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DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility Analyses for the Microgrid of the Mountain in the Cordillera Central Region of Puerto Rico

Distributed energy resource (DER) development can benefit communities through improvement of access to reliable electricity and a resilient energy system. Many place-specific considerations must be accounted for when designing electrical systems with co-located generation and loads. This paper presents an overview of four studies focusing on different aspects for regional DER development in the Cordillera Central region of Puerto Rico, including a grid and load stability study with the introduction of solar energy generation, microgrid design based on the solar resource in the area, resilience considerations during power outage scenarios, and qualitative risk aspects for components in the microgrid. Additionally, a conceptual substation microgrid analysis is conducted using the Microgrid Design Toolkit (MDT) to evaluate trade-offs between cost and energy availability, providing insights into optimal design strategies. A microgrid resilience assessment is performed using the Resilient Nodal Cluster Analysis Tool (ReNCAT) to identify critical loads and evaluates their accessibility during outages, emphasizing the importance of community needs. Finally, a qualitative risk assessment utilizing Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP) methods highlights potential hazards and mitigations for microgrid components, ensuring robust system design and operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Metrics Framework for Solar Photovoltaics

This presentation was given at the Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) 54 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are routinely exposed to extreme weather, including wind and hail storms. Historically, most systems have proven to be resilient to such events, but some storms have damaged PV systems, leading to physical and financial loss. Storm hardening measures and specific system attributes can reduce this risk. This work introduces a set of resilience metrics and a framework for quantifying, comparing, and predicting PV system resilience. The framework is divided into two parts: 1) predictive, attribute metrics based on site and component characteristics, and 2) impact metrics that assess post-storm performance. Metrics are weighted and aggregated, producing hazard-specific resilience scores. We derive damage functions from storm-impacted PV systems, establishing a baseline against which post-storm performance can be compared. This damage was widely variable across hail and wind intensities, and field hail damage was less than predicted by laboratory tests, suggesting that system features - in addition to storm conditions - influence damage likelihood. Finally, the metrics framework is demonstrated using three case studies of storm damaged PV systems. Although additional data are needed to create attribute specific damage functions and establish metric weights, this study presents a methodology for evaluating PV resilience and contributes new damage functions to the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hysteresis-Free Nanoparticle-Reinforced Hydrogels

The elastic storage and release of mechanical energy has been key to many developments throughout the history of mankind. Resilience, absent hysteresis, has been an elusive goal to achieve, particularly at large deformations. Using a low-crosslink-density polyacrylamide hydrogel at 96% water content having hyperbranched silica nanoparticles (HBSPs) as the major junction points, a hysteresis-free material is realized. The fatigue-free characteristic of these composite hydrogels is evidenced by the invariance of the stress–strain curves at strain ratios of 4, even after 5000 cycles. At a strain ratio of 7, only a 1.3% hysteresis is observed. A markedly increased strain-ratio-at-break of 11.5 is observed. Finally, the unique attributes of these resilient hydrogels are manifested in the high-fidelity detection of dynamic deformations under cyclic loading over a broad range of frequencies, difficult to achieve with other materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Colorado Residential Resiliency and Managed Charging

Validate and model impacts of electric vehicle (EV) home charging on service transformers; analyze diverse grid locations and configurations to determine 'risk factors'; finalize/deliver new design tools and typical EV load curves; improve/issue new construction standards for transformers, secondaries, and services. To ensure residential charging equity, smart charge management strategies will be studied and analyzed with the goal of creating affordable demand charges for customers.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered By ERAD [Slides]

Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Power System (ERAD) is a free, open-source Python toolkit for estimating the energy and service impacts of hazards like earthquakes and flooding. It uses a graph-based approach to capture high resolution connectivity among the grid, critical services, and customers and rapidly compute household level metrics and aggregated statistics across large distribution systems. It uses asset fragility curves that relate hazard severity to survival probability for power system equipment including cables, transformers, substations, etc. The tool is designed to be modular and extensible, allowing it to interface with third-party hazard simulators and integrate into broader resilience analysis workflows. ERAD enables researchers, students, communities, distribution utilities, and other stakeholders to understand hazard impacts and evaluate the effectiveness of different programs to improve energy resilience. The webinar was hosted by NLR researcher Aadil Latif.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations

The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.

Intensity-duration-frequency curves↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Sizing of Movable Energy Resources for Enhanced Resilience in Distribution Systems: A Techno-Economic Analysis

This article introduces a techno-economic analysis aimed at identifying the optimal total size of movable energy resources (MERs) to enhance the resilience of electric power supply. The core focus of this approach is to determine the total size of MERs required within the distribution network to expedite restoration after extreme events. Leveraging distribution line fragility curves, the proposed methodology generates numerous line outage scenarios, with scenario reduction techniques employed to minimize computational burden. For each reduced multiple line outage scenario, a systematic reconfiguration of the distribution network, represented as a graph, is executed using tie-switches within the system. To evaluate each locational combination of MERs for a specific number of these resources, the expected load curtailment (ELC) is calculated by summing the load curtailment within microgrids formed due to multiple line outages. This process is repeated for all possible locational combinations of MERs to determine minimal ELC for each MER total size. For every MER total size, the minimal ELCs are determined. Finally, a techno-economic analysis is performed using power outage cost and investment cost of MERs to pinpoint an optimal total size of MERs for the distribution system. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, case studies are conducted on the 33-node and the modified IEEE 123-node distribution test systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Drought adaptation index (DAI) based on BLUP as a selection approach for drought-resilient switchgrass germplasm

This study introduces a Drought Adaptation Index (DAI), derived from Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP), as a method to assess drought resilience in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). A panel of 404 genotypes was evaluated under drought-stressed (CV) and well-watered (UC) conditions over four consecutive years (2019–2022). BLUP-estimated biomass yields were used to calculate the DAI, which enabled classification of genotypes into four adaptation groups: very well-adapted, well-adapted, adapted, and unadapted. The DAI was compared with conventional drought tolerance indices, including the Stress Susceptibility Index (SSI), Stress Tolerance Index (STI), Geometric Mean Productivity (GMP), and Yield Stability Index (YSI). Correlation analyses demonstrated strong agreement between DAI and these indices, supporting its validity and consistency. Biplot analyses using the Genotype plus Genotype-by-Environment Interaction (GGE) and Additive Main Effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) models revealed significant genotype-by-environment interactions (GEI) and identified J222.A, J463.A, and J295.A. A as high-performing genotypes, with J222.A exhibiting greater yield stability across treatments and years. Additionally, DAI isoline curves provided a graphical representation of differential genotype performance under drought and control conditions. These visualizations aided in distinguishing genotypes with stable and superior biomass yield across contrasting environments. Overall, the BLUP-based DAI is a robust and practical selection tool that improves the accuracy of identifying drought-resilient, high-yielding switchgrass genotypes. Its integration into breeding programs offers a comprehensive framework for improving biomass productivity and stress adaptation under variable climatic conditions. The application of DAI supports the development of climate-resilient cultivars and contributes to sustainable bioenergy and forage production systems.

BLUP↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive cold-load pickup considerations in 2-stage microgrid unit commitment for enhancing microgrid resilience

In an extended main grid outage spanning multiple days, load shedding serves as a critical mechanism for islanded microgrids to maintain essential power and energy reserves that are indispensable for fulfilling reliability and resiliency mandates. However, using load shedding for such purposes leads to increasing occurrence of cold load pickup (CLPU) events. Here, this study presents an innovative adaptive CLPU model that introduces a method for determining and incorporating parameters related to CLPU power and energy requirements into a two-stage microgrid unit commitment (MGUC) algorithm. In contrast to the traditional fixed-CLPU-curve approach, this model calculates CLPU duration, power, and energy demands by considering outage durations and ambient temperature variations within the MGUC process. By integrating the adaptive CLPU model into the MGUC problem formulation, it allows for the optimal allocation of energy resources throughout the entire scheduling horizon to fulfill the CLPU requirements when scheduling multiple CLPU events. The performance of the enhanced MGUC algorithm considering CLPU needs is assessed using actual load and photovoltaic (PV) data. Simulation results demonstrate significant improvements in dispatch optimality evaluated by the amount of load served, customer comfort, energy storage operation, and adherence to energy schedules. These enhancements collectively contribute to reliable and resilient microgrid operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solar Photovoltaics Resilient Fasteners Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Tool

Solar photovoltaics (PV) module fasteners are one of the most common structural failure points on PV systems, particularly in high winds and coastal areas with ocean spray. Some fastener types have been shown to survive these conditions at higher rates than others. The fastener type, material, quantity, and placement all impact performance. Fasteners that fail less often typically have a higher upfront cost, but this investment can pay off in savings from less frequent torque audits (which reduces O&M costs), reduced system damage, and decreased system downtime. We developed an Excel-based tool to evaluate different module fasteners for a PV system - either a new or retrofit project - and compare differences in upfront and outyear costs to determine the expected life cycle costs and simple payback periods of different fastener options. The tool is site-specific, with inputs including system attributes (such as system size, location, price of power) and fastener attributes (such as design, washer type, nut type, use of locking hardware, materials, installation time, and torque audit requirements). A baseline fastener scenario can be compared to up to four proposed fastener scenarios. In addition to presenting expected life cycle cost implications of the different fastener options, the tool produces results showing the reductions in outyear costs needed to offset any initial cost premiums for more reliable fasteners across four categories: preventative O&M, avoided damage, reduced downtime, and reduced insurance premiums. These numbers can serve as decision aids for users when considering fastener options on new or existing projects. This poster will present the tool, methodology, and scenarios using example sites to highlight the tool capabilities and how it can inform different fastener decisions on different projects. Future work includes incorporating lifetime expected damage costs by embedding damage function curves that the authors are developing from field data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emergency Asset Positioning for Resilient Transmission Grid Operation

In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency storage assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency storage assets placed prior to an extreme event.

emergency preparedness↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emergency Asset Positioning for Resilient Transmission Grid Operation

In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency generation assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency generation assets placed prior to an extreme event.

emergency preparedness↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emergency Generation Asset Positioning for Resilient Transmission Grid Operation: Preprint

emergency preparedness↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reactive transport modeling for supporting climate resilience at groundwater contamination sites

Abstract. Climate resilience is an emerging issue at contaminated sites and hazardous waste sites, since projected climate shifts (e.g., increased/decreased precipitation) and extreme events (e.g., flooding, drought) could affect ongoing remediation or closure strategies. In this study, we develop a reactive transport model (Amanzi) for radionuclides (uranium, tritium, and others) and evaluate how different scenarios under climate change will influence the contaminant plume conditions and groundwater well concentrations. We demonstrate our approach using a two-dimensional (2D) reactive transport model for the Savannah River Site F-Area, including mineral reaction and sorption processes. Different recharge scenarios are considered by perturbing the infiltration rate from the base case as well as considering cap-failure and climate projection scenarios. We also evaluate the uranium and nitrate concentration ratios between scenarios and the base case to isolate the sorption effects with changing recharge rates. The modeling results indicate that the competing effects of dilution and remobilization significantly influence pH, thus changing the sorption of uranium. At the maximum concentration on the breakthrough curve, higher aqueous uranium concentration implies that sorption is reduced with lower pH due to remobilization. To better evaluate the climate change impacts in the future, we develop the workflow to include the downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate projection data in the reactive transport model and evaluate how residual contamination evolves through 2100 under four climate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The integration of climate modeling data and hydrogeochemistry models enables us to quantify the climate change impacts, assess which impacts need to be planned for, and therefore assist climate resiliency efforts and help guide site management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

High Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse Testing of Photovoltaic Modules

This report details the test setup, process, and results for radiated susceptibility testing of multicrystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules as part of the EMP-Resilient Electric Grid Grand Challenge Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Sandia National Laboratories. Testing was conducted over October 10-17, 2019, where 8 photovoltaic modules were exposed to E1 transient pulses with peak field levels up to 100 kV/m. Modules were terminated in a resistive load representing connected components. State of health testing conducted via I-V curve tracing of the photovoltaic modules showed no observable loss of device function due to large electric field transients. Differential mode currents were measured on the order of 10's of amps for up to a microsecond following the radiated field pulse. Common mode currents took the form of a damped sinusoid with a maximum peak of 10's to 100's of amps with a resonance near 60 MHz.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗