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NASA NTRS2014

Extending 3D Near-Cloud Corrections from Shorter to Longer Wavelengths

Satellite observations have shown a positive correlation between cloud amount and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) that can be explained by the humidification of aerosols near clouds, and/or by cloud contamination by sub-pixel size clouds and the cloud adjacency effect. The last effect may substantially increase reflected radiation in cloud-free columns, leading to overestimates in the retrieved AOT. For clear-sky areas near boundary layer clouds the main contribution to the enhancement of clear sky reflectance at shorter wavelengths comes from the radiation scattered into clear areas by clouds and then scattered to the sensor by air molecules. Because of the wavelength dependence of air molecule scattering, this process leads to a larger reflectance increase at shorter wavelengths, and can be corrected using a simple two-layer model. However, correcting only for molecular scattering skews spectral properties of the retrieved AOT. Kassianov and Ovtchinnikov proposed a technique that uses spectral reflectance ratios to retrieve AOT in the vicinity of clouds; they assumed that the cloud adjacency effect influences the spectral ratio between reflectances at two wavelengths less than it influences the reflectances themselves. This paper combines the two approaches: It assumes that the 3D correction for the shortest wavelength is known with some uncertainties, and then it estimates the 3D correction for longer wavelengths using a modified ratio method. The new approach is tested with 3D radiances simulated for 26 cumulus fields from Large-Eddy Simulations, supplemented with 40 aerosol profiles. The results showed that (i) for a variety of cumulus cloud scenes and aerosol profiles over ocean the 3D correction due to cloud adjacency effect can be extended from shorter to longer wavelengths and (ii) the 3D corrections for longer wavelengths are not very sensitive to unbiased random uncertainties in the 3D corrections at shorter wavelengths.

aerosol optical depth↗

NASA NTRS2022

Regression Bias in using Solar Wind Measurements

Simultaneous solar wind measurements from the solar wind monitors, WIND and ACE, differ due to the spatial and temporal structure of the solar wind. Correlation studies that use these measurements as input may infer an incorrect correlation due to uncertainties arising from this spatial and temporal structure, especially at extreme and rare solar wind values. In particular, regression analysis will lead to a regression function whose slope is biased towards the mean value of the measurement parameter. This article demonstrates this regression bias by comparing simultaneous ACE and WIND solar wind measurements. A non-linear regression analysis between them leads to a perception of underestimation of extreme values of one measurement on average over the other. Using numerical experiments, we show that popular regression analysis techniques such as linear least-squares, orthogonal least-squares, and non-linear regression are not immune to this bias. Hence while using solar wind parameters as an independent variable in a correlation or regression analysis, random uncertainty in the independent variable can create unintended biases in the response of the dependent variable. More generally, the regression to the mean effect can impact both event-based, statistical studies of magnetospheric response to solar wind forcing.

magnetosphere↗

NASA NTRS1978

Laser velocimeter survey about a NACA 0012 wing at low angles of attack

An investigation was conducted in the Langley V/STOL tunnel with a laser velocimeter to obtain measurements of airflow velocities about a wing at low angles of attack. The applicability of the laser velocimeter technique for this purpose in the V/STOL tunnel was demonstrated in this investigation with measurement precision bias calculated at -1.33 percent to 0.91 percent and a random uncertainty calculated at + or - 0.47 percent. Free stream measurements were obtained with this device and compared with velocity calculations from pitot static probe data taken near the laser velocimeter measurement location. The two measurements were in agreement to within 1 percent. Velocity measurement results about the centerline at 0.6 degrees angle of attack were typically those expected. At 4.75 degrees, the velocity measurements indicated that a short laminar separation bubble existed near the leading edge with an oscillating shear layer.

Hoad, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Stereographic cloud heights from the imagery of two scan-synchronized geostationary satellites

Scan synchronization of the sensors of two SMS-GOES satellites yields imagery from which cloud heights can be derived stereographically with a theoretical two-sigma random uncertainty of + or - 0.25 km for pairs of satellites separated by 60 degrees of longitude. Systematic height errors due to cloud motion can be kept below 100 m for all clouds with east-west components of speed below hurricane speed, provided the scan synchronization is within 40 seconds at the mid-point latitude, and the spin axis of each satellite is parallel to that of the earth.

Minzner, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Aerocapture and aeromaneuvering at Mars

This paper presents the results of a guidance analysis study for aerocapture and aeromaneuvering at Mars. A 4-state, near-optimal, hybrid guidance algorithm is derived for applications throughout the paper. It is based on the critical assumption that Loh's function remains constant between successive guidance updates. Besides the guidance algorithm, the paper presents a performance evaluation of guidance derived from estimated or 'navigated' spacecraft state, provided by an onboard navigation subsystem for real-time applications on Mars. For the performance evaluation, the spacecraft state is augmented by such parameters as the reference atmospheric density and scale-height, the banking angle and angle of attack for spacecraft control and the accelerometer measurement model errors. Finally, the paper examines also, the influence of random uncertainties in atmospheric density on aeroassisted maneuvers, by a Monte Carlo type of simulation.

Vijayaraghavan, A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Atmospheric moisture measurements - A microwave radiometer-radiosonde comparison

Measurements of the thermal emission of the sky at three frequencies (20.7, 22.2, and 31.4 GHz) with the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Crustal Dynamics Project MW Water Vapor Radiometer are reported. These measurements are compared with brightness temperatures inferred from measurements from VAISALA radiosonde packages launched every 3 hr during the experiment period. An error analysis for the radiosonde-inferred brightness temperatures is performed under the assumption of reasonable random uncertainties for the pressure, temperature, and humidity measurements and propagation of these uncertainties through the analysis algorithm. For the assumed uncertainties, the dominant contribution to the total uncertainty comes from the temperature measurement (66-88 percent), whereas the relative humidity measurement contributes only 2-8 percent, except in the vicinity of the water vapor line, where the contribution is 10-20 percent.

England, Martin N.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Advanced Vibration Analysis Tools and New Strategies for Robust Design of Turbine Engine Rotors

The adverse effects of small, random structural irregularities among the blades, called mistuning, can result in blade forced-response amplitudes and stresses that are much larger than those predicted for a perfectly tuned rotor. Manufacturing tolerances, deviations in material properties, or nonuniform operational wear causes mistuning; therefore, mistuning is unavoidable. Furthermore, even a small mistuning can have a dramatic effect on the vibratory behavior of a rotor because it can lead to spatial localization of the vibration energy (see the following photographs). As a result, certain blades may experience forced response amplitudes and stresses that are substantially larger than those predicted by an analysis of the nominal (tuned) design. Unfortunately, these random uncertainties in blade properties, and the immense computational effort involved in obtaining statistically reliable design data, combine to make this aspect of rotor design cumbersome.

Min, James B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Advanced Vibration Analysis Tools and New Strategies for Robust Design of Turbine Engine Rotors

Min, James B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optical Mass Gauging System for Measuring Liquid Levels in a Reduced Gravity Environment

A compact and rugged fiber-coupled liquid volume sensor designed for flight on a sounding rocket platform is presented. The sensor consists of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer capable of measuring the amount of liquid contained in a tank under any gravitational conditions, including a microgravity environment, by detecting small changes in the index of refraction of the gas contained within a sensing region. By monitoring changes in the interference fringe pattern as the system undergoes a small compression provided by a piston, the ullage volume of a tank can be directly measured allowing for a determination of the liquid volume. To demonstrate the technique, data are acquired using two tanks containing different volumes of liquid, which are representative of the levels of liquid in a tank at different time periods during a mission. The two tanks are independently exposed to the measurement apparatus, allowing for a determination of the liquid level in each. In a controlled, laboratory test of the unit, the system demonstrated a capability of measuring a liquid level in an individual tank of 10.53 mL with a 2% error. The overall random uncertainty for the flight system is higher than that one test, at +/- 1.5 mL.

Sullenberger, Ryan M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Suomi-NPP VIIRS Solar Diffuser Stability Monitor Performance

When illuminated by the Sun, the onboard solar diffuser (SD) panel provides a known spectral radiance source to calibrate the reflective solar bands of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite on the Suomi-NPP satellite. The SD bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) degrades over time due to solar exposure, and this degradation is measured using the SD stability monitor (SDSM). The SDSM acts as a ratioing radiometer, comparing solar irradiance measurements off the SD panel to those from a direct Sun view. We discuss the design and operations of the SDSM, the SDSM data analysis, including improvements incorporated since launch, and present the results through 1000 days after launch. After 1000 days, the band-dependent H-factors, a quantity describing the relative degradation of the BRDF of the SD panel since launch, range from 0.716 at 412 nanometers to 0.989 at 926 nanometers. The random uncertainty of these H-factors is about 0.1 percent, which is confirmed by the similar standard deviation values computed from the residuals of quadratic exponential fits to the H-factor time trends. The SDSM detector gains have temperature sensitivity of up to about 0.36 percent per kelvin, but this does not affect the derived H-factors. An initial error in the solar vector caused a seasonal bias to the H-factors of up to 0.5 percent. The total exposure of the SD panel to UV light after 1000 orbits is equivalent to about 100 hours of direct sunlight illumination perpendicular to the SD panel surface.

Fulbright, Jon↗

NASA NTRS1996

Uncertainty and Intelligence in Computational Stochastic Mechanics

Classical structural reliability assessment techniques are based on precise and crisp (sharp) definitions of failure and non-failure (survival) of a structure in meeting a set of strength, function and serviceability criteria. These definitions are provided in the form of performance functions and limit state equations. Thus, the criteria provide a dichotomous definition of what real physical situations represent, in the form of abrupt change from structural survival to failure. However, based on observing the failure and survival of real structures according to the serviceability and strength criteria, the transition from a survival state to a failure state and from serviceability criteria to strength criteria are continuous and gradual rather than crisp and abrupt. That is, an entire spectrum of damage or failure levels (grades) is observed during the transition to total collapse. In the process, serviceability criteria are gradually violated with monotonically increasing level of violation, and progressively lead into the strength criteria violation. Classical structural reliability methods correctly and adequately include the ambiguity sources of uncertainty (physical randomness, statistical and modeling uncertainty) by varying amounts. However, they are unable to adequately incorporate the presence of a damage spectrum, and do not consider in their mathematical framework any sources of uncertainty of the vagueness type. Vagueness can be attributed to sources of fuzziness, unclearness, indistinctiveness, sharplessness and grayness; whereas ambiguity can be attributed to nonspecificity, one-to-many relations, variety, generality, diversity and divergence. Using the nomenclature of structural reliability, vagueness and ambiguity can be accounted for in the form of realistic delineation of structural damage based on subjective judgment of engineers. For situations that require decisions under uncertainty with cost/benefit objectives, the risk of failure should depend on the underlying level of damage and the uncertainties associated with its definition. A mathematical model for structural reliability assessment that includes both ambiguity and vagueness types of uncertainty was suggested to result in the likelihood of failure over a damage spectrum. The resulting structural reliability estimates properly represent the continuous transition from serviceability to strength limit states over the ultimate time exposure of the structure. In this section, a structural reliability assessment method based on a fuzzy definition of failure is suggested to meet these practical needs. A failure definition can be developed to indicate the relationship between failure level and structural response. In this fuzzy model, a subjective index is introduced to represent all levels of damage (or failure). This index can be interpreted as either a measure of failure level or a measure of a degree of belief in the occurrence of some performance condition (e.g., failure). The index allows expressing the transition state between complete survival and complete failure for some structural response based on subjective evaluation and judgment.

Ayyub, Bilal M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Detecting a periodic signal in the terrestrial cratering record

A time-series analysis of model periodic data, where the period and phase are known, has been performed in order to investigate whether a significant period can be detected consistently from a mix of random and periodic impacts. Special attention is given to the effect of age uncertainties and random ages in the detection of a periodic signal. An equivalent analysis is performed with observed data on crater ages and compared with the model data, and the effects of the temporal distribution of crater ages on the results from the time-series analysis are studied. Evidence for a consistent 30-m.y. period is found to be weak.

Grieve, Richard A. F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Envisioning the Future of International Earth Observations Collaboration: Area and Map Accuracy Estimation by Sampling

- Maps have errors, sometimes a lot of errors ⇒ obtaining information directly from map problematic; any use of the map will benefit from information about errors/uncertainty - IPCC: unbiasedness and uncertainty - By randomly drawing a sample from the study area, observing reference conditions at drawn locations, and constructing estimators – easily estimate areas and map accuracy ± uncertainty - Sampling design and analysis, relatively easy – collecting reference observations is not. Cloud-based solutions, e.g. AREA2, Collect Earth Online, facilitate the collection of reference observations - More research and guidance needed!

Pontus Olofsson↗

NASA NTRS2001

Uncertainty Optimization Applied to the Monte Carlo Analysis of Planetary Entry Trajectories

Recently, strong evidence of liquid water under the surface of Mars and a meteorite that might contain ancient microbes have renewed interest in Mars exploration. With this renewed interest, NASA plans to send spacecraft to Mars approx. every 26 months. These future spacecraft will return higher-resolution images, make precision landings, engage in longer-ranging surface maneuvers, and even return Martian soil and rock samples to Earth. Future robotic missions and any human missions to Mars will require precise entries to ensure safe landings near science objective and pre-employed assets. Potential sources of water and other interesting geographic features are often located near hazards, such as within craters or along canyon walls. In order for more accurate landings to be made, spacecraft entering the Martian atmosphere need to use lift to actively control the entry. This active guidance results in much smaller landing footprints. Planning for these missions will depend heavily on Monte Carlo analysis. Monte Carlo trajectory simulations have been used with a high degree of success in recent planetary exploration missions. These analyses ascertain the impact of off-nominal conditions during a flight and account for uncertainty. Uncertainties generally stem from limitations in manufacturing tolerances, measurement capabilities, analysis accuracies, and environmental unknowns. Thousands of off-nominal trajectories are simulated by randomly dispersing uncertainty variables and collecting statistics on forecast variables. The dependability of Monte Carlo forecasts, however, is limited by the accuracy and completeness of the assumed uncertainties. This is because Monte Carlo analysis is a forward driven problem; beginning with the input uncertainties and proceeding to the forecasts outputs. It lacks a mechanism to affect or alter the uncertainties based on the forecast results. If the results are unacceptable, the current practice is to use an iterative, trial-and-error approach to reconcile discrepancies. Therefore, an improvement to the Monte Carlo analysis is needed that will allow the problem to be worked in reverse. In this way, the largest allowable dispersions that achieve the required mission objectives can be determined quantitatively.

Olds, John↗

NASA NTRS1997

Doppler Global Velocimeter Development for the Large Wind Tunnels at Ames Research Center

Development of an optical, laser-based flow-field measurement technique for large wind tunnels is described. The technique uses laser sheet illumination and charged coupled device detectors to rapidly measure flow-field velocity distributions over large planar regions of the flow. Sample measurements are presented that illustrate the capability of the technique. An analysis of measurement uncertainty, which focuses on the random component of uncertainty, shows that precision uncertainty is not dependent on the measured velocity magnitude. For a single-image measurement, the analysis predicts a precision uncertainty of +/-5 m/s. When multiple images are averaged, this uncertainty is shown to decrease. For an average of 100 images, for example, the analysis shows that a precision uncertainty of +/-0.5 m/s can be expected. Sample applications show that vectors aligned with an orthogonal coordinate system are difficult to measure directly. An algebraic transformation is presented which converts measured vectors to the desired orthogonal components. Uncertainty propagation is then used to show how the uncertainty propagates from the direct measurements to the orthogonal components. For a typical forward-scatter viewing geometry, the propagation analysis predicts precision uncertainties of +/-4, +/-7, and +/-6 m/s, respectively, for the U, V, and W components at 68% confidence.

Reinath, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 1

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean and the variance of the model's parameters, thus of the predicted output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, can be bounded tightly and rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for Select Space Propulsion System Components

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) are described for the probabilistic structural analysis of engine components for current and future space propulsion systems. Components for these systems are subjected to stochastic thermomechanical launch loads. Uncertainties or randomness also occurs in material properties, structural geometry, and boundary conditions. Material property stochasticity, such as in modulus of elasticity or yield strength, exists in every structure and is a consequence of variations in material composition and manufacturing processes. Procedures are outlined for computing the probabilistic structural response or reliability of the structural components. The response variables include static or dynamic deflections, strains, and stresses at one or several locations, natural frequencies, fatigue or creep life, etc. Sample cases illustrates how the PSAM methods and codes simulate input uncertainties and compute probabilistic response or reliability using a finite element model with probabilistic methods.

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