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Flight Trajectory Prediction Based on Hybrid-Recurrent Networks

The development of future technologies for the National Airspace System (NAS) will be reliant on a new communications infrastructure capable of managing the limited available spectrum for communications among aircraft and ground systems. Emerging approaches to autonomous allocation of aviation spectrum mostlyrely on machine learning techniques, where 4D (longitude, latitude, altitude, time) trajectory prediction is an important data input to enable real-time resource allocation. This study explores and evaluates effective data sources and deep recurrent neural network techniques when determining flight trajectories. Specifically, data are collected and evaluated in a 100-day and 14-day period. Sources of data include NASA Sherlock Data Warehouse, MIT Lincoln Labs Corridor Integrated Weather Service (CIWS), and assorted NOAA weather datasets. Deep learning models for 4D predictions all utilize a hybrid-recurrent technique. A baseline model is considered via the convolutional-LSTM design from the existing literature. The modified design considers Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Independently Recurrent Neural Networks (IndRNN), and stand-alone self-attention layers. Results indicatethe effectiveness of LSTM and GRUcells for state-of-the-art data processing (interpolation). Additionally, GRUs may be quickly trained with limited data, allowing for exacting improvements with optimizer selection. Attention mechanisms provide notable performance improvements to convolutional layers and may extend dimensional capabilities of a learning model. Finally, NOAA measurements provide only a supplemental value, requiring support from tailored measurements for Air Traffic Management.

Nathan Schimpf↗

DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Forecasting of Thermostatic and Residential Loads Using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks

Internet of Things (IoT) devices in smart grids enable intelligent energy management for grid managers and personalized energy services for consumers. Investigating a smart grid with IoT devices requires a simulation framework with IoT devices modeling. However, there lack comprehensive study on the modeling of IoT devices in smart grids. This paper investigates the IoT device modeling of a thermostatic load and implements the recurrent neural networks model for short-term load forecasting in this IoT-based thermostatic load. The recurrent neural network structure is leveraged to build a load forecasting model on temporal correlation. The temporal recurrent neural network layers including long short-term memory cells are employed to learn the data from both the simulation platform and New South Wales residential datasets. The simulation results are provided for demonstration.

electric load forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2022

Process prediction and detection of faults using probabilistic bidirectional recurrent neural networks on real plant data

Attaining Industry 4.0 for manufacturing operations requires advanced monitoring systems and real-time data analytics of plant data, among other topics. We propose a Probabilistic Bidirectional Recurrent Network (PBRN) for industrial process monitoring for the early detection of faults. The model is based on a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network that allows the model to retain long-term dependencies between sensor data along a time horizon, hence learning the dynamic behavior of the process. To reduce the false-positive detection rate of the model, we compel the model to learn from a highly noisy sensor reading while outputting noise-free sensor outputs. The performance of the proposed model is compared to other data-driven statistical process monitoring schemes using real plant data from an industrial Air Separations Unit (ASU) containing noisy sensor readings. We show that the model can learn from noisy data without reducing its performance. Using two different fault cases, we demonstrate the model’s ability to carry out early fault detection with average false-positive rates of 2.9% and 4.9% for both fault cases. The missed detection rates are 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Response of soil nutrient pools and microbiomes to recurrent wildfire disturbance and varying burn severities in a mixed conifer forest

Wildfire is a pervasive disturbance in mixed-conifer forests, yet the relative influence of fire recurrence versus burn severity on soil biogeochemistry and microbial communities remains poorly quantified. We examined a natural gradient of fire history (0–3 prior fires) and burn severity (low–high) spanning 50 yr in a mixed-conifer ecosystem to assess how repeated fire shapes soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools, their isotopic signatures, mineral and particulate fractions, microbial community composition, carbon-use, CO₂ fluxes, and vegetation cover. Successive fires produced progressively higher bare-ground percentages and lower tree cover, which were tightly linked to declines in microbial diversity and reductions bulk %C, and %N. δ 13 C increased with fire frequency, indicating preferential loss of labile C through combustion or enhanced microbial oxidation, thereby explaining the observed net soil-C decline. Conversely, δ 15 N decreased and pH increased as tree density declined, reflecting altered N cycling and reduced acidification in post-fire soils. Fire recurrence, more than severity, corresponded with a marked shift in the bacterial community: for example, Xanthobacteraceae—key N-fixers and C-cyclers—diminished, while N-fixing Bacillaceae increased, underscoring the tightly coupled nature of soil nutrient dynamics and microbiome composition after repeated burns. Our results demonstrate that fire recurrence appears to be a stronger driver of post-fire soil ecosystem responses in this mixed-conifer forest, influencing both abiotic nutrient pools and the functional potential of the soil microbiome. These findings provide a more enhanced assessment and understanding to date of the biogeochemical consequences of repeated wildfire disturbance that can be used to inform management strategies aimed at preserving soil health in fire-prone landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Downregulation of fascin in the first trimester placental villi is associated with early recurrent miscarriage

Highlights: • Fascin is downregulated in the placentae of pregnancies complicated by early recurrent miscarriage. • Knockdown of fascin decreased HTR-8/SVneo cells' proliferation, migration and invasion. • Fascin knockdown decreased phosphorylated ERK1/2 and phosphorylated STAT3 protein level in HTR-8/SVneo cells. • Hypoxia reoxygenation decreased fascin, N-Cadherin and Vimentin protein levels to affect HTR-8/SVneo cells' invasion. Inadequate trophoblast proliferation, shallow invasion and exaggerated rate of trophoblast apoptosis are implicated in early recurrent miscarriage (ERM). However, the mechanistic bases of this association have not been fully established. We aimed at investigating the involvement of fascin, an actin-bundling protein, in trophoblast activities and ERM. We found that fascin was downregulated in the cytotrophoblasts (CTBs) and distal cytotrophoblasts (DCTs) of ERM placentae. Knockdown of fascin altered cellular and nucleolar morphology, and inhibited the proliferation but increased apoptosis of trophoblastic HTR8/SVneo cells. Furthermore, fascin knockdown decreased the expression of transcription factors such as Snail1/2, Twist and Zeb1/2, mesenchymal molecules such as Vimentin and N-cadherin, and the protein expression of phosphorylated extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2) and phosphorylates signal transducer and activator of transcript 3 (STAT3). Exposure of HTR-8/SVneo cells to hypoxia reoxygenation (H/R) decreased fascin expression to affect the cells’ invasion. Our results indicate for the first time that the downregulation of fascin is involved in the pathogenesis of early recurrent miscarriage; and hence a potential therapeutic target against the disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Source-agnostic gravitational-wave detection with recurrent autoencoders

Abstract We present an application of anomaly detection techniques based on deep recurrent autoencoders (AEs) to the problem of detecting gravitational wave (GW) signals in laser interferometers. Trained on noise data, this class of algorithms could detect signals using an unsupervised strategy, i.e. without targeting a specific kind of source. We develop a custom architecture to analyze the data from two interferometers. We compare the obtained performance to that obtained with other AE architectures and with a convolutional classifier. The unsupervised nature of the proposed strategy comes with a cost in terms of accuracy, when compared to more traditional supervised techniques. On the other hand, there is a qualitative gain in generalizing the experimental sensitivity beyond the ensemble of pre-computed signal templates. The recurrent AE outperforms other AEs based on different architectures. The class of recurrent AEs presented in this paper could complement the search strategy employed for GW detection and extend the discovery reach of the ongoing detection campaigns.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Recurrent convolutional neural networks for modeling nonadiabatic dynamics of quantum-classical systems

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have recently been extensively applied to model the time evolution in fluid dynamics, weather predictions, and even chaotic systems due to their ability to capture temporal dependencies and sequential patterns in data. Here we present an RNN model based on convolutional neural networks for modeling the nonlinear nonadiabatic dynamics of hybrid quantum-classical systems. The dynamical evolution of the hybrid systems is governed by equations of motion for classical degrees of freedom and von Neumann equation for electrons. The Physics-Aware Recurrent Convolution (PARC) neural network structure incorporates a differentiator-integrator architecture that inductively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of generic physical systems. Here, we apply our RNN approach to learn the space-time evolution of a one-dimensional semiclassical Holstein model after an interaction quench. For shallow quenches (small changes in electron-lattice coupling), the deterministic dynamics can be accurately captured using a single-CNN-based recurrent network. In contrast, deep quenches induce chaotic evolution, making long-term trajectory prediction significantly more challenging. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that the PARC-CNN architecture can effectively learn the statistical climate of the Holstein model under deep-quench conditions.

Holstein model↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatial-Temporal Recurrent Graph Neural Networks for Fault Diagnostics in Power Distribution Systems

Fault diagnostics are extremely important to decide proper actions toward fault isolation and system restoration. The growing integration of inverter-based distributed energy resources imposes strong influences on fault detection using traditional overcurrent relays. This paper utilizes emerging graph learning techniques to build new temporal recurrent graph neural network models for fault diagnostics. The temporal recurrent graph neural network structures can extract the spatial-temporal features from data of voltage measurement units installed at the critical buses. From these features, fault event detection, fault type/phase classification, and fault location are performed. Compared with previous works, the proposed temporal recurrent graph neural networks provide a better generalization for fault diagnostics. Moreover, the proposed scheme retrieves the voltage signals instead of current signals so that there is no need to install relays at all lines of the distribution system. Therefore, the proposed scheme is generalizable and not limited by the number of relays installed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is comprehensively evaluated on the Potsdam microgrid and IEEE 123-node system in comparison with other neural network structures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Process Failure Detection via Recurrence Quantification Analysis in a Slot-Rectangular Spouted Bed

A study was conducted to explore the applicability of recurrence and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to the detection of process failures in spouted bed reactor systems. Here, three different potential failure modes were examined in a transparent, cold flow slot-rectangular spouted bed. These being, a simulated air leak from a side wall of the reactor, a simulated gas leak from the top wall of the reactor, and simulated agglomeration of solids via introduction of larger “klinker” particles. Bed pressure drop time history data were collected and analyzed via generation of recurrence plots (RPs) and RQA parameters. In general, the simulated agglomeration case was quite easily detected via ever RQA Parameter examined, whereas the simulated air leaks were detected by only a single RQA parameter.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

Power outages cause significant economic and societal impacts. An increasing likelihood of extreme weather coupled with aging grid infrastructure is leading to a higher prevalence of extended power outages, which can leave customers without power for multiple days or even weeks. Planners at the facility, local, state, and federal levels are interested in resilience solutions to reduce the impacts of extended power outages. Resilience solutions—such as installing backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, and hardening distribution and transmission components—can reduce the consequences of extended power outages, but these solutions come with increased capital costs. Conducting cost-benefit analyses is important for determining which steps to take to mitigate the impact of power outages without investing in ineffective and cost-prohibitive resilience solutions. The expected benefits of resilience investments depend on the frequency of power outages of various durations, particularly extended outages lasting several hours, days, or weeks. A significant barrier to resilience planning is the lack of publicly available data on the frequency and duration of extended power outages. The absence of outage duration information severely limits the ability to conduct quantitative cost-benefit analyses of resilience investments. This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies. We developed a methodology to estimate customer outage durations for extended outage events using publicly available data on customer outages. Shorter-duration power outages are relatively common, with customers experiencing on average more than one power outage each year lasting fewer than 12 hours. An outage event lasting between 1 day and 1 week is expected to occur between once every 16 years and once every 42 years, depending on the region, with an average recurrence rate of once every 32 years across the contiguous United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1972

The recurrent nature of type 1 noise active regions during 1965 through 1969

The recurrent tendency of type I noise sources in metric frequencies is studied during the period from 1965 to 1969. It is shown that their recurrent period is slightly longer than 27.0 days and that the number of such recurrent trends for those noise sources is generally four. Discussion is given on the close relationship between those sources and the active regions where proton flares occur.

Sakurai, K.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Symbolic computation of recurrence equations for the Chebyshev series solution of linear ODE's

If a linear ordinary differential equation with polynomial coefficients is converted into integrated form then the formal substitution of a Chebyshev series leads to recurrence equations defining the Chebyshev coefficients of the solution function. An explicit formula is presented for the polynomial coefficients of the integrated form in terms of the polynomial coefficients of the differential form. The symmetries arising from multiplication and integration of Chebyshev polynomials are exploited in deriving a general recurrence equation from which can be derived all of the linear equations defining the Chebyshev coefficients. Procedures for deriving the general recurrence equation are specified in a precise algorithmic notation suitable for translation into any of the languages for symbolic computation. The method is algebraic and it can therefore be applied to differential equations containing indeterminates.

Geddes, K. O.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Gamma-ray burster recurrence time scales

In the decade since gamma-ray bursters (GRBs) were discovered by Klebesadel et al. (1973), many models have been proposed to explain the GRB phenomenon. A difficulty is related to the small number of predictions which would make it possible to evaluate the models. One verifiable prediction is the recurrence time scale, tau-gamma. One method to measure tau-gamma is to look for possible cases of recurrence as indicated by overlapping error boxes. The analysis considered in the present investigation is composed of three procedures. One of these involves a search through known error regions for cases where the error regions overlap. In addition, the number of overlaps expected by chance coincidence alone has been determined, and a calculation has been performed regarding the number of overlaps which are expected due to recurrence for various assumed tau-gamma and luminosity functions.

Schaefer, B. E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

The Nazca-South American convergence rate and the recurrence of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake

The seismic slip rate along the Chile Trench estimated from the slip in the great 1960 earthquake and the recurrence history of major earthquakes has been interpreted as consistent with the subduction rate of the Nazca plate beneath South America. The convergence rate, estimated from global relative plate motion models, depends significantly on closure of the Nazca - Antarctica - South America circuit. NUVEL-1, a new plate motion model which incorporates recently determined spreading rates on the Chile Rise, shows that the average convergence rate over the last three million years is slower than previously estimated. If this time-averaged convergence rate provides an appropriate upper bound for the seismic slip rate, either the characteristic Chilean subduction earthquake is smaller than the 1960 event, the average recurrence interval is greater than observed in the last 400 years, or both. These observations bear out the nonuniformity of plate motions on various time scales, the variability in characteristic subduction zone earthquake size, and the limitations of recurrence time estimates.

Stein, S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Observations and simulations of recurrent novae: U Sco and V394 CrA

Observations and analysis of the Aug. 1987 outburst of the recurrent nova V394 CrA are presented. This nova is extremely fast and its outburst characteristics closely resemble those of the recurrent nova U Sco. Hydrodynamic simulations of the outbursts of recurrent novae were performed. Results as applied to the outbursts of V394 CrA and U Sco are summarized.

Starrfield, S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Coalescence of recurrent streams of different sizes and amplitudes

Two corotating streams per solar rotation, separated by the heliospheric plasma sheet, were observed at 1 AU during 1974, and the streams recurred four times during the interval from day 145 to day 255. A single compound stream per solar rotation was observed at 5.5 - 6.0 AU during the corresponding interval from day 165 to day 275, indicating that the two recurrent streams observed at 1 AU coalesced between 1 AU and 6 AU. The average maximum speed of one of the recurrent streams was 805 km/s while that of the other recurrent stream was 705 km/s. The compound stream was not formed by the overtaking of the slow stream by the fast stream. Rather, it was probably formed by a process involving both filtering (due to the fact that the slow stream was 50 percent wider than the fast stream) and a geometrical effect.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Parameter estimation in space systems using recurrent neural networks

The identification of time-varying parameters encountered in space systems is addressed, using artificial neural systems. A hybrid feedforward/feedback neural network, namely a recurrent multilayer perception, is used as the model structure in the nonlinear system identification. The feedforward portion of the network architecture provides its well-known interpolation property, while through recurrency and cross-talk, the local information feedback enables representation of temporal variations in the system nonlinearities. The standard back-propagation-learning algorithm is modified and it is used for both the off-line and on-line supervised training of the proposed hybrid network. The performance of recurrent multilayer perceptron networks in identifying parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems is investigated by estimating the mass properties of a representative large spacecraft. The changes in the spacecraft inertia are predicted using a trained neural network, during two configurations corresponding to the early and late stages of the spacecraft on-orbit assembly sequence. The proposed on-line mass properties estimation capability offers encouraging results, though, further research is warranted for training and testing the predictive capabilities of these networks beyond nominal spacecraft operations.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Core reactivity estimation in space reactors using recurrent dynamic networks

A recurrent multilayer perceptron network topology is used in the identification of nonlinear dynamic systems from only the input/output measurements. The identification is performed in the discrete time domain, with the learning algorithm being a modified form of the back propagation (BP) rule. The recurrent dynamic network (RDN) developed is applied for the total core reactivity prediction of a spacecraft reactor from only neutronic power level measurements. Results indicate that the RDN can reproduce the nonlinear response of the reactor while keeping the number of nodes roughly equal to the relative order of the system. As accuracy requirements are increased, the number of required nodes also increases, however, the order of the RDN necessary to obtain such results is still in the same order of magnitude as the order of the mathematical model of the system. It is believed that use of the recurrent MLP structure with a variety of different learning algorithms may prove useful in utilizing artificial neural networks for recognition, classification, and prediction of dynamic systems.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗