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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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27 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Urban wash-off of tire wear particles

Tire wear particles (TWPs) are an important class of microplastics due to their toxicity and abundance. Because most TWPs are generated on impervious road surfaces, urban wash-off is the critical first phase of waterborne transport from their zone of production to stormwater drainage. However, little is known about the driving factors behind their mobilization. In this study, we use a rainfall simulator to investigate how surface roughness, rainfall intensity, and surface slope affect wash-off behaviors of TWPs. We also analyze how the size and shape of mobilized TWPs change over the course of simulated storm events. We found that low surface roughness, high rainfall intensity (most significant factor), and low slope result in the most rapid conveyance of TWP load. On average, large particles (>1000 µm) travelled faster than small particles (<125 µm). Particle shape explained a very small amount of variance in TWP wash-off velocity but was found to be more important under higher surface roughness conditions. In addition to wash-off velocity, we found similar conditions controlled the percent mobilization of TWPs. Low surface roughness and high rainfall intensity resulting in higher TWP wash-off rates is consistent with mineral sediment wash-off behavior. Conversely, low surface slope and large particle size leading to faster conveyance is directly opposed to mineral sediment wash-off. Our findings suggest drag-dominated flow and that sufficient runoff depth is the most important parameter governing TWP wash-off. These findings are important first steps to understanding wash-off behaviors of TWPs and informing future modeling efforts and mitigation strategies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrologic Response to Hurricane Ida in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here, we study the impacts of land-cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model coupled with the three-dimensional ParFlow subsurface flow model (ELM-ParFlow), we simulate the effects of land-cover change on the flood volume and peak timing induced by rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The results show that land-cover changes from 1850 to 2015, which resulted in a smoother surface and less vegetation, exacerbated both flood peak time and volume induced by Hurricane Ida. The effects of land-cover changes can be decomposed into two mechanisms: a smoother surface routes more water faster to a watershed outlet and less vegetation allows more water to contribute to surface runoff. By comparing scenarios in which the two mechanisms were isolated, we found that changes in soil moisture due to vegetation cover change have more dominant effects on floods in the southern part and changes in Manning’s coefficient have the largest effect on floods in the northern part of the LMRB. The study provides important insights into the complex relationship between land-use, land-cover, and hydrologic processes in coastal regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Influence of Plants on Hydrologic Cycling: Quantifying and Validating the Role of Plant Processes and Stomatal Conductance (Final Report)

Plants can exert strong controls on water cycling, both locally and across the globe. The impacts are driven by how plants control the exchange of water and energy between the land and the atmosphere, which in turn are influenced by how plants photosynthesize and grow (e.g. biogeochemical cycling). Our team has shown previously that plant responses to increasing CO 2 in the atmosphere can influence the water cycle through changes in rainfall and the amount of water on land with implications for drought. Plant responses can also alter both average and extreme flow of water in rivers, with implications for freshwater availability and flood frequency. Although the impact of plant responses on water cycling has been demonstrated to exist, significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of the magnitude and form of the plant responses themselves, as well as their ultimate impact on water availability for people and ecosystems. In this project we worked to quantify the role of plant processes in regulating water cycling (e.g., precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, droughts, etc.). We addressed the following objectives: quantify the control of physiological vs. radiative effects on water cycling across many coupled models in idealized and realistic scenarios, as well as to quantify how our assumptions about leaf-level processes (e.g. coupling between stomatal conductance and photosynthesis), and organism-level processes (e.g. leaf area response to high CO 2 ) contributed to uncertainties and biases in water cycling. We focused on the impact of these processes on water cycling to assess the sensitivities of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff to model assumptions about plant processes at the leaf, organism, and community level. As part of this project we used measurements of stable carbon isotopes to generate observationally based estimates of plant functioning during the historical period. This work is directly relevant to DOE’s primary scientific research questions in the RGMA topic area (b) on Biogeochemical processes, feedbacks, and interactions in the Earth system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dominance of Particulate Mercury in Stream Transport and Rapid Watershed Recovery from Wildfires in Northern California, USA

Frequency and intensity of wildfires are expected to increase due to climate change, especially in areas with a long summer drought. Forests are a major sink for the global pollutant mercury (Hg), and fluvial transport of Hg from recently burned watersheds has not been widely investigated. Here, we examined two years of fluvial transport of Hg and its speciation (total Hg, methyl-Hg, particulate, and dissolved forms) under storm events and baseflow in two recently burned watersheds with different burned proportions and one nonburned reference watershed in the Coastal Ranges of northern California. We examined postfire storm-event transport of Hg and its methylated form (methyl-Hg), addressed the importance of the “initial runoff pulse” to postfire Hg fluvial transport and its predominant association with suspended solids, and elucidated potential sources of Hg exports from the burned landscapes using geochemical indicators, which suggested that ash materials were likely the significant sources of particulates in the first high-flow season postfire but not subsequently. The maximum total suspended solid and total Hg levels in the “first pulse” at the severely burned watershed were 442 and 46 times higher, respectively, than those at the reference watershed. Stream suspended solid and Hg levels declined substantially in the burned watersheds after just a few months of rainfall likely due to the rapid regrowth of vegetation commonly observed in postfire landscapes, implying that the wildfire effects on immediate Hg inputs from the burned landscape are at most transient in nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deciphering the Role of Total Water Storage Anomalies in Mediating Regional Flooding

Regional floods result from various flood generation mechanisms. Traditional analyses mainly link flooding to extreme rainfall, with limited input from soil moisture. Total water storage (TWS) is a holistic measure of basin wetness, including additional storage components from surface water, snow, and groundwater. Utilizing a new 5-day Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its Follow On (GRACE(-FO)) data set, we investigated the linkage between short-term TWS anomaly (TWSA) and regional flooding. The 5-day TWSA solutions revealed flood signals missed by monthly TWSA solutions. Global basins exhibit distinct storage-discharge co-evolution patterns, offering new insights into flood mechanisms and propensity. Our bivariate event analyses show the annual maximum river discharges co-occur more often with the TWSA maxima than with precipitation in many basins. Further analyses revealed TWSA's time-lagged effect on river discharge, particularly in basins susceptible to floods triggered by saturation-excess runoff. The 5-day TWSA provides a new source of information for enhancing global flood preparedness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗