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Forecasting Rates of Volcanic Activity on Terrestrial Exoplanets

Similar to the planets and moons in our solar system, terrestrial exoplanets may be shaped by volcanism and tectonics. The magnitudes and rates of geological activity on terrestrial exoplanets will be intimately linked to their sizes and internal heating rates, and can either facilitate, or preclude, the existence of habitable environments. In order to place bounds on the potential for such activity, we estimate total internal heating rates for 52 exoplanets, with masses and radii up to ~ 8M(sub E) and 2R(sub E), respectively, assuming that internal heating is drawn from both radiogenic and tidal sources. We then compare these internal heating rates to those of the bodies in our solar system in an attempt to constrain the rates of volcanic activity on extrasolar worlds. We find that all of the exoplanets surveyed are likely to exhibit volcanic activity at their surfaces. We also find that at least 25% of the of the planets in our study may be extrasolar ocean worlds, the majority of which may contain internal oceans beneath layers of surface ice. These planets may be similar in structure to the icy moons of the giant planets and may have persistent cryovolcanic activity at their surfaces. Volcanic activity on exoplanets could be detected by next-generation space telescopes in transit spectra. In the case of planets with densities and/or effective temperatures that are consistent with H2O-rich compositions, spectral identification of excess water vapor and other molecules that are explosively vented into space during cryovolcanic eruptions could serve as a way to infer the presence of subsurface oceans, and therefore indirectly assess their habitability. Considering the implications for habitability, our results suggest that characterizing Earth-like exoplanets in terms of the potential for geological activity at their surfaces should be a priority in the coming years.

Lynnae C Quick

Recurrence Rate and Magma Effusion Rate for the Latest Volcanism on Arsia Mons, Mars

Magmatism and volcanism have evolved the Martian lithosphere, surface, and climate throughout the history of Mars. Constraining the rates of magma generation and timing of volcanism on the surface clarifies the ways in which magma and volcanic activity have shaped these Martian systems. The ages of lava flows on other planets are often estimated using impact crater counts, assuming that the number and size-distribution of impact craters per unit area reflect the time the lava flow has been on the surface and exposed to potential impacts. Here we show that impact crater age model uncertainty is reduced by adding stratigraphic information observed at locations where neighboring lavas abut each other, and demonstrate the significance of this reduction in age uncertainty for understanding the history of a volcanic field comprising 29 vents in the 110-kilometer-diameter caldera of Arsia Mons, Mars. Each vent within this caldera produced lava flows several to tens of kilometers in length; these vents are likely among the youngest on Mars, since no impact craters in their lava flows are larger than 1 kilometer in diameter. First, we modeled the age of each vent with impact crater counts performed on their corresponding lava flows and found very large age uncertainties for the ages of individual vents, often spanning the estimated age for the entire volcanic field. The age model derived from impact crater counts alone is broad and unimodal, with estimated peak activity in the field around 130Ma (megaannum, 1 million years). Next we applied our volcano event age model (VEAM), which uses a directed graph of stratigraphic relationships and random sampling of the impact crater age determinations to create alternative age models. Monte Carlo simulation was used to create 10,000 possible vent age sets. The recurrence rate of volcanism is calculated for each possible age set, and these rates are combined to calculate the median recurrence rate of all simulations. Applying this approach to the 29 volcanic vents, volcanism likely began around 200-300Ma then first peaked around 150Ma, with an average production rate of 0.4 vents per Myr (million years). The recurrence rate estimated including stratigraphic data is distinctly bimodal, with a second, lower peak in activity around 100Ma. Volcanism then waned until the final vents were produced 10-90Ma. Based on this model, volume flux is also bimodal, reached a peak rate of 1-8 cubic kilometers per million years by 150Ma and remained above half this rate until about 90Ma, after which the volume flux diminished greatly. The onset of effusive volcanism from 200-150Ma might be due to a transition of volcanic style away from explosive volcanism that emplaced tephra on the western flank of Arsia Mons, while the waning of volcanism after the 150Ma peak might represent a larger-scale diminishing of volcanic activity at Arsia Mons related to the emplacement of flank apron lavas.

Richardson, Jacob A.

Singular perturbation analysis of AOTV-related trajectory optimization problems

The problem of real time guidance and optimal control of Aeroassisted Orbit Transfer Vehicles (AOTV's) was addressed using singular perturbation theory as an underlying method of analysis. Trajectories were optimized with the objective of minimum energy expenditure in the atmospheric phase of the maneuver. Two major problem areas were addressed: optimal reentry, and synergetic plane change with aeroglide. For the reentry problem, several reduced order models were analyzed with the objective of optimal changes in heading with minimum energy loss. It was demonstrated that a further model order reduction to a single state model is possible through the application of singular perturbation theory. The optimal solution for the reduced problem defines an optimal altitude profile dependent on the current energy level of the vehicle. A separate boundary layer analysis is used to account for altitude and flight path angle dynamics, and to obtain lift and bank angle control solutions. By considering alternative approximations to solve the boundary layer problem, three guidance laws were derived, each having an analytic feedback form. The guidance laws were evaluated using a Maneuvering Reentry Research Vehicle model and all three laws were found to be near optimal. For the problem of synergetic plane change with aeroglide, a difficult terminal boundary layer control problem arises which to date is found to be analytically intractable. Thus a predictive/corrective solution was developed to satisfy the terminal constraints on altitude and flight path angle. A composite guidance solution was obtained by combining the optimal reentry solution with the predictive/corrective guidance method. Numerical comparisons with the corresponding optimal trajectory solutions show that the resulting performance is very close to optimal. An attempt was made to obtain numerically optimized trajectories for the case where heating rate is constrained. A first order state variable inequality constraint was imposed on the full order AOTV point mass equations of motion, using a simple aerodynamic heating rate model.

Calise, Anthony J.

Gamma ray constraints on the Galactic supernova rate

Most Galactic optical supernovae are hidden due to severe extinction in the disk, but could be detectable through their gamma-ray afterglow. Ti-44 is among the potentially detectable isotopes in supernova ejecta. HEAO 3 and SMM sky surveys have not detected gamma-ray lines from the decay of Ti-44, thus constraining SN rates and nucleosynthesis. We perform Monte Carlo simulations of the gamma-ray signatures of SN occurring during the last millenium to interpret the gamma-ray paucity.

Hartmann, D.

Effects of joint rate and displacement constraints on stability regions

A block diagram showing plant dynamics in normal mode coordinates, a linear feedback controller with command limits, and actuator dynamics with rate and displacement limits is given. The objective is to examine the effects of joint rate and displacement saturation limits on the stability regions. An unstable short period dynamic model is transformed into normal mode coordinates and is augmented with actuator dynamics. A linear feedback controller is used to provide closed-loop stability. The stability with constrained actuator rate limits under varying bandwidth, displacement and command limits is examined.

Shrivastava, P. C.

Io - A volcanic flow model for the hot spot emission spectrum and a thermostatic mechanism

The hot spots of Io are modeled as a steady state of active areas at 600 K, continuing creation of new lava flows and calderas, cooling off of recent flows and calderas, and the cessation of radiation of old flows and calderas from the accumulation of insulation added by resurfacing. There are three adjustable parameters in this model: the area of active sources at 600 K, the rate of production of new area that is cooling, and the temperature of cessation of emission as the result of resurfacing. The resurfacing rate sets constrains on this last parameter. The emission spectrum computed with reasonable values for these parameters is an excellent match to the spectrum from recent observations. A thermostatic mechanism is described whereby the volcanic activity is turned on for a long period of time and is then turned off for a nearly equal period. As a result the presently observed internal heat flow of approximately 1.5 W/sq m may be as much as twice the rate of production of internal heat. Thus the restrictions placed on theories of tidal dissipation by the observed heat flow may be partially relieved.

Sinton, V. M.

Noiseless coding for the Gamma Ray spectrometer

The payload of several future unmanned space missions will include a sophisticated gamma ray spectrometer. Severely constrained data rates during certain portions of these missions could limit the possible science return from this instrument. This report investigates the application of universal noiseless coding techniques to represent gamma ray spectrometer data more efficiently without any loss in data integrity. Performance results demonstrate compression factors from 2.5:1 to 20:1 in comparison to a standard representation. Feasibility was also demonstrated by implementing a microprocessor breadboard coder/decoder using an Intel 8086 processor.

Rice, R.

Noiseless coding for the magnetometer

Future unmanned space missions will continue to seek a full understanding of magnetic fields throughout the solar system. Severely constrained data rates during certain portions of these missions could limit the possible science return. This publication investigates the application of universal noiseless coding techniques to more efficiently represent magnetometer data without any loss in data integrity. Performance results indicated that compression factors of 2:1 to 6:1 can be expected. Feasibility for general deep space application was demonstrated by implementing a microprocessor breadboard coder/decoder using the Intel 8086 processor. The Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby mission will incorporate these techniques in a buffer feedback, rate-controlled configuration. The characteristics of this system are discussed.

Rice, Robert F.

Outflows driven by cosmic-ray pressure in broad absorption line QSOs

It is shown how the escape of ultrarelativistic neutrons from the central engine of an AGN can lead to the production of a strong fast wind with most of the acceleration occurring outside the broad emission line region. This feature is required in order to explain observations of broad absorption line (BAL) QSOs, in which the blue wings of the broad emission lines are often absorbed. The dynamical and thermal structure of the wind is determined, and the formation of BALs in such an outflow is modeled, deriving line profiles and constraining the rate at which the energy or relativistic protons has be be converted to thermal energy in order to provide pressure confinement for the BAL clouds. The problem of acceleration and survival of the clouds is discussed.

Begelman, Mitchell

Investigation of spreading center ecolution by joint inversion of seafloor magnetic anomaly and tectonic fabric data

Spreading center segments that have experienced a complex tectonic history including rift propagation may have a complicated signature in bathymetric and magnetic anomaly data. To gain insight into the history of such regions, we have developed techniques in which both the magnetic anomaly patterns and seafloor fabric trends are predicted theoretically, and the combined predictions are compared numerically with the data to estimate best fitting parameters for the propagation history. Fitting functions are constructed to help determine which model best matches the digitized fabric and magnetic anomaly data. Such functions offer statistical criteria for choosing the best fit model. We use this approach to resolve the propagation history of the Cobb Offset along the Juan de Fuca ridge. In this example, the magnetic anomaly data prove more useful in defining the geometry of the propagation events, while the fabric, with its greater temporal resolution, is more useful for constraining the rate of propagation. It thus appears that joint inversion of magnetic and seafloor fabric data can be valuable in tectonic analyses.

Shoberg, Tom

Craters as an Indicator of Martian Regolith Thickness

Two craters (D approx.900 m) found in MOC images of Xanthe Terra have concentric terraced morphologies, where one crater lies within a second, larger crater. This type of morphology has been documented on the Moon and attributed to an impact into fragmental material overlying a more competent substrate. These craters offer a mechanism by which to estimate thickness of unconsolidated surface material over large areas on Mars. Such measurements may constrain deflation rates and volume estimates of hydrologic reservoirs on Mars and yield information on the strength of the local bedrock. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Gilmore, M. S.

Eruption Constraints for a Young Channelized Lava Flow, Marte Vallis, Mars

This study constrains flow rates for a specific channelized lava flow in Marte Vallis, Mars. We measured slope-gradient, channel width, and channel depth. Our results are similar to other recent studies which suggests similarities to long, terrestrial basaltic flow. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Therkelsen, J. P.

BLAST: The Balloon-Borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope

BLAST is the Balloon-borne Large-Aperture Sub-millimeter Telescope. It will fly from a Long Duration Balloon (LDB) platform from Antarctica. The telescope design incorporates a 2 m primary mirror with large-format bolometer arrays operating at 250, 350 and 500 microns. By providing the first sensitive large-area (10 sq. deg.) sub-mm surveys at these wavelengths, BLAST will address some of the most important galactic and cosmological questions regarding the formation and evolution of stars, galaxies and clusters. Galactic and extragalactic BLAST surveys will: (1) identify large numbers of high-redshift galaxies; (2) measure photometric redshifts, rest-frame FIR luminosities and star formation rates thereby constraining the evolutionary history of the galaxies that produce the FIR and sub-mm background; (3) measure cold pre-stellar sources associated with the earliest stages of star and planet formation; (4) make high-resolution maps of diffuse galactic emission over a wide range of galactic latitudes. In addition to achieving the above scientific goals, the exciting legacy of the BLAST LDB experiment will be a catalogue of 3000-5000 extragalactic sub-mm sources and a 100 sq. deg. sub-mm galactic plane survey. Multi-frequency follow-up observations from SIRTF, ASTRO-F, and Herschel, together with spectroscopic observations and sub-arcsecond imaging from ALMA are essential to understand the physical nature of the BLAST sources.

Devlin, Mark

Autonomous and Autonomic Systems: A Paradigm for Future Space Exploration Missions

NASA increasingly will rely on autonomous systems concepts, not only in the mission control centers on the ground, but also on spacecraft and on rovers and other assets on extraterrestrial bodies. Automomy enables not only reduced operations costs, But also adaptable goal-driven functionality of mission systems. Space missions lacking autonomy will be unable to achieve the full range of advanced mission objectives, given that human control under dynamic environmental conditions will not be feasible due, in part, to the unavoidably high signal propagation latency and constrained data rates of mission communications links. While autonomy cost-effectively supports accomplishment of mission goals, autonomicity supports survivability of remote mission assets, especially when human tending is not feasible. Autonomic system properties (which ensure self-configuring, self-optimizing self-healing, and self-protecting behavior) conceptually may enable space missions of a higher order into any previously flown. Analysis of two NASA agent-based systems previously prototyped, and of a proposed future mission involving numerous cooperating spacecraft, illustrates how autonomous and autonomic system concepts may be brought to bear on future space missions.

Truszkowski, Walter F.

Cosmic Infrared Background and Early Galaxy Evolution

The cosmic infrared background (CIB) reflects the sum total of galactic luminosities integrated over the entire age of the universe. From its measurement the red-shifted starlight and dust-absorbed and re-radiated starlight of the CIB can be used to determine (or constrain) the rates of star formation and metal production as a function of time and deduce information about objects at epochs currently inaccessible to telescopic studies. This review discusses the state of current CIB measurements and the (mostly space-based) instruments with which these measurements have been made, the obstacles (the various foreground emissions) and the physics behind the CIB and its structure. Theoretical discussion of the CIB levels can now be normalized to the standard cosmological model narrowing down theoretical uncertainties. We review the information behind and theoretical modeling of both the mean (isotropic) levels of the CIB and their fluctuations. The CIB is divided into three broad bands: near-IR (NIR), mid-IR (MIR) and far-IR (FIR). For each of the bands we review the main contributors to the CIB flux and the epochs at which the bulk of the flux originates. We also discuss the data on the various quantities relevant for correct interpretation of the CIB levels: the star-formation history, the present-day luminosity function measurements, resolving the various galaxy contributors to the CIB, etc. The integrated light of all galaxies in the deepest NIR galaxy counts to date fails to match the observed mean level of the CIB, probably indicating a significant high-redshift contribution to the CIB. Additionally, Population III stars should have left a strong and measurable signature via their contribution to the CIB anisotropies for a wide range of their formation scenarios, and measuring the excess CIB anisotropies coming from high z would provide direct information on the epoch of the first stars.

Kashlinsky, Alexander

Surface Exposure Ages of Space-Weathered Grains from Asteroid 25143 Itokawa

We use the observed effects of solar wind ion irradiation and the accumulation of solar flare particle tracks recorded in Itokawa grains to constrain the rates of space weathering and yield information about regolith dynamics. The track densities are consistent with exposure at mm depths for 104-105 years. The solar wind damaged rims form on a much faster timescale, <10(exp 3) years.

Keller, L. P.

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850‐2014) with GISS‐E2.1

Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850‐‐2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2), but warm less during recent decades due to reduced total forcing. This forcing reduction is attributed to an increase in longwave opacity in pre‐industrial simulations, resulting in an atmosphere less sensitive to further increases in opacity that result from rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This demonstrates the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Ea