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Results for “Regional surrogate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

MRT 7365 Power flow physics and key physics phenomena: EMPIRE verification suite

This milestone work baselines electromagnetic particle-in-cell capability of the EMPIRE plasma simulation code to model key processes germane to the physics of electrode plasmas arising in magnetically-insulated transmission lines operating at or near 20 MA. This evaluation is done so through the provision of benchmark verification problems designed to exercise the individual and combined physics models on a small-scale surrogate geometry for the final-feed-to-load region of the Z accelerator under representative operating conditions. In this report, we overview our test designs, and present a portfolio of simulation results along with performance assessments which altogether establish state-of-the-art. In particular, two main verification categories are covered this report: (1) Z-relevant desorption physics (Temkin isotherm), and (2) two approaches to simulate electrode plasma creation and dynamics (automatic creation versus self-consistent creation through direct simulation Monte Carlo collisions).

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel machine learning-based optimization algorithm (ActivO) for accelerating simulation-driven engine design

A novel design optimization approach (ActivO) that employs an ensemble of machine learning algorithms is presented. The proposed approach is a surrogate-based scheme, where the predictions of a weak leaner and a strong learner are utilized within an active learning loop. The weak learner is used to identify promising regions within the design space to explore, while the strong learner is used to determine the exact location of the optimum within promising regions. For each design iteration, exploration is done by randomly selecting evaluation points within regions where the weak learner-predicted fitness is high. The global optimum obtained by using the strong learner as a surrogate is also evaluated to enable rapid convergence once the most promising region has been identified. First, the performance of ActivO was compared against five other optimizers on a cosine mixture function with 25 local optima and one global optimum. In the second problem, the objective was to minimize indicated specific fuel consumption of a compression-ignition internal combustion (IC) engine while adhering to desired constraints associated with in-cylinder pressure and emissions. In this work, the efficacy of the proposed approach is compared to that of a genetic algorithm, which is widely used within the internal combustion engine community for engine optimization, showing that ActivO reduces the number of function evaluations needed to reach the global optimum, and thereby time-to-design by 80%. Furthermore, the optimization of engine design parameters leads to savings of around 1.9% in energy consumption, while maintaining operability and acceptable pollutant emissions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dispersion-enhanced sequential batch sampling for adaptive contour estimation

In computer simulation and optimal design, sequential batch sampling offers an appealing way to iteratively stipulate optimal sampling points based upon existing selections and efficiently construct surrogate modeling. Nonetheless, the issue of near duplicates poses tremendous quandary for sequential learning. It refers to the situation that selected critical points cluster together in each sampling batch, which are individually but not collectively informative towards the optimal design. Near duplicates severely diminish the computational efficiency as they barely contribute extra information towards update of the surrogate. To address this issue, we impose a dispersion criterion on concurrent selection of sampling points, which essentially forces a sparse distribution of critical points in each batch, and demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in adaptive contour estimation. Specifically, we adopt Gaussian process surrogate to emulate the simulator, acquire variance reduction of the critical region from new sampling points as a dispersion criterion, and combine it with the modified expected improvement (EI) function for critical batch selection. The critical region here is the proximity of the contour of interest. This proposed approach is vindicated in numerical examples of a two-dimensional four-branch function, a four-dimensional function with a disjoint contour of interest and a time-delay dynamic system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autoregressive long-horizon prediction of plasma edge dynamics *

Accurate modeling of scrape-off layer (SOL) and divertor-edge dynamics is vital for designing plasma-facing components in fusion devices. High-fidelity edge fluid/neutral codes such as SOLPS-ITER capture SOL physics with high accuracy, but their computational cost limits broad parameter scans and long transient studies. We present transformer-based, autoregressive surrogates for efficient prediction of 2D, time-dependent plasma edge state fields. Trained on SOLPS-ITER spatiotemporal data for the KSTAR tokamak, the surrogates forecast electron temperature, electron density, and radiated power over extended horizons. We evaluate model variants trained with increasing autoregressive horizons (1–100 steps) on short- and long-horizon prediction tasks. Longer-horizon training systematically improves rollout stability and mitigates error accumulation, enabling stable predictions over hundreds to thousands of steps and reproducing key dynamical features such as the motion of high-radiation regions. Measured end-to-end wall-clock times show the surrogate is orders of magnitude faster than SOLPS-ITER, enabling rapid parameter exploration. Prediction accuracy degrades when the surrogate enters physical regimes not represented in the training dataset, motivating future work on data enrichment and physics-informed constraints. Overall, this approach provides a fast, accurate surrogate for computationally intensive plasma edge simulations, supporting rapid scenario exploration, control-oriented studies, and progress toward real-time applications in fusion devices.

autoregressive deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shadow masks predictions in SPARC tokamak plasma-facing components using HEAT code and machine learning methods

Here, this work uses machine learning (ML) to complement HEAT (Heat flux Engineering Analysis Toolkit) by developing 3-D footprint surrogate models for fast and accurate heat load calculations in the divertor of the SPARC tokamak. The focus is on shadowed regions, or magnetic shadows, caused by the 3-D geometry of plasma-facing components (PFCs). ML classifiers are employed to create a surrogate model for HEAT generated shadow masks, predicting these shadow masks and divertor heat flux profiles based on a diverse range of equilibria and only the plasma current, safety factor(q95) at the edge, and magnetic flux angles as input parameters. The ultimate goal is to integrate the model for real-time control and future operational decisions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints

Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

On Aerosol Liquid Water and Sulfate Associations: The Potential for Fine Particulate Matter Biases

In humid locations of the Eastern U.S., sulfate is a surrogate for aerosol liquid water (ALW), a poorly measured particle constituent. Regional and seasonal variation in ALW–sulfate relationships offers a potential explanation to reconcile epidemiology and toxicology studies regarding particulate sulfur and health endpoints. ALW facilitates transfer of polar species from the gas phase to the particle phase and affects particle pH and metal oxidation state. Though abundant and a potential indicator of adverse health endpoints, ALW is largely removed in most particulate matter measurement techniques, including in routine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) networks that use federal reference method (FRM) monitors, which are used in epidemiology studies. We find that in 2004, a typical year in the available record, ambient ALW mass is removed during sampling and filter equilibration to standard laboratory conditions at most (94%) sites, up to 85% of the ambient water mass. The removal of ALW can induce the evaporation of other semi-volatile compounds present in PM 2.5 , such as ammonium nitrate and numerous organics. This produces an artifact in the PM mass measurements that is, importantly, not uniform in space or time. This suggests that PM 2.5 epidemiology studies that exclude ALW are biased. This work provides a plausible explanation to resolve multi-decade discrepancies regarding ambient sulfate and health impacts in some epidemiological and toxicological studies

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Curiosity driven exploration to optimize structure–property learning in microscopy

Rapidly determining structure–property correlations in materials is an important challenge in better understanding fundamental mechanisms and greatly assists in materials design. In microscopy, imaging data provides a direct measurement of the local structure, while spectroscopic measurements provide relevant functional property information. Deep kernel active learning approaches have been utilized to rapidly map local structure to functional properties in microscopy experiments, but are computationally expensive for multi-dimensional and correlated output spaces. Here, we present an alternative lightweight curiosity algorithm which actively samples regions with unexplored structure–property relations, utilizing a deep-learning based surrogate model for error prediction. We show that the algorithm outperforms random sampling for predicting properties from structures, and provides a convenient tool for efficient mapping of structure–property relationships in materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effectively using multifidelity optimization for wind turbine design

Abstract. Wind turbines are complex multidisciplinary systems that are challenging to design because of the tightly coupled interactions between different subsystems. Computational modeling attempts to resolve these couplings so we can efficiently explore new wind turbine systems early in the design process. Low-fidelity models are computationally efficient but make assumptions and simplifications that limit the accuracy of design studies, whereas high-fidelity models capture more of the actual physics but with increased computational cost. This paper details the use of multifidelity methods for optimizing wind turbine designs by using information from both low- and high-fidelity models to find an optimal solution at reduced cost. Specifically, a trust-region approach is used with a novel corrective function built from a nonlinear surrogate model. We find that for a diverse set of design problems – with examples given in rotor blade geometry design, wind turbine controller design, and wind power plant layout optimization – the multifidelity method finds the optimal design using 38 %–58 % of the computational cost of the high-fidelity-only optimization. The success of the multifidelity method in disparate applications suggests that it could be more broadly applied to other wind energy or otherwise generic applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benders Decomposition Using Graph Modeling and Multi-Parametric Programming

Benders decomposition is a widely used method for solving large and structured optimization problems, but its performance is affected by the repeated solution of subproblems. We propose a flexible and modular algorithmic framework for accelerating Benders decomposition. Specifically, we express the problem structure by using a graph-theoretic modeling abstraction in which nodes represent optimization subproblems and edges represent connectivity between subproblems. A key innovation of our approach is that we embed multiparametric programming (mp) surrogates for node subproblems, which maps the exact analytical map of the subproblem solution space. The use of mp surrogates allows us to replace subproblem solves with fast look-ups and function evaluations for primal and dual variables during the iterative Benders process. We formally show the equivalence between classical Benders cuts and those derived from the mp solution. We implement our framework in the open-source PlasmoBenders.jl software package. To demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework, we apply it to a two-stage stochastic programming problem, which aims to make optimal capacity expansion decisions under market uncertainty. We evaluate both single-cut and multicut variants of Benders decomposition and show that the use of mp surrogates achieves substantial speedups in subproblem solve time, while preserving the convergence guarantees of Benders decomposition. We highlight advantages in solution analysis and interpretability that is enabled by mp critical region tracking; specifically, we show that these reveal how decisions evolve geometrically across the Benders search. Our results aim to demonstrate that combining surrogate modeling with graph modeling offers a promising and extensible foundation for structure-exploiting decomposition. In addition, by decomposing the problem into more tractable subproblems, the proposed approach also aims to overcome scalability issues of mp. Finally, the use of mp surrogates provides a unifying and modular optimization framework that enables the representation of heterogeneous node subproblems as modeling objects with a homogeneous structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structure of human Frizzled5 by fiducial-assisted cryo-EM supports a heterodimeric mechanism of canonical Wnt signaling

Frizzleds (Fzd) are the primary receptors for Wnt morphogens, which are essential regulators of stem cell biology, yet the structural basis of Wnt signaling through Fzd remains poorly understood. Here we report the structure of an unliganded human Fzd5 determined by single-particle cryo-EM at 3.7 Å resolution, with the aid of an antibody chaperone acting as a fiducial marker. We also analyzed the topology of low-resolution XWnt8/Fzd5 complex particles, which revealed extreme flexibility between the Wnt/Fzd-CRD and the Fzd-TM regions. Analysis of Wnt/β-catenin signaling in response to Wnt3a versus a ‘surrogate agonist’ that cross-links Fzd to LRP6, revealed identical structure-activity relationships. Thus, canonical Wnt/β-catenin signaling appears to be principally reliant on ligand-induced Fzd/LRP6 heterodimerization, versus the allosteric mechanisms seen in structurally analogous class A G protein-coupled receptors, and Smoothened. These findings deepen our mechanistic understanding of Wnt signal transduction, and have implications for harnessing Wnt agonism in regenerative medicine.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A 3D helical filament surrogate model for 3D tokamak equilibria

A novel approach for efficient representation of three-dimensional (3D) tokamak equilibria is investigated, where a set of helical current filaments occupying the plasma region are employed to resolve deviations from the two-dimensional (2D) axi-symmetric state. A discrete set of 3D filaments, located at rational surfaces for a given toroidal mode number n and following the 2D equilibrium field lines (thus forming closed current loops), are found to provide a surrogate model of 3D equilibria with reasonable accuracy. Specifically, application of the filament model to 3D perturbed equilibria, due to the resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) in DIII-D and MAST-U discharges, reveals that (1) a single helical filament per rational surface is sufficient; (2) 21 such helical filaments are capable of representing the n = 2 3D response field in MAST-U with less than 10% relative error as compared to that computed by a full magnetohydrodynamic code; (3) optimizing currents (both amplitude and phase) flowing in 3D filaments with fixed geometry, the highest accuracy fitting is found to depend on the characteristics of the 3D equilibria such as the coil current phasing of the RMP coils in our case studies. Here, whis filament approach is also applicable for generating surrogate models of other type of 3D tokamak equilibria, including those during the initial phase of the plasma disruption.

MARS-F↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ground Heat Flux Reconstruction Using Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Machinery and Surrogate Modeling

Ground heat flux (G 0 ) is a key component of the land-surface energy balance of high-latitude regions. Despite its crucial role in controlling permafrost degradation due to global warming, G 0 is sparsely measured and not well represented in the outputs of global scale model simulation. In this study, an analytical heat transfer model is tested to reconstruct G 0 across seasons using soil temperature series from field measurements, Global Climate Model, and climate reanalysis outputs. The probability density functions of ground heat flux and of model parameters are inferred using available G 0 data (measured or modeled) for snow-free period as a reference. When observed G 0 is not available, a numerical model is applied using estimates of surface heat flux (dependent on parameters) as the top boundary condition. These estimates (and thus the corresponding parameters) are verified by comparing the distributions of simulated and measured soil temperature at several depths. Aided by state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, the developed G 0 reconstruction approach provides novel means for assessing the probabilistic structure of the ground heat flux for regional permafrost change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Can classical DEM simultaneously capture compressibility and flowability of milled biomass?

Accurate prediction of the rheological behavior of biomass is essential for the design and operation of hoppers, feeders, and storage systems in biorefineries. This study examines whether the classical, coarse-grained discrete element method (DEM) formulation can simultaneously reproduce the compressibility and flowability of milled herbaceous biomass, using Miscanthus × giganteus as a representative material. The model represents particles as rigid spheres interacting through Hertz-Mindlin elastic-frictional contacts augmented with an area-dependent cohesion term. Laboratory cyclic compression and wedge-shaped hopper discharge experiments were used as calibration benchmarks. Although the model can independently reproduce each behavior by appropriately tuning particle Young's modulus E and cohesion energy density k, an extensive parametric investigation comprising more than 600 simulations reveals that the optimal parameter regions for compression and hopper flow are distinct and non-overlapping in (E, k) space. Surrogate surface analysis further shows that the corresponding objective-function valleys exhibit similar trends but are approximately parallel and spatially offset, precluding a unified calibration within the explored domain. Sensitivity analysis indicates that compressibility is governed predominantly by stiffness and cohesion, whereas the slope of the mass flow rate-opening relation in hopper discharge is primarily controlled by tangential friction. Extensions incorporating particle size distribution and clumped-sphere representations do not eliminate the incompatibility. These results systematically reveal, for the first time, the structural limitation of simplified DEM formulations in representing biomass rheological behavior, underscoring the necessity for models incorporating additional physical mechanisms, such as particle deformability or enhanced interlocking, to achieve unified predictive capability for biomass handling behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization with Neural Network Feasibility Surrogates: Formulations and Application to Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow

In many areas of constrained optimization, representing all possible constraints that give rise to an accurate feasible region can be difficult and computationally prohibitive for online use. Satisfying feasibility constraints becomes more challenging in high-dimensional, non-convex regimes which are common in engineering applications. A prominent example that is explored in the manuscript is the security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) problem, which minimizes power generation costs, while enforcing system feasibility under contingency failures in the transmission network. In its full form, this problem has been modeled as a nonlinear two-stage stochastic programming problem. In this work, we propose a hybrid structure that incorporates and takes advantage of both a high-fidelity physical model and fast machine learning surrogates. Neural network (NN) models have been shown to classify highly non-linear functions and can be trained offline but require large training sets. In this work, we present how model-guided sampling can efficiently create datasets that are highly informative to a NN classifier for non-convex functions. We show how the resultant NN surrogates can be integrated into a non-linear program as smooth, continuous functions to simultaneously optimize the objective function and enforce feasibility using existing non-linear solvers. Overall, this allows us to optimize instances of the SCOPF problem with an order of magnitude CPU improvement over existing methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗