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DOE OSTI2025

Energy and AI: Evaluating Future Grid and Water Stress Due to Data Centers

Projections of the need for new data centers to support Artificial Intelligence (AI) are large but highly uncertain. Recent projections indicate up to a 15% annual growth rate in data center electricity demand within the next 5-10 years. Given that most electric utilities are required to have a reserve margin of roughly the same magnitude as the projected growth in demand, these new data center loads could soon threaten resource adequacy and reliability unless data centers build their own generation, interruptible loads are negotiated, commensurate new capacity and/or transmission is built, or some combination of these options. Similarly, depending on the cooling technology and geographic location of new data centers, they could threaten water adequacy in water scarce regions. This presentation highlights the grid and water implications of new data centers to support AI.

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electric Grid Reliability in an Era of Unprecedented Uncertainty: A Review of Advances in Electric Sector Resource Adequacy Assessment and Planning

Recent changes to the principal causes of energy shortage events on the electric grid have necessitated are thinking of paradigms for resource adequacy (RA) assessment and the related topic of procurement of a reliable portfolio. Prior studies have laid out elements of a modern paradigm for these planning activities, but there does not exist a comprehensive overview of the topic spanning academic and gray literature, and the relationship of these suggested paradigms to methods used in industry has also not been surveyed. In this paper we review recent literature establishing best practices for RA assessment and reliable portfolio procurement, and survey current practices used in industry in relation to these best practices. We establish seven key best practices for RA assessment, cover a modern methodology for capacity accreditation, and find that industry practices are not far behind the identified best practices, though some key gaps remain. We also present a suggested agenda for both academic research on the topic and opportunities for advancement in the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of a 600MW Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant using the Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool

This paper presents a techno-economic evaluation of the proposed 600 MW, 8-hour Craig – Hayden pumped storage hydropower project using the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool. The analysis integrates plant technical characteristics, regional grid conditions, and market-based operating assumptions to quantify stacked value streams from energy arbitrage, capacity, ancillary services, transmission congestion relief, and reliability. Both price taker and price influencer frameworks are applied to examine the impact of market participation and system interactions on lifecycle economic performance using Benefit - Cost Analysis and Multi - Criteria Decision Analysis. The results show that the price taker approach provides higher revenue estimates based on exogenous price signals, while the price influencer approach captures production cost savings, renewable curtailment reduction, and market price formation, yielding more conservative but system-representative outcomes. The study demonstrates the strategic value of long-duration PSH for enhancing operational flexibility, resource adequacy, and grid reliability in a high-renewable Western Interconnection.

Bhattacharyya, Arjun [ORNL] (ORCID:000900060976046↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 6. Renewable Energy Investments and Operations

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter explores pathways to 100% renewable electricity, describing the types of generation resources added, their costs, and how the systems maintain sufficient resources to serve customer demand, including resource adequacy and transmission reliability.

100% Renewable↗

DOE OSTI2025

Congestion Management Solutions for Enhanced Distribution System Operations with Aggregated Distribution Grid Resources Providing Grid Services and Market Participation

Microgrids and other aggregations of distribution grid resources (DGRs) are poised to actively participate in electricity markets and provide essential grid services in the coming years. In fact, DGRs already play such a role through behind-the-meter (BTM) demand response programs and small-scale BTM dispatchable generation initiatives. At the same time, the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency datacenters imposes significant, often unpredictable, demands on the power distribution system. Aggregated DGRs can serve as flexible resources that help mitigate these pressures by using available transmission and distribution capacity more efficiently, supporting resource adequacy and other reliability services, and providing bridge strategies while long-term transmission infrastructure is being developed. The impacts this activity will have on distribution networks are not fully understood and could present significant challenges for distribution utilities due to capacity constraints and the need for congestion management. Technical issues include reverse power flow, variability and possible degradation of equipment integrity, voltage violations, and customer power quality concerns. These issues will likely intensify as electricity market operators across the United States implement Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order 2222 over the next few years.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

DOE OSTI2020

2020 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

The study looks at the evolution of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market across the last decade to provide an understanding of how the market arrived at its current condition. In addition, the study examines four scenarios and utilizes probabilistic dispatch analysis to assess the potential for resource adequacy and reliability concerns under those scenarios. The study finds that under three of the four scenarios, the region will see an increased risk for Energy Emergency Alerts and need for emergency operator actions to ensure the reliable delivery of electricity to the more than 25 million people who ERCOT serves.

2020↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resource Adequacy for State Utility Regulators: Current Practices and Emerging Reforms

This report was developed by staff in the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) Center for Partnerships and Innovation (CPI). Additional support was provided from commissioners, commission staff, and other technical experts to provide foundational information for state utility regulators on the evolving nature of resource adequacy for the electric system. With the changing nature of the system, state commissioners will continue to play a vital role in their respective jurisdictions. Their roles in overseeing resource decisions are growing in complexity, with consideration for customer costs, state and federal environmental requirements, extreme weather events, fuel supply limitations, generation retirements, shifting requirements for system operators, and growing levels of intermittent and energy-limited resources (e.g., wind, solar, and battery storage). Reliability concerns continue to be an urgent and immediate priority for utility regulators in most parts of the United States. The information in this report is designed to support state commissioners and their respective staff members as they navigate an evolving resource adequacy landscape to maintain reliability amidst a rapidly changing system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Resource Adequacy and Community Impacts of an Evolving Grid: Considerations for State Regulators

As U.S. power systems continue to decarbonize, state regulators must be able to broadly assess the cost and reliability implications of proposed fossil retirements and the corresponding resources that are coming online to replace them. Specifically, regulators must evaluate whether proposed infrastructure investments are sufficient to ensure the long-term reliability of the system, while also protecting rate payers by ensuring that such investments are necessary and not excessive. Broadly speaking, this objective is typically framed in terms of maintaining long-term resource adequacy at the lowest cost, while also ensuring that other social and/or environmental objectives are satisfied. System planners currently have a host of sophisticated analytical tools at their disposal to evaluate the cost-benefit trade-offs of different approaches to ensuring resource adequacy. However, most of these tools and associated metrics were designed with traditional power systems in mind. Over the past decade, it has become increasingly clear that the metrics and models that have reliably assessed resource adequacy in systems dominated by large thermal and hydropower resources will be insufficient for systems with significant contributions from emerging technologies such as wind, solar and storage. Therefore, in recent years many new metrics and modeling approaches have been developed, and are increasingly being implemented, to meet the needs of the clean energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit

Reliable long-term resource adequacy and grid planning in Hawaii require precise, multi-decadal meteorological records. This paper introduces the Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit, a 26-year (2000-2025) high-fidelity atmospheric dataset developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). We present a validation study of the underlying WRF model configurations, comparing the legacy MYNN PBL scheme against an alternative YSU formulation. Using vertical lidar profiles and surface buoy data, our analysis identified a foundational geometric distortion in the legacy NOW-23 Hawaii dataset caused by an incorrect grid projection. When evaluated on a corrected, zero-distortion grid, the YSU scheme demonstrated superior performance in bias and cRMSE compared to the legacy setup. To address these findings, the MET Toolkit has been re-produced as a unified 26-year record using the optimized YSU setup and corrected geometry. This dataset offers the Hawaii power sector a robust, validated, and homogenous reference for future grid resilience and energy integration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Risk in an Uncertain Future: The Evolution of Resource Adequacy

As our power grids transition toward a decarbonized energy mix, ensuring reliability and provision of grid services remains paramount. The power system has always been heavily influenced by the weather - extreme temperatures determine the timing of peak demand, winter cold snaps can limit natural gas supply, gas turbine reliability and output are affected by ambient conditions, and hydro output varies seasonally and annually. However, as the grid increasingly relies on variable renewable energy (VRE), like wind and solar, the attention to reliability and weather conditions is increasingly important. The implications of changing reliability are large. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) rolling blackouts from earlier this year impacted millions of people across the state and could be seen from space (Figure 1).

hydraulic turbines↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

ASEAN Technical Exchange Workshop for System Operators, Regulators, and Policymakers

This presentation provides an in-depth exploration of power system planning, cross-border electricity trading, and battery energy storage systems (BESS), offering actionable insights for system operators, regulators, and policymakers. The first section delves into power system planning and analysis, focusing on capacity expansion models and resource adequacy studies, including their role in optimizing system efficiency, managing emissions, and addressing system reliability risks. Key considerations, such as integration of transmission into generation planning and the forecasting versus optimization of customer distributed energy resources (DER) technologies, are explored. The session highlights critical trade-offs in spatial granularity and model runtimes, as well as the feasibility of aligning distribution investments with capacity expansion efforts. The second section examines cross-border electricity trading, with an emphasis on resource adequacy concepts such as reliability targets, loss of load expectation (LOLE), and planning reserve margins (PRM). Case studies on reserve market design and coordination across US regions provide insights into improving reserve deliverability and managing interregional power balance and congestion. This section also addresses market-to-market congestion management, including advanced strategies for high-voltage direct current (HVDC) optimization and ancillary service delivery. Finally, the presentation covers the rapid evolution of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), highlighting their operational growth, regulatory frameworks, and use cases in grid flexibility, energy storage, and reliability. The discussion focuses on the benefits of BESS for system stability, resilience, and integration of renewable energy, offering insights into its role as a vital component in the transition toward a more sustainable and flexible grid. Key performance parameters, such as throughput, round-trip efficiency, and state of charge, are also examined.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study

The Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study (AOSWTS) is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) efforts to understand and facilitate the transmission of electricity from wind in the Atlantic Ocean. It was informed by the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Literature Review and Gaps Analysis (Bothwell et al. 2021) and the convening workshops hosted in 2022-2023 by DOE and the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The study results help to inform An Action Plan for Offshore Wind Transmission Development in the U.S. Atlantic Region (Baker et al. 2023). DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office funded AOSWTS. The AOSWTS identifies and evaluates pathways to enable offshore wind energy deployment in the Atlantic Ocean through coordinated offshore transmission solutions in the near term (by 2030) and long term (by 2050). The study fills gaps in prior analyses by providing a multiregional planning perspective that evaluates offshore wind generation development with transmission planning. It incorporates environmental, ocean co-use, and other siting considerations into defining potential offshore transmission routes. The study also compares different multiregional offshore transmission topologies and their associated costs (using potential cable routes) and benefits (in terms of production cost savings and enhanced resource adequacy). In addition, the AOSWTS analyzes reliability impacts from a multiregional perspective. The study provides guidance for policymakers and transmission stakeholders on possible outcomes resulting from a proactive, coordinated, and interregional approach to transmission planning for offshore wind energy development in the Atlantic. While this study presents possibilities, additional work following system operator methods and procedures can help build on this analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study: Executive Summary

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maintaining Grid Reliability: Lessons From Renewable Integration Studies

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other organizations have sponsored numerous research studies over the last two decades to examine the effect of increased wind and solar deployment on grid reliability, including a number of studies that examine grids deriving more than 50% of annual energy from wind and solar. In this report, we discuss key findings from both the research body of knowledge and real-world practice related to grid reliability, and we demonstrate how to plan for and achieve continued reliability in the future as wind and solar deployment increase.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Explained: Reliability of the Current Power Grid

Maintaining reliability of the bulk power system, which supplies and transmits electricity, is a constant focus of electric grid planners, operators, and regulators. Based on the standards set by power system reliability entities, the U.S. grid has been and continues to be very reliable. Over the past decade the average U.S. customer has only experienced about 15 minutes of outages per year due to supply limitations, with most of those outages occurring due to failures on the distribution system. However, there have been a few notable incidents in recent years tied to extreme weather events. The fact sheet provides and introduction to reliability of the bulk power system in the U.S.

power grid↗