Optimal Subhourly Electricity Resource Dispatch Under Multiple Price Signals With High Renewable Generation Resource Availability
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Chassin, David.↗
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Understanding How Siting Ordinances Impact Wind and Solar Resource Availability
This poster summarizes the wind and solar ordinances collected by NREL in 2018 and in 2022. It demonstrates the impact of those ordinances on land availability through the contiguous United States.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY,↗
Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States. Methodology and Initial Results
This report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, may be defined in several ways. For example, one definition might be expected revenues (based on local market prices) minus generation costs, considered over the expected lifetime of the generation asset. Another definition might be generation costs relative to a benchmark (e.g., a natural gas combined cycle plant) using assumptions of fuel prices, capital cost, and plant efficiency. Economic potential in this report is defined as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity. The assessment is conducted at a high geospatial resolution (more than 150,000 technology-specific sites in the continental United States) to capture the significant variation in local resource, costs, and revenue potential. This metric can be a useful screening factor for understanding the economic viability of renewable generation technologies at a specific location. In contrast to many common estimates of renewable energy potential, economic potential does not consider market dynamics, customer demand, or most policy drivers that may incent renewable energy generation.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States: Methodology and Initial Results
The report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, is defined in this report as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model
Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Statistical Evaluation of Utilization of the ISS
PayLoad Utilization Modeler (PLUM) is a statistical-modeling computer program used to evaluate the effectiveness of utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of the number of research facilities that can be operated within a specified interval of time. PLUM is designed to balance the requirements of research facilities aboard the ISS against the resources available on the ISS. PLUM comprises three parts: an interface for the entry of data on constraints and on required and available resources, a database that stores these data as well as the program output, and a modeler. The modeler comprises two subparts: one that generates tens of thousands of random combinations of research facilities and another that calculates the usage of resources for each of those combinations. The results of these calculations are used to generate graphical and tabular reports to determine which facilities are most likely to be operable on the ISS, to identify which ISS resources are inadequate to satisfy the demands upon them, and to generate other data useful in allocation of and planning of resources.
Andrews, Ross↗
Pathway to Complete Energy Sector Decarbonization with Available Iridium Resources using Ultralow Loaded Water Electrolyzers
We present ultralow Ir-loaded (ULL) proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer (PEMWE) cells that can produce enough hydrogen to largely decarbonize the global natural gas, transportation, and electrical storage sectors by 2050, using only half of the annual global Ir production for PEMWE deployment. This represents a significant improvement in PEMWE's global potential, enabled by careful control of the anode catalyst layer (CL), including its mesostructure and catalyst dispersion. Using commercially relevant membranes (Nafion 117), cell materials, electrocatalysts, and fabrication techniques, we achieve at peak a 250× improvement in Ir mass activity over commercial PEMWEs. An optimal Ir loading of 0.011 mg Ir cm -2 operated at an Ir-specific power of ~100 MW kg Ir -1 at a cell potential of ~1.66 V versus RHE (85% higher heating value efficiency). Here, we further evaluate the performance limitations within the ULL regime and offer new insights and guidance in CL design relevant to the broader energy conversion field.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
A function-based approach to cockpit procedure aids
The objective of this research is to develop and test a cockpit procedural aid that can compose and present procedures that are appropriate for the given flight situation. The procedure would indicate the status of the aircraft engineering systems, and the environmental conditions. Prescribed procedures already exist for normal as well as for a number of non-normal and emergency situations, and can be presented to the crew using an interactive cockpit display. However, no procedures are prescribed or recommended for a host of plausible flight situations involving multiple malfunctions compounded by adverse environmental conditions. Under these circumstances, the cockpit procedural aid must review the prescribed procedures for the individual malfunction (when available), evaluate the alternatives or options, and present one or more composite procedures (prioritized or unprioritized) in response to the given situation. A top-down function-based conceptual approach towards composing and presenting cockpit procedures is being investigated. This approach is based upon the thought process that an operating crew must go through while attempting to meet the flight objectives given the current flight situation. In order to accomplish the flight objectives, certain critical functions must be maintained during each phase of the flight, using the appropriate procedures or success paths. The viability of these procedures depends upon the availability of required resources. If resources available are not sufficient to meet the requirements, alternative procedures (success paths) using the available resources must be constructed to maintain the critical functions and the corresponding objectives. If no success path exists that can satisfy the critical functions/objectives, then the next level of critical functions/objectives must be selected and the process repeated. Information is given in viewgraph form.
Phatak, Anil V.↗
Large birds travel farther in homogeneous environments
Not provided.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Water Impacts of High Solar PV Electricity Penetration
This analysis provides a detailed national and regional description of the water-related impacts and constraints of high solar electricity penetration scenarios in the U.S. in 2030 and 2050. A modified version of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that incorporates water resource availability and costs as a constraint in each of its 134 Balancing Area (BA) regions was utilized to explore national and regional differences in water use impacts and solar deployment locations under different solar energy cost and water availability scenarios (Macknick et al. 2015). Water resource availability and cost data are from recently completed research at Sandia National Laboratories (Tidwell et al. 2013a). Scenarios analyzed include two business-as-usual solar energy cost cases, one with and one without considering available water resources, and four solar energy cost cases that meet the SunShot cost goals (i.e., $1/watt for utility-scale PV systems), with varying levels of water availability restrictions. This analysis provides insight into the role solar energy technologies have in the broader electricity sector under scenarios of water constraints.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Implications of water constraints on electricity capacity expansion in the United States
The development of new electricity generation capacity is constrained by water resource availability. However, the sufficiency of available water resources is rarely incorporated into the planning of electricity capacity expansion in the United States. Previous studies on the implications of water constraints on US electricity generation are limited in terms of scale and robustness. Here, we extend previous studies by including physical water constraints within a state-level model of the US energy system embedded within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) that integrates both supply and demand effects under a consistent framework. We show that water constraints have two general effects across the United States: (1) to increase the cost of electricity generation, which results in slightly reduced electrification of end-use sectors, and (2) to incentivize early retirement of water-intensive technologies before the end of their designed lifetimes, while simultaneously boosting investment in less water-dependent technologies. Our results suggest that water availability constraints may cause substantial capital stock turnover and result in non-negligible economic costs for the western United States, whereas fewer impacts may be anticipated in the eastern United States. Our work emphasizes the need to integrate water availability constraints into electricity capacity planning and highlights the state-level challenges to facilitate regional strategic resource planning.
Liu, Lu↗
A new architecture for fast ultrasound imaging
Some ultrasound imaging applications require high frame rate, for example 3D imaging and automated inspections of large components. Being the signal-processing throughput of the system the main bottleneck, parallel beamforming is required to achieve hundreds to thousands of images per second. Simultaneous A-scan line beamforming in all active channels is required to reach the intended high frame rate. To this purpose, a new parallel beamforming architecture that exploits the currently available processing resources available in state-of-the-art FPGAs is proposed. The work aims to get the optimal resource usage, high scalability and flexibility for different applications. To achieve these goals, the basic beamforming function is reformulated to be adapted to the DSP-cell architecture of state-of-the-art FPGAs. This allows performing simultaneous dynamic focusing on multiple A-scan lines. Some realistic examples are analyzed, evaluating resource requirements and maximum operating frequency. For example, a 128-channel system, with 128 scan lines and acquiring at 20 MSPS, can be built with 4 mid-range FPGAs, achieving up to 18000 frames per second, just limited by the maximum PRF. The gold standard Synthetic Transmit Aperture method (also called Total Focusing Method) can be carried out in real time at a processing rate of 140 high-resolution images per second (16 cm depth on steel)
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Land Access Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios
Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including access to land. Activities required for accessing land, such as environmental review and private and public leasing can take a considerable amount of time and can delay or prevent project development. This paper discusses the impacts to available geothermal resources and deployment caused by land access challenges, including tribal and cultural resources, environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land ownership, federal and state lease queues, and proximity to military installations. In this analysis, we identified challenges that have the potential to prevent development of identified and undiscovered hydrothermal geothermal resources. We found that an estimated 400 MW of identified geothermal resource potential and 4,000 MW of undiscovered geothermal resource potential were either unallowed for development or contained one or more significant barriers that could prevent development at the site. Potential improvement scenarios that could be employed to overcome these barriers include (1) providing continuous funding to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) for processing geothermal leases and permit applications and (2) the creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures. The model results forecast that continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 80 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 124 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures coupled with continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 97 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 152 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The small impact on potential deployment in these improvement scenarios suggests that these 4,400 MW have other barriers to development in addition to land access. In other words, simply making more resources available for development does not increase deployment; however, impacts to deployment could increase when coupled with other improvements (e.g., permitting, market and/or technology improvements).
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Lessons in Nuclear Safety, Panel on Integration of People and Programs
Four slides present a historical perspective on the evolution of nuclear safety, a description of systemic misalignment (available resources do not match expectations, demographic cliff developing, promulgation of increased expectations and new requirements proceeds unabated), and needs facing nuclear safety (financial stability, operational stability, and succession planning). The following conclusions are stated under the heading "Nuclear Safety - 'The System'": the current universe of requirements is too large for the resource pool available; the current universe of requirements has too many different sources of interpretation; there are so many indicators that it’s hard to know what is leading (or important); and the net result can come to defy integrated comprehension at the worker level.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO 2 -emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Reliable and Efficient Distributed Checkpointing System for Grid Environments
In Fine-Grained Cycle Sharing (FGCS) systems, machine owners voluntarily share their unused CPU cycles with guest jobs, as long as their performance degradation is tolerable. However, unpredictable evictions of guest jobs lead to fluctuating completion times. Checkpoint-recovery is an attractive mechanism for recovering from such “failures”. Today’s FGCS systems often use expensive, high-performance dedicated checkpoint servers. However, in geographically distributed clusters, this may incur high checkpoint transfer latencies. Here we present a distributed checkpointing system called FALCON that uses available disk resources of the FGCS machines as shared checkpoint repositories. However, an unavailable storage host may lead to loss of checkpoint data. Therefore, we model the failures of a storage host and develop a prediction algorithm for choosing reliable checkpoint repositories. We experiment with FALCON in the university-wide Condor testbed at Purdue and show improved and consistent performance for guest jobs in the presence of irregular resource availability.
checkpoint↗
Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene
Archaeological records document a significant expansion of populations from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~23–19 ka) to the early Holocene (EH, ~9 ka) in Eurasia, which is often attributed to the influence of orbital-scale climate changes. Yet, information remains limited concerning the climatic factor(s) which were responsible for conditioning demographic patterns. Here, in this work, we present results from an improved Minimalist Terrestrial Resource Model (MTRM), forced by a transient climate simulation from the LGM to the EH. Simulated potential hunter-gatherer population densities and spatial distributions across Eurasia are supported by observed archaeological sites in Europe and China. In the low latitudes, potential population size change was predominantly controlled by precipitation and its strong influence on plant and animal resources. In the middle-high latitudes, temperature was the dominant driver in influencing potential population size change and animal resource availability. Different regional responses of potential populations to climate change across Eurasia - owing to variations in available food resources between the LGM and EH - provide a better understanding of human dispersal during the Late Pleistocene.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Community Planning for Solar: Defining Realistic Solar Development Options
This guide is designed to aid in assessing community preferences for solar development and financing alternatives. To evaluate community preferences regarding solar, it is necessary to define the range of realistic options for solar development possible in a community, including potential future targets for solar capacity, the mixes of development possible based on the solar resources available, and potential community benefits and solar ownership structures. This guide can help community officials, volunteers, and regional planning agency staff in constructing a realistic suite of options for solar development, based on existing state and local laws, available solar resources and infrastructure, and economic and financial considerations.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗