Data Fusion From Handheld Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) Analyzers for Improved Detection of Cerium in a Simulated Dispersal Accident

Here, this work implements a mid-level data fusion methodology on spectral data from handheld X-ray fluorescence and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy analyzers to quantify plutonium surrogate (CeO 2 ) contamination in soil samples for the first time. Spectral data from each analyzer were used independently to train supervised machine learning regressions to predict Ce concentration. Fused features from both data sets were then used to train the same models, comparing prediction performance by evaluating model precision and sensitivity. Fusing principal component scores from the two sensors yielded an order of magnitude improvement in precision and sensitivity of predictions made with an artificial neural network, compared to predictions made by models trained on independent sensor data. As a result, a boosted ensemble trained on the fused spectral features yielded an ideal predictor with root-mean-squared error on the order of 10 –6 and calculated limit of detection order 10 –5 wt %.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Combined speckle- and propagation-based single shot two-dimensional phase retrieval method

Single-shot two-dimensional (2D) phase retrieval (PR) can recover the phase shift distribution within an object from a single 2D x-ray phase contrast image (XPCI). Two competing XPCI imaging modalities often used for single-shot 2D PR to recover material properties critical for predictive performance capabilities are: speckle-based (SP-XPCI) and propagation-based (PB-XPCI) XPCI imaging. However, PR from SP-XPCI and PB-XPCI images are, respectively, limited to reconstructing accurately slowly and rapidly varying features due to noise and differences in their contrast mechanisms. Herein, we consider a combined speckle- and propagation-based XPCI (SPB-XPCI) image by introducing a mask to generate a reference pattern and imaging in the near-to-holographic regime to induce intensity modulations in the image. We develop a single-shot 2D PR method for SPB-XPCI images of pure phase objects without imposing restrictions such as object support constraints. It is compared against PR methods inspired by those developed for SP-XPCI and PB-XPCI on simulated and experimental images of a thin glass shell before and during shockwave compression. Reconstructed phase maps show improvements in quantitative scores of root-mean-square error and structural similarity index measure using our proposed method.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of deep learning to single-shot gas-phase laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

Single-shot fs laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) has the potential to capture ns-scale electrode desorption phenomena in pulsed power fusion drivers. However, the successful implementation of the diagnostic for this purpose is challenging, as it requires interpreting single-shot measurements collected from low-density gas mixtures. In this work, we demonstrate the efficacy of a Bayesian-optimized convolutional neural network (CNN) to interpret these measurements. We generated 256 distinct measurement conditions at relevant gas pressures ranging from 80–530 mTorr by mixing 100–250 sccm H 2 and 50–200 sccm CH 4 in increments of 10 sccm. Despite the considerable overlap between signals separated by 20 sccm, the CNN is able to predict the H 2 flow rate with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 15.9 sccm and the CH 4 flow rate with an RMSE of 12.0 sccm. The average relative prediction error is <9% for each gas and largely remains below or near 10%.

Brown, Nathan Parnell [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-N↗

DOE OSTI2026

Determining Optimal Magnetometer Configuration on MAGIS-100

Long-baseline atom interferometers such as the Matter-wave Atomic Gradiometer Interferometric Sensor (MAGIS-100) require stringent control and continuous characterization of background magnetic fields and spatial gradients to prevent systemic phase shifts that mimic ultralight dark matter or gravitational wave signatures. Because direct sensor placement within the ultra-high vacuum beam pipe is infeasible, in-situ magnetic field monitoring relies on external sensor arrays situated in the surrounding annular region. This work demonstrates a field reconstruction framework for a 5.3-meter MAGIS-100 modular section using finite-element Opera simulations. Transverse magnetic fields are expanded using a cylindrical multipole framework as informed by Fermilab’s Muon g-2 experiment, with magnetometer array configurations optimized via Fisher information matrix D-optimality. Inverting external sensor readings through a Gauss-Newton scheme recovers interior tube fields across distinct axial positions. In the discontinuity-averse uniform region (slice pair P4), the model achieves sub-noise-floor performance with a cross-validated root-mean-square error (RMSE) of $6.7227 \times 10^{-4}\text{ A/m}$ ($0.845\times$ sensor noise floor) and an interior field coefficient of variation of $1.71\%$. An elbow criterion in the Fisher bounds establishes $n_{\text{max}} = 2$ as the optimal multipole truncation order to prevent noise amplification from over-parameterization, with $n_{\text{max}} = 3$ (sextupole) order chosen for analysis to demonstrate further complexity and cross-pair comparison. Furthermore, analytical differentiation of the fitted multipole coefficients yields dense spatial maps of the transverse Jacobian gradient matrix $\nabla \mathbf{H}$ along with propagated $1\sigma$ uncertainty bounds across the beam region ($r \le 2.75\text{ in}$). This operational framework confirms that external magnetometer arrays can reliably monitor magnetic field uniformity and spatial gradients along the 100-meter flight path given appropriate sampling for any complexity order.

Appleby, Darwin [William Rainey Harper Coll.] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Determining Optimal Magnetometer Configuration on MAGIS-100

Long-baseline atom interferometers such as the Matter-wave Atomic Gradiometer Interferometric Sensor (MAGIS-100) require stringent control and continuous characterization of background magnetic fields and spatial gradients to prevent systemic phase shifts that mimic ultralight dark matter or gravitational wave signatures. Because direct sensor placement within the ultra-high vacuum beam pipe is infeasible, in-situ magnetic field monitoring relies on external sensor arrays situated in the surrounding annular region. This work demonstrates a field reconstruction framework for a 5.3-meter MAGIS-100 modular section using finite-element Opera simulations. Transverse magnetic fields are expanded using a cylindrical multipole framework as informed by Fermilab’s Muon g-2 experiment, with magnetometer array configurations optimized via Fisher information matrix D-optimality. Inverting external sensor readings through a Gauss-Newton scheme recovers interior tube fields across distinct axial positions. In the discontinuity-averse uniform region (slice pair P4), the model achieves sub-noise-floor performance with a cross-validated root-mean-square error (RMSE) of $6.7227 \times 10^{-4}\text{ A/m}$ ($0.845\times$ sensor noise floor) and an interior field coefficient of variation of $1.71\%$. An elbow criterion in the Fisher bounds establishes $n_{\text{max}} = 2$ as the optimal multipole truncation order to prevent noise amplification from over-parameterization, with $n_{\text{max}} = 3$ (sextupole) order chosen for analysis to demonstrate further complexity and cross-pair comparison. Furthermore, analytical differentiation of the fitted multipole coefficients yields dense spatial maps of the transverse Jacobian gradient matrix $\nabla \mathbf{H}$ along with propagated $1\sigma$ uncertainty bounds across the beam region ($r \le 2.75\text{ in}$). This operational framework confirms that external magnetometer arrays can reliably monitor magnetic field uniformity and spatial gradients along the 100-meter flight path given appropriate sampling for any complexity order.

Appleby, Darwin [William Rainey Harper Coll.] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Longitudinal Phase Space Tomography for the Booster Synchrotron

Efforts in the study of the longitudinal behavior of charged particles in the Fermilab Booster can be catalyzed with an image of the two-dimensional phase space distribution. In the past, tomography has been extensively employed in the reconstruction of the phase space in accelerators such as the Recycler at Fermilab and the Proton Synchrotron Booster at CERN. However, such a capability had yet to realize for the Fermilab Booster synchrotron. In this work, the first successful tomographic phase space reconstruction of a low-energy Booster bunch is presented along with validation metrics. A numerical turn-by-turn model of the longitudinal particle dynamics in the Booster has been implemented, which utilizes a fast, map-based particle transport algorithm. Using a sinogram generated from the Wall Current Monitor, the iterative reconstruction algorithm recovers a discretized image of the original phase space distribution at variable resolution. The reconstruction result shows low root-mean-square error and a rapid convergence toward the solution, providing strong evidence of accuracy. Future and ongoing work includes modeling high-energy bunches above transition and using tomography to infer certain machine parameters such as synchronous phase, peak gap voltage, and synchronous energy in addition to the phase space distribution.

Ebeid, Safi [Unlisted]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Longitudinal Phase Space Tomography for the Booster Synchrotron (Abstract Only)

Efforts in the study of the longitudinal behavior of charged particles in the Fermilab Booster can be catalyzed with an image of the two-dimensional phase space distribution. In the past, tomography has been extensively employed in the reconstruction of the phase space in accelerators such as the Recycler at Fermilab and the Proton Synchrotron Booster at CERN. However, such a capability had yet to realize for the Fermilab Booster synchrotron. In this work, the first successful tomographic phase space reconstruction of a low-energy Booster bunch is presented along with validation metrics. A numerical turn-by-turn model of the longitudinal particle dynamics in the Booster has been implemented, which utilizes a fast, map-based particle transport algorithm. Using a sinogram generated from the Wall Current Monitor, the iterative reconstruction algorithm recovers a discretized image of the original phase space distribution at variable resolution. The reconstruction result shows low root-mean-square error and a rapid convergence toward the solution, providing strong evidence of accuracy. Future and ongoing work includes modeling high-energy bunches above transition and using tomography to infer certain machine parameters such as synchronous phase, peak gap voltage, and synchronous energy in addition to the phase space distribution.

Ebeid, Safi [Unlisted, US]↗

DOE OSTI2024

The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2

Abstract. A new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system based on the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method is developed and applied to the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) method is employed to implement 4DVar using the ensemble technique instead of the adjoint technique. With an interest in providing initial conditions for decadal climate predictions, monthly mean anomalies of soil moisture and temperature from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) reanalysis from 1980 to 2016 are assimilated into the land component of E3SMv2 within the coupled modeling framework with a 1-month assimilation window. The coupled assimilation experiment is evaluated using multiple metrics, including the cost function, assimilation efficiency index, correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and bias, and compared with a control simulation without land data assimilation. The WCLDA system yields improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature compared with the control simulation, with improvements found throughout the soil layers and in many regions of the global land. In terms of both soil moisture and temperature, the assimilation experiment outperforms the control simulation with reduced RMSE and higher temporal correlation in many regions, especially in South America, central Africa, Australia, and large parts of Eurasia. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought, highlighting the crucial role of land surface in drought lifecycle. The WCLDA system is intended to be a foundational resource for research to investigate land-derived climate predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Differences in cluster and internal wake effects from mesoscale and large-eddy simulations off the US East Coast

Mesoscale simulations are increasingly used to estimate wake effects within and between large wind farms, despite limited validation for large-scale wake effects. This study evaluates the capabilities and limitations of mesoscale simulations in capturing wake-induced impacts on wind turbine power production through a direct comparison with large-domain large-eddy simulations (LESs) for three planned offshore wind farms under realistic atmospheric conditions and a range of atmospheric stabilities. We assess mesoscale performance in replicating wake characteristics behind single and multiple turbine clusters and quantify the resulting variability in mean turbine power. Results show that mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Fitch wind farm parameterization capture key features of the velocity deficit downstream of both single and multiple wind farms, with mean root-mean-square errors near 5 % and good agreement with stability-driven wake behavior. However, in these simulations, the mesoscale Fitch parameterization underestimates power losses from internal wake effects, particularly when turbines align with the prevailing wind direction or under stable stratification. In these conditions, individual wakes persist and dominate downstream power deficits. The coarse resolution of the mesoscale simulations limits their ability to resolve individual wind turbine wakes that drive power fluctuations within wind farms. Nonetheless, mesoscale simulations can yield accurate estimates of combined wake losses from internal and cluster effects across some wind direction sectors, where errors in wake representation may cancel each other out. These findings underscore the strengths of mesoscale simulations for capturing broader wake patterns while highlighting their limitations for modeling turbine-level power losses. Future work should explore hybrid modeling approaches to capture both long-range cluster wake propagation and localized internal wake dynamics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗