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The Use of Spire Radio Occultation Measurements in the GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

As part of the pilot segment of the NASA Commercial SmallSat Data Acquisition (CSDA) Program, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) evaluated products acquired from Spire Global, Inc. in the context of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS). Specifically, the GMAO assimilated the bending angle profiles derived by Spire from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) measurements of the atmosphere made by their Stratos instruments onboard their constellation of Lemur small satellites. The bending angle observations were used to further constrain the thermodynamic fields in the context of the global observing system typically assimilated within GEOS.

Will Mccarty↗

Assessment of New Radio Occultation Measurements at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Recent advances at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have focused on the assimilation of additional radio occultation (RO) bending angle measurements in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system. These efforts targeted the GEOS near-real-time forward processing system and may serve as the backbone for the next atmospheric reanalysis of the 21st century. In the most recent system upgrade, the assimilated RO counts increased by a factor of four with the addition of the COSMIC-2 constellation. Furthermore, with the advent of near-real-time commercial RO measurements, even more growth is expected. This presentation will quantify the impacts of new public and commercially-sourced data available to the GEOS system. The RO data assimilated in these experiments are from both the routinely acquired operational data streams as well as those from Spire Global, Inc. available via the Commercial SmallSat Data Acquisition (CSDA) Program.

Will McCarty↗

Use of three-cornered hat error estimates in MERRA-2 to guide an improved reanalysis-Part 1

The three-cornered hat (3CH) method estimates the uncertainties of three different co-located model or observational data sets (Anthes and Rieckh, 2018; Sjoberg et al., 2021). Rieckh et al. (2021) used the 3CH method to compare the random error statistics of different global forecast and reanalysis models, as well as radio occultation (RO) and radiosonde observations. That study showed that the MERRA-2 reanalysis, while having smaller errors in the stratosphere than its predecessor MERRA, had larger errors in the troposphere than many of the other data sets analyzed. The MERRA-2 errors were particularly large in the tropics. In a collaborative effort between UCAR’s COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Meteorology) program and NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), we carried out further 3CH error diagnostics to help isolate the causes of these larger errors and help guide the development of an improved reanalysis. This presentation summarizes random error statistics associated with MERRA-2, ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis, and COSMIC-2 (C2) RO observations. We compute 3CH error variance estimates of refractivity, as well as temperature and specific humidity using UCAR’s COSMIC Data Analysis and Archive Center (CDAAC) improved 1D-variational (1D-Var) retrieval (wetPf2) over 15 latitude bands from 45S to 45N. The 1D-Var retrievals of specific humidity and temperature for C2 use NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS) as the background. Anthes et al. (2021) showed that it gives accurate estimates of temperature and specific humidity in the tropics and subtropics, even in the challenging environment of intense Hurricane Dorian (2019). This presentation confirms the previous results that MERRA-2 has significantly larger errors in the tropics and subtropics than either C2 or ERA5. Its errors are larger between 30S and 30N compared to 30-45 N-S latitudes, and are also larger over land compared to oceans. Most of the MERRA-2 refractivity errors come from specific humidity, except over land below 3 km where temperature errors are large. These results suggest that moist convection and atmospheric boundary layer physics in MERRA-2 may be responsible for a significant part of the higher uncertainties. These results are being used to guide GMAO in developing an improved next-generation reanalysis, as shown in a companion presentation submitted to this conference (El Akkraoui et al., 2021), which extends this study and describes improvements to MERRA-2 leading to the next GMAO reanalysis.

Jeremiah Sjoberg↗

Senteniel-6 Radio Occultation Product Released by NASA GES DISC to Supplement Satellite Remote Sensing Datasets for PBL Study

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) curates hyperspectral atmospheric sounder remote sensing and numerical model reanalysis datasets which have been utilized in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) research and applications. The hyperspectral sounder remote-sensing datasets include the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua satellite to the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on Suomi--National Polar- orbiting Partnership (NPP) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -20 (N NOAA-20)/ Joint Polar-orbiting Satellite System -1 (JPSS-1). The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) global reanalysis product provides a data record commencing in 1980. The sounder remote sensing and reanalysis datasets include temperature, water vapor, and trace gas profile down to the PBL, and also have a derived PBL height as well. A nearly 10-year (June 2006 to December 2015) seasonal and annual PBL height climatology dataset from COSMIC Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) measurement is also available from the GES DISC. In collaboration with Sentinel-6 Project, the GES DISC is implementing curation activities for GNSS RO products from the Sentinel-6A/Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite launched on November 21, 2020. Sentinel-6A RO products provide refractivity, temperature, and humidity profile with finer vertical resolution, leveraging PBL research and application as a supplement to the hyperspectral sounder remote sensing and reanalysis products. The public release of Sentinel- 6A RO products is scheduled for mid-October of 2021. In this presentation, we will introduce all Senitnel-6A products and services, and demonstrate use cases studying the PBL by combining these products with other GES DISC archived data products.

Feng Ding↗

Nighttime Convection in Water-ice Clouds at High Northern Latitudes on Mars

We investigate water-ice clouds and their influence on the temperature structure of the Mar-tian atmosphere at high northern latitudes in early summer. New results are obtained throughcoordinated analysis of two types of data from Mars Global Surveyor: atmospheric profiles re-trieved from radio occultation (RO) measurements and wide-angle images from the Mars OrbiterCamera (MOC). Some RO profiles contain a layer of neutral static stability, which indicates thepresence of convective mixing at a local time (about 5 h) when it does not usually occur. Thesenocturnal mixed layers (NMLs) were observed frequently in early summer of Mars year 27 atlatitudes of 53–72◦N and longitudes of 210–330◦E. The base of a typical NML is 3 km abovethe surface, about the same height as the nighttime cloud layer detected by the Phoenix LIDARin early summer of Mars year 29 at 234◦E, 68◦N. The depth of the NMLs ranges from less than1 km to more than 5 km. Comparisons with nearly simultaneous MOC images demonstrate thatNMLs are closely associated with water-ice clouds. There is a dense cluster of NMLs within theannular cloud that appears every year in early summer between Alba Mons and the north polarresidual ice cap. The lighting conditions at this location and season allowed MOC to observe theannular cloud on most orbits, at 118-min intervals. Its appearance varies dramatically with localtime, becoming more symmetrical and better organized at night and dissipating to a crescentshape during the day. According to high-resolution numerical simulations (Spiga et al., 2017),including a large-eddy simulation at the Phoenix landing site, NMLs form when radiative cool-ing by water-ice aerosols causes convective instability; the mixed layer is forced from above bynegative buoyancy. Our results strongly support this conclusion. In addition, MOC images frommidsummer contain eastward-moving frontal clouds. Temperature profiles within these cloudsshow signs of near-surface advection of warm air, which reduces the static stability of the loweratmosphere and contributes, along with cloud radiation, to the formation of an NML.

David Hinson↗

Defining the upper boundary of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) using the static stability

The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) is located in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian Summer Monsoon. However, what dynamical feature separates the ATAL from the well-known stratospheric ‘Junge layer’ is not yet clear. In this study, using the in-situ (Radiosonde, Ozonesonde, backscatter sonde and cryogenic frost-point hygrometer) observations from multiple locations in India (Gadanki (13.45° N, 79.18° E), Hyderabad (17.47° N, 78.58° E) and Varanasi (25.27° N, 82.99° E)) and multi-satellite observations ((Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Observation, (CALIPSO), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) and Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Position System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) (COSMIC GPS-RO)) we show that the ATAL can exist up to the layer of maximum stability (LmaxS), located a few kilometers above the tropopause, determined using the square of Brunt Väisäla frequency. These in-situ observations over Indian stations collected during the ISRO-NASA Balloon Measurement Campaigns of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (BATAL) show that the ATAL top can reach up to ∼442 K potential temperature level over the Indian region. The LmaxS delineated from COSMIC GPSRO observations over the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA) region indicates that the top of ATAL can reach up to 454 K potential temperature level, which is lower than the earlier Lagrangian transport model predicted 460 K. The temperature inversion at LmaxS acts as a lid and constrains the direct transport of aerosols to higher altitudes.

S.T. Akhil Raj↗

Global Ionospheric Electron Density from GNSS-POD Limb Measurements

GNSS-LEO radio links from Precise Orbital Determination (POD) and Radio Occultation (RO) antennas have been used increasingly in studying and monitoring the global ionospheric electron density (Ne). In this study we developed an optimal estimation (OE) method to retrieve Ne profiles from the slant total electron content (hTEC) measurements acquired by the GNSS-POD links at negative elevation angles. The hmF2 and NmF2 from the OE retrieval are validated against ground-based ionosondes and radar observations, showing generally good agreements in NmF2 from all sites. Nighttime hmF2 measurements tend to agree better than the daytime when the ionosonde heights tend to be slightly lower. The OE algorithm has been applied to all GNSS-POD data acquired from the COSMIC-1 (2006-2019), COSMIC-2 (2019-present), and Spire (2019-present) constellations, showing a consistent ionospheric Ne morphology. A detailed analysis of the frequency-wavenumber spectra is made for the Ne variability at different heights. In the lower ionosphere (~150 km) we found significant spectral power in DE1, DW6, DW4, SW5, and SE4 wave components, in addition to well-known DW1, SW2 and DE3 waves. In the upper ionosphere (~450 km), additional wave components are still present, including DE4, DW4, DW6, SE4 and SW4. The co-exist of eastward and westward propagating WN4 components implies the presence of a stationary planetary wave4 (sPW4), as suggested by other earlier studies.

GNSS-POD↗

The Impact of Assimilating Large Volumes of GNSS Radio Occultation Observations from Spire’s Commercial Constellation into NASA’s Global Earth Observing System

The upcoming retrospective analysis for the 21st century (R21C) reanalysis product from NASA will include the full dataset of GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) observations collected by Spire with their constellation of smallsats. The Spire RO dataset, which was purchased by NASA for its Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) archive, has global coverage and includes approximately 6 thousand RO profiles per day during 2019 increasing to nearly 20 thousand in 2022-2023. This more than doubles the volume of RO profiles from all other routinely assimilated RO missions combined during 2023. The increase in the number of RO profiles available is particularly important in the extratropics as the next largest RO constellation, the state-of-the-science Formosa Satellite Mission 7 (FORMOSAT-7)/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC-2) mission (hereafter COSMIC-2), is focused on the Tropics and only provides approximately 4 thousand RO profiles per day. The large number of observations in the Spire RO dataset have great potential to improve analyses and forecasts of the Earth’s atmosphere produced by numerical weather prediction systems. Their impact is assessed through numerical experiments using NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) with and without the observations from the COSMIC-2 mission. The ability of the Spire RO observations to make up for the omission of the RO observations from COSMIC-2 is directly assessed over the tropics and the impact of Spire over the extratropics is compared to that of the available RO missions that sample over this region. Finally, the quality of the Spire RO observations is compared to that of the routinely assimilated RO missions using Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impact (FSOI).

Michael J. Murphy, Jr.↗

The Impact of Assimilating Large Volumes of GNSS Radio Occultation Observations from Spire’s Commercial Constellation into NASA’s GEOS

The upcoming retrospective analysis for the 21st century (R21C) reanalysis product from NASA will include the full dataset of GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) observations collected by Spire with their constellation of smallsats. The Spire RO dataset, which was purchased by NASA for its Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) archive, has global coverage and includes approximately 6 thousand RO profiles per day during 2019 increasing to nearly 20 thousand in 2022-2023. This more than doubles the volume of RO profiles from all other routinely assimilated RO missions combined during 2023. The increase in the number of RO profiles available is particularly important in the extratropics as the next largest RO constellation, the state-of-the-science Formosa Satellite Mission 7 (FORMOSAT-7)/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC-2) mission (hereafter COSMIC-2), is focused on the Tropics and only provides approximately 4 thousand RO profiles per day. The large number of observations in the Spire RO dataset have great potential to improve analyses and forecasts of the Earth’s atmosphere produced by numerical weather prediction systems. Their impact is assessed through numerical experiments using NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) with and without the observations from the COSMIC-2 mission. The ability of the Spire RO observations to make up for the omission of the RO observations from COSMIC-2 is directly assessed over the tropics and the impact of Spire over the extratropics is compared to that of the available RO missions that sample over this region. Finally, the quality of the Spire RO observations is compared to that of the routinely assimilated RO missions using Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impact (FSOI).

Michael J. Murphy↗

The Impact of Assimilating Large Volumes of GNSS Radio Occultation Observations from Spire’s Commercial Constellation into NASA’s GEOS

The upcoming retrospective analysis for the 21st century (R21C) reanalysis product from NASA will include the full dataset of GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) observations collected by Spire with their constellation of smallsats. The Spire RO dataset, which was purchased by NASA for its Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) archive, has global coverage and increases in number from approximately 6 thousand RO profiles per day during 2019 to approximately 20 thousand in 2022-2023. This more than doubles the volume of RO profiles from all other routinely assimilated RO missions combined during 2022. The increase in the number of RO profiles available is particularly important in the extratropics as the next largest RO constellation, the state-of-the-science Formosa Satellite Mission 7 (FORMOSAT-7)/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC-2) mission (hereafter COSMIC-2), is focused on the Tropics and only provides approximately 4 thousand RO profiles per day. The large number of observations in the Spire RO dataset have great potential to improve analyses and forecasts of the Earth’s atmosphere produced by numerical weather prediction systems. Their impact is assessed through numerical experiments using NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) with and without the observations from the COSMIC-2 mission. The ability of the Spire RO observations to make up for the omission of the RO observations from COSMIC-2 is directly assessed over the tropics and the impact of Spire over the extratropics is compared to that of the available RO missions that sample over this region. Finally, the quality of the Spire RO observations is compared to that of the routinely assimilated RO missions using Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impact (FSOI).

Michael J. Murphy↗

New Science Opportunities on COSMIC-2/FORMOSAT-7

COSMIC-2 Polar (second launch) is an excellent opportunity to extend SSAEM capabilities to global coverage. Enhanced ionospheric remote sensing via oceanic TEC and DORIS. Science: lower-upper atmosphere coupling. Additional payloads are being considered by NSPO/Taiwan.

atmosphere↗

Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Structure from NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s Next Retrospective Analysis Product MERRA-21C

The Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) is a complex interface between Earth’s surface and the atmosphere with high spatiotemporal variability in its characteristics, and accurate simulation and observation of the PBL has proven to be a challenge. In this study, we evaluate PBL structures from NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)’s next retrospective analysis product: the Goddard Earth Observing System Retrospective Analysis of the early 21st Century (GEOS-R21C), with 25-km horizontal resolution. The GEOS-R21C incorporates a wide range of observing systems and various improvements over previous GMAO reanalysis. We compare the PBL thermodynamic structure as well as PBL Height (PBLH) from GEOS-R21C with various PBL observations. For PBLH, definitions are different depending on each observing system. PBLHs derived from radiosonde observations and Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultation (GNSS RO) are based on bulk Richardson number and refractivity gradient, respectively. The results of the evaluation of PBL structure from GMAO’s next retrospective analysis product will be presented. In addition, comparison between near-real-time (NRT) commercial and NASA commercial GNSS RO PBLH will also be discussed.

Eun-Gyeong Yang↗

New Global Electron Density Observations from GPS-RO in the D- and E-Region Ionosphere

A novel retrieval technique is developed for electron density (N(sub e)) in the D- and E-region (80-120 km) using the high-quality 50-Hz GPS radio occultation (GPS-RO) phase measurements. The new algorithm assumes a slow, linear variation in the F-region background when the GPS-RO passes through the D- and E-region, and extracts the N(sub e) profiles at 80-130 km from the phase advance signal caused by N(sub e). Unlike the conventional Abel function, the new approach produces a sharp N(sub e) weighting function in the lower ionosphere, and the N(sub e) retrievals are in good agreement with the IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) model in terms of monthly maps, zonal means and diurnal variations. The daytime GPS-RO N(sub e) profiles can be well characterized by the alpha-Chapman function of three parameters (N(sub mE), h(sub mE) and H), showing that the bottom of E-region is deepening and sharpening towards the summer pole. At high latitudes the monthly GPS-RO N(sub e) maps at 80-120 km reveal clear enhancement in the auroral zones, more prominent at night, as a result of energetic electron precipitation (EEP) from the outer radiation belt. The D-/E-region auroral N(sub e) is strongly correlated with K(sub p) on a daily basis. The new N(sub e) data allow further comprehensive analyses of the sporadic E (E(sub s)) phenomena in connection with the background N(sub e) in the E-region. The layered (2-10 km) and fluctuated (less than 2 km) E(sub s) components, namely N(sub e_Layer) than N(sub e_Pert), are extracted with respect to the background N( sub e_Region) on a profile-by-profile basis. The N(sub e_Layer) component has a strong but highly-refined peak at approximately 105 km, with an amplitude smaller than N(sub e_Region) approximately by an order of magnitude. The N(sub e_Pert) component, which was studied extensively in the past, is approximately 2 orders of magnitude weaker than N(sub e_Layer). Both N(sub e_Layer) and N(sub e_Pert) are subject to significant diurnal and semidiurnal variations, showing downward progression with local time in amplitude. The 11-year solar cycle dominates the N(sub e) interannual variations, showing larger N(sub e_Region) and N(sub e_Layer) but smaller N(sub e_Pert) amplitudes in the solar maximum years. Enhanced Ne profiles are often observed in the polar winter, showing good correlation with solar proton events (SPEs) and geomagnetic activity. The new methodology offers great potential for retrieving low N(sub e) in the D-region, where radio propagation and communication blackouts can occur due to enhanced ionization. For space weather applications it is recommended for GPSRO operations to raise the top of high-rate data acquisition to approximately 140 km in the future.

GSP-R↗

Optimal Estimation Inversion of Ionospheric Electron Density from GNSS-POD Limb Measurements: Part II-Validation and Comparison Using NmF2 and hmF2

A growing number of SmallSat/CubeSat constellations with high-rate (50–100 Hz) global navigation satellite system radio occultations (GNSS-RO) as well as low-rate (1 Hz) precise orbit determination (GNSS-POD) limb-viewing capabilities provide unprecedented spatial and temporal sampling rates for ionospheric studies. In the F-region electron density (N 𝑒 ) retrieval process, instead of the conventional onion-peeling (OP) inversion, an optimal estimation (OE) inversion technique was recently developed using total electron content measurements acquired by GNSS-POD link. The new technique is applied to data acquired from the COSMIC-1, COSMIC-2, and Spire constellations. Although both OE and OP techniques use the Abel weighting function in N 𝑒 inversion, OE significantly differs in its performance, especially in the lower F- and E-regions. In this work, we evaluate and compare newly derived data sets using F2 peak properties with other space-based and ground-based observations. We determine the F2 peak N 𝑒 (NmF2) and its altitude (hmF2), and compare them with the OP-retrieved values. Good agreement is observed between the two techniques for both NmF2 and hmF2. In addition, we also utilize autoscaled F2 peak measurements from a number of worldwide Digisonde stations (∼30). The diurnal sensitivity and latitudinal variability of the F2 peak between the two techniques are carefully studied at these locations. Good agreement is observed between OE-retrieved NmF2 and Digisonde-measured NmF2. However, significant differences appear between OE-retrieved hmF2 and Digisonde-measured hmF2. During the daytime, Digisonde-measured hmF2 remains ∼25–45 km below the OE-retrieved hmF2, especially at mid and high latitudes. We also incorporate F-region N 𝑒 measurements from two incoherent scatter radar observations at high latitudes, located in the North American (Millstone Hill) and European (EISCAT at Tromso) sectors. The radar measurements show good agreement with OE-retrieved values. Although there are several possible sources of error in the ionogram-derived N 𝑒 profiles, our further analysis on F1 and F2 layers indicates that the low Digisonde hmF2 is caused by the autoscaled method, which tends to detect a height systematically below the F2 peak when the F1 layer is present.

GNSS radio occultation↗

Investigation of the Potential Saturation of Information from Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultation Observations with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The potential impact of large numbers of Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS-RO) observations on numerical weather prediction is investigated using a global observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). The hybrid four-dimensional ensemble variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system and Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model are used to ingest up to 100,000 GNSS-RO soundings per day in addition to the current suite of conventional and radiance data. Analysis quality, forecast skill, and forecast sensitivity to observation impact are examined with differing quantities of additional GNSS-RO profiles. It is found that saturation of information from additional RO soundings has not been reached with 100,000 soundings per day. There are some indications of suboptimal performance of the GSI in handling GNSS-RO observations particularly in the middle and lower tropospheric extratropics.

GNSS-RO↗

Robustness of Observing System Simulation Experiments

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are used to investigate the potential performance of proposed new instruments on numerical weather prediction (NWP). As OSSEs involve a framework in which the atmosphere and observations are all completely simulated, it is necessary to perform validation of the OSSE to ensure that it is sufficiently realistic to provide useful experimental results. A common issue that affects the forecast skill and observation impacts is the tendency of OSSEs to have insufficient model error compared to NWP in the real world. In this work, two versions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) NWP OSSE framework are compared, with the newer framework having more simulated forecast model error than the older framework due to changes to the NWP system. The performance of the updated OSSE is validated against corresponding behavior of the same NWP system in the real world in terms of the simulated observations, the analysis increments, forecast error, and observation impacts. OSSE results of analysis and forecast impacts for three proposed new observation systems are also compared between the older and newer frameworks to evaluate the robustness of the OSSE experiments and the role of model error in observation impacts. These three new instruments are the Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) hyperspectral infrared sounder (GXS), the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds (MISTiC Winds) atmospheric motion vectors, and additional Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultations (GNSS-RO).

Observing System Simulation Experiments↗